Relegation

[PandaMac]

QPR, Wigan, Southampton and Reading all have worse or maybe on a push equal squad's than ours. It's not a formality we will go down.

[NormandyVillan]

Few facts I've just come across, appreciate many of you will have seen some of them but thought I'd post anyway:

Villa have won just five of their last thirty-seven league games.

We have also won only three of our last twenty-three home league games.

We have the fewest wins in 2012 out of all ninety-two Football League teams (6).

Villa also scored the fewest number of league goals in the entire Football League in 2012 (30).

If we don't go down, it will be an absolute shock.

[briny_ear]

Or do we actually just look at things as a whole and not be influenced by the odd result?

OK, big picture is that we have 19 points from 21 games, the worst (equal) scoring record in the premier league and the worst defensive record with a negative goal difference -5 worse than any other club. I didn't find that too calming. Edited January 11, 2013 by briny_ear

[NormandyVillan]

You just cant argue with that. Abysmal

It is certainly abysmal, but I’ll have a go at arguing with it (or at least making it sound not quite so bad).

1) The fact that we only won 6 League games in the whole of 2012 (in fact, counting the one game so far in 2013, we’ve now won 6 out of 40 since January 1st 2012) is indeed truly dreadful. On the other hand, we have had a lot of draws (it’s 6 wins, 16 draws and 18 defeats in the last 40). So, since the beginning of 2012, we have actually picked up at least a point in the majority of our games (55 % of them). “Picking up points in the majority of our games” is a more positive interpretation of that period than “winning less games than any team in the country”. Both are true, but the first one sounds a lot better!

2) A lot of those figures include matches from the latter (very bad) part of McLeish’s tenure. Although Lambert’s record is a bit worse than McLeish’s overall, you could divide the last season and a half into three periods:

First half of last season: 19 games 23 points. Mediocre, but enough for lower mid-table.

Second half of last season: 19 games 15 points. Dire. Clearly a relegation-level points return.

First half (just over) of this season: 21 games, 19 points. Very poor, but not quite as dire. A points return that would probably lead to relegation in most seasons, but not all.

So we have at least seen a slight improvement in points return compared to the second half of last season, and it’s been just enough to keep us a fraction ahead of the relegation zone as things stand.

[/special pleading].

There are other figures which are less encouraging, however. Even compared to the second (dire) half of the season under McLeish, our goal-scoring rate so far this season is practically as bad (17 in 21 compared to 15 in 19), and our defensive record is considerably worse (41 in 21 compared to 29 in 19). This not only handicaps us with a very bad goal difference in a tight race for points, but also suggests that we have been a bit lucky to get as many points as we have so far. If no team scores fewer goals than us, and no team lets in so many, we must be pretty bad.

So, beyond any arguments about who has done worse out of McLeish and Lambert, I’d say the bottom line is: Villa are in big trouble and if we don’t improve we’re very likely to go down.

[danceoftheshamen]

I was just going to post defending the number of goals against as being warped by the Chelsea, Southampton, Spurs & Man City results (21 goals against in 4 games) & say that if you took those as somewhat abnormal due to the inexperience in the team/fluke results or whatever, then things were not as bad as they appear.

But then i remember the games when we have been perhaps fortunate to get away with not conceding many...Liverpool (a), QPR (a), Swansea (a) & then suddenly i realised just how bad we actually are as the list just goes on & on & on then you add in Wigan (H), Bradford (a), Everton (H) etc etc & enough said i think.

[PussEKatt]

Here are a few more facts that are worth considering.

There are only 17 games left,they include games against..Man U, Man C, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs,

These games are already lost.

Which means that out of the remaining 11 games we have to get a good result against teams like.Everton, Stoke, Newcastle, WBA.

I think we are down with 17 games still to go.

[CI]

We just have to better the results of the 4 teams below us surely ?

[honest_bertie]

if we are relegated I just hope Lambert stays and we can keep Guzan, Lowton, Vlaar, Westwood, Weiman and Bentekkers, as I see it they are the players to build this squd around. Doubt Ron and Benteke would hang around but I hold out hope.

[danceoftheshamen]

if we are relegated I just hope Lambert stays and we can keep Guzan, Lowton, Vlaar, Westwood, Weiman and Bentekkers, as I see it they are the players to build this squd around. Doubt Ron and Benteke would hang around but I hold out hope.

Think Benteke would deffo be gone.. but then we have Bowery so maybe he'd come good at that level especially?

[magnkarl]

Once Vlaar is back I think we'll be able to stay ahead of soton, qpr and reading, possibly also Wigan and newcastle. Fulham also has a horrible record of late. Our kids will only get better, QPR doesn't really have kids.

[danceoftheshamen]

I think we are maybe ahead of Reading but other than that i'd have QPR, Southampton, Stoke, Wigan (never thought i would hear myself say that), Newcastle, Fulham etc all ahead of us.....However!.. If we got Vlaar, Dunne, Bent, Albrighton, Westwood, Stephens back & stiffened the spine in January... It could be a very different picture & we have a chance... As it stands though.. no chance.

The most important guy at Villa Park at this point for me is................The Physio

Sign the two players Lambert is hinting he's after DM & CB & we could be ok..just.

Edited January 11, 2013 by danceoftheshamen

[tinker]

Newcastle are in a right mess, their captain wants out, lost there best striker.... they look odds on to me to be right amongst it all.

[NormandyVillan]

Here are a few more facts that are worth considering.

There are only 17 games left,they include games against..Man U, Man C, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs,

These games are already lost.

We've already played Spurs twice, so we can't lose to them again. Against the other 5 teams listed, we've so far managed 4 points from 5 games. You can't say were certain to lose to them all second time around.

There are obviously games left that we're heavily odds on to lose. But the same applied to the other relegation candidates. We have enough to worry about without looking at the fixture list and seeing problems that aren't there!

[pacbuddies]

Once Vlaar is back I think we'll be able to stay ahead of soton, qpr and reading, possibly also Wigan and newcastle. Fulham also has a horrible record of late. Our kids will only get better, QPR doesn't really have kids.

Vlaar is good but he is no McNaught, Evans, McGrath or Laursen and I can't understand why people think having him back will be our saving grace. We are in dire trouble and we need more than Vlaar to get us out of it!

[AVFCforever1991]

We just have to better the results of the 4 teams below us surely ?

Easier said than done

[abdulaziz1]

Hello ..

Vlaar is good but he is no McNaught, Evans, McGrath or Laursen and I can't understand why people think having him back will be our saving grace. We are in dire trouble and we need more than Vlaar to get us out of it!

Our worst thing is not we're rubbish .. But it's our lack of confidence !

How could you draw at Swansea .. While lose to Wigan 3-0 !?

We're conceding early which also make our confidence low !

So we need who ever could have some confidence ! ^^

[NormandyVillan]

I have to confess I put money at 7/4 a few weeks back. Hopefully it's a losing bet and not spent on drowning sorrows.

At the moment, the bookmaker’s odds are the most reassuring thing I can see in the current situation!

I don’t know much about bookmakers and betting, and I’ve never bet on anything, but I noted the following odds on Skybet.

Villa to go down: 13/8

Villa to stay up: 4/9

By my calculations, those odds (if they reflected reality) would mean that Villa have a 38 % chance of being relegated, and a 69% chance of staying up.

Now that doesn’t quite add up, of course! I presume this is because the bookmaker’s quoted odds have to be a bit shorter than what the bookmaker perceives as being the real odds on something happening, to ensure that bookmaker makes an overall profit on all the money being bet.

I therefore assume that the reality (as they bookmaker sees it) is somewhere in between the odds quoted on “being relegated” and “staying up” respectively. In other words:

The bookmaker thinks Villa have about a 35 % chance of being relegated and about a 65 % chance of staying up.

Now some people might argue that those odds are very wrong, but it seems logical to me that bookmakers must generally have a reasonable idea about the likelihood of something happening when they quote odds on it. Otherwise they would lose too much money to people who know better than them.

In particular, if Villa are so bad that they’re almost certain to go down (which is admittedly the way things have been looking recently), then those odds of 13/8 are silly and betting people should be piling money on it! But bookmakers can’t afford to offer silly odds (and the odds are actually always fairly similar from one bookmaker to another). So, on the basis of this reasoning, you have to conclude that Villa are still, for whatever reasons, more likely to stay up than go down.

QED

Or have I missed something in my reasoning?

[Big_John_10]

How could you draw at Swansea .. While lose to Wigan 3-0 !?

Our draw to Swansea was down to their poor finishing in the first 15 minutes. Nothing to do with us being good.

We were extremely fortunate to not have been 4-0 down after 15 minutes in that game.

[Dr_Pangloss]

Our draw to Swansea was down to their poor finishing in the first 15 minutes. Nothing to do with us being good.

We were extremely fortunate to not have been 4-0 down after 15 minutes in that game.

Yes this is true, we were murdered in the first half and really should have been losing that one by some distance, they had a few one-on-ones in the first 15 minutes but only finished one of them off.

[villan_007]

Vlaar is good but he is no McNaught, Evans, McGrath or Laursen and I can't understand why people think having him back will be our saving grace. We are in dire trouble and we need more than Vlaar to get us out of it!

How many games as he had?? For me he could easily be as good as those mentioned. As a defender myself, I'd go as far as saying if you dont rate Vlaar you've never kicked a ball in youir life.