Title race 2023/4

[Mark Albrighton]

In the spirit of compromise, I fortunately have with me a What the ****?!? o-meter.

The What the ****?!? o-meter measures the general shock levels when a given event happens.

So when Man City won the league this year, the What the ****?!? o-meter gave a recording of 1 out of 10 which corresponds to a shrugged “what else is new?” type response.

When Leicester won it in 2016, the recording was 10 out of 10. Very much a “What the ****?!?” response.

If Villa won it in 2024, the recording I think would be somewhere around 7 out of 10. So, closer to Leicester’s win than Man City. But different, less out of the blue as it were.

I should add that the What the **** o-meter is measuring the wider response. If it was to concentrate on the response of just Villa supporters the reading would inevitably be off the scale and instead would try and quantify the shock level by estimating the number of VT members reprimanded for drunkenly riding the mechanical bull at New Street station on the final day of the season.

[Sulberto21]

4 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

In the spirit of compromise, I fortunately have with me a What the ****?!? o-meter.

The What the ****?!? o-meter measures the general shock levels when a given event happens.

So when Man City won the league this year, the What the ****?!? o-meter gave a recording of 1 out of 10 which corresponds to a shrugged “what else is new?” type response.

When Leicester won it in 2016, the recording was 10 out of 10. Very much a “What the ****?!?” response.

If Villa won it in 2024, the recording I think would be somewhere around 7 out of 10. So, closer to Leicester’s win than Man City. But different, less out of the blue as it were.

I should add that the What the **** o-meter is measuring the wider response. If it was to concentrate on the response of just Villa supporters the reading would inevitably be off the scale and instead would try and quantify the shock level by estimating the number of VT members reprimanded for drunkenly riding the mechanical bull at New Street station on the final day of the season.

Margot Robbie and me getting it on … wtfo meter says 10…… she’s hit the jackpot 

[Mic09]

1 hour ago, Stevo985 said:

But Leicester happened in recent memory. And they're similar situations.

Pundits aren't going to say "Oh villa are doing a Aston Villa from 28 seasons ago" are they?  

I don't understand why people are being so precious.

 

We're being compared to Leicester because they unexpectedly won the league. That's it. it's not that deep.

It's a **** compliment

Of course it's a compliment.

Just 12 months ago people were saying we are doing a Fulham.

At this rate in season 25/26 we might even be doing a Brighton or a Newcastle!

[MotoMkali]

2 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

Of course it's a compliment.

Just 12 months ago people were saying we are doing a Fulham.

At this rate in season 25/26 we might even be doing a Brighton or a Newcastle!

No they weren't. Doing a Fulham is getting promoted spending 150 mil and going back down. 

[Mic09]

14 minutes ago, MotoMkali said:

No they weren't. Doing a Fulham is getting promoted spending 150 mil and going back down. 

They were saying we were gonna do a Fulham. It was a common narrative.

[stewiek2]

Good video from Jim Allcott...

 

 

 

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

45 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

I just find it really weird that people are taking this so badly.

Why? 

Why are people offended that other fans and pundits are surprised that we're 3rd in the table? VILLA FANS are surprised that we're third. but if anyone else says it then it's disrespectful?

 

I don't get it

If it were up to some of our fans, Garth Crooks team of the week would feature our first 11 every week, we would have a two hour long feature on MOTD every week, all our players , including the non English ones would be in the England first XI and they would still moan about why we aren't getting enough praise from media

( This is more based on the moaning I see on Social Media )

[It's Your Round]

In my 30 years as a Villa fan, I don’t think I’ve ever seen Villa get as much attention as they are now. We are very popular across the different content producers’ platforms, both fan led and professional. Whether we are in the title race or not, people are starting to take notice of us. 

[rubberman]

2 hours ago, useless said:

No one hails my good points so as revenge I say why we aren't in the title race

Our current form as good as it is isn't good enough to win a league title, it's going to be incredibly difficult to keep that up never mind improve upon it

Man City will probably have a spell where they go on a ten plus game winning run or something like that, they're capable of it, Liverpool might do similar too

We have too many results like Wolves, Forest, and Bournemouth ones, there are other examples in the Cups, would hardly be the biggest surprise if we dropped points against Brentford, these results aren't disasters in of themselves, perfectly normal for where we are to have occasional results like that, but they don't match up to the idea that we're in a title race.

One can say we're in a title race until we're not but can say that about any team, doesn't make it realistic, can also say any team is in a relegation battle until they're not

we've still got long way to go to finish top four yet before we even think of top place, i'm still of the mind that top anwyere in the top six would be a great league season

Our current form is good enough. We are 2 points off top, and whether calendar year, or since Unai arrived, we are one of the top 2 or 3 sides.

Yes, City might go on a run, but equally, they are in more of a 'crisis' than they have been in previous years and as things stand it is in our hands.

Everyone is having the odd poor result. It's a tough league. Ours are no worse than the other contenders.

There are, at a stretch, 5 clubs still in the title race. We are one. Same with relegation (as Everton will pull away again soon).

Agree - top 6 would be OK, but top 5 (and CL) should be the minimum from here. But I don't see why a good tilt at the top spot is unrealistic - just need to keep on what we've been doing.

[Made In Aston]

5 hours ago, Adman said:

Forget it lads, Garth Crooks has spoken:

"However, talk of winning the title is sheer fantasy. There's more chance of Prince William taking charge of Villa's remaining fixtures than them winning the Premier League"

 

Imagine if this did happen though

[useless]

Our form isn't title winning form, that isn't a criticism since I don't expect us to win the title or close, it's just the way it is, the amount of points required is usually in the high eighties or in the nineties, we haven't been in that kind of form, The Ice Kings were able to win it when they did with a low points tally because there were no teams in the league that season as good as the likes of Man City, Liverpool, and Arsenal are now, people setting themselves up for disappontment if they think we genuinely have a good chance of winning the league, we can hope but a swear it's a way way long-shot

Edited December 11, 2023 by useless

[turvontour]

2 minutes ago, useless said:

Our form isn't title winning form, that isn't a criticism since I don't expect us to win the title or close, it's just the way it is, the amount of points required is usually in the high eighties or in the nineties, he haven't been that kind of form, The Ice Kings were able to win it when they did with low points tally because there were no teams in the league that season as good as the likes of Man City, Liverpool, and Arsenal are now, people setting themselves up for disappontment if they think we genuinely have a good chance of winning the league, we can hope but a swear it's a way way long-shot

But we are getting better though aren't we? Not standing still or getting else. So it can be title winning form.

[jimmygreaves]

1 hour ago, stewiek2 said:

Good video from Jim Allcott...

 

 

 

There's a great quote at the end of that vid.

"Villa aren't here to take part, they're here to take over!"

[Stevo985]

23 minutes ago, rubberman said:

Our current form is good enough. We are 2 points off top, and whether calendar year, or since Unai arrived, we are one of the top 2 or 3 sides.

It isn't really though. 

The minimum points total needed to win the league over the past 7 or 8 seasons was 87 (on the assumption we'd need one more point than the team that did win the league)

That requires a PPG of around 2.4 to achieve from where we are.

We are currently around 2.2. So even to reach the lowest tally needed to win the league in the last 7 seasons, we'd need to improve even more

 

 

Now of course there's no guarantee we'd need that many points. But it seems likely

[MotoMkali]

1 hour ago, Mic09 said:

They were saying we were gonna do a Fulham. It was a common narrative.

When we first got promoted about 4 years ago. Not 12 months ago

[Mic09]

34 minutes ago, MotoMkali said:

When we first got promoted about 4 years ago. Not 12 months ago

Ok, my timing was wrong, but the point is we are being compared with Fulham, Leicester etc. 

[rubberman]

32 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

It isn't really though. 

The minimum points total needed to win the league over the past 7 or 8 seasons was 87 (on the assumption we'd need one more point than the team that did win the league)

That requires a PPG of around 2.4 to achieve from where we are.

We are currently around 2.2. So even to reach the lowest tally needed to win the league in the last 7 seasons, we'd need to improve even more

 

 

Now of course there's no guarantee we'd need that many points. But it seems likely

I think this season will be a lower winning total than we've seen for a bit. There are more sides in contention (generally) who can take points off the 'top' teams and no standout side looking unbeatable. Apart from the promoted sides pretty much everyone else would fancy their chances in most games. Fulham, Bournemouth, Everton - all mid-table (kind of in Everton's case), but getting results. Arsenal and Liverpool only just getting past Luton, Palace, Fulham etc. You may well be right that we don't have enough and eg City might win 20 in a row or whatever, but I'm on the belief train for now.

[MotoMkali]

3 minutes ago, rubberman said:

I think this season will be a lower winning total than we've seen for a bit. There are more sides in contention (generally) who can take points off the 'top' teams and no standout side looking unbeatable. Apart from the promoted sides pretty much everyone else would fancy their chances in most games. Fulham, Bournemouth, Everton - all mid-table (kind of in Everton's case), but getting results. Arsenal and Liverpool only just getting past Luton, Palace, Fulham etc. You may well be right that we don't have enough and eg City might win 20 in a row or whatever, but I'm on the belief train for now.

Plus why not be on the belief train, it's our best chance at the league trophy in my lifetime we may as well enjoy it. 

[Rightdm00]

6 hours ago, Adman said:

Forget it lads, Garth Crooks has spoken:

"However, talk of winning the title is sheer fantasy. There's more chance of Prince William taking charge of Villa's remaining fixtures than them winning the Premier League"

 

Really, really upset I put a mere fiver on us to win at 30/1. Every pundit that declares we have no chance only tells me we absolutely do. 

[ThunderPower_14]

I don't get the argument that we're not in title winning form. We're 2 points off top almost half way through.

It's a tight season in the toughest league in the world. Liverpool are the only team meeting that 87 point watermark at the moment, and there are 2 teams within 2 points of them right now. If we're not in title winning form, nobody is, but they're going to hand out a trophy at the end of the year anyway. Our projected points tally of 83 would have won us the title in 8 premier league seasons. I'd argue the final tally might be lower than it has been in recent seasons because there are a bigger spread of very good teams who will be nicking points from each other than in previous years.

The big test is obviously the back half of the season where our regulars are sore, tired and have niggles and Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal can replace those players with players worth 5-10 times what our replacements are worth.