Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23

[Sulberto21]

I think it’s a disgrace that we’re no longer 11th. It’s our position. Why have we exceeded it??? Shocked!

[rubberman]

I'd love to see the stats on activity on this thread through the season. Quite the peak for the last few days I imagine.

[SecretVillaScout]

2 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

Its not in our own hands though. We need other teams to drop points i can't see it as the run isnt as easy and i dont think we have the squad depth

Newcastle at home ia going to be tough

Brentford away another tough game

Spurs home we never win

Utd away another toughie

So there is four examples of potential places we can drop points. 

If we win against forest that sets up a good platform for us going into these games

 

It is in our own hands because our fixtures apart from Forrest are all against the teams we are competing for Europe against. Win we gains points and also the other team drops points.

[SecretVillaScout]

On 04/09/2022 at 16:38, maqroll said:

Sorry, but you are in fantasy land if you think we can finish 7th or higher. 

Is this the real life?
Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landside,
No escape from reality
Open your eyes,
Look up to the skies and see,

 

Edited April 6, 2023 by SecretVillaScout

[turvontour]

2 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

Its not in our own hands though. We need other teams to drop points i can't see it as the run isnt as easy and i dont think we have the squad depth

Newcastle at home ia going to be tough

Brentford away another tough game

Spurs home we never win

Utd away another toughie

So there is four examples of potential places we can drop points. 

If we win against forest that sets up a good platform for us going into these games

 

It's about as in our own hands as it ever could be. Obviously in the extreme, all the teams around us could win all of their remaining games but assuming they finish the season broadly around their current forms then it's down to us as to where we want to finish.

Really simply, if we win the majority of our remaining games then we are absolutely minimum in the 5th-7th argument. If we dont win the majority of our remaining games and lose most of them, then its more likely to be 8th to 11th. It's all up to us. Other results will be other results.

[nick76]

1 minute ago, SecretVillaScout said:

On 04/09/2022 at 16:38, maqroll said:

Sorry, but you are in fantasy land if you think we can finish 7th or higher. 

Is this the real life?
Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landside,
No escape from reality
Open your eyes,
Look up to the skies and see,

Totally justifiable comment from Maqroll given Gerrard was in charge.  We may have even been in a relegation fight under him at this stage.  He was so poor hence why I was fighting most of his tenure saying how poor he was. 7th place was fantasy land.  

We are under an elite manager now, a whole different story!

[The Fun Factory]

It's good to be in the mix for the final countdown

[nick76]

8 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

It's good to be in the mix for the final countdown

I get teased a lot for being less optimistic a few months ago Europe but then loads were telling me we should be playing the kids now, we have nothing to play for, time to bed in the youth, which I disagreed with but I bet they are also not thinking the kids should be coming in now either.  Let’s get this European place.

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

49 minutes ago, Sulberto21 said:

I think it’s a disgrace that we’re no longer 11th. It’s our position. Why have we exceeded it??? Shocked!

Don't get ahead of yourself, we are only 17 points off 18th.

[Demitri_C]

29 minutes ago, SecretVillaScout said:

It is in our own hands because our fixtures apart from Forrest are all against the teams we are competing for Europe against. Win we gains points and also the other team drops points.

Half correct we still need other teams to drop points and a lot if the aim for some is top 6 or beyond

Hopwfully wecan do it =)

[duke313]

29 minutes ago, turvontour said:

It's about as in our own hands as it ever could be. Obviously in the extreme, all the teams around us could win all of their remaining games but assuming they finish the season broadly around their current forms then it's down to us as to where we want to finish.

Really simply, if we win the majority of our remaining games then we are absolutely minimum in the 5th-7th argument. If we dont win the majority of our remaining games and lose most of them, then its more likely to be 8th to 11th. It's all up to us. Other results will be other results.

They can't, they all play each other as well.

Newcastle - Brentford, Us, Spurs
Man U - Spurs, Us, Brighton, 
Spurs - Still to play Brighton, Newcastle, Man U, Liverpool, Us & Brentford
Brighton - Spurs, Man U, Us
Liverpool - Spurs, Brentford, Us
Brentford - Newcastle, Us, Liverpool, Spurs.

Looking at the above, Spurs could really be reeled in, they realistically could not win any of those games. 

We just have to keep getting results, if we can beat beat some of the teams above us we have a good chance.
 

[SecretVillaScout]

39 minutes ago, turvontour said:

It's about as in our own hands as it ever could be. Obviously in the extreme, all the teams around us could win all of their remaining games but assuming they finish the season broadly around their current forms then it's down to us as to where we want to finish.

Really simply, if we win the majority of our remaining games then we are absolutely minimum in the 5th-7th argument. If we dont win the majority of our remaining games and lose most of them, then its more likely to be 8th to 11th. It's all up to us. Other results will be other results.

Impossible. 

[Mark Albrighton]

56 minutes ago, rubberman said:

I'd love to see the stats on activity on this thread through the season. Quite the peak for the last few days I imagine.

I think the page numbers are slightly different for different people. 

That being said -

3rd September 2022 - 1st April 2023 (pre Chelsea game) about 58.5 pages worth of activity in just under 7 months (or 210 days).

1st April 2023 (post Chelsea game) - present about 25 pages worth of activity in fewer than 5 days.

 

So, basically before Chelsea, a page of speculation/hope every 3 and a half days on average to now which is 5 pages every day of speculation/ hope/ occasional thread traffic analysis being posted. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

15 minutes ago, duke313 said:

They can't, they all play each other as well.

Newcastle - Brentford, Us, Spurs
Man U - Spurs, Us, Brighton, 
Spurs - Still to play Brighton, Newcastle, Man U, Liverpool, Us & Brentford
Brighton - Spurs, Man U, Us
Liverpool - Spurs, Brentford, Us
Brentford - Newcastle, Us, Liverpool, Spurs.

Looking at the above, Spurs could really be reeled in, they realistically could not win any of those games. 

We just have to keep getting results, if we can beat beat some of the teams above us we have a good chance.
 

I think Newcastle will get 3rd. Howe really has done a fantastic job there and they look the business. Really are flying. 
 

Then there’s a genuine race for 4th place between United, Spurs, Brighton and as a real outside bet you have us and Liverpool. 
 

Realistically United will probably get it leaving 3 places for 4 teams.  
 

I think Brentford and Fulham will finish around midtable. Spurs look awful but they have match winners.  Brighton are flying but probably over achieving so May have a dip in form at some point.  Liverpool can easily  put a run of results together so will be around there too.

I personally think we’ll just miss out and finish around 8 but the fact that we are in the mix with 9 games is exciting stuff.  Villa Park really should be rocking for our remaining home games.

[duke313]

3 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I think Newcastle will get 3rd. Howe really has done a fantastic job there and they look the business. Really are flying. 
 

Then there’s a genuine race for 4th place between United, Spurs, Brighton and as a real outside bet you have us and Liverpool. 
 

Realistically United will probably get it leaving 3 places for 4 teams.  
 

I think Brentford and Fulham will finish around midtable. Spurs look awful but they have match winners.  Brighton are flying but probably over achieving so May have a dip in form at some point.  Liverpool can easily  put a run of results together so will be around there too.

I personally think we’ll just miss out and finish around 8 but the fact that we are in the mix with 9 games is exciting stuff.  Villa Park really should be rocking for our remaining home games.

Spurs are hard to predict, they really are terrible at the minute and have no manager. But as you say, they have players like Kane who can win a game himself.  I think they'll miss out on top 4, Newcastle has the momentum, and I would expect United to do enough.

[romavillan]

Spurs look to have a massive say in how it's going to turn out then, they've been inconsistent, sometimes amazing sometimes look lost. 

If we assume the worst and that the teams around us win their games in hand, I think that makes us 8th and 3 pts of 7th with 9 games to play. I wouldn't bet against us for 7th, not sure how feasible anything higher than that is though. It'll be hard to maintain our form, but if we do and the teams around us keep to theirs then over 9 games we should make up 3 or 4 points on our nearest rivals.

[maqroll]

2 hours ago, SecretVillaScout said:

Is this the real life?
Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landside,
No escape from reality
Open your eyes,
Look up to the skies and see,

 

Cute, but the post is from April 2022..

[duke313]

4 minutes ago, romavillan said:

Spurs look to have a massive say in how it's going to turn out then, they've been inconsistent, sometimes amazing sometimes look lost. 

If we assume the worst and that the teams around us win their games in hand, I think that makes us 8th and 3 pts of 7th with 9 games to play. I wouldn't bet against us for 7th, not sure how feasible anything higher than that is though. It'll be hard to maintain our form, but if we do and the teams around us keep to theirs then over 9 games we should make up 3 or 4 points on our nearest rivals.

The thing is, Brighton's two games at hand are against Man U and Newcastle, which is perfect, as it means at least 1 or possibly all 3 of them will drop points. Liverpool's game at hand is against Fulham, who are probably all but out of the race for Europe unless they take points of the scousers.

[romavillan]

22 minutes ago, duke313 said:

The thing is, Brighton's two games at hand are against Man U and Newcastle, which is perfect, as it means at least 1 or possibly all 3 of them will drop points. Liverpool's game at hand is against Fulham, who are probably all but out of the race for Europe unless they take points of the scousers.

It's a good idea to base things of the worst case though, until very recently just getting into the top ten looked hard. 7th is now realistically achievable if we can maintain 2 points a game form, even starting 3 points behind.

[nick76]

Just chatting with a mate and he asked that given our form, a summer of recruitment and Emery having more time with the squad and in the club, could we seriously, even as an outside chance, challenge for a top four next season!  Mind blown that with all the dominance of the big six, their money and the quality of their squads that you wouldn’t put it past us would you, however hard you think it would be.  Obviously solidifying regular top 6 is the aim but shows how far we have come.

As Villa fans, things tend to go wrong or at least fall short, but we have a real chance of progression over the coming seasons because everything is falling into place, just hope we can take our chance and become regular European playing team.