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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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15 minutes ago, AVFCDAN said:

Can someone remind me what results we want tonight for 5th place to be champs league?

A Lazio win, PSG/Sociedad is a bit indifferent.

Then tomorrow - Madrid and City wins. And next week - Arsenal and PSV wins.

In Europa, we want results for Brighton, Liverpool, West Ham (especially).

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18 minutes ago, AVFCDAN said:

Can someone remind me what results we want tonight for 5th place to be champs league?

Any German, Italian, Spanish team to lose

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40 minutes ago, S-Platt said:

Any German, Italian, Spanish team to lose

That’s tricky to have all 3 lose so for now might be best to want Italians to win, Germans and Spanish to lose.  In particular we have to overtake German results to move into the top two countries.

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7 minutes ago, Pinebro said:

,If we beat Spurs on sunday I think it's sealed

Our games against Liverpool, City and Arsenal still make me nervous. 

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5 minutes ago, Don_Simon said:

Our games against Liverpool, City and Arsenal still make me nervous. 

Spurs have to play them 3 as well in consecutive games starting the week after they play Newcastle away

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2 minutes ago, punkiller1981 said:

Spurs have to play them 3 as well in consecutive games starting the week after they play Newcastle away

Did not know this! Now feel slightly better. Keep em' coming Punkiller!

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Presumably this year is a pretty good one to qualify with the changes coming in. Everyone definitely gets 8 games, rather than 6, so more ££ in the new format? Playing a wider spread of opponents (8 x once instead of 3 x twice) should make it a bit easier to avoid being in the bottom part of the league. Maybe. 

 

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3 hours ago, Don_Simon said:

Our games against Liverpool, City and Arsenal still make me nervous. 

Won't be sealed at all.

There will still be 30 points to play for. 3 - 5 points is pretty easy to swing with just 2 - 3 games of dropped and gained points.

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3 hours ago, Zatman said:

I would prefer the English clubs except ourselves win nothing and go out early if honest. I would prefer we got 4th on our own merit and not be panicking and relying on others for assistance if needed

We just need do our own job

Edit: actually I dont mind Brighton winning something

England, like Spain etc only have 4 CL spots because their teams do well in Europe every year over a five-year period.  If English teams regularly went out in the group stages, they'd quickly lose 4th, maybe even 3rd spot.  

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32 minutes ago, duke313 said:

England, like Spain etc only have 4 CL spots because their teams do well in Europe every year over a five-year period.  If English teams regularly went out in the group stages, they'd quickly lose 4th, maybe even 3rd spot.  

I am OK with that. I have no pleasure in seeing these scum 6 and the plastic fans win trophies

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36 minutes ago, Zatman said:

I am OK with that. I have no pleasure in seeing these scum 6 and the plastic fans win trophies

You realise if we started winning trophies we would soon garner our own plastic fans and be grouped in with the 'scum' 6? 

Qualifying for CL and then increasing the likelihood that it can happen year upon year, whether that be through our own continued investment or through more spaces available, is the best scenario for this club.

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6 hours ago, Pinebro said:

,If we beat Spurs on sunday I think it's sealed

Yep same. An 8 point gap with only 11 games to overturn it would be too much I think.

Again I go back to looking at eventual totals. If we win against Spurs we'd have 58 points with 10 games to play.
The highest points total required for 4th over the last 10 seasons is 76. That would only require 1.8PPG from us to hit from there.

Usually the points total needed is around 71 which would be 1.3PPG

 

For Spurs to hit those numbers if they lose against us they'd have to hit between 1.9 and 2.4 PPG which is higher than they've averaged all season (or would be when you include the loss)

 

I don't feel very confident about our game against them. But if we do win then it's as good as done, imo

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