leviramsey Posted December 6, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted December 6, 2013 I've been too busy with other interests and tasks over the past few weeks to update things, but things should calm down over the next few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted December 6, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted December 6, 2013 I've been too busy with other interests and tasks over the past few weeks to update things, but things should calm down over the next few days... Off Topic advise -type interests? Ok, when you're ready mate, your audience is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted December 17, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted December 17, 2013 Villa finish probabilities7th: 0.1%8th: 0.5%9th: 3.4%10th: 15.1%^^^ Upper 25%11th: 17.3%12th: 16.3%=== Median13th: 15.2%14th: 12.1%vvv Bottom 25%15th: 8.9%16th: 5.8%17th: 3.4%18th: 1.4%19th: 0.4%20th: 0.1%PL clubs positions in my power rankings through Monday's games2. Man City6. Everton9. Man Utd11. Newcastle12. Chelsea14. Arsenal15. Liverpool37. Southampton38. Spurs59. Stoke74. WBA76. Hull83. Villa88. Swansea91. West Ham104. Norwich105. Cardiff129. Sunderland130. Fulham137. Palace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted December 19, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted December 19, 2013 Still under 2% chance of being relegated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Villa finish probabilities 11th: 17.3% I keep seeing this table get posted regularly. I'm guessing that you perform some sort of simulation but based on what?? Results in the season to date? Weighted in some way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted December 20, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted December 20, 2013 Basically:* One hundred thousand simulations of the season are performed, using win/draw/loss probabilities determined from a power rating scheme* The power ratings are determined based on results this season throughout Europe*, with more recent results counted somewhat more than older results. Beating good teams tends to improve one's rating, losing to poor ones tends to hurt it. The ratings are scaled to give a quick idea of how much one team would beat/lose to another by on average over an arbitrarily large number of games played.*: the basic criteria for determining whether a game could count for the power ratings are:- games in the CL and EL count- games in the top divisions of England, Spain, Germany, Italy, Russia, France, Portugal, Netherlands, Greece, Ukraine, and Turkey count- games in those countries' cup competitions which could qualify a team for the EL and where one club is in the top division countThe games that could count are then repeatedly winnowed by not counting games against clubs who have not played at least two countable games until the fixed point of that winnowing is reached (i.e. when every remaining opponent has played at least two countable games) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 (edited) I think we need 4 points from our next three games. How many were we on after 19 games last season? Edited December 20, 2013 by Tayls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electric Avenue Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Dropping 5 points from the next 3 games wouldn't be good bearing in mind the opponents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 26 or 27 points after the Sunderland game would be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Dropping 5 points from the next 3 games wouldn't be good bearing in mind the opponents. I think a win and a draw wouldn't be too bad from the next three. I'm expecting us to lose one of them because that is what we do best. I wouldn't be surprised if it is tomorrow's fixture that we do lose! Think 4 points is probably realistic? Anymore than that = bonus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morpheus Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 We should be expecting to take maximum points in the next three games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelVilla Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 We should be expecting to take maximum points in the next three games. Really? Have you been hacked Morph? Think we keep struggling if Vlaar is injured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 We should be expecting to take maximum points in the next three games. I really think you have to higher expectations. We have won 5 in 16.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morpheus Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 My reasoning behind this is in hope more than anything else as these are the type of teams we need to be beating to keep ourselves away from trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelVilla Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 My reasoning behind this is in hope more than anything else as these are the type of teams we need to be beating to keep ourselves away from trouble. If we don't lose to them without Vlaar I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFCforever1991 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I've been too busy with other interests and tasks over the past few weeks to update things, but things should calm down over the next few days... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelVilla Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I've been too busy with other interests and tasks over the past few weeks to update things, but things should calm down over the next few days... and that is why Trent have disappeared from VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelVilla Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 14th Said 12th before the season and I'll stick by that, Benteke will be humble and work hard again after Santa pays him a visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dakid007 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 If the lads dig in and fight so were not so easy to beat we can get 5 points from next 3 games Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 (edited) I knew we would lose today. I bet we will pick up a draw and a win in out next two. We are just an inconsistent, crap team at the moment. None of our players are quality... In fact, id say 8 out of our starting 11 players today are all actually **** shite. Edited December 21, 2013 by Tayls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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