Relegation

[pacbuddies]

 

 

 

We can't afford many more slip ups now. Forget Utd game, just keep the score down in that one. Chelsea at home we need to hope they're on the beach but Chelsea have been our nemesis this year so no doubt they'll be out to finish us off.

So that leaves

Stoke a - physical battle , take a point ? 1

Fulham h - literally a must win 3

Sunderland h again a must win 3

Norwich a I think we need a win here 3

Wigan a hopefully we'll be safe before this game, draw 1

So I reckon 11 more points if we don't slip up anywhere so 41 which should be ok

So we increase our points to games ratio to over 1.5 during the next 7 games following a ratio of just over 0.96 in the previous 31 games.

 

Amazing transformation!

 

 

In our last seven games our ratio is 1.43 points per game. Not such an amazing transformation at all.

We'll just forget the fact that 6 of those points were against Reading and QPR shall we.

 

 

Why should we forget that ?

 

We beat two teams that are in the relegation scrap with us and two of the games we've got left are against Sunderland and Wigan, who are also in the same situation as us. Stoke and Norwich aren't exactly sitting pretty either.

 

It makes more sense to compare our last seven games, our current form, with our remaining games than comparing seven games with our last 31 games.

Go for it.

[Big_John_10]

He didn't have to build a new defense? really? Cuellar was out of contract, Collins was sold and both I dare say to get their 25k - 35k a week wages off the wage bill. Warnock had in the main been poor for a couple of seasons, Hutton was a liability and both Warnock and Hutton are clearly earning wages the club aren't willing to foot so have no medium to long term future here anyway.

I often agree with a lot of what you say and know I've shared your opinion on many things over the last few years. But I just can't agree with this.

If he had a decent budget then I would say yes, he should have purchased a new defence. But with his limited budget it's not been a success. You may tell me that Vlaar and Lowton have been ok but our defensive record has been abysmal this year. Absolutely abysmal. We are well on course to concede over 60 league goals. When was the last season that happened? I don't think there's a single bit of evidence to suggest a defence of Hutton Collins Clark Warnock would have done any worse this year.

He built this defence and its been shocking. It's been record breaking shit. That can't be excused.

We didn't get one and I don't place the blame at Lamberts door for that, I blame the chairman as if one thing the signings we did make in January tell us its that we didn't have a pot to piss in when it came to fees and wages.

I'll agree with this. But was Lambert told he'd have a good amount to spend in the January? It still doesn't change how he decided to spend his money in the summer.

We needed numbers and we needed quality

But he didn't have the budget for both. I 100% agree we needed both but it was never going to happen. He had a limited budget and he didn't have to spend it the way he did.

Lamberts biggest **** up was going to 5 at the back and persisting with it for too long. However he is a young, relatively inexperienced manger who was always likely to make mistakes. The main thing is learning from them and if as I suspect he is learning from them it is us that will eventually reap the benefits of that.

One of a few mistakes. He may be learning from them but its also looking like it might be too late. And it's mainly his mistakes that have seen us in this position.

This season was always going to be very, very tough. I think we'll survive though and both manager and players will have learned a lot and be stronger for having come through it.

I hope we can stay up and players can improve from the experience. I see little to suggest next season will be much different.

[Con]

I think sacking MON was the right thing. Sunderland are in such a bad rut - 0 wins in 8 - and have the hardest fixture list of all the struggling sides.

 

Had to do it. A new manager doesn't guarantee a better outcome but it's better than doing nothing.

 

 

Di Canio is charismatic so they are going all out for the New Manager Effect.

 

Sunderland's victories this season:

 

Wigan 1-0

Fulham 1-3

Reading 3-0

Southampton 0-1

Man City 1-0

West Ham 3-0

Wigan 2-3

 

4 home wins, 3 away wins.

 

Remaining fixtures: 4 away, 3 home.

 

Beating a good Man City side on Boxing Day has been the highlight of their season. A number of that team is currently unavailable for selection now.

Edited March 31, 2013 by Con

[Hev]

How many times this season have we built up a bit of momentum, only for yet another bloody international break to come along and **** us up again - I think we've put in a performance like today's after every international break this season.   

[briny_ear]

We can't rely on winning any games for the rest of the season because our defence are so abysmal that they may always throw away any lead our really quite good forwards may gain.

It's going to be a lottery and all those confidently predicting how many points we will get from our forthcoming games are living in dreamland. Whether we stay up depends entirely on how much Benteke and Guzan can compensate for the inadequacies for the rest of the squad. We have no way of predicting that.

Edited March 31, 2013 by briny_ear

[Hev]

I think we are now relying on another team to have a monumental collapse and us to manage to have a freak result (Man U away, Chelsea home maybe!!)   I fear that we are gone. Not because of today because I never expected us to get anything today really, but because of the other teams having more battling power and the ref in the Wigan-v- Newcastle game for completely gifting the game to Wigan

[AstonMartin82]

We can't rely on winning any games for the rest of the season because our defence are so abysmal that they may always throw away any lead our really quite good forwards may gain.

It's going to be a lottery and all those confidently predicting how many points we will get from our forthcoming games are living in dreamland. Whether we stay up depends entirely on how much Benteke and Guzan can compensate for the inadequacies for the rest of the squad. We have no way of predicting that.

 

100% this.

[TRO]

We can't rely on winning any games for the rest of the season because our defence are so abysmal that they may always throw away any lead our really quite good forwards may gain.

It's going to be a lottery and all those confidently predicting how many points we will get from our forthcoming games are living in dreamland. Whether we stay up depends entirely on how much Benteke and Guzan can compensate for the inadequacies for the rest of the squad. We have no way of predicting that.

I concur

[Con]

We should forget about Wigan now. Wigan have a game in hand. Let's assume they win it and get to 33 points.

 

There are six clubs above us within 4 points of the drop zone. They're all in the fight. Stoke and Norwich, won't feel comfortable on 34 points. Sunderland are especially vulnerable on 31 points.

 

If Wigan can get to safety before we play them on the last game of the season, that's great for us. They won't need to fight to win their last game.

 

Arguably we should want Wigan to do well rather than consider them our main competitors.

Edited March 31, 2013 by Con

[jamdog]

 

Interesting comments from Swindon fans, essentially telling Sunderland: you're doooooomed.

 

http://www.readytogo.net/smb/showthread.php?t=770496

 

And this made me chuckle:

Be wary. 

 

Villa fans gave us a fair assumptions of O'Neill. 

 

We laughed it off as bitterness

 

[Condimentalist]

We should forget about Wigan now. Wigan have a game in hand. Let's assume they win it and get to 33 points.

 

There are six clubs above us within 4 points of the drop zone. They're all in the fight. Stoke and Norwich, won't feel comfortable on 34 points. Sunderland are especially vulnerable on 31 points.

 

If Wigan can get to safety before we play them on the last game of the season, that's great for us. They won't need to fight to win their last game.

 

Arguably we should want Wigan to do well rather than consider them our main competitors.

 

Ridiculous post of the day

[villanwesty88]

Look at all the teams sacking their managers. Has it done them any good? No. Yes Lambert could have done things better but I'm glad we're sticking by him. QPR,Reading and Sunderland to go for me. All replaced their managers during the season. Can see sunderland losing the majority of their games now which is a shame because they are a good club that has been completely mismanaged.

Wigan stick by Martinez even though they are shit a lot of the time. If a change is to be made it has to be when the season is over.

Edited April 1, 2013 by villanwesty88

[AVFCforever1991]

We should forget about Wigan now. Wigan have a game in hand. Let's assume they win it and get to 33 points.

 

There are six clubs above us within 4 points of the drop zone. They're all in the fight. Stoke and Norwich, won't feel comfortable on 34 points. Sunderland are especially vulnerable on 31 points.

 

If Wigan can get to safety before we play them on the last game of the season, that's great for us. They won't need to fight to win their last game.

 

Arguably we should want Wigan to do well rather than consider them our main competitors.

 

[lmarsha_926]

Just worked out who has the hardest run in out of the bottom 9 teams based on current points, current form and results in the reverse games.

 

The results came out like this, Hardest is 1

 

1. Sunderland

2. Aston Villa

3. Stoke

4. Reading

5. Wigan

6. QPR

7. Newcastle

8. Norwich

9. Southampton

 

Based on the current table we have the 4th hardest run in, based on current form we have the 2nd easiest, but on results in the reverse fixtures we have the hardest, we only picked up 5 points from the 7 games we have left.

 

What annoys me more is we have 10 pts from 7 games, 4 of them against top 7 teams yet we could of had 14 if not for our own mistakes.

Edited April 1, 2013 by lmarsha_926

[Delphouneso]

Prediction time:

Stoke - Draw
Fulham - Draw
Manure - Loss
Sunderland - Win
Norwich - Draw

Chelsea - Loss

 

I'm pretty certain nine points will guarantee safety, that's six before the Wigan game..

[DiegoD]

Stoke are on a abysmal run at the moment so our game next week is very winnable. Stoke aren't the team at home they were a couple of season ago and we have Clark and Baker fit we can play Baker at LB to help with their set pieces. 

A win next week puts us in a good position (well as good as a relegation battle team can be in). We then have Fulham at home and they have a poor away record.

[danceoftheshamen]

We do still have 4 winnable games left for me.. trouble is we have to win 3 of them which with our shocking defence is more of a lottery than a probability.

 

In effect we start each game at 0-1 due to some ridiculous "moment" from our poxy defence & that means that if the opposition score 1 goal it counts as 2. 

 

So it's whether we can score at least 2/3 goals as to whether we can win that game

 

Looking at the remaining fixtures

 

Stoke (a) i can't see us scoring 3 against Stoke so at best a draw for me.

 

Fulham (h)   i think we will maybe need to score 3/4 to win this one as i'm sure they will score.

 

Man U (a) More chance of the Pope resigning lol!  ....Oh hang on!

 

Sunderland (h) is simply now a must win.. Lose this & we are down

 

Norwich (a) This could be a saviour fixture.. They will have played Reading (h) & Stoke (a) just before so may be safe by then

 

Chelsea (h) I think we all know that this lot will have a sudden surge in form just in time for playing us, t**sers.

 

Wigan (a) I can't see anything other than a defeat here

 

Summary:  we need to be safe by the time we have played Norwich (a) we have 5 games to save our bacon & we need 3 wins from next 5 otherwise it's prayer mat time.

Edited April 1, 2013 by danceoftheshamen

[Villarocker]

Our biggest problem is that we need to score at least two goals every game if we are to have any chance of winning. Playing a midfield three of Bannan, Westwood & Sylla virtually nullifies the chances of that happening.

I actually thought Baker was our best defender yesterday, despite the penalty. I would rather see him stay at CB and have Clark on the bench. Bring Delph back in alongside Westwood and have N'Zogbia in behind the strikers. The emphasis has to be on getting goals because the other end is open to **** ups every game.

[poitier]

Our biggest problem is that we need to score at least two goals every game if we are to have any chance of winning. Playing a midfield three of Bannan, Westwood & Sylla virtually nullifies the chances of that happening.

 

 

I certainly don't think Bannan will play against Stoke, I would expect Delph to come back in and stay in for the rest of the season. Delph/Westwood/Sylla is probably the best midfield we have got (unless playing 4-2-3-1 with Nzog in place of Sylla), and although that doesn't fill me with confidence it doesn't fill me with dread either.

[Papillon]

I have said it several times before, Wigan are always down there for a reason. And since they change the team so often it's not that they have a better chance of avoiding relegation every year, that is plain circumstance. Same manager, but they lose their players all the time. To say we cannot win against Wigan or that they are safe, even though they are on equal point - well that is also nonsense. The only certainty here is that poor sides never keep form, just like we cannot expect to win against Liverpool when we have two on the trot beforehand. Law of average etc, they have 3 wins out of the last 5 and so did we going into the weekend. They will have to play away 5 times from hereon in, 

 

QPR and Reading are ****, too few games to catch the rest since the others will also obtain points here and there.

 

It's about Villa, Wigan and Sunderland. One of these will go down. Newcastle have too much quality for relegation and have that little cushion of points IMO, as well as no away games against top sides. Wigan have 5 away games left, one of them are Man City away.