January Transfer Window 2024

[CVByrne]

I think we need to be at a point where we have at least 21 players that could be in a list we call "Emery Trusts". That means Emery would trust this player and would pick them for an important PL game if his plan for that game needed them and their specific profile/skillset.

Martinez, Digne, Moreno, Mings, Pau, Konsa, Carlos, Cash - He trusts everyone of those players.

JJ, Luiz, Kamara, Tielemans, McGinn, Bailey - I think it's clear he relies upon all of those

Watkins, Diaby, Zaniolo, Buendia - I think maybe the last two might be small ? in relation to the first two.

 

Players he doesn't trust and thus need to move on permanently. Starting with some this window.

Olsen, Dendonker, Chambers, Traore, Hause, Sanson, Coutinho

Lenglet he does trust as the reliable backup but would never consider starting him over the other CBs.

 

While we've Duran and Tim as young players who have opportunity to prove themselves.

So I'd say we're 3 players short of the trust band. Probably a CM, an Attacker and GK. All three would be summer signings I'd say not Jan ones.

[Tomaszk]

4 hours ago, paul514 said:

https://fbref.com/en/players/722494dc/Arthur-Vermeeren

I like the look of this young lad for a squad place to develop him.

https://fbref.com/en/players/3828f130/Javier-Guerra

I think this lad might be decent to play our McGinn role.

Both superb.

Hopefully we've already made moves if we're interested as there's long queues there.

[tinker]

10 hours ago, Monkeypuzzle said:

Agree mostly but one question. Who do we play if Cash gets injured? Is Konsa really the long term answer in that position? I think a new right back is worth investigating in January. Whether or not we can find one, I think we will be looking.

We could recall  Kaine Kesler , he's playing well on loan. Would have to be sure on him though,  be interesting to see if Emery or his scouts have been in attendance at any of his games. 

[villa4europe]

17 minutes ago, tinker said:

We could recall  Kaine Kesler , he's playing well on loan. Would have to be sure on him though,  be interesting to see if Emery or his scouts have been in attendance at any of his games. 

Would agree but actually think we should be looking to buy an upgrade on KKH, similar age but further along with their develop and a higher ceiling 

I dont think we need to be a RB in January who plays every minute left to go, more someone that contributes this year but really we have 6 months to get ready to start next season 

[tinker]

16 minutes ago, villa4europe said:

Would agree but actually think we should be looking to buy an upgrade on KKH, similar age but further along with their develop and a higher ceiling 

I dont think we need to be a RB in January who plays every minute left to go, more someone that contributes this year but really we have 6 months to get ready to start next season 

If that players available and we have the funds to do it then I agree......I have watched Kesler and he looks to have a high ceiling to me, he's certainly forward thinking. Given Emerys coaching and a slow introduction I think he may have a decent chance of pushing on, especially if we play him like we did Cash with Konsa behind him. If we don't use him this season then I think it's time to sell him and get a buy back clause inserted. 

[VillaChris]

On 29/11/2023 at 07:19, Shaun Teales Moustache said:

We'll never be a top team if we sell our best players, so I think these guys are untouchable:

Martinez

Watkins

Luiz

Kamara

 

These guys are probably not on the market (either due to injuries or recently signed, and all top players):

Moreno

Torres

Carlos

Mings

Tielemans

Buendia

Diaby

Duran

 

These guys, everyone would be happy to sell, but if there was any market, they'd probably be gone already:

Olsen 

Chambers

Dendonker 

Traore

 

So, if we were to sell a player/players to balance the books, I think it would probably be one or two of these -

Cash (~30m) - Valuable, international but homegrown, modern fullback that loads of teams would appreciate that he will run all day and give his all in attack and defence, but he's not a great fit for the systems we play. We need a new RB anyway, could target both an attacking and defensive RB instead of a tweener like Cash, and still probably turn a profit.

Digne (~15m) - Wages seem to be a bit of an issue for FFP, and it's not great having both LBs over 30 and having had injury issues. It would require an Ings like business decision to move on though. He's a valuable member of the squad, but there might be better uses for his 3.5m p/w. 

Konsa (~35m) - If he gets a look in with England (which he does deserve despite my reservations about him as a player), his value will skyrocket. If Harry Maguire is a 75m player, I'd easily take 90m for Konsa. He's good but flawed and if Mings recovers, Konsa is an OK defensive RB or else on the bench because Mings and Torres are both better by a distance, and Carlos is also infinitely better on the ball, if he can ever get back to staying fit and being a solid defender imo.

Ramsey (~60m) - young, English, scores goals, so probably worth at least 70m. Yet up to the time he got injured, I was still expecting Aaron to be the better player. Aaron has better technique, Jacob has better physicality. Aaron just never seemed to make the physical jump that Jacob did. Jacob is a quality player, but he's not a Grealish yet and I don't think he has another jump like that in him. Hopefully he'll kick into another gear, but the money he would bring in would probably fund a whole transfer window, and we haven't really missed him being out, even with Buendia also out. 

Bailey (~35m) - seems crazy to contemplate selling him now that he looks just like the player we thought we were signing. He was out of position up front and is now statistically the most productive player in the league iirc, playing exactly where he wants. If we sell him now, another team gets a bargain. He's currently better than Nico Williams may ever be, which illustrates how hard it will be to actually improve that position if we sell him.

McGinn (~50m) - the one I'd least like to let go, but his return to magnificence means he's valuable. His age and the squad depth at his position mean he's vulnerable, so with Tielemans and Ramsey in the squad, he's also ultimately somewhat replaceable. 50m would probably be too hard to turn down, but it would still hurt if he went for that. Ramsey is worth more on the market, but McGinn is more important to the team right now, so if we want to target Champions League Ramsey would be the smarter sell imo. 

 

What a brilliant post.

I didn't factor in selling Cash but he probably would be vulnerable next summer if we make CL as he could struggle to make the step up. Put him on the market and could see a West Ham being seriously interested.

If we sold Cash and signed a Wan Bisakka (or someone abroad) who's younger and with 12 months left on their deal I imagine that looks o.k for the balance sheet.

The plan was certainly to let Digne leave but shows external things can go wrong, Acuna looked the replacement but he got injured for Sevilla and Moreno had a setback which had him out for a further two months so good decision to keep hold of him and he's played well in most of the games. Next summer I'm sure the Saudi interest will return.

They'll be a few we'll have to make decisions on next summer. Can certainly see Tim getting minutes just to boost his value as the homegrown player to sell for 10m + next summer.

Personally I'd put McGinn in the must keep list. 30 early next season so really can't see any 40m + bids and we've seen his quality under Emery and he's a leader in the dressing room in the absence of Mings on a matchday so can't overstate that importance.

Edited November 30, 2023 by VillaChris

[duke313]

23 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

What a brilliant post.

I didn't factor in selling Cash but he probably would be vulnerable next summer if we make CL as he could struggle to make the step up. Put him on the market and could see a West Ham being seriously interested.

If we sold Cash and signed a Wan Bisakka (or someone abroad) who's younger and with 12 months left on their deal I imagine that looks o.k for the balance sheet.

The plan was certainly to let Digne leave but shows external things can go wrong, Acuna looked the replacement but he got injured for Sevilla and Moreno had a setback which had him out for a further two months so good decision to keep hold of him and he's played well in most of the games. Next summer I'm sure the Saudi interest will return.

They'll be a few we'll have to make decisions on next summer. Can certainly see Tim getting minutes just to boost his value as the homegrown player to sell for 10m + next summer.

Personally I'd put McGinn in the must keep list. 30 early next season so really can't see any 40m + bids and we've seen his quality under Emery and he's a leader in the dressing room in the absence of Mings on a matchday so can't overstate that importance.

Does the fact McGinn only cost £3m factor in keeping him from an FFP perspective?

[HolteExile]

26 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

 

If we sold Cash and signed a Wan Bisakka (or someone abroad) who's younger and with 12 months left on their deal I imagine that looks o.k for the balance sheet.

 

Might look better on the balance sheet, won't look particularly good on a football pitch. 

Anytime I've seen Wan Bissaka recently he looks like an athlete who only started playing football in the last year or two. Miscuing simple passes and generally having a look of  Harwood about him. Against Copenhagen he was directly responsible for two of their four goals conceded. 

We have an organised defence for the first time in McGrath knows how long, with each player comfortable in possession and disciplined and smart enough to contribute. Signing a player like Wan Bissaka (for little reason other that he's nominally a RB and moved to a big club for a large fee a while back) seems like a retrograde step to me. 

 

[VillaChris]

23 minutes ago, duke313 said:

Does the fact McGinn only cost £3m factor in keeping him from an FFP perspective?

The optimum time to sell him was around 2022 I think. Instead Gerrard completely indulged him to the detriment of his on field performances and some interested teams lost interest. Funnily enough it's worked out well in long run with him moving up another gear under UE.

He's also very important around the club to give the expectations of what we're about to new signings given he's been here since August 2018 and has been through so much.

Of course Mings will return but no guarantee at all he'll be as influential as before given the injury so currently McGinn and Martinez are our most important voices in the dressing room. You don't break that up at any cost.

I think of the two Ramsey might be one that's cashed in at some point in next two years given his age and England call up is just a matter of time and could happen in March if he stays fit.

[VillaChris]

16 minutes ago, HolteExile said:

Might look better on the balance sheet, won't look particularly good on a football pitch. 

Anytime I've seen Wan Bissaka recently he looks like an athlete who only started playing football in the last year or two. Miscuing simple passes and generally having a look of  Harwood about him. Against Copenhagen he was directly responsible for two of their four goals conceded. 

We have an organised defence for the first time in McGrath knows how long, with each player comfortable in possession and disciplined and smart enough to contribute. Signing a player like Wan Bissaka (for little reason other that he's nominally a RB and moved to a big club for a large fee a while back) seems like a retrograde step to me. 

 

He actually looked very good for Man. United last season. Lost his place up to December but knuckled down and worked hard and was automatic pick for their big matches in the second half.

I think everyone knows he dosen't offer much past the halfway line but that dosen't matter if we have Moreno or a younger deputy flying up and down the left so in Emery's system it would be a decent fit.

Mid 20s and 12 months left on his deal in the summer so feels a logical move.

[TRO]

16 hours ago, Derryvillan said:

Playing vs Arsenal now.He looks under 6ft tall.

Don't tell @TRO 

too small

[paul514]

4 hours ago, Tomaszk said:

Both superb.

Hopefully we've already made moves if we're interested as there's long queues there.

Have you seen them play? I haven't I just spotted them in the data

[TRO]

15 hours ago, Adman said:

I was listening to the claret and blue podcast (Dan Bardell) today and I think they're right about our intent this window.  They don't hink we need anyone, and there's a good arguement to not sign anyone.

Backup keeper - perhaps we reason that the drop off would be that big from Emi that it's not worth the expense to bring someone in now.

RB - who are we going to get as an upgrade to Cash in Jan who's not costing a fortune?

The rest of the squad looks pretty good with Ramsay and Moreno due back imminently.  We also have to consider longer term injuries (and any players sold that we might want to buyback) and how they will affect the squad in the summer.

If we sell Traore, Chambers and Dendonker, they haven't really played so wouldn't be missed that much.  We've got some really good options on the bench that need more minutes. ..So if we keep our powder dry, see where we finish and go from there

 

 

The arguments for and against have merit....I'll leave it to the maestro

[nick76]

10 minutes ago, TRO said:

16 hours ago, Adman said:

I was listening to the claret and blue podcast (Dan Bardell) today and I think they're right about our intent this window.  They don't hink we need anyone, and there's a good arguement to not sign anyone.

Backup keeper - perhaps we reason that the drop off would be that big from Emi that it's not worth the expense to bring someone in now.

RB - who are we going to get as an upgrade to Cash in Jan who's not costing a fortune?

The rest of the squad looks pretty good with Ramsay and Moreno due back imminently.  We also have to consider longer term injuries (and any players sold that we might want to buyback) and how they will affect the squad in the summer.

If we sell Traore, Chambers and Dendonker, they haven't really played so wouldn't be missed that much.  We've got some really good options on the bench that need more minutes. ..So if we keep our powder dry, see where we finish and go from there

 

 

The arguments for and against have merit....I'll leave it to the maestro

Yep trust in Emery. I hope we add to the squad though, if the right player(s) are available, from the current position of strength.  We look incredibly attractive at the moment to top players.  If we wait as some suggest and something goes wrong by the end of season and we slip to say 8th then we won’t look as attractive.  Top teams add from a position of strength.

[Mazrim]

I don't know where this selling key players talk has come from. I don't think there's any chance of that at all. Certainly not in January.
I expect we might shift a couple out and bring in a right back and maybe a loan player, then evaluate where we are in the summer.

But, we have to do business from a position of strength. We cant afford to let this fizzle out or we're wasting our time and everything these "sky 6" obsessed idiots think about us as a club will be true.

I'm certain that's not the case though. The owners are ambitious and so is Unai. They're not playing at this.

[TRO]

Tariq Lamptey 5'3..........hows that for a curved ball?

[TRO]

12 minutes ago, Mazrim said:

I don't know where this selling key players talk has come from. I don't think there's any chance of that at all. Certainly not in January.
I expect we might shift a couple out and bring in a right back and maybe a loan player, then evaluate where we are in the summer.

But, we have to do business from a position of strength. We cant afford to let this fizzle out or we're wasting our time and everything these "sky 6" obsessed idiots think about us as a club will be true.

I'm certain that's not the case though. The owners are ambitious and so is Unai. They're not playing at this.

Its clear that any club that has the temerity to challenge the traditional top boys....Their players come under the microscope for transfer....Brighton as an example have been raped and plundered, Wolves too, to a degree.

It reminds me of the mafia of the '30s....keep em down, take em out.

However, the wherewithal of our owners might be a bit more than they can chew.

Sure if we can't beat them, we have to join them, and to a degree, we are.

[paul514]

22 minutes ago, TRO said:

Tariq Lamptey 5'3..........hows that for a curved ball?

No thanks doesn’t suit us IMO and is always injured from those bursting sprints 

[MaVilla]

55 minutes ago, TRO said:

Tariq Lamptey 5'3..........hows that for a curved ball?

 

33 minutes ago, paul514 said:

No thanks doesn’t suit us IMO and is always injured from those bursting sprints 

Ironically, Lamptey is again injured, and is apparently out for a "long time".

Fati is the same, apparently.

[paul514]

13 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

 

Ironically, Lamptey is again injured, and is apparently out for a "long time".

Fati is the same, apparently.

Lovely players but the injuries make it a no.

as a side note on players who get many injuries….

i think many people under estimate a players wages as part of the overall cost of accruing and owning a player over a 4/5 year contract.

the player has to be outstanding and the club can only carry one or two of these players without it becoming a squad problem.