Where will we finish ?

[GENTLEMAN]

I think we will end up 12th - 14th. I can imagine we will spend a fair bit of time looking over our shoulders worrying about how a few bad results will leave us in trouble, but if we have a fully fit team (including Benteke) I don't expect us to ever be in serious trouble.

I felt this way after the Newcastle result.

[dakid007]

Once we get our players fit minus okore & nzogbia we should be pushing for top10

[SeanO]

Top 10? Have you watched us this season?

 

We are very poor god only knows just where some of you think these points are going to come from, I hope you are right and I wish I had your faith.

[markavfc40]

If we continue to play as we have for the first half of this season we will finish in the bottom third of the table so 13th and below. As much as I rate Lambert and would love to say otherwise we have been poor in the main and served up some right tripe.

 

However I think the next run of 3 games is now crucial and gives us a chance to string some positive results together, gain some confidence and hopefully start playing some decent stuff. I'd be disappointed with less than 7 points from the 3 games we have in the next week. Any less than 4 points and I can see us looking at another final third of the season where survival will be the be all and end all.

Edited December 25, 2013 by markavfc40

[Woody1000]

We will finish 11th/12th IMO. The really worrying thing for me is our home form - our counter attacking style works against us due to the clubs around us settling for an away point when they come to VP, and the top sides generally beating us there because they are just simply better than us.

I'm baffled as to where our passing has gone since the end of last season. Not that we were playing like Barca or anything, but we did seem to be knocking it around quite nicely at times.

That said, I am optimistic that we will pick up enough points along the way to not have any relegation worries this term.

[Tayls]

I think we need to pick up 10 points from our next six games. That will give us 15 games to get to just over 40 points which will see us safe. Hopefully we can get closer to 50, but, doubt it!

If we don't hit 10 in the next 6, then I think we will be in a relegation struggle.

Edited December 25, 2013 by Tayls

[VillaChris]

We get 4 points from Palace and Swansea, we'll probably be top 10 again.

 

The league is very poor below the top 8. Swansea are a decent team but yet another one that is struggling with Europe and few key players injured. Stoke? Don't make me laugh.

[leviramsey]

A Monte Carlo is running as we speak...

[AVTuco]

Median 13th?

[The Fun Factory]

14th. Appalling

That would be our 2 year on year improvement. Just saying like......

[AVTuco]

14th would be quite satisfactory.

[P3te]

Top 10? Have you watched us this season?

Again this misconception that there's a difference in quality between a team who finishes 10th and one who finishes 15th. There's not. If we're capable of not being relegated, we're capable of finishing 9th in this league, because there's absolutely nothing between the teams underneath the top 8 at the moment. They're all poor, us included. It's a case of who gets a bit of luck in a few games to put themselves a few points ahead of the rest, nothing more. There's no pride to be had from finishing 9th, just like there's no great shame for finishing 15th. Once you don't get relegated the actual order of the teams has zero reflection of quality

[Adam_]

Hoping for 10th, anything 14th or above I'd be happy with though as it's a step in the right direction!

[briny_ear]

 There's no pride to be had from finishing 9th, just like there's no great shame for finishing 15th. 

 

Maybe not (although I know which position I would rather end up in!) but there is money - last season the 9th club got about £4.5m more in prize money than 15th. Who knows what the difference will be this year with the new TV deal? Let's face it, we need every penny we can get. With that sort of money, Lambert could buy an entire new midfield. 

[P3te]

absolutely, the moneys a factor for sure. the higher the better

[leviramsey]

Villa finish probabilities

8th: 0.1%

9th: 1.0%

10th: 5.0%

11th: 9.7%

12th: 15.5%

^^^ Upper quartile

13th: 18.5%

--- Median

14th: 17.8%

15th: 13.6%

vvv Lower quartile

16th: 9.4%

17th: 5.4%

18th: 2.7%

19th: 1.1%

20th: 0.2%

Other finish probabilities

Title race

Man City: 41.5%

Arsenal: 28.7%

Liverpool: 12.9%

Everton: 9.1%

Chelsea: 5.1%

Man Utd: 2.6%

Newcastle: 0.1%

Top 4

Man City: 90.5%

Arsenal: 87.4%

Liverpool: 66.7%

Everton: 62.8%

Chelsea: 47.3%

Man Utd: 40.2%

Newcastle: 3.6%

Spurs: 1.6%

Southampton: 0.1%

Top 6

Man City: 99.2%

Arsenal: 99.0%

Liverpool: 94.6%

Everton: 94.4%

Chelsea: 89.3%

Man Utd: 87.8%

Newcastle: 22.3%

Spurs: 12.4%

Southampton: 1.2%

Bottom 3

Palace: 82.8%

Sunderland: 75.9%

Fulham: 53.9%

West Ham: 37.5%

Cardiff: 21.1%

Norwich: 19.2%

Villa: 4%

West Brom: 2.9%

Hull: 2.4%

Stoke: 0.2%

Swansea: 0.1%

Rock bottom

Palace: 40.6%

Sunderland: 32.1%

Fulham: 15.0%

West Ham: 6.7%

Cardiff: 2.8%

Norwich: 2.3%

West Brom: 0.2%

Villa: 0.2%

Hull: 0.1%

Edited December 26, 2013 by leviramsey

[leviramsey]

Rankings of English clubs in the power ratings that go into this

6. Man City

8. Man Utd

10. Everton

11. Arsenal

12. Liverpool

15. Newcastle

22. Chelsea

45. Southampton

49. Stoke

58. Spurs

74. WBA

86. Swansea

97. Hull

107. Sunderland

128. Villa

143. Norwich

147. West Ham

149. Palace

151. Cardiff

153. Fulham

This order is roughly the order I'd expect the sides to finish in if the season started today.

[SeanO]

 

Top 10? Have you watched us this season?

Again this misconception that there's a difference in quality between a team who finishes 10th and one who finishes 15th. There's not. If we're capable of not being relegated, we're capable of finishing 9th in this league, because there's absolutely nothing between the teams underneath the top 8 at the moment. They're all poor, us included. It's a case of who gets a bit of luck in a few games to put themselves a few points ahead of the rest, nothing more. There's no pride to be had from finishing 9th, just like there's no great shame for finishing 15th. Once you don't get relegated the actual order of the teams has zero reflection of quality

 

 

Wow seriously? you believe that bo***** if you want but in the real world there is a big difference between 10th and 15th. The table doesn't lie in May, luck has nothing to do with it.

[AVTuco]

Villa finish probabilities8th: 0.1%9th: 1.0%10th: 5.0%11th: 9.7%12th: 15.5%^^^ Upper quartile13th: 18.5%--- Median14th: 17.8%15th: 13.6%vvv Lower quartile16th: 9.4%17th: 5.4%18th: 2.7%19th: 1.1%20th: 0.2%Other finish probabilitiesTitle raceMan City: 41.5%Arsenal: 28.7%Liverpool: 12.9%Everton: 9.1%Chelsea: 5.1%Man Utd: 2.6%Newcastle: 0.1%Top 4Man City: 90.5%Arsenal: 87.4%Liverpool: 66.7%Everton: 62.8%Chelsea: 47.3%Man Utd: 40.2%Newcastle: 3.6%Spurs: 1.6%Southampton: 0.1%Top 6Man City: 99.2%Arsenal: 99.0%Liverpool: 94.6%Everton: 94.4%Chelsea: 89.3%Man Utd: 87.8%Newcastle: 22.3%Spurs: 12.4%Southampton: 1.2%Bottom 3Palace: 82.8%Sunderland: 75.9%Fulham: 53.9%West Ham: 37.5%Cardiff: 21.1%Norwich: 19.2%Villa: 4%West Brom: 2.9%Hull: 2.4%Stoke: 0.2%Swansea: 0.1%Rock bottomPalace: 40.6%Sunderland: 32.1%Fulham: 15.0%West Ham: 6.7%Cardiff: 2.8%Norwich: 2.3%West Brom: 0.2%Villa: 0.2%Hull: 0.1%

So my guess above was right... 13th would still be good.

Relegation probability has doubled to 4% unfortunately.

[VillaCas]

 

 

Top 10? Have you watched us this season?

Again this misconception that there's a difference in quality between a team who finishes 10th and one who finishes 15th. There's not. If we're capable of not being relegated, we're capable of finishing 9th in this league, because there's absolutely nothing between the teams underneath the top 8 at the moment. They're all poor, us included. It's a case of who gets a bit of luck in a few games to put themselves a few points ahead of the rest, nothing more. There's no pride to be had from finishing 9th, just like there's no great shame for finishing 15th. Once you don't get relegated the actual order of the teams has zero reflection of quality

 

 

Wow seriously? you believe that bo***** if you want but in the real world there is a big difference between 10th and 15th. The table doesn't lie in May, luck has nothing to do with it.

 

 

Last season there were 5 points between 10th and 16th - the real bo****** is if you really beleive that good or bad luck can't give or take away 5 points across a season.