Jareth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 hours ago, omariqy said: Great page to follow on twitter. The below focuses on the expected goals stat. We really should be right there with Wolves based on our xG. We are definitely underachieving and Derby are massively overachieving. It backs up my view that Derby are not as good as they seem to look. https://twitter.com/EFLStats/status/948327380073971718 Not trying to be a smartypants doom-monger, but, do you think these estimated goals are influenced by Mcormack, Kodjia and Hogan's scoring records of seasons past? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 What he we learnt today then:- Brentford aren't above us We aren't 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 any team in that top pack now (including us) is capable of going on a 4 game loosing streak ......but stay in contention ! I noticed this last season - nearly every team had a dire run - I think its the frequency of the games - if you have key players out they can miss 10 games - whilst only being out for a month. I don't know if its been said but I thought the fireworks at the start of the Bristol game was a great move - it created a big game , daunting atmosphere - If we are still in with a shout come April there will be close to 40k gates - that's gotta help us in the big home games.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said: OK so we got 7 points from the first 7 games (21 points) which is relegation form. We then got it together and managed a staggering 28 points from 12 games (36 points) which is title winning form! Then injuries kicked in and the opposition got tougher and we managed a measly 3 points from 5 games (15 points). Poor form which could have continued and extended to a further 2 tough games but instead we won them both so ended December with 9 from a possible 21 which is more respectable albeit still poor. So lets say we are getting over injuries and confidence is returning. Along with a couple of signing we could see another run like the one which got us 28 points from a possible 36. Do that are we are right in there for automatic promotion. So as is stands as difficult as this season and the football has been to stomach at times we're right in the for 2nd place!! Only Wolves are currently meeting the magical 2 points a game you need for automatic promotion. So its feasible that an average less than that could still have a team finishing 2nd. Not just feasible - no team has even needed 92 points to finish 2nd and usually 87 is enough . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastie Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Stevo985 said: A lot of people said, myself included, that the battle wasn't with Cardiff and Sheffield Utd. As good a job as they're doing, they were always likely to fall away as the season went on. It's why the shouts of how "Sheffield Utd being 2nd shows how much better we should be doing" didn't really mean anything unless the season ended in November. I’d add bristol city to those as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted January 3, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Eastie said: I’d add bristol city to those as well Yep, I'd agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 What is this expected goals shit? Seen it on MoTD lately, is it just someone sticking a finger in the air or is it a computer simulated prediction?! Either way, it means nothing, if football was predictable we'd all be millionaires every weekend at the bookies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Jareth said: Not trying to be a smartypants doom-monger, but, do you think these estimated goals are influenced by Mcormack, Kodjia and Hogan's scoring records of seasons past? No - I think it's based on chances created and where those chances are on the pitch. Something like this: If someone shoots from the corner of the box the chance of them scoring is, say, 10% so if we have a shot from there the xG is 0.1. When someone gets a tap in from 2m out they score 95% of the time, so the xG is 0.95. Add all those up in a game and you get the xG for each team in a match regardless of what happened IRL. The stats are from 1000s of games - Opta or the like. From our graph - we are a bit crap at finishing, but are creating enough good chances that on average we should be putting away more of. Or at least more than the teams we've played. Edited January 3, 2018 by rubberman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: What is this expected goals shit? Seen it on MoTD lately, is it just someone sticking a finger in the air or is it a computer simulated prediction?! Either way, it means nothing, if football was predictable we'd all be millionaires every weekend at the bookies. Yep, sometimes it goes in and sometimes it doesn't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penguin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Jareth said: Not trying to be a smartypants doom-monger, but, do you think these estimated goals are influenced by Mcormack, Kodjia and Hogan's scoring records of seasons past? Nope. Expected goals is calculated by assigning each shot a probability of scoring based on numerous factors such as: shot positioning, proximity of defenders, whether it was a counter attack etc. There are a number of factors that can be taken into account, there are a number of slight variants on the model, but those will traditionally make up the backbone. The shot is then compared to historical data of the League to calculate the probability. Everything is compared to the League average, the individual player taking the shot and their individual totals have no bearing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, penguin said: Nope. Expected goals is calculated by assigning each shot a probability of scoring based on numerous factors such as: shot positioning, proximity of defenders, whether it was a counter attack etc. There are a number of factors that can be taken into account, there are a number of slight variants on the model, but those will traditionally make up the backbone. The shot is then compared to historical data of the League to calculate the probability. Everything is compared to the League average, the individual player taking the shot and their individual totals have no bearing. It's an interesting stat. Suggests we are a fit kodjia away from sitting in 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It's actually been quite accurate in predicting where a team will finish by the end of the season. Obviously it's just a stat and they always have limitations. Just interesting to see how teams are doing as it's very difficult to over achieve or under achieve throughout the whole season. Generally you end up near your xG line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penguin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 (edited) This site is worth a look if your into stats: https://experimental361.com/category/divisions/championship/ Would suggest we are about where we should be in terms of taking the chances we create. (Based simply on shots) Blues though.. lol Edited January 3, 2018 by penguin Clarifying 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 20 minutes ago, DCJonah said: Yep, sometimes it goes in and sometimes it doesn't. Just another to add to the long list of ignored users, cheerio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, penguin said: This site is worth a look if your into stats: https://experimental361.com/category/divisions/championship/ Would suggest we are about where we should be in terms of taking the chances we create. (Based simply on shots) Blues though.. lol Good way to describe Brentford. Energetically wasteful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, DCJonah said: It's an interesting stat. Suggests we are a fit kodjia away from sitting in 2nd. If Hogan finds his form or we sign a good striker then we have every chance of 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 26 minutes ago, rubberman said: No - I think it's based on chances created and where those chances are on the pitch. Something like this: If someone shoots from the corner of the box the chance of them scoring is, say, 10% so if we have a shot from there the xG is 0.1. When someone gets a tap in from 2m out they score 95% of the time, so the xG is 0.95. Add all those up in a game and you get the xG for each team in a match regardless of what happened IRL. The stats are from 1000s of games - Opta or the like. From our graph - we are a bit crap at finishing, but are creating enough good chances that on average we should be putting away more of. Or at least more than the teams we've played. Thats fits in with my opinion - somewhat against the flow on here - That our strikers are the problem - we create chances but miss them. So we need :- 1.A new Striker 2.Hogan to find some form 3.The Kjodia of last season to get fit and hit the ground running I think we will get 1.......I can't make up my mind on which is the most likely out of 2 or 3. Much as I have slated him - I would love hogan to come good - whilst Kjodia was free scoring last season, literally no one else in the team was - going back to kjodia only goals won't be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, hippo said: Thats fits in with my opinion - somewhat against the flow on here - That our strikers are the problem - we create chances but miss them. So we need :- 1.A new Striker 2.Hogan to find some form 3.The Kjodia of last season to get fit and hit the ground running I think we will get 1.......I can't make up my mind on which is the most likely out of 2 or 3. Much as I have slated him - I would love hogan to come good - whilst Kjodia was free scoring last season, literally no one else in the team was - going back to kjodia only goals won't be enough. Indeed. 4 out of 38 league goals have come from forwards - 2 for Davis, 1 for Hogan and 1 for Gabby. The midfield have been doing well for us, but if we added a goal scoring forward - Hogan in form or a new loan seem most likely, or possibly RHM - that would transform us. Davis seems a bit 'Heskey' so I'm not sure we'll ever see a prolific season from him, despite what he adds to the team in more general play. Doesn't sound like we'll see Kodjia back for much of this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 15 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said: They don't look all that on paper but they keep picking up the points. Surprised at this...plenty of experience in Davies, Huddlestone (two promotions with Hull and borderline premier league players) and Joe Ledley was a great pick up for them as it seems they've hardly lost since he joined (he does a similar job to Jedinak). Upfront they have Tom Lawrence who was great for Ipswich last season and is scoring a few for Wales, Weimann who know has a manager who rates him so should be a decent player at this level and they can pick from Chris Martin, Winnall and Nugent as the experienced striker, all got proven records in the championship. In terms of ability they've easily got a top 6 squad. Also in terms of wage bill. Darren Bent is still on their payroll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Surprised at this...plenty of experience in Davies, Huddlestone (two promotions with Hull and borderline premier league players) and Joe Ledley was a great pick up for them as it seems they've hardly lost since he joined (he does a similar job to Jedinak). Upfront they have Tom Lawrence who was great for Ipswich last season and is scoring a few for Wales, Weimann who know has a manager who rates him so should be a decent player at this level and they can pick from Chris Martin, Winnall and Nugent as the experienced striker, all got proven records in the championship. In terms of ability they've easily got a top 6 squad. Also in terms of wage bill. Darren Bent is still on their payroll. You're also forgetting Vydra who's on fire for them right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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