nick76 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 (edited) 2 hours ago, DublinVilla said: It’s factoring in 5 CL places, so essentially saying there’s a >99% chance they will finish top 5, which there is. 2 hours ago, LondonLax said: If they collapse and finish 5th they are even then still likely to get champions league via the extra spot so that might be why their odds of missing out all together are so high? Oh I thought they were just including to fourth, ok based on fifth then it’s fair enough to have that percentage of >99%. (I should’ve opened the full tweet and seen the note ) Edited March 4 by nick76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 6 hours ago, wishywashy said: Manure one in ten? One in ten? One in ten? But I do want us to be their monkey wrench. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommo_b Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 We can also have a huge say on the title race. Don’t we still have to play all the top 3? Imagine we won all 3, would that put us in the race for the title? Guessing probably not but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinebro Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 We have something to learn from Arsenal here. At 2-0 we seem to switch off too many times. They just keep going and going. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
est1874 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 5 hours ago, omariqy said: Reminder Valid. Opening..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DevonIsAPlaceOnEarth Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 I’m feeling quite relaxed about all this. These are not the days of Ellis and Xia, I trust Sawiris to find a way through this anti-competitive tripe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Just realised our back 4 when we beat City and Arsenal hasn’t played together since. Should help our defensive woes when Carlos is back. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post JPAngel Posted March 5 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted March 5 Boy do I love updating these charts after a win... Our PPG average for the season has now exceeded 2 and stands at 2.04 meaning that we're currently on course for 77 points for the season. 14 year averages indicate that this would be enough for a 3rd place finish. However, with City, Liverpool and Arsenal playing as well as they are, I feel as though that won't be the case this season but we shall see. I've said it plenty of times before - as have many others - but the average requirement for 4th place over the last 14 years is 71 points. Both Spurs and ourselves are on course to exceed that requirement and there's only space for one of us. Others have said it already but this feels like less of a case of "lets hit X points target to achieve Y goal" and more "match (or better) Spurs results and we'll claim 4th as Man Utd are seemingly out of it. The most important thing to remember is this is in our hands. We're in the driving seat and 4th place is ours to lose. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 54 minutes ago, JPAngel said: Boy do I love updating these charts after a win... Our PPG average for the season has now exceeded 2 and stands at 2.04 meaning that we're currently on course for 77 points for the season. 14 year averages indicate that this would be enough for a 3rd place finish. However, with City, Liverpool and Arsenal playing as well as they are, I feel as though that won't be the case this season but we shall see. I've said it plenty of times before - as have many others - but the average requirement for 4th place over the last 14 years is 71 points. Both Spurs and ourselves are on course to exceed that requirement and there's only space for one of us. Others have said it already but this feels like less of a case of "lets hit X points target to achieve Y goal" and more "match (or better) Spurs results and we'll claim 4th as Man Utd are seemingly out of it. The most important thing to remember is this is in our hands. We're in the driving seat and 4th place is ours to lose. Been waiting for this Now taking United into the picture. To overtake us, due to GD, even if they matched our PPG +1 it still wouldn't be enough. If we maintain our 2.04 PPG, United mathematically can't catch us. If we drop to 1.5 PPG (which would mean Unai's worst form for us ever) they'd need more than 2.5 PPG. From 11 games it means they'd need a minimum of 28 points (9 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) They aren't doing that. Even if we drop to 1 PPG (meaning we only probably win another 2/3 games all season, they'd need 2 PPG minimum, meaning winning probably 6/11. Also not likely to happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPAngel Posted March 5 VT Supporter Share Posted March 5 6 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: Been waiting for this Now taking United into the picture. To overtake us, due to GD, even if they matched our PPG +1 it still wouldn't be enough. If we maintain our 2.04 PPG, United mathematically can't catch us. If we drop to 1.5 PPG (which would mean Unai's worst form for us ever) they'd need more than 2.5 PPG. From 11 games it means they'd need a minimum of 28 points (9 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) They aren't doing that. Even if we drop to 1 PPG (meaning we only probably win another 2/3 games all season, they'd need 2 PPG minimum, meaning winning probably 6/11. Also not likely to happen. Spot on. While it feels like counting our chickens before they're hatched, it really does feel like top 5 is now guaranteed. And, with CL football likely to trickle down to 5th place, we might as well get used to the idea of hearing the Champions League anthem blaring out of the Villa Park speaker system in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 14 hours ago, Pinebro said: We have something to learn from Arsenal here. At 2-0 we seem to switch off too many times. They just keep going and going. Bit harsh mate. We were 4 nil up after 30 minutes against them only a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 As Emery might say, there's still much work to be done, but premature ejaculation is on the horizon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPAngel Posted March 5 VT Supporter Share Posted March 5 (edited) I've just realised something interesting about our remaining fixtures and how I've been using last season's results as projections for this season. Three of them - Arsenal (A), Chelsea (H), and Crystal Palace (A) - were all losses and all under Gerrard. Edited March 5 by JPAngel 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Rightdm00 Posted March 5 Popular Post Share Posted March 5 15 hours ago, Pinebro said: We have something to learn from Arsenal here. At 2-0 we seem to switch off too many times. They just keep going and going. We beat the same team 5-0. Arsenal scored in the 97th minute to beat luton 4-3. We played both teams exactly the same. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted March 5 VT Supporter Share Posted March 5 On 03/03/2024 at 19:15, Vive_La_Villa said: Remember saying he was betting than Grealish a few years back and if didn’t go down well around here. Like this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rightdm00 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 11 hours ago, omariqy said: Just realised our back 4 when we beat City and Arsenal hasn’t played together since. Should help our defensive woes when Carlos is back. We absolutely need the Ezri, Carlos, Pau partnership back ASAP. After getting clean sheets in consecutive games against City and Arsenal we have had 2 in the last 11 league games. No offense to Lenglet, he has deputiesd as well as can be expected but the sooner he is watching the game from the subs bench the better. Our defense has been a seive since we lost our preferred pairing in the back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 5th is the absolute minimum we'll finish, and it will likely be enough for CL football. Beat Spurs at the weekend and 4th is ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alakagom Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Today is gonna be huge day, if Lazio managed to knock out Bayern we'd be virtuallally guaranteed 5th slot in CL. Never rated the facists more 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okonokos Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Haven't really been keeping up with the 5th spot rules. Can anybody summarise them? Are we basically hoping English clubs do better than German clubs? When will we know for sure what 5th place gets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 9 minutes ago, Okonokos said: Haven't really been keeping up with the 5th spot rules. Can anybody summarise them? Are we basically hoping English clubs do better than German clubs? When will we know for sure what 5th place gets? Yes, the more German clubs go out and as longs as the English clubs don’t implode, 5th spot should get UCL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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