Title race 2023/4

[Mark Albrighton]

16 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

People's issue seems to be that we're being portrayed as an underdog with the Leicester comparisons because people think we're a big club.

We might be historically a big club, but we haven't' been mixing it with big clubs for 30 years.

People need to check their arrogance about Villa. It's one thing to be proud, but to be delusional to the point where your downplaying what we're potentially achieving isn't a good look.

We were in a relegation battle a year ago. Now we're posting in a a thread about winning the title. And it's not ironic! The comparisons to Leicester are obvious

I can assure you now, as far as I’m concerned this is not my thinking in the slightest. I am basing it on the evidence that was on offer at that time and this current time.

We saw Leicester drastically improve towards the end of their season in 2014/15. It was April onwards. They did really well. However, if you look back at who they played it’s not like they’re beating Liverpool or Man City or the like. They go on a run of beating mostly the also rans of the league. They finish 14th.

This was all happening under Pearson.

They appoint Ranieri in the summer. There is NO evidence whatsoever what a Ranieri Leicester side is going to be. There is nothing to suggest that they will go on to win the league. 

Emery comes in a third of the way into the season, we improve. He shows this team, playing the way he wants them to, CAN beat Man Utd, Spurs, Chelsea, Brighton, Newcastle…we finish 7th. We therefore know that his team can compete with clubs higher up in the league, because we have seen it.

To offer some balance, I am fairly surprised we beat both Man City and Arsenal in back to back games, clean sheets as well. Fantastic. 

I am pleasantly surprised we are currently third.

But I am not massively shocked we are doing better than Man Utd, Spurs, Chelsea, Brighton, Newcastle…because Emery has shown us last season that he can get Villa playing better than those clubs. I would have guessed we’d had the six points from Bournemouth and Forest, not City and Arsenal.

I am basing it on the evidence we have had the opportunity to see. We had zero evidence or expectation with Ranieri. We saw what we saw with Emery.

If people want to call us a “surprise” package, great. It’s not the same as doing a Leicester.

Honestly, this currently feels more the 1995/96 season.

[useless]

24 minutes ago, useless said:

Aston Villa winning the Premier League title can be both remarkable and a shock if were to happen, but also not particularly comparable to when Leicester won it, other than both being a shock, but Leicester was a much bigger shock than if we were to do it, and it's not even close, that wasn't just a shock, but one of the biggest shocks in sporting history.

Leicester had spent the previous season fighting relegation and were tipped to do the same again, they had barely spent any money, the only player they signed that summer that played a major part was Kanté but at the time of his signing no one knew he was to become the player he did, they had also had to replace Pearson in the summer who had done well for them, and Ranieri wasn't seen as a good replacement, they weren't even expected to finish anywhere near top half never mind win the league.

Us winning  the title would also be a major shock, but not to the same level as when Leicester did it, we finished seventh last season, have team full of players that if they were to move on would go to other top clubs, and have one of the most highly rated managers in world football

I'm not actually sure if all this talk of winning the title is helpful anyway, as might lead to a scenario where we have a very good season say of finishing sixth or fifth, but because it dosn't match this kind of talk that good finish ends up getting looked upon by many as a failure or disapointment, whereas in fact it would have been une saison fantastique

I think some have just forgotten how much of a shock Leicester winning the league was, they're not viewing them as they were at the time, but how they've been viewed since, so are talking as if it was a shock similar to if we or Newcastle were to win the league, but it was way more of shock than those two hypothetical scnarios, as I said previously the thing that would come closest to the shock of Leicster winning the league is if Bournemouth were to do it, they're closest in profle to Leicester going into the season when they won the title, they are in their second season after promotion, were in a relegation battle the last season, and have a manager from Europe that has recently replaced an English manager.

[Stevo985]

46 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

It’s not playing it down. It’s been wonderful. It is remarkable.

It’s just not doing a Leicester. It’s such a lazy, poor comparison for the reasons I outlined. 

Just out of interest were Newcastle “doing a Leicester” last season? They were bottom of the league with a poor manager in the season prior. They replace him. They improve. They spent most of last season in the top four. I don’t remember it being called as such.

I don’t think they “did a Leicester”.

I don’t think we are.

Because Newcastle weren't challenging for the title. If they did then the comparisons would probably have been there.

They also had been bought by the richest club owners in the world which makes a huge difference.

I just don' understand why people are annoyed by the comparisons. They're obvious.
Team who haven't done anything for decades, spent time in the championship and were recently facing relegation are suddenly challenging for the title. Why is that bad?

[Stevo985]

10 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

I can assure you now, as far as I’m concerned this is not my thinking in the slightest. I am basing it on the evidence that was on offer at that time and this current time.

We saw Leicester drastically improve towards the end of their season in 2014/15. It was April onwards. They did really well. However, if you look back at who they played it’s not like they’re beating Liverpool or Man City or the like. They go on a run of beating mostly the also rans of the league. They finish 14th.

This was all happening under Pearson.

They appoint Ranieri in the summer. There is NO evidence whatsoever what a Ranieri Leicester side is going to be. There is nothing to suggest that they will go on to win the league. 

Emery comes in a third of the way into the season, we improve. He shows this team, playing the way he wants them to, CAN beat Man Utd, Spurs, Chelsea, Brighton, Newcastle…we finish 7th. We therefore know that his team can compete with clubs higher up in the league, because we have seen it.

To offer some balance, I am fairly surprised we beat both Man City and Arsenal in back to back games, clean sheets as well. Fantastic. 

I am pleasantly surprised we are currently third.

But I am not massively shocked we are doing better than Man Utd, Spurs, Chelsea, Brighton, Newcastle…because Emery has shown us last season that he can get Villa playing better than those clubs. I would have guessed we’d had the six points from Bournemouth and Forest, not City and Arsenal.

I am basing it on the evidence we have had the opportunity to see. We had zero evidence or expectation with Ranieri. We saw what we saw with Emery.

If people want to call us a “surprise” package, great. It’s not the same as doing a Leicester.

Honestly, this currently feels more the 1995/96 season.

But Leicester happened in recent memory. And they're similar situations.

Pundits aren't going to say "Oh villa are doing a Aston Villa from 28 seasons ago" are they?  

I don't understand why people are being so precious.

 

We're being compared to Leicester because they unexpectedly won the league. That's it. it's not that deep.

It's a **** compliment

[Stevo985]

40 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

I'm not sure we were truly in a relegation battle last season. Emery took over early on in the season, and we never really looked back. Maybe if the clearing in the woods had stayed in charge, but he wasn't, so we were never in that mix to actually go down IMO.

We were before Emery took over. 

Which again shows what an achievement it has been to get to where we are now.

But people are seemingly desperate to find reasons why it's actually not that unexpected because we eneded up 7th last season and we won the league cup 27 years ago so of course we could win the league

[StefanAVFC]

3 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

We were before Emery took over. 

Which again shows what an achievement it has been to get to where we are now.

But people are seemingly desperate to find reasons why it's actually not that unexpected because we eneded up 7th last season and we won the league cup 27 years ago so of course we could win the league

Yeah I agree with you. That we're in a title race is absolutely mental. Yes we've been on a consistently upward trajectory, but I honestly expected we'd finish about 8th and probably make a good run at the ECL, especially with the Newcastle humbling, and the injuries at the start of the season.

Edited December 11, 2023 by StefanAVFC

[Vive_La_Villa]

Villa winning the league wouldn’t quite be on the shock level of Leicester but it would still be pretty **** shocking ! 

[Mark Albrighton]

19 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

But Leicester happened in recent memory. And they're similar situations.

Pundits aren't going to say "Oh villa are doing a Aston Villa from 28 seasons ago" are they?  

I don't understand why people are being so precious.

 

We're being compared to Leicester because they unexpectedly won the league. That's it. it's not that deep.

It's a **** compliment

I get it’s a compliment.

It’s just not particularly accurate.

Ok Newcastle’s owners are extremely wealthy. How does our spending compare to Leicester’s at the time? Comparable is it?

Edit - also, Newcastle after 17 games were second. They were a about 6 points behind Arsenal, but still, 2nd. And they were ahead of the eventual winners, so were they not in the race at that point?

You keep saying we were in a relegation battle. Within a matter of a fortnight of Emery being here, we weren’t. So come on.

I don’t expect them to compare us to our season 28 years ago. But I think it’s a closer approximation.

Personally I think it’s massively undervaluing what Leicester did. Oh look a team that finished 7th last season are currently 3rd as the halfway point of the season draws close…they’re doing a Leicester!!!

Edited December 11, 2023 by Mark Albrighton

[lapal_fan]

 

Probably already been shared, but thought the analysis was pretty good, bar the little comparison to Leicester, as we've seen over the last page or two.  

[Sulberto21]

It was more of a shock that we were in a relegation battle with the amount of money that we spent. Last season we finished where we should have finished in a normal season. Don Unai overachieved with the squad to end up seventh. 

[Stevo985]

13 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

I get it’s a compliment.

It’s just not particularly accurate.

Ok Newcastle’s owners are extremely wealthy. How does our spending compare to Leicester’s at the time? Comparable is it?

Edit - also, Newcastle after 17 games were second. They were a about 6 points behind Arsenal, but still, 2nd. And they were ahead of the eventual winners, so were they not in the race at that point?

You keep saying we were in a relegation battle. Within a matter of a fortnight of Emery being here, we weren’t. So come on.

I don’t expect them to compare us to our season 28 years ago. But I think it’s a closer approximation.

Personally I think it’s massively undervaluing what Leicester did. Oh look a team that finished 7th last season are currently 3rd as the halfway point of the season draws close…they’re doing a Leicester!!!

It's not that deep. Nobody is analysing spending levels.

It's just Leicester won it unexpectedly, could villa do the same. That's really all it is, imo

[useless]

No one hails my good points so as revenge I say why we aren't in the title race

Our current form as good as it is isn't good enough to win a league title, it's going to be incredibly difficult to keep that up never mind improve upon it

Man City will probably have a spell where they go on a ten plus game winning run or something like that, they're capable of it, Liverpool might do similar too

We have too many results like Wolves, Forest, and Bournemouth ones, there are other examples in the Cups, would hardly be the biggest surprise if we dropped points against Brentford, these results aren't disasters in of themselves, perfectly normal for where we are to have occasional results like that, but they don't match up to the idea that we're in a title race.

One can say we're in a title race until we're not but can say that about any team, doesn't make it realistic, can also say any team is in a relegation battle until they're not

we've still got long way to go to finish top four yet before we even think of top place, i'm still of the mind that top anwyere in the top six would be a great league season

[Mark Albrighton]

7 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

It's not that deep. Nobody is analysing spending levels.

It's just Leicester won it unexpectedly, could villa do the same. That's really all it is, imo

Ok so if no one is analysing spending levels, Newcastle who were second in the league after 16 games, ahead of the eventual winners, having been rooted to the bottom of the league the previous season…doing a Leicester.

Except they weren’t, were they?

And we’re not. 

We are a surprise package. We are doing better than basically everyone expected. It is wonderful.

It’s just not Leicester.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Mark Albrighton

[It's Your Round]

I can see where pundits are coming from with the Leicester comments, it’s a complementary but lazy comparison borne from Leicester being the most recent surprise winners of the league. When you dig deeper (as Mark Albrighton has), you can see it’s not an accurate example. But you also have to remember that pundits don’t follow Villa as closely as we do, so they’ll clutch at the nearest sound bite or cliche to make their point. We had it with the whole ‘doing a Fulham’ thing, people can’t help making lazy comparisons. Don’t worry about it. 

[MrBlack]

3 hours ago, VillaJ100 said:

The closest thing was a 3 game losing streak to Leicester at home, man city away, arsenal at home.

And that Arsenal game was the last time we dropped any points at Villa Park.  So as a bad run of "results", it's been followed by an exceptional run for a very very long time. 

[MrBlack]

4 minutes ago, It's Your Round said:

I can see where pundits are coming from with the Leicester comments, it’s a complementary but lazy comparison borne from Leicester being the most recent surprise winners of the league. When you dig deeper (as Mark Albrighton has), you can see it’s not an accurate example. But you also have to remember that pundits don’t follow Villa as closely as we do, so they’ll clutch at the nearest sound bite or cliche to make their point. We had it with the whole ‘doing a Fulham’ thing, people can’t help making lazy comparisons. Don’t worry about it. 

Exactly what I wanted to say on the matter. At a very high level, they're kind of similar, and most of the pundits mentioning it are doing so at that high level. They're not going on to say we'll drop away next season, they're not even saying it's as big of a shock, so they're not even wrong to say that it has similarities. It does... just not many and none that really stand up to detailed scrutiny. 

We all know the standard of the media, so not really worth getting wound up about.

[ozvillafan]

I'm not seeing the argument here.

Are we in a title race? Yes. We are 2 points from the top.

Will we win it? Unllikely. We have a lot of footballl to play and a small-ish squad.

Can we address that? Maybe. Jan window soon - but that doesn't mean quality is available.

Is it exciting? Is it what!

[KangarooVillan]

Life has become so complex and nuanced on VT - ‘Is Villa being in the title race a big shock, moderate shock, or not a shock at all?’

Can’t help but miss the simpler days of is McGinn shit or is he not.

[turvontour]

1 hour ago, Stevo985 said:

We were before Emery took over. 

Which again shows what an achievement it has been to get to where we are now.

But people are seemingly desperate to find reasons why it's actually not that unexpected because we eneded up 7th last season and we won the league cup 27 years ago so of course we could win the league

But we were about the 2nd or 3rd best team in the league last season from the second Emery walked in. It was almost like 2 different clubs pre and post Emery.

One of the Arsenal podcast things annoyed me yesterday as they kept referring to us as the form team in the league. We're not. We're the most boringly consistent team in the league for the last 12 months. Our output is a points tally that has you 2nd or 3rd in the Premier league. Week to week, month to month, for ages.

This season shouldn't be much of a surprise at all as nothings changed from last season. Leicester meanwhile was nuts.

[Stevo985]

3 minutes ago, turvontour said:

But we were about the 2nd or 3rd best team in the league last season from the second Emery walked in. It was almost like 2 different clubs pre and post Emery.

One of the Arsenal podcast things annoyed me yesterday as they kept referring to us as the form team in the league. We're not. We're the most boringly consistent team in the league for the last 12 months. Our output is a points tally that has you 2nd or 3rd in the Premier league. Week to week, month to month, for ages.

This season shouldn't be much of a surprise at all as nothings changed from last season. Leicester meanwhile was nuts.

I just find it really weird that people are taking this so badly.

Why? 

Why are people offended that other fans and pundits are surprised that we're 3rd in the table? VILLA FANS are surprised that we're third. but if anyone else says it then it's disrespectful?

 

I don't get it