Spurs

[TartarugaJones]

 

 

 

 

I don't think Levy has grasped the art of negotiation either.

 

"The price is £30 million."

"£25 million?"

"£30 million."

"£20 million plus (insert overpriced, over the hill, overpaid player he doesn't want)."

"£30 million."

"£27.5 million. Final offer."

"We don't want or have to sell anyway. Sod off."

 

Another master class.

 

 

The real art of negotiation is first being good at working how much a thing is worth, and then being good at buying it for less than that and on no accounts buying it for more than that. I would say the absolute key skill is in walking away, because psychologically it is the hardest thing to do. It is the quality that marks out the experts from the rest of us.

 

So, in the case of a football transfer if you think player A is worth £15m and the selling club thinks he's worth £20m, should you:

 

A: Not pay a penny more than £15m.

B: Pay £20m and have done with it.

C: Offer to split the difference and pay £17.5m

 

You might however criticise Levy's valuations (such as we can guess at them),

 

No, the right decision would be to spend that little bit more for the thing you need the most, not walking away because you can't find perfection for a pittance.

 

 

It's never correct to spend more than you think he's worth!

[NoelVilla]

Actually agree with Tartaruga here, though there is many different situations with different approaches. But most often it is the buyers price that is the correct one. 

[dont_do_it_doug.]

Disagree. Did we really think Bent was worth £18-24m? Of course not. But it was a gamble we simply had to take and it paid off.

Obviously technically nobody ever pays more than the amount they're willing to, but then we're arguing over semantics. The point was if Spurs want to compete with the big boys they're going to have to pay for it and I don't think Levy is willing.

[LondonLax]

We are still paying the price for panic buys like Bent 3 years later.

[BOF]

Actually agree with Tartaruga here, though there is many different situations with different approaches. But most often it is the buyers price that is the correct one.

What Tartaruga isn't taking into account is that if a player is likely to be the difference between getting something like CL football or not getting it, where your income will go up by a minimum of £20m or as much as £50m then it does make sense to maybe spend £2m or £3m more than you think that player is worth. Levy won't do that and that's why at some point when Spurs really try to make that big step I think he goes from being an asset to being a hindrance on them.

We are still paying the price for panic buys like Bent 3 years later.

Bent kept us up so he's a bad example. We'd still be paying the price if we hadn't bought him. If you'd said Hutton and Ireland then I'd agree

[Folski]

I've been thinking, I reckon Spurs are not going to get Soldado and I don't even think they are trying all that hard, as to spend £17m & then another £27m is in my opinion beyond them, but stranger things have happened. Now, I remember last year AVB played in pre-season with Bale up top in a few games, I reckon he has purchased Chandli to play on the left with Bale moving into a more central role. I think if Spurs do go out and buy a striker it will be some one in the £10m bracket or less, possibly a deadline day deal for Remy.

[LondonLax]

We are still paying the price for panic buys like Bent 3 years later.

Bent kept us up so he's a bad example. We'd still be paying the price if we hadn't bought him. If you'd said Hutton and Ireland then I'd agree

Well that is impossible to say. We could have stayed up spending half that amount on a couple of up and coming prospects who would still be useful to us today. Who knows?

[BOF]

We are still paying the price for panic buys like Bent 3 years later.

Bent kept us up so he's a bad example. We'd still be paying the price if we hadn't bought him. If you'd said Hutton and Ireland then I'd agree

Well that is impossible to say. We could have stayed up spending half that amount on a couple of up and coming prospects who would still be useful to us today. Who knows?

Well I'm only dealing in what actually happened. We were struggling to score. We spent. We stayed up. You can talk about the things that might have happened if you want

[dont_do_it_doug.]

We are still paying the price for panic buys like Bent 3 years later.

I'm not suggesting they panic buy. What I am saying is that if there's a player out there who they really want, that they think could tip them, and the difference between their valuation and the selling clubs valuation is a few million, then at that level (20m+) they really need to just go for it at this stage of their development.

Only they won't. They'll sit on their hands again. Levy has no balls.

[TartarugaJones]

 

Actually agree with Tartaruga here, though there is many different situations with different approaches. But most often it is the buyers price that is the correct one.

What Tartaruga isn't taking into account is that if a player is likely to be the difference between getting something like CL football or not getting it, where your income will go up by a minimum of £20m or as much as £50m then it does make sense to maybe spend £2m or £3m more than you think that player is worth. Levy won't do that and that's why at some point when Spurs really try to make that big step I think he goes from being an asset to being a hindrance on them.

We are still paying the price for panic buys like Bent 3 years later.

Bent kept us up so he's a bad example. We'd still be paying the price if we hadn't bought him. If you'd said Hutton and Ireland then I'd agree

 

 

 

That's part of the valuation process though, you try and factor in all these variables using whichever formula you use and you come out with a sum you think the player is worth. Then you negotiate to purchase him for no more than that figure and in fact for as little as possible. What you don't do is pay more than that, even if it's 'only' a couple of million more or whatever, simply because you're close and you feel like you've put in lots of work to get this close. The absolute skill is in trusting your valuation, sticking to it, and walking away if it's not met.

Edited July 25, 2013 by TartarugaJones

[Mr_Dogg]

I'd have to really disagree with Tartaruga on this.

Overpaying to guarantee a much needed signing who could easily pay you back down the line is worth it on some occasions.

[Folski]

Thing is though it's much easier to say if a deal is good value at the end of a players spell, if Spurs did sign Soldado and he scored 45 goals over the next 2 seasons and they got Champions League he'd be seen as a bargain. Like Benteke £7m can no never seem like we've been robbed even if he never scores again. Buffon is a great example I'd imagine a lot of people were saying it was nuts splashing €51m on him 12 years later and he's still doing a job in between the sticks.

[BOF]

That's part of the valuation process though, you try and factor in all these variables using whichever formula you use and you come out with a sum you think the player is worth. Then you negotiate to purchase him for no more than that figure and in fact for as little as possible. What you don't do is pay more than that, even if it's 'only' a couple of million more or whatever, simply because you're close and you feel like you've put in lots of work to get this close. The absolute skill is in trusting your valuation, sticking to it, and walking away if it's not met.

Well another way of putting it is this. Levy's inflexibility in such matters will become an issue to Spurs going forward.

[Folski]

 

That's part of the valuation process though, you try and factor in all these variables using whichever formula you use and you come out with a sum you think the player is worth. Then you negotiate to purchase him for no more than that figure and in fact for as little as possible. What you don't do is pay more than that, even if it's 'only' a couple of million more or whatever, simply because you're close and you feel like you've put in lots of work to get this close. The absolute skill is in trusting your valuation, sticking to it, and walking away if it's not met.

Well another way of putting it is this. Levy's inflexibility in such matters will become an issue to Spurs going forward.

 

 

If you look at the basic model of price though you see Levy is going to have to pay more than what would be considered the correct price. Spurs are in a situation where they have huge demand for a striker, they currently have an aging Jermain Defoe & Adebayor who failed to perform anywhere near to the level he did the season before. Other than that they have youth players with (I'm guessing) no first team experience. The teams around them have numerous striking options (Lukaku, Ba, Torres, Aguero, Dzeko, Negredo, Jovetic, Van Persie, Rooney, Hernandes, Wellbeck, Podolski, Wallcott, Giroud, Sanogo). Therefore, on this analysis alone Spurs need at least one striker if not two. This of course in economics means that price will move up. Then of course, there is the other side of the coin, supply. With all the players Spurs have been linked to they have all been goal scorers, this alone, is a very rare commodity but the fact the want one of the top ones in the world makes it even rarer. The you have the whole idea that the selling club, Valencia or Villa for that matter, do not want to sell. This is obviously all going to push the price up. Tartuga talks about Spurs getting a fair price, but that is all well and good if Spurs are the selling club, but if they want something they don't own they have to pay what the club wants.

[TartarugaJones]

 

That's part of the valuation process though, you try and factor in all these variables using whichever formula you use and you come out with a sum you think the player is worth. Then you negotiate to purchase him for no more than that figure and in fact for as little as possible. What you don't do is pay more than that, even if it's 'only' a couple of million more or whatever, simply because you're close and you feel like you've put in lots of work to get this close. The absolute skill is in trusting your valuation, sticking to it, and walking away if it's not met.

Well another way of putting it is this. Levy's inflexibility in such matters will become an issue to Spurs going forward.

 

 

If Levy's method for valuing a player is rubbish then that will be an issue going forward. What we can say is that since ENIC took over the club has made great strides in comparison to our peers, and it has done so spending considerably less than most of them and within the club's means. That he's done well in the past is no guarantee that he will in the future, but every single window for the past four or five years we get the same "Levy's missed a trick!", "Why does he **** around?", "Why doesn't he just pay what they want?", "We'll be back to mid-table next season thanks to him...", and yet over all it hasn't come to pass. Perhaps this will be the turning point and from here on it's downhill all the way, but given the track record and where we are now I think you'd have to be pretty skewed to think it.

 

I don't think I've talked about a fair price in the context of this conversation btw?

Edited July 25, 2013 by TartarugaJones

[BOF]

If Levy's method for valuing a player is rubbish then that will be an issue going forward. What we can say is that since ENIC took over the club has made great strides in comparison to our peers.

No disagreement there. It's what he does from here onwards that'll be interesting, assuming Spurs are not happy to sit 5th/6th forever. If you are happy with that then he might be fine for you.

[TartarugaJones]

 

 

That's part of the valuation process though, you try and factor in all these variables using whichever formula you use and you come out with a sum you think the player is worth. Then you negotiate to purchase him for no more than that figure and in fact for as little as possible. What you don't do is pay more than that, even if it's 'only' a couple of million more or whatever, simply because you're close and you feel like you've put in lots of work to get this close. The absolute skill is in trusting your valuation, sticking to it, and walking away if it's not met.

Well another way of putting it is this. Levy's inflexibility in such matters will become an issue to Spurs going forward.

 

 

If you look at the basic model of price though you see Levy is going to have to pay more than what would be considered the correct price. Spurs are in a situation where they have huge demand for a striker, they currently have an aging Jermain Defoe & Adebayor who failed to perform anywhere near to the level he did the season before. Other than that they have youth players with (I'm guessing) no first team experience. The teams around them have numerous striking options (Lukaku, Ba, Torres, Aguero, Dzeko, Negredo, Jovetic, Van Persie, Rooney, Hernandes, Wellbeck, Podolski, Wallcott, Giroud, Sanogo). Therefore, on this analysis alone Spurs need at least one striker if not two. This of course in economics means that price will move up. Then of course, there is the other side of the coin, supply. With all the players Spurs have been linked to they have all been goal scorers, this alone, is a very rare commodity but the fact the want one of the top ones in the world makes it even rarer. The you have the whole idea that the selling club, Valencia or Villa for that matter, do not want to sell. This is obviously all going to push the price up. Tartuga talks about Spurs getting a fair price, but that is all well and good if Spurs are the selling club, but if they want something they don't own they have to pay what the club wants.

 

 

What is this "Correct" price you speak of? The correct valuation is the estimation of a player's worth given all the variables. That's all. There's no "correct" price, but then a bit more on top of that... if you think the player's worth a bit more then that's the "Correct" price and the price which has him worth a bit less is the incorrect price. The point being made is that once calculated the correct price doesn't change just because the negotiations have got close to agreement, you don't just add on a couple of million because you've put a lot of work into it and it would be gutting to walk away. Most people are human and would find it very difficult to walk away from something they've worked hard for, and really want, and almost have, but if the price exceeds your estimated worth of the thing then you should not buy it.

 

I'll add that although straightforward this stuff seems extraordinarily difficult for many to grasp because it goes against the way our brains are wired*. Master it and there's a good chance you'll be a winner, don't and you're relying on luck.

 

* Similar to the old conundrum where the quiz master tells you of the three closed doors arranged in front of you behind one is a Ferrari and behind the other two a goat. He asks you to chose a door, you do so, and he promptly opens one of the other doors to reveal a goat. Now there are two doors left, and he asks if you want to stick with your decision or chose the other door. What should you do?

 

Answer: Always switch, only by switching to you turn a 33.33% chance of winning the Ferrari into a 50% chance. Most people can't see the difference and think that whatever you do it's a 50% chance and so often they'll stick to their original choice!

Edited July 25, 2013 by TartarugaJones

[TartarugaJones]

 

If Levy's method for valuing a player is rubbish then that will be an issue going forward. What we can say is that since ENIC took over the club has made great strides in comparison to our peers.

No disagreement there. It's what he does from here onwards that'll be interesting, assuming Spurs are not happy to sit 5th/6th forever. If you are happy with that then he might be fine for you.

 

 

So far we've continued to make progress the trend has been clearly up. Last season was our best points haul ever etc. We haven't finished below 5th in five years, it's been 4th, 5th, 4th, 5th.

[BOF]

Again, I'm not disagreeing. My entire point from the start was about the huge jump now required for Spurs to become a title contender from where you are now. That's what I'm doubting Levy will be able to do because that does require swallowing pride and paying valuations on superstar players that Levy may not entirely agree with. I think he has come as far as he can.

[TartarugaJones]

Again, I'm not disagreeing. My entire point from the start was about the huge jump now required for Spurs to become a title contender from where you are now. That's what I'm doubting Levy will be able to do because that does require swallowing pride and paying valuations on superstar players that Levy may not entirely agree with. I think he has come as far as he can.

 

Good stuff. I'm not sure there's a huge jump to become title contenders, but accept there might be. This season's certainly going to be very interesting with a number of the big spenders undergoing major transformation. I also don't think there's a huge fall for us to slide back into mid-table, nor, for example, for Villa to rise out of it. I'm a big believer in looking at a team entire rather than individuals and think it's the combination of skills and ability expertly marshalled by the coach, as well as a recruitment policy that understands what the team requires and can identify the players to meet those requirements. Borussia Dortmund is the model, and also Arsenal of the Wenger years.

 

You can of course short-cut all of that by simply throwing masses of money at it, getting players you know are excellent and getting lots of them, as well as a top coach, and then letting him put them together into a winning team. Even with mediocre coaches like Mancini, or Grant you can get results like this. If you're a club of the size of Villa or Spurs though, then there's no short-cut, there's no pushing the boat out because you haven't got a boat to push to push out - we'll succeed or fail by our wits and judgement! Perhaps we'll fail, but if we do I think it will because the job was very difficult to pull off, rather than because someone else could have come in and run the club and done a better job.

 

In my opinion our biggest asset is not Bale, and not AVB, but is Levy.

Edited July 25, 2013 by TartarugaJones