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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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I'm fairly optimistic. Pau Torres to return in the next couple of weeks hopefully, Morgan Rogers boost, Bailey cooking and Emi doing Emi things. JJ will continue to improve and Ollie hasn't lost his touch when he gets the service. Alot to be very happy about!

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19 minutes ago, AshVilla said:

image.png.b5e377bfd6d79ed8c953af565bc8e8ed.png

Spurs have a horrible fixture run in April.

Convince me that they get more than 3 points out of these.

We have to play Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool too. 

Edited by Pongo Waring
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On 03/02/2024 at 00:20, YLN said:

I had a thought on the bus home about how we need our good players like Ramsey and Diaby and Douglas Luiz and Kamara to start playing like good players and stop playing shite. 

I think once they start playing good again, we'll start winning games.

So it turns out I was right

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1 hour ago, AshVilla said:

image.png.b5e377bfd6d79ed8c953af565bc8e8ed.png

Spurs have a horrible fixture run in April.

Convince me that they get more than 3 points out of these.

Angeball. Great January business. They should run away with the league really. 

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7 hours ago, Pongo Waring said:

We have to play Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool too. 

I think the idea is that’s it somehow better to have the more difficult opposition a bit more spread out over the fixtures, as opposed to one after the other. 

Like somehow the weight of losing three difficult games that carries over and increases the chance of losing the fourth, less difficult game. 

<shrugs shoulders> I don’t know if there is any true merit in that thought. Fwiw if I was given the option of having Citeh, Arsenal and Liverpool all in a row or separated over a couple of months, I’d probably choose the latter. But it’s a gut feeling more than anything.

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In agreement we need 24 points for 4th.

Win all our remaining home games and we get 24 points.

Not so easy though, a few tough games there.

Liverpool could we fighting for the title in our last home game.

Brentford will low block us without doubt so we'd need to score early like we did under Danks.

Wolves will also low block us and we can't seem to beat them lately. Surely we are due a win.

I'd hope for wins against Forest, Spurs (get VP roaring), Bournemouth and Chelsea. 

Next week against United is huge as to which direction we will head in. Beat them and can confidently say they're out of the top 4 race unless they won near enough every game remaining after that (not happening).

As I doubt we will replicate our early year home form we need to target away points to hit those 24 points. Realistic opportunities there are Fulham away, Palace away last game and even West Ham.

I'm very anxious about Luton away at the moment, they will be hurting from their performance at VP and they're scrapping to survive. 

Brighton away, they could be in Europe like us but their home form at the moment is so strong, I'm glad we are scheduled to play them later on. 

Tough ask especially with potential FA Cup and EUCL but we can do it. 

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37 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

I think the idea is that’s it somehow better to have the more difficult opposition a bit more spread out over the fixtures, as opposed to one after the other. 

Like somehow the weight of losing three difficult games that carries over and increases the chance of losing the fourth, less difficult game. 

<shrugs shoulders> I don’t know if there is any true merit in that thought. Fwiw if I was given the option of having Citeh, Arsenal and Liverpool all in a row or separated over a couple of months, I’d probably choose the latter. But it’s a gut feeling more than anything.

In paper it should be, you get momentum and a fuzzy feeling from beating Newcastle and then go on to play at a higher level vs man city, conversely if they lose the first 2 games in that run the pressure increases for the derby game and they choke 

But the PL doesn't work like that 

We beat man city and arsenal before going on our worst run in a year 

What could make it interesting is most of those spurs games will be moved for TV and we will hopefully still be playing Sunday games, I'd prefer it if we played our game before spurs played theirs, worst case is spurs playing the early Saturday game and going above us meaning we have to win 24 hours later

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our final 7 away games are

Fulham, Luton, West Ham, City, Arsenal, Brighton, Palace - We should be able to get two wins in there and two draws giving us 8 points

Which means we need 2ppg (16 points) from our 8 home games to make it to 70 points

United, Forest, Spurs, Wolves, Brentford, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool - So we really need to win 5 of these 8 games. 

I think our ability to bounce back from a loss has been a key aspect of our good season

4-0, 3-1, 3-1, 3-2 and 5-0 are the wins we've had on back of a defeat. 

Edited by CVByrne
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3 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

our final 7 away games are

Fulham, Luton, West Ham, City, Arsenal, Brighton, Palace - We should be able to get two wins in there and two draws giving us 8 points

Which means we need 2ppg (16 points) from our 8 home games to make it to 70 points

United, Forest, Spurs, Wolves, Brentford, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool - So we really need to win 5 of these 8 games. 

Could get 4-5 away wins from that lot and Luton at Kenilworth worries me more than some others

Edited by Kiwivillan
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Feel like there’s a big weight been lifted and we can go again . So many positives to take from last night. We are doing alright and I’m surprised how close we are still to Liverpool at the top. 

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9 hours ago, AshVilla said:

image.png.b5e377bfd6d79ed8c953af565bc8e8ed.png

Spurs have a horrible fixture run in April.

Convince me that they get more than 3 points out of these.

Momentum is everything in football and if Spurs struggle in these games, we have a good chance of picking up points where they will likely drop them.

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9 hours ago, Pongo Waring said:

We have to play Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool too. 

Yeah but Villa doing Villa things we would probably smash them all then lose to Luton

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10 hours ago, AshVilla said:

image.png.b5e377bfd6d79ed8c953af565bc8e8ed.png

Spurs have a horrible fixture run in April.

Convince me that they get more than 3 points out of these.

I think they could beat Arsenal and Newcastle. They also have an insane record at home to Man. City although cup match Man. City felt in control.

Pretty sure in April we have Arsenal and Man. City away so it will balance itself out. We do need to try to get another 4-5 point lead over them if possible just to pile the pressure on them a little bit.

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