Where will we finish ?

[nick76]

I think 15th, I think we are currently higher in the league than our play suggests but we just, and I mean just, better than relegation type teams.

Guzan is a great keeper

We know Luna's weaknesses

Baker and Clark aren't good enough

Vlaar is good but picks up more than his fair share of injuries

Lowton should be back at right back

All midfield, is not dynamic or creative enough and doesn't protect the defence enough

Benteke out of form and injured

Gabby, doing ok this season

Weimann, so out of form it's untrue

Kozak, limited but doing well in his first season here

Team doesn't inspire me but as always we keep going

[Big_John_10]

Maybe I've got the wrong end of the stick but are people trying to justify finishing in the bottom half of the table again with the idea it's not much different from the top half?

[danceoftheshamen]

I do think we've had a bit of bad luck regarding injuries to key players but then this is the same for every club at some point and the fact is some of those clubs are "Prepared" for that scenario and others are clearly not. But Vlaar, Benteke, Okore and recently Gabby too would be missed by most clubs.. thing is most clubs would have adequate replacements who could at least hold the fort temporarily whilst they were out... We clearly do not.

 

Forcast: Bottom 6

[Tayls]

Hull teaching us a lesson on how to play Man U at home....

[Dr_Pangloss]

Bottom 6

[Dodgyknees]

http://www.villatalk.com/index.php/topic/9956-relegation-battle-13-14/?fromsearch=1

[jacketspuds]

18th

[ArteSuave]

Cheer up you miserable bunch of bastards. This time last year we were getting stuffed 3, 4 and 8 **** nil (with defending that makes this season's Clark and Baker look like McGrath & Teale) and we still managed to have a half decent second half of the season.

 

If we win on Saturday I honestly think we'll make 50 points. I think that's usually 8th-12th but exactly what position is down to the points totals of other teams (obviously). Shit do we need Vlaar and Benteke fully fit though.

[NoelVilla]

We had a Benteke that cared last season.

[ArteSuave]

We had a Benteke that cared last season.

 

Benteke does care. Not particularly about Villa (I don't think he cared about Villa last season either) but about his world cup starting place. That is enough motivation for him to put everything in when he's back, as if 50k a week isn't reason enough.

[P3te]

Top 10? Have you watched us this season?

Again this misconception that there's a difference in quality between a team who finishes 10th and one who finishes 15th. There's not. If we're capable of not being relegated, we're capable of finishing 9th in this league, because there's absolutely nothing between the teams underneath the top 8 at the moment. They're all poor, us included. It's a case of who gets a bit of luck in a few games to put themselves a few points ahead of the rest, nothing more. There's no pride to be had from finishing 9th, just like there's no great shame for finishing 15th. Once you don't get relegated the actual order of the teams has zero reflection of quality

Wow seriously? you believe that bo***** if you want but in the real world there is a big difference between 10th and 15th. The table doesn't lie in May, luck has nothing to do with it.

How many points were we of 10th last season? I'll tell you, 5.

That's two lucky results is all

[Tayls]

Do you guys reckon we will be the first team ever to go 5 games unbeaten, to 5 games beaten immediately after?

Edited December 27, 2013 by Tayls

[King Cropley]

Cheer up you miserable bunch of bastards. This time last year we were getting stuffed 3, 4 and 8 **** nil (with defending that makes this season's Clark and Baker look like McGrath & Teale) and we still managed to have a half decent second half of the season.

 

If we win on Saturday I honestly think we'll make 50 points. I think that's usually 8th-12th but exactly what position is down to the points totals of other teams (obviously). Shit do we need Vlaar and Benteke fully fit though.

If by 'half decent second half of the season', you mean getting knocked out of 2 cups by lower league opposition and being in a relegation dogfight until a week before the end of the season, then fair play. Personally, I thought it was a dreadful season......which is about to repeat itself. Keep up the good work Lambert.....

[leviramsey]

Post Boxing Day Monte Carlo

Power ratings are now (with surrounding non-PL clubs for comparison)

4. Bayern Muenchen

5. Man City

6. Roma

7. Real Madrid

8. Newcastle

9. Barcelona

10. Everton

11. Juventus

12. Man Utd

13. Arsenal

14. Benfica

15. Chelsea

16. Liverpool

17. Shakhtar Donetsk

46. Schalke

47. Spurs

48. Zorya

49. Zenit St. Petersburg

50. Southampton

51. Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk

83. Besiktas

84. Stoke

85. Maccabi Tel Aviv

86. West Brom

87. Evian

88. Hull

89. Lyon

92. Espanyol

93. Sunderland

94. Sampdoria

107. Slovan Liberec

108. Swansea

109. Hellas Verona

130. Levante

131. Aston Villa

132. Werder Bremen

133. West Ham

134. Volyn

137. Rapid Wien

138. Norwich

139. Hamburg

149. Excelsior Rotterdam

150. Palace

151. Genoa

153. Rennes

154. Cardiff

155. Akhisar Belediye

161. Illichevets

162. Fulham

163. Hannover

Aston Villa finish probabilities

9th: 0.2%

10th: 4.0%

11th: 7.4%

12th: 11.3%

^^^ upper quartile

13th: 14.0%

14th: 16.3%

=== median

15th: 14.3%

16th: 11.6%

vvv lower quartile

17th: 8.8%

18th: 6.1%

19th: 3.9%

20th: 2.1%

Relegation probability now above 12%...

[Villarocker]

Top 10? Have you watched us this season?

Again this misconception that there's a difference in quality between a team who finishes 10th and one who finishes 15th. There's not. If we're capable of not being relegated, we're capable of finishing 9th in this league, because there's absolutely nothing between the teams underneath the top 8 at the moment. They're all poor, us included. It's a case of who gets a bit of luck in a few games to put themselves a few points ahead of the rest, nothing more. There's no pride to be had from finishing 9th, just like there's no great shame for finishing 15th. Once you don't get relegated the actual order of the teams has zero reflection of quality

There's a big difference! Isn't it £900k per place? If so, finishing 9th instead of 15th means an extra £5.4m to the Villa - or in real terms - a minimum of 5 Paul Lambert signings Edited December 27, 2013 by villarocker

[myko]

21st.

[VillaCas]

Maybe I've got the wrong end of the stick but are people trying to justify finishing in the bottom half of the table again with the idea it's not much different from the top half?

 

I don't think that's what people are saying - just that there is not much difference between say 10th and 15th performance-wise. 4 or 5 points can make a massive difference such as in the Houllier season when we didn't feel like a 9th place side

 

The problem with the strategy that Lerner has put in place is that there is a paper-thin line between "success" and failure - without our two best players we look totally bereft of ideas. There is no chance of any manager being competitive whilst we re only prepared to pay Championship wages. I watched the Hull game yesterday and the fact that they have half a dozen players that we can't / won't afford is pitiful

[AVTuco]

Post Boxing Day Monte Carlo

Aston Villa finish probabilities

9th: 0.2%

10th: 4.0%

11th: 7.4%

12th: 11.3%

^^^ upper quartile

13th: 14.0%

14th: 16.3%

=== median

15th: 14.3%

16th: 11.6%

vvv lower quartile

17th: 8.8%

18th: 6.1%

19th: 3.9%

20th: 2.1%

Relegation probability now above 12%...

Hi, nice of you to do it again so soon.

 

Relegation probability has risen from 1,9 % ten days ago to 12,1 % now.... in three games I think....what can I say; not good. 

Edited December 27, 2013 by AVTuco

[Guest av1]

Unfortunately I believe this will be the year we are relegated.

[NurembergVillan]

19th.