Villa87 Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 Imagine we win our next two going into Spurs away… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Your Round Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 1 minute ago, romavillan said: Chelsea and United will have to recover some of the wheels that have come off first. Yeah I see them as competing to finish bottom of that mini league. Or lower, hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talldarkandransome Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 Spurs away then Arse and Citeh at home will give us an idea of where we are, or where we could be. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 2 hours ago, romavillan said: Looking at the table it is insane that we can average 2.2 points a game and only be fifth. It's a measure of how good we have been over 10 games though that we're only 2 points behind the unbeaten Arsenal. If we can beat Forest and Fulham I'd expect the gap that's opened between us and 6th to be a couple of points wider. Man. CIty, Arsenal and Liverpool will all exceed 80 + points so nothing unusual about their starts. Arsenal finished on 84 last season and they had a relatively poor end to the season. Liverpool were really bad for 3/4 of last season but had a late rally and ended up close to 70 points in the end so improving on that by 15-20 is pretty logical. Man. City are Man. City. There is no way Spurs will get close to those three, they WILL tail off so they'll be more in 65-70 point bracket which is what we need to aim for to seriously go for 4th place. Thinking about it I'd rather Spurs lose to Chelsea as then by beating Forest and Fulham we'd be above them going into the November 26th match unless they win at Wolves which isn't an easy fixture currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 (edited) 40 minutes ago, oishiiniku_uk said: A good signifier of how potent we've become: we've already scored 3 or more goals in six of our games this season. We only managed 3+ goals in four games in the whole of last season. We’re joint top goal scorers in the league with Newcastle after 10 games. Thats crazy ! Edited October 29, 2023 by Vive_La_Villa 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MrBlack Posted October 29, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted October 29, 2023 5 points above 6th and no one has scored more goals than us. Champions league is a real possibility. To the point where if 5th does get a place I'm convinced we'll be in it. If it's only 4th, then I wouldn't bet against us. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pongo Waring Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 (edited) How many points did 4th finish on in the last 10 PL seasons: 22/23: 71 (5th finished on 67 points) 21/22: 71 (5th finished on 69 points) 20/21: 67 (5th finished on 66 points) 19/20: 66 (5th finished on 62 points) 18/19: 71 (5th finished on 70 points) 17/18: 75 (5th finished on 70 points) 16/17: 76 (5th finished on 75 points) 15/16: 66 (5th finished on 66 points) 14/15: 70 (5th finished on 64 points) 13/14: 79 (5th finished on 72 points) Average points needed to finish 4th: 69 Edited October 29, 2023 by Pongo Waring 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 Being realistic I would say Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City are better than us over 38 games and will finish above us. That leaves Tottenham, Newcastle and Brighton. We need 2 of them to drop off. I don't consider Man Utd or Chelsea a threat now which is funny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sulberto21 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 (edited) I hope we get CL. But I hope we confirm it last home game of the season so we can play the CL music. Edited October 30, 2023 by Sulberto21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaVilla Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 2 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said: Being realistic I would say Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City are better than us over 38 games and will finish above us. That leaves Tottenham, Newcastle and Brighton. We need 2 of them to drop off. I don't consider Man Utd or Chelsea a threat now which is funny. We don’t need anyone to drop off. We just need to do what Emery has done for the last 12 months - get 2 points per game on average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 3 hours ago, Pongo Waring said: Average points needed to finish 4th: 69 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viivvaa66 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 7 hours ago, Pongo Waring said: How many points did 4th finish on in the last 10 PL seasons: 22/23: 71 (5th finished on 67 points) 21/22: 71 (5th finished on 69 points) 20/21: 67 (5th finished on 66 points) 19/20: 66 (5th finished on 62 points) 18/19: 71 (5th finished on 70 points) 17/18: 75 (5th finished on 70 points) 16/17: 76 (5th finished on 75 points) 15/16: 66 (5th finished on 66 points) 14/15: 70 (5th finished on 64 points) 13/14: 79 (5th finished on 72 points) Average points needed to finish 4th: 69 This confirms that 2 points per game (=76 points) normally gets you 4th place. We are currently 13 points better off than last season, and are comfortably above the 2 points per game line. Nottingham and Fulham next before the international break, should see us in a good position before we take on three of the teams above us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 We are 13 points up on the first 10 games of last season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaJ100 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 (edited) Really liking this little split with us and the other top 4. Love to maintain that or grow the gap but it could be that we end up in our own little bracket with 4th which would be fine by me. What's required for 5th to be a champs league place? Also what if we win the Conference and qualify for champs league? Who gets Europa? Edited October 30, 2023 by VillaJ100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBlack Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 27 minutes ago, VillaJ100 said: Really liking this little split with us and the other top 4. Love to maintain that or grow the gap but it could be that we end up in our own little bracket with 4th which would be fine by me. What's required for 5th to be a champs league place? Also what if we win the Conference and qualify for champs league? Who gets Europa? For 5th to be a champions league spot, England needs to be second in a kind of league table that is formed from how well your countries clubs do in Europe. Someone posted the scoring mechanims a few pages back. But it basically means we need 4 or 5 of our teams to make it to the latter stages of the competitions (semis of the ECL EL and UECL), probably one to win something, and maybe even 2. The Europa League spot for the Conference league winners is an "extra" placing taken off the bottom ranked team that would otherwise have to go via the qualifiers. If we don't take up that place because we also qualified for the champions league it goes to whichever league would normally have got the place (and not England). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, MrBlack said: For 5th to be a champions league spot, England needs to be second in a kind of league table that is formed from how well your countries clubs do in Europe. Someone posted the scoring mechanims a few pages back. But it basically means we need 4 or 5 of our teams to make it to the latter stages of the competitions (semis of the ECL EL and UECL), probably one to win something, and maybe even 2. The Europa League spot for the Conference league winners is an "extra" placing taken off the bottom ranked team that would otherwise have to go via the qualifiers. If we don't take up that place because we also qualified for the champions league it goes to whichever league would normally have got the place (and not England). Liverpool and Man. City should be locks to make SFs of their respective competitions. Man. City could easily win CL again but very few retain that trophy. Liverpool can just mix and max in europa up to the later stages. Of course we can do well in europa Conference aswell. How's it work if Man. United go out of CL but then get to at least SFs of Europa? Does that push the co-efficient up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 15 hours ago, Villa87 said: Imagine we win our next two going into Spurs away… It's an interesting game that one. We've been battered twice and been the better side in every other game this season. The Spurs fixture is pretty similar to Newcastle and Liverpool on paper. A good, high-pressing side, away from home. I'd like to see us go more direct and use McGinn really advanced to hold the ball as well as Watkins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBlack Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 34 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Liverpool and Man. City should be locks to make SFs of their respective competitions. Man. City could easily win CL again but very few retain that trophy. Liverpool can just mix and max in europa up to the later stages. Of course we can do well in europa Conference aswell. How's it work if Man. United go out of CL but then get to at least SFs of Europa? Does that push the co-efficient up? They'd get less points than staying in the CL and progressing to the corresponding round of that. But I think if they drop to Europa by finishing 3rd in the CL group stage, and say get to the semis of that, versus instead finishing 2nd then losing in the round of 16 in the champs league, there probably isn't much in it. Maybe even better for them to finish third if they are the two most likely outcomes The maths could be worked out, but I'm lazy... The score we get is averaged across all our teams. So one team doing rubbish would hurt us but so far I'd say we're on track. Arsenal and Man City top of their groups, and should reach latter stages of the Champions league. As you say, City possibly winning it, but should be finalists at least. Man Utd and Newcastle on track to drop into Europa where they stand more chance of getting further, with Liverpool and West Ham top of their Europa league groups. Gives us a good chance of having 2 or even 3 clubs in the semis. Us joint top of our group and looking to get into our stride. We only get extra points from the UECL after the group round if we make the semi final, so need to do well in the group then make it to at least the Semi's to start helping our average. Brighton could do with picking up but as it stands we have probably have enough to compensate if they drop out. Also depends how the other countries are represented though. If the semi's are made up of teams from only 3 countries then it'd bad for us. If its us having lots and the lots of other countries having only 1 it would be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Need to stay grounded. Our odds on a top 6 finish are 5/4 which is still only about 45% probability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigel Posted October 30, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted October 30, 2023 So it's a good possibility should we finish in 5th after the last game we wouldn't know which competition we would be in? Would make the Champions league final a bit tasty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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