AVFCforever1991 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Its not just the quality that Vlaar has thats important, its also the leadership he brings to the team and especially the back line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pacbuddies Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 How many games as he had?? For me he could easily be as good as those mentioned. As a defender myself, I'd go as far as saying if you dont rate Vlaar you've never kicked a ball in youir life. The crucial word in your post is 'could' (I have underlined it for you). We don't need 'could' we need will. Oh, and by the way, I was a full back when I played then I went on to manage for 13 years appearing in 2 cup finals (winning 1 of them) and achieved several promotions so your last comment is about as much use as a chocolate teapot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Its not just the quality that Vlaar has thats important, its also the leadership he brings to the team and especially the back line. Hes no world beater. We weren't water tight with him in the side. But I d rather him there than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P3te Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 (edited) if, just if, we're relegated, i assume we can look forward to a year of selling our players earning more than 25k a week, as it wouldn't fit in with our championship budget then, when they're all sold and replaced with cheaper players again, if we drop to league 1, we have the whole thing to look forward to again, albeit for our players earning more than 12k a week bright future indeed Edited January 11, 2013 by P3te Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Vlaar coming back into the side won't do anything about the glaring hole in midfield I hope Westwood is back and we don't have to play the two clown's that we did against Bradford I'd rather we play clark in midfield than Bannan or Delph alongside Westwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 if, just if, we're relegated, i assume we can look forward to a year of selling our players earning more than 25k a week, as it wouldn't fit in with our championship budget then, when they're all sold and replaced with cheaper players again, if we drop to league 1, we have the whole thing to look forward to again, albeit for our players earning more than 12k a week bright future indeed That s my big fear to be honest. I actually pretty much think we are down this season - but the continual shredding of the top earners has to stop - its the road to ruin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 At the moment, the bookmaker’s odds are the most reassuring thing I can see in the current situation! I don’t know much about bookmakers and betting, and I’ve never bet on anything, but I noted the following odds on Skybet. Villa to go down: 13/8 Villa to stay up: 4/9 By my calculations, those odds (if they reflected reality) would mean that Villa have a 38 % chance of being relegated, and a 69% chance of staying up. Now that doesn’t quite add up, of course! I presume this is because the bookmaker’s quoted odds have to be a bit shorter than what the bookmaker perceives as being the real odds on something happening, to ensure that bookmaker makes an overall profit on all the money being bet. I therefore assume that the reality (as they bookmaker sees it) is somewhere in between the odds quoted on “being relegated” and “staying up” respectively. In other words: The bookmaker thinks Villa have about a 35 % chance of being relegated and about a 65 % chance of staying up. Now some people might argue that those odds are very wrong, but it seems logical to me that bookmakers must generally have a reasonable idea about the likelihood of something happening when they quote odds on it. Otherwise they would lose too much money to people who know better than them. In particular, if Villa are so bad that they’re almost certain to go down (which is admittedly the way things have been looking recently), then those odds of 13/8 are silly and betting people should be piling money on it! But bookmakers can’t afford to offer silly odds (and the odds are actually always fairly similar from one bookmaker to another). So, on the basis of this reasoning, you have to conclude that Villa are still, for whatever reasons, more likely to stay up than go down. QED Or have I missed something in my reasoning? You are correct. Weirdly, i was discussing with a mate the chance of us getting relegated earlier today, and i came up with around a 30-35% chance of going down & a 65-70% chance of staying up. i think that pretty fair, and what most non-Villa fans would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KjParton Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Where I go to school there's a bunch of Stoke fans who are just bastards. Every single day I get it in the neck "Villa are going down" The day Stoke get relegated i'll be almost as happy as when SHA got relegated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 You are correct. Weirdly, i was discussing with a mate the chance of us getting relegated earlier today, and i came up with around a 30-35% chance of going down & a 65-70% chance of staying up. i think that pretty fair, and what most non-Villa fans would say. Well with no big money signings coming in - I d say our chances are no more than 50/50. Its all rumour and speculation - but southampton and QPR look to spend......and we don't. We need an unexplained run of form ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormandyVillan Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Well with no big money signings coming in - I d say our chances are no more than 50/50. That's about how I see it, but I'm going to cling to my assumption that the bookmakers must know what they are doing, because Villa certainly don't look like they do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Hopefully the statements made by Lambert regarding his transfer kitty are just smoke and mirrors so he doesn't tip his hand to other clubs. Lerner would be a fool to risk relegation because he's withheld 10m... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 if, just if, we're relegated, i assume we can look forward to a year of selling our players earning more than 25k a week, as it wouldn't fit in with our championship budget Not just this post but I have seen a lot people have this idea that if we get relegated we can sell off the dead wood on big wages. In reality it it the opposite of that. The crap players on big wages (N'Zogbia, Ireland, Hutton etc) will not leave. They won't get the same wage elsewhere so they will stay with us. It is like Birmingham being stuck with Zigic or Portsmouth being stuck with Kanu for years. We won't be able to get rid of them, no one will be interested in taking them unless they agree to take massive pay cuts. The players who will actually leave are all the promising ones, the ones we'd rather keep. Wiemann, Benteke, Westwood, Baker, Lowton etc would all get offers and they would jump at the chance to move to stay in the premiership now they've had a taste of it. We would be likely to cash in as well so we can balance the books and cover the reduced revenue. There are no positives what so ever from relegation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaForever1970 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I know one game doesn't make a season but if we lose today i do think we'll be relegated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daweii Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 (edited) Not just this post but I have seen a lot people have this idea that if we get relegated we can sell off the dead wood on big wages. In reality it it the opposite of that. The crap players on big wages (N'Zogbia, Ireland, Hutton etc) will not leave. They won't get the same wage elsewhere so they will stay with us. It is like Birmingham being stuck with Zigic or Portsmouth being stuck with Kanu for years. We won't be able to get rid of them, no one will be interested in taking them unless they agree to take massive pay cuts. The players who will actually leave are all the promising ones, the ones we'd rather keep. Wiemann, Benteke, Westwood, Baker, Lowton etc would all get offers and they would jump at the chance to move to stay in the premiership now they've had a taste of it. We would be likely to cash in as well so we can balance the books and cover the reduced revenue. There are no positives what so ever from relegation. Eh one positive of not being able to shift the likes of Ireland is that if we play him in the Championship he will steamroller most of the top talent in that league. It may not be ideal having several £60k+ players in the squad, but it may just get us promoted right back into the Premiership as Ireland, N'Zogbia, Hutton etc.. May be average to good Premier League players but they are too good for the Championship. I know it's not great thinking of the Championship being this glorious reset button, but it could get Gabby scoring again which will give him the confidence to score in the Premier League when we return, it'll do everyone the world of good but I would still prefer staying in the Premier League over anything else. PS. Granted keeping them is only a positive for promotion if we keep Weimann, Benteke etc.. Edited January 12, 2013 by Daweii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 (edited) At the moment, the bookmaker’s odds are the most reassuring thing I can see in the current situation! I don’t know much about bookmakers and betting, and I’ve never bet on anything, but I noted the following odds on Skybet. Villa to go down: 13/8 Villa to stay up: 4/9 By my calculations, those odds (if they reflected reality) would mean that Villa have a 38 % chance of being relegated, and a 69% chance of staying up. Now that doesn’t quite add up, of course! I presume this is because the bookmaker’s quoted odds have to be a bit shorter than what the bookmaker perceives as being the real odds on something happening, to ensure that bookmaker makes an overall profit on all the money being bet. I therefore assume that the reality (as they bookmaker sees it) is somewhere in between the odds quoted on “being relegated” and “staying up” respectively. In other words: The bookmaker thinks Villa have about a 35 % chance of being relegated and about a 65 % chance of staying up. Now some people might argue that those odds are very wrong, but it seems logical to me that bookmakers must generally have a reasonable idea about the likelihood of something happening when they quote odds on it. Otherwise they would lose too much money to people who know better than them. In particular, if Villa are so bad that they’re almost certain to go down (which is admittedly the way things have been looking recently), then those odds of 13/8 are silly and betting people should be piling money on it! But bookmakers can’t afford to offer silly odds (and the odds are actually always fairly similar from one bookmaker to another). So, on the basis of this reasoning, you have to conclude that Villa are still, for whatever reasons, more likely to stay up than go down. QED Or have I missed something in my reasoning? Yes well bookmakers obviously make a 'mark up' (their probabilities never sum to unity). This certainly doesn't prove that we'll stay up at all though lol and the likelihood of us staying up will certainly change (and be reflected in the odds) if we lose today Edited January 12, 2013 by Dr_Pangloss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdulaziz1 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Hello .. Our draw to Swansea was down to their poor finishing in the first 15 minutes. Nothing to do with us being good. We were extremely fortunate to not have been 4-0 down after 15 minutes in that game. I haven't seen the match .. But what I'm trying to say .. If we could do a good second half at Swansea .. Why couldn't we do it with other teams ? Especially who are below Swansea ?! If we could have a good peformance against Arsenal with a clean sheet ?! One of our bad things these game is that we're coneding first and conceding quickly ! We need to sort something with our confidence ! That's the biggest issue now ! I think we need to put Stevens instead of Bennet .. Vlaar instead of one of the CB's .. Start with Westwood and Herd if available .. If not then Westwood and Delph .. Bannan with them .. While put N'Zogbia behind Benteke and Weimann ! Enough putting attacking players while we couldn't afford something to them .. We need to sort our midfield and try not to concede so we could have some confedince .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calcifer Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Hello .. Start with Westwood and Herd if available .. If not then Westwood and Delph .. Bannan with them .. I don't wish to see Bannan and Delph together in midfield again we may as well play without one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big_John_10 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Not just this post but I have seen a lot people have this idea that if we get relegated we can sell off the dead wood on big wages. In reality it it the opposite of that. The crap players on big wages (N'Zogbia, Ireland, Hutton etc) will not leave. They won't get the same wage elsewhere so they will stay with us. It is like Birmingham being stuck with Zigic or Portsmouth being stuck with Kanu for years. We won't be able to get rid of them, no one will be interested in taking them unless they agree to take massive pay cuts. The players who will actually leave are all the promising ones, the ones we'd rather keep. Wiemann, Benteke, Westwood, Baker, Lowton etc would all get offers and they would jump at the chance to move to stay in the premiership now they've had a taste of it. We would be likely to cash in as well so we can balance the books and cover the reduced revenue. There are no positives what so ever from relegation. That's a very good point. We laugh at what zigic is doing at blues but we'll be in a similar mess. I just can't see why Lerner would gamble like this. Surely there is too much to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdulaziz1 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Hello .. I don't wish to see Bannan and Delph together in midfield again we may as well play without one! Then who ?! We only have them + Westwood and Herd .. KEA is in Africa ! Maybe Clark to play as DM ? if Vlaar was availabe .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdulaziz1 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Hello .. That's a very good point. We laugh at what zigic is doing at blues but we'll be in a similar mess. I just can't see why Lerner would gamble like this. Surely there is too much to lose. Maybe he is not willing to gamble more and doesn't want to lose more ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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