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VillaGoMarching

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Yeah people said similar when we lost Milner and got Ireland and £18m but they were very wrong. They could be better off or they could go the other way.

Yes it could and there's a decent chance they'd get many of the buys wrong but there's a big difference between MON spending eighteen million and avb/levy spending eighty

 

 

To be fair to MON on this one he wasn't the one that agreed the deal for Ireland.

 

Obviously you all know more than me about this, but I always understood the deal for Ireland was agreed before MON walked out and it was finalized after. So he agreed the transfer the club just completed it after he left. I definitely could be wrong though

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I can't believe you would turn down that high of a bid, its such a huge risk. If Bale doesn't improve on last year theres no way they'd get near as much next summer. Sell high. Especially for a player that doesn't want to be there.

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As far as I can tell, the Loic Remy rumour seem to come from a kids twitter account.

Not that I'd mind him, he impressed me at QPR when he was fit and played central.

As long as he aint a rapist that is ..

 

Far stronger rumour is that Roberto Soldado is close to signing, and that would be on a whole other level.

Price mentioned is mind blowing for someone in his late 20s,

but there's no doubting his quality - one of the most clinical finishers in the game. Getting Lineker vibes just thinking of him in a Spurs shirt.

Apparently Valencia aren't willing to lower their asking price, but they have no problem with it being paid over longer time in installments.

 

Difficult to say what's happening with Bale. Everyone seemed to jump on the Marca fabricated story about Bale wanting to leave.

You'd think if we turned down a world record transfer fee, there'd be a statement about it on the website.

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Unless Levy goes out and buys a striker, Spurs will finish 5th again although who knows with the current mess among the top 5 clubs. Man U have a new manager, Arsenal still haven't improved their squad and Spurs have just stock piled on midfielders. 

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From the limited amount of inside info I have on this transfer saga, I was told that Bale is quite happy at Spurs and his Mrs was very reluctant to move away.  His agent is a very good agent though and well thought of by Bale so any advice he gives will influence him I reckon. With this, Suarez and Rooney (and Kiyotake!) it promises to be an interesting transfer window.

Edited by omariqy
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I think if you kept hold of Bale and got Soldado you definitely get Champions League next season.

I do see it difficult for them not to make top 4 with their current team. If Man U don't improve their squad, I can actually see them finishing 5th. 

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At this point, as far as the public knows, it's just creative journalists.

Nothing has been said from the Bale camp.

It started with Marca, pro Real Madrid and their propoganda tool.

Making up quotes surprisingly similiar and in some cases identical with Modric and Kaka quotes from years gone by.

Daily Mail took their info from there, and since it's spread around the web and in lazy papers around the world.

It's been massive, but in fairness to Gareth Bale, he hasn't come out with any demands at this point.

Let's wait and see ..

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If they sell Bale they wont get champions league football for the next few years.

 

At this point, as far as the public knows, it's just creative journalists.

Nothing has been said from the Bale camp.

It started with Marca, pro Real Madrid and their propoganda tool.

Making up quotes surprisingly similiar and in some cases identical with Modric and Kaka quotes from years gone by.

If I were a Spurs fan its the fact that nothing has been said from the Bale camp that would worry me. No matter how much money you are given no Bale no Champions league, its as simple as that.

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If you look at the basic model of price though you see Levy is going to have to pay more than what would be considered the correct price. Spurs are in a situation where they have huge demand for a striker, they currently have an aging Jermain Defoe & Adebayor who failed to perform anywhere near to the level he did the season before. Other than that they have youth players with (I'm guessing) no first team experience. The teams around them have numerous striking options (Lukaku, Ba, Torres, Aguero, Dzeko, Negredo, Jovetic, Van Persie, Rooney, Hernandes, Wellbeck, Podolski, Wallcott, Giroud, Sanogo). Therefore, on this analysis alone Spurs need at least one striker if not two. This of course in economics means that price will move up. Then of course, there is the other side of the coin, supply. With all the players Spurs have been linked to they have all been goal scorers, this alone, is a very rare commodity but the fact the want one of the top ones in the world makes it even rarer. The you have the whole idea that the selling club, Valencia or Villa for that matter, do not want to sell. This is obviously all going to push the price up. Tartuga talks about Spurs getting a fair price, but that is all well and good if Spurs are the selling club, but if they want something they don't own they have to pay what the club wants.

 

 

What is this "Correct" price you speak of? The correct valuation is the estimation of a player's worth given all the variables. That's all. There's no "correct" price, but then a bit more on top of that... if you think the player's worth a bit more then that's the "Correct" price and the price which has him worth a bit less is the incorrect price. The point being made is that once calculated the correct price doesn't change just because the negotiations have got close to agreement, you don't just add on a couple of million because you've put a lot of work into it and it would be gutting to walk away. Most people are human and would find it very difficult to walk away from something they've worked hard for, and really want, and almost have, but if the price exceeds your estimated worth of the thing then you should not buy it.

 

I'll add that although straightforward this stuff seems extraordinarily difficult for many to grasp because it goes against the way our brains are wired*. Master it and there's a good chance you'll be a winner, don't and you're relying on luck.

 

* Similar to the old conundrum where the quiz master tells you of the three closed doors arranged in front of you behind one is a Ferrari and behind the other two a goat. He asks you to chose a door, you do so, and he promptly opens one of the other doors to reveal a goat. Now there are two doors left, and he asks if you want to stick with your decision or chose the other door. What should you do?

 

Answer: Always switch, only by switching to you turn a 33.33% chance of winning the Ferrari into a 50% chance. Most people can't see the difference and think that whatever you do it's a 50% chance and so often they'll stick to their original choice!

 

 

Firstly, the correct price is where supply meets demand, where both parties agree to a price they are willing to pay/sell for. I disagree, you seem to be putting an absolute valuation on a player, however that is not the case. One player can be worth a lot more to certain teams than others, for example Soldado going to City or Spurs, at City he would be a bit part players and maybe get 10 goals but at Spurs he would be the main striker and be expected to hit 20+. As BOF has alluded to Spurs inability to purchase a goal scoring striker in Janaury has more than likely cost them champions league football this year. You talk about walking away like it is some divine power that Levy possess, where the actual case is he can not afford to pay for Soldado, he has no choice, he can not make an offer that is acceptable to the selling club, Spurs are not in a position of power here, as I alluded to earlier they are in the market for highly valuable assets which people do not want to part with, they seem to be wasting valuable time pottering around with offers they know are not going to be accepted.

 

 

How much is Christian Benteke worth? Supply didn't meet demand, but the player has a value. How much is Messi worth? He isn't valueless because nobody's ever bought or sold him.

 

Of course players are worth different things to different clubs!! This is exactly the point I made. A selling club may hold their player in higher esteem than the buying club in which case the sale won't be made. 

 

You seem to be talking about an efficient market pricing something accurately, however this theory only applies when there are lots of sellers and buyers of the same thing being bought and sold all the time. You'd struggle to make the case that there's an efficient market in football players, therefore the price at which a player is bought or sold will likely say little about that players true value. Consider a bookmaker selling heads on a toss of the coin at 1.89, day in and day out punters will buy that bet because they don't know any better, you go into any bookmaker today and see the price on 50/50 Tennis match and it will be around 1.89 for A and 1.89 for B, that is that if the punter wins by backing A or B he will get back 89p for his £1 staked, so there's supply meeting demand but it says nothing about 'Value', 'Value' would have to be worked out at home using a theorem, and of course in this case it's very straightforward Even money equals the 'Correct' price, and anything above 2.0 'Value'. Levy's job then is to work out what the correct price is, and then try to buy his player for less than that, and certainly no more. If he gets his calculation wrong and over-pays, and he does this regularly, a million here and a million there, then just as with the mug punter in my example above, he'd gradually lose all his money.

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At this point, as far as the public knows, it's just creative journalists.

Nothing has been said from the Bale camp.

It started with Marca, pro Real Madrid and their propoganda tool.

Making up quotes surprisingly similiar and in some cases identical with Modric and Kaka quotes from years gone by.

Daily Mail took their info from there, and since it's spread around the web and in lazy papers around the world.

It's been massive, but in fairness to Gareth Bale, he hasn't come out with any demands at this point.

Let's wait and see ..

 

Other than the "Bale hasn't come out with any demands" (that we know of) it's exactly like the Benteke situation and I hope you get **** over.

 

Creative journalists "He will strike" and "He won't turn up"

Levy and Spurs used the papers.

Made up quotes appeared.

This spread from your original source.

 

 

So I am laughing hard at Spurs now, funny how things can come round and bite so hard, isn't it?

 

So yes, I hope you get screwed over big time.

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At this point, as far as the public knows, it's just creative journalists.

Nothing has been said from the Bale camp.

It started with Marca, pro Real Madrid and their propoganda tool.

Making up quotes surprisingly similiar and in some cases identical with Modric and Kaka quotes from years gone by.

Daily Mail took their info from there, and since it's spread around the web and in lazy papers around the world.

It's been massive, but in fairness to Gareth Bale, he hasn't come out with any demands at this point.

Let's wait and see ..

 

Other than the "Bale hasn't come out with any demands" (that we know of) it's exactly like the Benteke situation and I hope you get **** over.

 

Creative journalists "He will strike" and "He won't turn up"

Levy and Spurs used the papers.

Made up quotes appeared.

This spread from your original source.

 

 

So I am laughing hard at Spurs now, funny how things can come round and bite so hard, isn't it?

 

So yes, I hope you get screwed over big time.

 

 

Bloody hell!! :(

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I see they are crying about all the news articles linking Bale with a move to RM

 

They were not crying when the media were doing the same to us with Benteke were they?

 

Karma really is a bitch 

Edited by AshVilla
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I see they are crying about all the news articles linking Bale with a move to RM

 

They were not crying when the media were doing the same to us with Benteke were they?

 

Karma really is a bitch 

 

Thing is, it's quite identical too.. the tapping up, the leaked info to the press, leaked rumours about how much they are willing to pay and then the leaked info about an unhappy player.

 

I'm sure Spurs fans are fine about it, after all they told me "It's football, get used to it."

Edited by dodgyknees
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I've come to terms with Bale leaving for Real Madrid and have no problem with it.

Just hope that it will happen next summer and not this,

cause if he stay I think he can have a 35 league goals season giving us the best chance of the title in my time following Spurs.

No matter what do, we wont get screwed over. Either we'll have the best player in the league or we'll get a shit load of money and build on.
After Berbatov and Modric we're not new to this. Spurs will stay strong and compete in the top 5 with or without Bale.

Spurs hasnt fluked ourselves to our posision and just got lucky with one player, he's a product of the good work the club has done for over a decade and will contintue with for the future.

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At this point, as far as the public knows, it's just creative journalists.

Nothing has been said from the Bale camp.

It started with Marca, pro Real Madrid and their propoganda tool.

Making up quotes surprisingly similiar and in some cases identical with Modric and Kaka quotes from years gone by.

Daily Mail took their info from there, and since it's spread around the web and in lazy papers around the world.

It's been massive, but in fairness to Gareth Bale, he hasn't come out with any demands at this point.

Let's wait and see ..

 

Other than the "Bale hasn't come out with any demands" (that we know of) it's exactly like the Benteke situation and I hope you get **** over.

 

Creative journalists "He will strike" and "He won't turn up"

Levy and Spurs used the papers.

Made up quotes appeared.

This spread from your original source.

 

 

So I am laughing hard at Spurs now, funny how things can come round and bite so hard, isn't it?

 

So yes, I hope you get screwed over big time.

 

 

Bloody hell!! :(

 

He has a point though. I was browsing a Spurs forum last night and looking in their Bale thread. It was pretty much identical to our Benteke thread just talking about different players. The way the media are out against Spurs with Bale is the exact same way they were out against Villa with Benteke. It's incredibly frustrating so I feel your pain with this, but at the same time, I don't think any Spurs fans cared what the media were doing, in the same way that Real Madrid fans wont care now either. 

 

I actually take a little bit of pride that AVFC do not conduct business through the media to try and unsettle players.

Edited by PieFacE
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