January Transfer Window 2024

[DJBOB]

35 minutes ago, nick76 said:

JJ for 30-40m? We would be wanting significantly more than that surely? Palmer and Gordon went for £40m with far far less experience in the PL…not that we’d sell either.

At a minimum I think. Could easily go for more especially if he has a roaring second half. 

[nick76]

1 hour ago, DJBOB said:

At a minimum I think. Could easily go for more especially if he has a roaring second half. 

I don’t think we’d even pick up the phone for £40m starting offer.

[Marka Ragnos]

I've got no either/or thinking re: the january transfer window. We must this or musn't that etc. It seems obvious we don't have any catastrophic needs at the moment, but I expect our recruitment team to be monitoring ever-appearing, ever-changing, ever-vanishing opportunities carefully -- and if a tasty deal comes along (for a right back or back-up keeper, for instance), we jump on, but not in a way that hampers us in the summer? That's my 2 p.

[MWARLEY2]

3 hours ago, DJBOB said:

At a minimum I think. Could easily go for more especially if he has a roaring second half. 

JJ has elite potential. He is valued accordingly by transfer sites.  He has all the physical and technical attributes required.  We wouldnt sell him for anything as he is the local boy doing good.  But if we did it would be 100 million 

 

[MWARLEY2]

Thinking about any ins and outs in Jan. Monchi hasnt come here to sit on his hands. It has probably been highlighted that we dont have 200 million to spend every season like it seems many others do. So he will have come in to wheel and deal and get a better and better squad. I still think Acuna is one they do want. With Digne going somewhere else. Not because we don't like him. But because we can pay Acuna 4 mill less a year probably. Thats how tight things will be for us.  We will have the same infrastructure costs as the top 4 but with a ton load less revenue to pay for it. So we will need someone clever to get maximum value out of our sales and subsequent purchases. 

[Awol]

4 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Spurious link to Frimpong again today, apparently the release clause in new contract is 37 million.

Wonder if they were doing each other a favour with recently signed new contract?

Frimpong makes a lot of sense. He already has a good connection with Diaby and Bailey, would work well as a right wing back if we play three CBs more often next season (Mings will be fit by then), is absolutely rapid, and would balance well with Moreno on the other side. Would be a brilliant signing if we can get him - and don’t have to rely on his defensive abilities too much.
 

[VillaChris]

Dodged one with Asensio.

Watched last 20 minutes and all he did after coming on was firing awful shots 20 yards over the bar from ridiculous positions.

Kang-Lee looked lively.

I do feel some of these players we're getting linked with are getting a bit overrated. Nico Williams is talented but I wouldn't say signing him alone guarantees top 4. Diaby looked very good first few months but he's dipped lately so think other young forwards we'd sign would have same consistency issues.

Goncalo Ramos came on for PSG. He did well for Portugal in the World cup and they said he has 60m or so buyout so I wonder if PSG don't take up the option whether that's someone who may be of interest with potential CL football to offer.

[VillaChris]

7 hours ago, DJBOB said:

How many players do we have with real resale value to fund more purchases though?

Some of the dross will be sold but I'm not well versed in the FPP-ness of any value coming from selling Sanson, Dendoncker, etc.

Then you start looking at some of the higher value names.

Luiz, Kamara, Watkins, JJ, Konsa, McGinn, Bailey running down his contract. If we do end up qualifying for UCL, that means most of their form will have been good and will demand high values if someone is willing to buy. You're looking at something like 80M+ for either Luiz or Watkins. JJ and Kamara as young talents, you could see in the 30-40m+ range.

Some hard questions this summer.

Bailey's having a good season with the minutes playing. Next summer it's either a new deal or sell him on the back of productive season to Spain or Bundesliga (Dortmund might fancy him?).

Luiz is a total must keep for me. With Mings injury Konsa has really stepped up so he's in that bracket aswell. McGinn's an interesting one. Would be plenty of interest if we put him for sale (he'd be ideal for Newcastle with how they play in midfield) but he will be 30 early next season so wouldn't go for a ridiculous fee.

The way I see it I wonder if Ramsey might be sacrificed at some stage. He starts getting called up by England and I'd put him in the 50-60m bracket personally. Would be a huge call given his vast potential but ultimately he isn't going to be playing central midfield very much with how solid we are as a unit there and we've done well with him barely figuring so far this season.

The Monchi model at Sevilla was to sell homegrown talents like Ramos and Jesus Navas when the time was right and that was with them winning europa leagues and playing in the CL.

Edited November 29, 2023 by VillaChris

[Tomaszk]

44 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Dodged one with Asensio.

Watched last 20 minutes and all he did after coming on was firing awful shots 20 yards over the bar from ridiculous positions.

He's also been injured half the season.

Very glad to have missed out there.

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

45 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Dodged one with Asensio.

Watched last 20 minutes and all he did after coming on was firing awful shots 20 yards over the bar from ridiculous positions.

Kang-Lee looked lively.

I do feel some of these players we're getting linked with are getting a bit overrated. Nico Williams is talented but I wouldn't say signing him alone guarantees top 4. Diaby looked very good first few months but he's dipped lately so think other young forwards we'd sign would have same consistency issues.

Goncalo Ramos came on for PSG. He did well for Portugal in the World cup and they said he has 60m or so buyout so I wonder if PSG don't take up the option whether that's someone who may be of interest with potential CL football to offer.

In fairness mate, you literally watched 20 minutes of a cameo and decided this.

Scouts, Managers and clubs don't do this. Lol

Anyone could watch snippets of some of our best players when they've been out of form and come to similar conclusions.

[CVByrne]

We need to be smart with transfer while the club revenue increases. Qualification for EL/CL is a revenue boost. The European games this season help too. This season will be the last of the Jack sale on our FFP calcs so that's used for calculation of next seasons numbers (3 year period). 

We will hopefully get sales / exists for. Chambers, Hause, Dendonker, Sanson, Traore. Then possibly sell some youth with buy backs ala Iroegbunam, KKH, Azaz (after successful loans). Lenglet and Coutinho (complete loan and go back out on Loan).

Then we're into first team players, Digne being sold on balance of accounts is sensible especially as he's increasing his market value by playing so well.

We then have the new contracts which reduce our amortisation cost of those players more than their increase in wages. Watkins has signed, Bailey will get new one too. 

We should have some some scope to play with to sign another 3/4 players. Ideally a CM, GK, Fwd and LB

[Shaun Teales Moustache]

We'll never be a top team if we sell our best players, so I think these guys are untouchable:

Martinez

Watkins

Luiz

Kamara

 

These guys are probably not on the market (either due to injuries or recently signed, and all top players):

Moreno

Torres

Carlos

Mings

Tielemans

Buendia

Diaby

Duran

 

These guys, everyone would be happy to sell, but if there was any market, they'd probably be gone already:

Olsen 

Chambers

Dendonker 

Traore

 

So, if we were to sell a player/players to balance the books, I think it would probably be one or two of these -

Cash (~30m) - Valuable, international but homegrown, modern fullback that loads of teams would appreciate that he will run all day and give his all in attack and defence, but he's not a great fit for the systems we play. We need a new RB anyway, could target both an attacking and defensive RB instead of a tweener like Cash, and still probably turn a profit.

Digne (~15m) - Wages seem to be a bit of an issue for FFP, and it's not great having both LBs over 30 and having had injury issues. It would require an Ings like business decision to move on though. He's a valuable member of the squad, but there might be better uses for his 3.5m p/w. 

Konsa (~35m) - If he gets a look in with England (which he does deserve despite my reservations about him as a player), his value will skyrocket. If Harry Maguire is a 75m player, I'd easily take 90m for Konsa. He's good but flawed and if Mings recovers, Konsa is an OK defensive RB or else on the bench because Mings and Torres are both better by a distance, and Carlos is also infinitely better on the ball, if he can ever get back to staying fit and being a solid defender imo.

Ramsey (~60m) - young, English, scores goals, so probably worth at least 70m. Yet up to the time he got injured, I was still expecting Aaron to be the better player. Aaron has better technique, Jacob has better physicality. Aaron just never seemed to make the physical jump that Jacob did. Jacob is a quality player, but he's not a Grealish yet and I don't think he has another jump like that in him. Hopefully he'll kick into another gear, but the money he would bring in would probably fund a whole transfer window, and we haven't really missed him being out, even with Buendia also out. 

Bailey (~35m) - seems crazy to contemplate selling him now that he looks just like the player we thought we were signing. He was out of position up front and is now statistically the most productive player in the league iirc, playing exactly where he wants. If we sell him now, another team gets a bargain. He's currently better than Nico Williams may ever be, which illustrates how hard it will be to actually improve that position if we sell him.

McGinn (~50m) - the one I'd least like to let go, but his return to magnificence means he's valuable. His age and the squad depth at his position mean he's vulnerable, so with Tielemans and Ramsey in the squad, he's also ultimately somewhat replaceable. 50m would probably be too hard to turn down, but it would still hurt if he went for that. Ramsey is worth more on the market, but McGinn is more important to the team right now, so if we want to target Champions League Ramsey would be the smarter sell imo. 

 

[Zatman]

7 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Dodged one with Asensio.

Watched last 20 minutes and all he did after coming on was firing awful shots 20 yards over the bar from ridiculous positions.

Kang-Lee looked lively.

I do feel some of these players we're getting linked with are getting a bit overrated. Nico Williams is talented but I wouldn't say signing him alone guarantees top 4. Diaby looked very good first few months but he's dipped lately so think other young forwards we'd sign would have same consistency issues.

Goncalo Ramos came on for PSG. He did well for Portugal in the World cup and they said he has 60m or so buyout so I wonder if PSG don't take up the option whether that's someone who may be of interest with potential CL football to offer.

Last night was his first game since August

[SimonVilla]

Saw a link to Tierney - no idea if there is any truth in it. I wonder if Digne out and Tierney in might be a sensible switch at some point.

Key addition in Jan/the summer feels like a right back who can help build attacks, Cash has brilliant athleticism, but lacks a calmness that is key to the way Emery wants us to play.

Beyond that I wonder if we will try to move on the fringe players - is Hause still around? Oh and clearly if we ever have to bring Olsen in we drop from World class keeper to Championship level. 

[Folski]

17 hours ago, CVByrne said:

But the % of revenue we are allowed use for FFP is decreasing. 

Under Premier League rules we can run a £100m loss (after exclusions)

Under UEFA rules not only are we not able to run a loss based in squad cost we have to run a profit. 

So when you realise the scale of the changes by being in Europe you see why it's getting tougher 

So what we actually need to do is trim the wage bill and not have any passengers on it. That and increase Revenue.

It just makes no sense for me to sell Luiz or Martinez to allow the club to progress, some might think thats short sighted but I don't think I've seen better players in their positions in my life following Villa.

 

[Philosopher]

10 minutes ago, Folski said:

So what we actually need to do is trim the wage bill and not have any passengers on it. That and increase Revenue.

It just makes no sense for me to sell Luiz or Martinez to allow the club to progress, some might think thats short sighted but I don't think I've seen better players in their positions in my life following Villa.

 

You sir are right. It's incredibly hard for a team outside the champions league to source players of their quality. So you keep for as long as you can.

[duke313]

8 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

You sir are right. It's incredibly hard for a team outside the champions league to source players of their quality. So you keep for as long as you can.

It's okay for the likes of City to sell a key player, they can just go out and buy the next best player in that position, we can't.  It's took us 5 years to get Luiz to this point, from a kid from City reserves to one of the best midfielders in the League.

[briny_ear]

3 hours ago, Shaun Teales Moustache said:

We'll never be a top team if we sell our best players, so I think these guys are untouchable:

Martinez

Watkins

Luiz

Kamara

 

These guys are probably not on the market (either due to injuries or recently signed, and all top players):

Moreno

Torres

Carlos

Mings

Tielemans

Buendia

Diaby

Duran

 

These guys, everyone would be happy to sell, but if there was any market, they'd probably be gone already:

Olsen 

Chambers

Dendonker 

Traore

 

So, if we were to sell a player/players to balance the books, I think it would probably be one or two of these -

Cash (~30m) - Valuable, international but homegrown, modern fullback that loads of teams would appreciate that he will run all day and give his all in attack and defence, but he's not a great fit for the systems we play. We need a new RB anyway, could target both an attacking and defensive RB instead of a tweener like Cash, and still probably turn a profit.

Digne (~15m) - Wages seem to be a bit of an issue for FFP, and it's not great having both LBs over 30 and having had injury issues. It would require an Ings like business decision to move on though. He's a valuable member of the squad, but there might be better uses for his 3.5m p/w. 

Konsa (~35m) - If he gets a look in with England (which he does deserve despite my reservations about him as a player), his value will skyrocket. If Harry Maguire is a 75m player, I'd easily take 90m for Konsa. He's good but flawed and if Mings recovers, Konsa is an OK defensive RB or else on the bench because Mings and Torres are both better by a distance, and Carlos is also infinitely better on the ball, if he can ever get back to staying fit and being a solid defender imo.

Ramsey (~60m) - young, English, scores goals, so probably worth at least 70m. Yet up to the time he got injured, I was still expecting Aaron to be the better player. Aaron has better technique, Jacob has better physicality. Aaron just never seemed to make the physical jump that Jacob did. Jacob is a quality player, but he's not a Grealish yet and I don't think he has another jump like that in him. Hopefully he'll kick into another gear, but the money he would bring in would probably fund a whole transfer window, and we haven't really missed him being out, even with Buendia also out. 

Bailey (~35m) - seems crazy to contemplate selling him now that he looks just like the player we thought we were signing. He was out of position up front and is now statistically the most productive player in the league iirc, playing exactly where he wants. If we sell him now, another team gets a bargain. He's currently better than Nico Williams may ever be, which illustrates how hard it will be to actually improve that position if we sell him.

McGinn (~50m) - the one I'd least like to let go, but his return to magnificence means he's valuable. His age and the squad depth at his position mean he's vulnerable, so with Tielemans and Ramsey in the squad, he's also ultimately somewhat replaceable. 50m would probably be too hard to turn down, but it would still hurt if he went for that. Ramsey is worth more on the market, but McGinn is more important to the team right now, so if we want to target Champions League Ramsey would be the smarter sell imo. 

 

It’s like, you pop out of the room for a couple of minutes and when you come back everyone is discussing selling John McGinn! 

And you think, “Whoa, where did this come from?”

I haven’t been following this thread so I have no idea how we got to a position where there is even contemplation of selling McGinn, Bailey, Ramsey, Konsa, etc. - is this for the winter transfer window? 

Sounds completely barmy, or maybe a return to the Lerner era?

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

4 hours ago, Shaun Teales Moustache said:

We'll never be a top team if we sell our best players, so I think these guys are untouchable:

Martinez

Watkins

Luiz

Kamara

 

These guys are probably not on the market (either due to injuries or recently signed, and all top players):

Moreno

Torres

Carlos

Mings

Tielemans

Buendia

Diaby

Duran

 

These guys, everyone would be happy to sell, but if there was any market, they'd probably be gone already:

Olsen 

Chambers

Dendonker 

Traore

 

So, if we were to sell a player/players to balance the books, I think it would probably be one or two of these -

Cash (~30m) - Valuable, international but homegrown, modern fullback that loads of teams would appreciate that he will run all day and give his all in attack and defence, but he's not a great fit for the systems we play. We need a new RB anyway, could target both an attacking and defensive RB instead of a tweener like Cash, and still probably turn a profit.

Digne (~15m) - Wages seem to be a bit of an issue for FFP, and it's not great having both LBs over 30 and having had injury issues. It would require an Ings like business decision to move on though. He's a valuable member of the squad, but there might be better uses for his 3.5m p/w. 

Konsa (~35m) - If he gets a look in with England (which he does deserve despite my reservations about him as a player), his value will skyrocket. If Harry Maguire is a 75m player, I'd easily take 90m for Konsa. He's good but flawed and if Mings recovers, Konsa is an OK defensive RB or else on the bench because Mings and Torres are both better by a distance, and Carlos is also infinitely better on the ball, if he can ever get back to staying fit and being a solid defender imo.

Ramsey (~60m) - young, English, scores goals, so probably worth at least 70m. Yet up to the time he got injured, I was still expecting Aaron to be the better player. Aaron has better technique, Jacob has better physicality. Aaron just never seemed to make the physical jump that Jacob did. Jacob is a quality player, but he's not a Grealish yet and I don't think he has another jump like that in him. Hopefully he'll kick into another gear, but the money he would bring in would probably fund a whole transfer window, and we haven't really missed him being out, even with Buendia also out. 

Bailey (~35m) - seems crazy to contemplate selling him now that he looks just like the player we thought we were signing. He was out of position up front and is now statistically the most productive player in the league iirc, playing exactly where he wants. If we sell him now, another team gets a bargain. He's currently better than Nico Williams may ever be, which illustrates how hard it will be to actually improve that position if we sell him.

McGinn (~50m) - the one I'd least like to let go, but his return to magnificence means he's valuable. His age and the squad depth at his position mean he's vulnerable, so with Tielemans and Ramsey in the squad, he's also ultimately somewhat replaceable. 50m would probably be too hard to turn down, but it would still hurt if he went for that. Ramsey is worth more on the market, but McGinn is more important to the team right now, so if we want to target Champions League Ramsey would be the smarter sell imo. 

 

Ramsey, McGinn and Konsa are currently untouchables for me as well in honestly.

Edited November 29, 2023 by JAMAICAN-VILLAN

[Mark Albrighton]

I think there’s more chance of us buying back Aaron Ramsey, Cameron Archer and Jaden Philogene and then selling them again than there is us selling the likes of Konsa, McGinn or JJ.