The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[ml1dch]

Now the preamble is over it's the big debate - the future of Blaydon quarry landfill site.

[snowychap]

21 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

So, realistically something now needs to be legislated by Friday to take to Council for the start of next week for what we need an extension for.

Anybody got anything?

Not a sausage.

[ml1dch]

1 minute ago, Dick said:

She was patching up a cut

Typo?

[Dodgyknees]

Just now, ml1dch said:

Typo?

 

[Dodgyknees]

Tempted to mute words like "Brexit" on Twitter for a few days. It drives me mad. They are all incompetent idiots.

[HanoiVillan]

I assume that, at this point, there are essentially three options. Option A is that May attempts to call an election tomorrow*; she's obviously considering it, you don't just plan a three-hour political cabinet for no reason. That will imply a long extension. Option B is that May decides against that, doesn't give up her deal, and then the decision seems to me to be very bluntly Revoke or No Deal next week. Option C is that the government actually backs one of these amendments on Wednesday. Yes, they all failed, but all senior government members abstained. Somewhere between one and three of them *could* pass, if May pushed them. 

I suspect May will choose Option A, as the one with least chance of splitting the Conservative party immediately. 

*I realise the FTPA means this isn't actually her prerogative; I mean 'put in motion the mechanics that would lead to a GE'

Edited April 1, 2019 by HanoiVillan

[Stevo985]

A couple of us on here have said all along we have a hunch it'll end up not happening.

That hunch is very much still there for me.

We'll revoke Article 50.

[Dodgyknees]

4 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

A couple of us on here have said all along we have a hunch it'll end up not happening.

That hunch is very much still there for me.

We'll revoke Article 50.

I hope so.

[StefanAVFC]

6 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

A couple of us on here have said all along we have a hunch it'll end up not happening.

That hunch is very much still there for me.

We'll revoke Article 50.

Can we just all pretend this never happened?

[Stevo985]

I just wonder how much time and money will have been wasted in the last 3 years of nonsense.

[ml1dch]

10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I assume that, at this point, there are essentially three options. Option A is that May attempts to call an election tomorrow*; she's obviously considering it, you don't just plan a three-hour political cabinet for no reason. That will imply a long extension. Option B is that May decides against that, doesn't give up her deal, and then the decision seems to me to be very bluntly Revoke or No Deal next week. Option C is that the government actually backs one of these amendments on Wednesday. Yes, they all failed, but all senior government members abstained. Somewhere between one and three of them *could* pass, if May pushed them. 

I suspect May will choose Option A, as the one with least chance of splitting the Conservative party immediately. 

*I realise the FTPA means this isn't actually her prerogative; I mean 'put in motion the mechanics that would lead to a GE'

I think your summation is pretty much on the money, but I reckon we've got at least some of B before we get to A.

And a begrudging EU27 agreeing to an extension after a bit of Macronian histrionics because we asked for the extension later than we should have.

Edited April 1, 2019 by ml1dch

[Dodgyknees]

The thing I still struggle with, is the fact people feel sorry for May, and blame others.

SHE CALLED AN ELECTION AND LOST HER MAJORITY.

Sorry, terrible anger. I'll go look at photos of Jane Levy.

[StefanAVFC]

Such an arsehole. We leave with No Deal and this absolute prick wins.

[snowychap]

9 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I assume that, at this point, there are essentially three options. Option A is that May attempts to call an election tomorrow*; she's obviously considering it, you don't just plan a three-hour political cabinet for no reason. That will imply a long extension. Option B is that May decides against that, doesn't give up her deal, and then the decision seems to me to be very bluntly Revoke or No Deal next week. Option C is that the government actually backs one of these amendments on Wednesday. Yes, they all failed, but all senior government members abstained. Somewhere between one and three of them *could* pass, if May pushed them. 

I suspect May will choose Option A, as the one with least chance of splitting the Conservative party immediately. 

*I realise the FTPA means this isn't actually her prerogative; I mean 'put in motion the mechanics that would lead to a GE'

Is there not another option, perhaps, that some senior cabinet members actually resign tomorrow in order that they can vote for the options they may want on Wednesday?

Would the Tory party really allow May to lead them in another election? Do the EU allow an extension just for a GE?

I think B. And who knows what happens then.

[StefanAVFC]

If May resigns, with no GE, then only the Tory members decide who becomes PM, and leads the country through Brexit.

How is that more democratic than a 2nd vote?

[snowychap]

4 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

And a begrudging EU27 agreeing to an extension after a bit of Macronian histrionics because we asked for the extension later than we should have.

If that happens on the 11th April, then there's just one day to pass a new SI to change Exit Day (again).

[ml1dch]

Just now, StefanAVFC said:

If May resigns, with no GE, then only the Tory members decide who becomes PM, and leads the country through Brexit.

Sort of. But without the election they are dealing with the same arithmetic as May. 

Let's say that tubby ring-piece in the clip above becomes leader (obviously not in this or any other reality) from a membership ballot  - the first thing parliament does is bring down his government. 

Given the difficulties that the pragmatic, sensible (compared to her likely replacement) May is having, anyone closer to the lunatic fringe will be brought down in a jiffy.

[NurembergVillan]

12 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Such an arsehole. We leave with No Deal and this absolute prick wins.

I swear he gets shorter every time he's on TV.

And he's an absolute bell.

[HanoiVillan]

 

14 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Is there not another option, perhaps, that some senior cabinet members actually resign tomorrow in order that they can vote for the options they may want on Wednesday?

Would the Tory party really allow May to lead them in another election? Do the EU allow an extension just for a GE?

I think B. And who knows what happens then.

Yes, that is an option. I think that there's a decent chance that the outcome of the two cabinet meetings is such that one side or other quits en bloc. 

On the second question, I think the Tories will allow her. There will definitely be plenty who try to block it; it's true that Backbench Tories + TIG < Other Opposition Parties + Tory moderates, however the question is whether it makes 33% or not. I guess it would be fairly close. 

On the third question, I think yes, but as per @ml1dch, after a bout of European grumbling. 

All just guesses, obviously. 

Edited April 1, 2019 by HanoiVillan

[ml1dch]

6 minutes ago, snowychap said:

If that happens on the 11th April, then there's just one day to pass a new SI to change Exit Day (again).

I'm sure you're right - did the thing the other day specifically change it to April 12th rather than leaving it open-ended?

If so, that's probably the stupidest bit of legislation of this whole shambles. 

Putting a date in there in the first place was one of the stupidest. Putting a new date in after you realised that it was stupid to originally put a date in is heroically dumb.