chrisp65 Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 Just now, tonyh29 said: Ah ok , i don’t click on twitter stuff so just took the picture and the date stamp to be something that was supposed to have happened today No probs, and without making it a big deal, it does kind of illustrate the problem. Any wizards sleeve waving a pasty or writing shite on a bus can get the message out there and millions will decide if it's true without any research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 19 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: No probs, and without making it a big deal, it does kind of illustrate the problem. Any wizards sleeve waving a pasty or writing shite on a bus can get the message out there and millions will decide if it's true without any research. Tbf I was deciding it wasn’t true but i agree with your general point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenjiOgiwara Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 Brexit is seriously starting to bore me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 The fact that this thread has been filled with new faces posting over the last 24 hours interests me; seems to back up the theory that a lot of people have 'switched on' over the last 24-48 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 31, 2019 Moderator Share Posted March 31, 2019 38 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: The fact that this thread has been filled with new faces posting over the last 24 hours interests me; seems to back up the theory that a lot of people have 'switched on' over the last 24-48 hours or so. Has it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, bickster said: Has it? No. That was my impression, but looking back I see that it's actually just a couple of people. Please feel free to delete these posts. I'm not at my best tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 I did think hold on has word been posted that this thread exists in on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 31, 2019 Moderator Share Posted March 31, 2019 Well there's your bus gone up in smoke 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a m ole Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 39 minutes ago, bickster said: Well there's your bus gone up in smoke poetry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 (edited) 10 hours ago, bickster said: Well there's your bus gone up in smoke The key word being “estimate” Surprised that anyone would accept without question estimates from a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work ... imagine if the BBC had produced this estimate it would probably get its own thread about its bias All of Europe’s economies have been stop start the past few years , it would be interesting to see them perform the same model on other European economies Edited March 31, 2019 by tonyh29 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 CER: Quote The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 (edited) If anyone is actually interested in the methodology used by the CER in their calculations then it's all available on their website. Here is part of it (from their June 2018 report) : Quote The basic aim of the CER’s cost of Brexit model is simple: to compare the ‘real’ UK to a UK that did not vote to leave the EU. We use data from other advanced economies to create a ‘synthetic’ UK that did not vote to leave the EU. To do this, we use a computer program to select – from a group of 22 advanced economies – those countries whose economic characteristics closely match the UK in the run-up to the Brexit referendum. It then combines them to form a doppelgänger UK. The program continues to chart how the UK doppelgänger did after the referendum – and we can then compare its performance to the real UK data. The CER’s synthetic UK is constructed using quarterly real GDP data and other economic indicators from the 22 advanced economies starting in the first quarter of 2009. The countries the program has selected include the US (whose growth rate makes up 50 per cent of that of the UK doppelgänger), Germany (28 per cent), Luxembourg (11 per cent), Iceland (10 per cent) and Greece (2 per cent). ... Some caveats are in order. First, the 2.5 per cent gap is a central estimate with a margin of error. On average, our doppelgänger deviates from the real UK by 0.26 percentage points in any given year. Second, the group of countries that make up the UK doppelgänger matches the UK closely up to the referendum, but we cannot rule out a positive ‘shock’ to some of the countries included – such as a surge in global demand for their exports – which the UK would not have enjoyed even if it had voted for Remain. That said, it is hard to say what growth the UK might have missed out on, given the broad-based global upswing in 2017. And our method is better than a method that compares UK performance before the referendum to its growth rate after it, since that takes no account of the fact that most economies were growing faster in 2017 than their pre-crisis trend, and one would expect the UK to be participating in that faster growth. One way to sanity-check our estimate is to compare the UK’s growth to that of other comparable countries since the referendum. The UK has grown by 3.1 per cent over that period. Compare that to the average of the 22 most advanced economies: 5.2 per cent – which amounts to a 2.1 per cent gap, not far from our estimate of the cost of Brexit. We have taken 22 countries the IMF labelled as fully industrialised in 1995, to remove any countries that are experiencing faster rates of catch-up growth. In order to check how strong our model is in predicting UK GDP, we ran two tests. The first is called a ‘placebo test’. We gave our doppelgänger UK a ‘fake’ referendum, which took place two years earlier, in 2014. This means that the program would find the countries that best matched the UK economy up to 2014, and then project the synthetic UK forward from that date. We wanted to check that the synthetic UK tracked real GDP in the subsequent years despite holding a fake referendum (which, as it is fake, should have no impact on GDP). Chart 2 shows the results of that placebo test. It shows that the doppelgänger UK did not react to the referendum, which means that it is able to predict the future path of UK GDP accurately. The second is a ‘robustness test’. We tested whether we can exclude certain countries that the computer program has selected from the doppelgänger – such as the US – and still get the same result. If that is the case, the model follows UK GDP closely, and is not too dependent on an individual country in the mix of countries that make up the doppelgänger UK. When we excluded each country in turn that made up the doppelgänger UK the results did not change much, showing that our model is robust. See Chart 3. Edited March 31, 2019 by snowychap 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wazzap24 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 Found this on Twitter, from the Heil on Sunday apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post chrisp65 Posted March 31, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted March 31, 2019 Interesting that even on that, there's not a single idea that gets 51% Why isn't Cameron having his arse kicked up and down the roads of Britain? Between this and Grenfell and fake austerity, we're clearly a very placid nation. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 30 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Between this and Grenfell and fake austerity, we're clearly a very placid nation. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morley_crosses_to_Withe Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 17 hours ago, KenjiOgiwara said: Brexit is seriously starting to bore me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 17 hours ago, KenjiOgiwara said: Brexit is seriously starting to bore me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imavillan Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, chrisp65 said: Interesting that even on that, there's not a single idea that gets 51% Why isn't Cameron having his arse kicked up and down the roads of Britain? Between this and Grenfell and fake austerity, we're clearly a very placid nation. because he's a Villa fan...... ......but a very culpable one at that on the back of all of what is going on at the moment in British politics, there are some great articles in today's Sunday Times about where we are, where we might be and the implications to the constitution of Parliament...... Edited March 31, 2019 by imavillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 1 hour ago, chrisp65 said: Interesting that even on that, there's not a single idea that gets 51% Why isn't Cameron having his arse kicked up and down the roads of Britain? Between this and Grenfell and fake austerity, we're clearly a very placid nation. Increasingly Cameron appears to be available for interview outside his house, dressed in Partridge-esque 'sports casual' clothing. He has a lot to answer for, that's for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 12 minutes ago, Dr_Pangloss said: Increasingly Cameron appears to be available for interview outside his house, dressed in Partridge-esque 'sports casual' clothing. He has a lot to answer for, that's for certain. Nah, Tories don't ever have to answer questions. Not on Grenfell, Islamophobia, deaths through their austerity, not anything. Labour? They have to answer for everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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