Popular Post CVByrne Posted February 5 Popular Post Share Posted February 5 We need to accept Sheffield United played suicide by having played a high line on average only 11m into their own half. With no intensity or semblance of a structured press they were just leaving themselves open to our direct attacks and didn't change until after we scored our 4th. We won't be playing teams who offer us so many gifts again this season. We need the performance against Chelsea to back it up and critically bring out A game to United 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, CVByrne said: We need the performance against Chelsea to back it up and critically bring out A game to United We can beat both. That Sheffield result was the tonic we needed. It seems sometimes teams have a mid season break and are rusty and I want to think that was the reason we had very off day against Newcastle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Remember that time Spurs were nailed on for 3rd only to be knocked into 4th by Arsenal and missed out on a Champions League place because Chelsea won the comp the year before and took the spot from back in 6th. I can’t imagine how livid their fans must have been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 5 VT Supporter Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, Tomaszk said: Uh oh. Even with the freak season we'd still be odds on to get it. 75 is the most points 5th place has gained in years and years. If we'd got 75 points when MON was in charge we'd have finished 4th, 4th and 3rd (in his season respectively) To get to 75 points is still less PPG than Emery's average since he's been with Villa. We'd still be in with a really good chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Condimentalist Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 hours ago, Kiwivillan said: Last 5 seasons 71, 71, 67, 66, 71 was the total 4th place got Likely to be higher this year because there are so many poor teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 5 VT Supporter Share Posted February 5 8 hours ago, ender4 said: Do you know what a similar benchmark would be for 4th place? It's usually between about 67 and 72. Again there's been a few standout seasons, it was 75 in 17/18, and 76 in 16/17... but that's really it. The majority of the time 70 points would get you 4th, let alone 5th. The highest points total from a 6th place team in the last 10 years is 69. And that was in that 16/17 season which seems a bit of an anomaly. Usually 6th place scores low 60's or high 50's If we get 70+ points then we'll finish 5th, and we'll have a very good shout at finishing top 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, Condimentalist said: Likely to be higher this year because there are so many poor teams. Likely to be similar because of "top" teams dropping points unexpectedly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 37 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said: We can beat both. That Sheffield result was the tonic we needed. It seems sometimes teams have a mid season break and are rusty and I want to think that was the reason we had very off day against Newcastle I was thinking this, we were slow out of the gates against Chelsea and Newcastle but much better in the second half of both games. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Steve Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 9 hours ago, DCJonah said: No way. Beat Chelsea we've then got a very winnable game and then we're in the QFs and suddenly in with a great shout. The Chelsea game is very winnable. If we start positively, we win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 21 minutes ago, CVByrne said: I was thinking this, we were slow out of the gates against Chelsea and Newcastle but much better in the second half of both games. I think Emery plays rope-a-dope against the tough teams. It worked against Spurs when they should've scored 3 in first 20 mins. Backfired against Newscastle when they did score 2 in first half then another before we came back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post CVByrne Posted February 5 Popular Post Share Posted February 5 Assuming we've an average end to the season with 1.333ppg and end on 66 points. If we draw with United on Saturday they will need 2.07ppg from their remaining 14 games to get to 67 points. That's realistically 9 wins they need from 15 games. Or 8 wins 5 draws and one loss. So really they'll need 9 wins as they will lose 2 games. It's imperative we avoid defeat to them 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leeroy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 hours ago, DakotaVilla said: 8 wins has to be the aim with a target of 5 at home and 3 away. Home Man utd, forest, Spurs, wolves, brentford, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool Away Fulham, Luton, west ham, man city, arsenal, Brighton, palace, We need to get wins on the board in Feb otherwise could leave us with a lot to do when the fixtures pile up and get harder in March and April. Not losing to spurs and Man Utd to a lesser extent is key obviously. Of the home games, we should be beating Forest, Brentford and Bournemouth. Wolves is a derby and we have a poor recent record against them but I think that should be a win too. Then we'd just have to win a least one of the games against Man Utd, Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool. Beat Man Utd and we can start to feel really confident I think. I'd predict 16 points from those 8 games but we could do better. Away games, most likely wins are Fulham, Luton and Palace. Good recent record at Brighton. West Ham could go either way. I'd expect losses at Man City and Arsenal. I'd predict a minimum of 9 points from those 7 games. That would see us on 71 points which is what Newcastle got last season. I think that will be borderline finishing 4th and at worst 5th (all depends if Tottenham get more than that as I don't think Man Utd will get more than mid 60s myself). And that's with more cautious predictions and quite a few draws thrown in where I've sat on the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 We really need Pau back for the United game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 5 VT Supporter Share Posted February 5 If the Sheffield Utd game signalled the end of our slump (and it's a big IF) then 3 wins out of the next 4 is completely feasible. Beating Utd on the weekend would be such a huge boost in so many ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeyAnty Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Martinez is out for long time now for man utd. He will be a massive loss, no way they are overtaking us without him. i told the the young guy on way to school this morning and his eyes started to water up. Realised I should have been more specific as he thought it was our keeper 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdulaziz1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 hours ago, villan95 said: They said on commentary the other day that England currently has a 77% chance of getting an extra CL place. So it's looking promising. Still let's just get 4th and not rely on anyone else for favours. Actually big part of it is relying on our favor to ourselves. Win the Conference league and most likely 5th will get to the CL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rightdm00 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, CVByrne said: We need to accept Sheffield United played suicide by having played a high line on average only 11m into their own half. With no intensity or semblance of a structured press they were just leaving themselves open to our direct attacks and didn't change until after we scored our 4th. We won't be playing teams who offer us so many gifts again this season. We need the performance against Chelsea to back it up and critically bring out A game to United Couldn't believe it when I saw the stat. You could see they were high up the pitch but to be that far is well ... Suicidal. You're right, we may not get an easier game this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, abdulaziz1 said: Actually big part of it is relying on our favor to ourselves. Win the Conference league and most likely 5th will get to the CL. Yup and there’s more points on offer for winning the knockout games across all competitions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 14 hours ago, alreadyexists said: I don’t think it means it’s definitely not happening, I think it depends on how the remaining teams do. So if an English team does very well in the CL and Europa that could add points to the English total and mean the PL gets the extra spot. It includes our own performances in the EUCL as that will count for the points total too. Villa being Villa, I can see a situation where we just miss out on 4th but make europa Conference final and so would be effectively playing that to make 5th live for CL. Imagine the pressure on that game, going for our first serious trophy since 1996 AND potentially game changer of us playing in CL. That's going to be 10 times the pressure we had at 2-0 up at Man. United so we'd need to handle that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 11 hours ago, Kiwivillan said: Last 5 seasons 71, 71, 67, 66, 71 was the total 4th place got Mid 60s would be brilliant if that was the case. Basically wouldn't be that much more than a point a game given there's still 15 matches left. I think we need to aim for 70 points and see what the situation is as Spurs with their style will still win plenty of games in the run in even if they lose some. This is the point in the season where a run of draws can actually impact significantly so we need to be mindful of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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