Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23

[cheltenham_villa]

1 hour ago, tomsky_11 said:

Because a 50% difference (this is a rough estimate but as I understand it a reasonable one based on a pretty longstanding trend) in points return on average isn't insignificant and seems reasonable to take this into account. Obviously for specific teams they might have significantly better or worse home/away records and could use these team specific splits if I could be bothered this morning (I can't).

He's the impact of taking out the home/away flex:

Minor differences to every but Brighton and Liverpool, enough to swap them between 1st and 3rd rank.

Note, this is just an analysis of the strength of the opponents, so our performance to date and those of the other teams in question is irrelevant, only the opponents' performance matters.

 Not sure how your analysis differs, here the link to the bbc article where it was mentioned http://surl.li/fozmo

"When Villa’s run-in is analysed, based on their opponents' points per game average of 1.45, only Forest (1.57) and Newcastle (1.50) have a harder climax to their seasons."

[paul514]

I said 4 games ago we needed to win 3 of the next 4 and they have done that.

We now sit in a place where we can move up the table and we play all the teams we are in competition with.

At the start of the season we would have said we don't have that bad a run in but looking at it now its pretty much the top half of the table.

It is in our hands at the moment and now we have a lot to play for now we are in touching distance of them which I feel is very important as the players should be right up for every match. 50 points minimum, should probably aim for about 55.

[John]

2 hours ago, John said:

  Back up where we belong, now let's... 

Didn't last long did it? I had not looked at the updated table after the Chelsea game.  Still, I would have bit their hand off, if someone had offered me the chance to be level on points with Chelsea, at this stage of the season.

Edited March 19, 2023 by John

[VillaChris]

4 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

Brentford on projected 59 points? They have aways at Liverpool, Man. United, Chelsea, Brighton, Spurs and Wolves left. Hopefully they can dig out 2-3 draws from that but that would leave them on 44 points and I can't see them winning all their home games.

Needs to be readjusted for Conte's rant aswell as I can't see Spurs players rousing themselves to get another 18 points on the board with their fixtures left especially away from home.

Aren't Man. United included in this? They're slowly getting drawn back into the pack. Newcastle beat them next game and they will go above them so they could be 5th by conclusion of the next fixtures. 

[tomsky_11]

1 hour ago, cheltenham_villa said:

 Not sure how your analysis differs, here the link to the bbc article where it was mentioned http://surl.li/fozmo

"When Villa’s run-in is analysed, based on their opponents' points per game average of 1.45, only Forest (1.57) and Newcastle (1.50) have a harder climax to their seasons."

Just based on the Villa figure and assuming the analysis is from the same date as the article, to me it looks either wrong or his definition of run-in is the last 10/11 games (and he's rounded down rather than to nearest 2dp) rather than "all the remaining games".

[tomsky_11]

4 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Brentford on projected 59 points?

Based on current ppg yes. My predictions for the remaining fixtures have them on 53, which is shown a page or two back.

6 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Needs to be readjusted for Conte's rant

As above, these numbers you've quoted are ppg under current manager based. I've got them at 61 on my predictions, which were done about 5-6 games back, so well before the rant.

8 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Aren't Man. United included in this?

No. Newcastle weren't in my orginal analysis but they fell back a bit straight after so added them. Utd to far ahead of us at this point to be at all relevant so nah not gonna bother adding them unless they completely tank the next month.

[PussEKatt]

I am just very very happy with the way we have been playing/the points we have been picking up and the onfield overall since U.E arrived.I look foreward to improving next season after Emery has had a proper window.

[tomsky_11]

1 hour ago, cheltenham_villa said:

 Not sure how your analysis differs, here the link to the bbc article where it was mentioned http://surl.li/fozmo

"When Villa’s run-in is analysed, based on their opponents' points per game average of 1.45, only Forest (1.57) and Newcastle (1.50) have a harder climax to their seasons."

Just looked at the Newcastle figures and his number makes no sense if based on ppg to date at the date of the article. (The same article was published on MOMS site a few days later, between which there had been further fixtures and the later version of the article with the same numbers is changed to state the analysis was "before last night's fixtures"). There is no possible length of run in for them that averages over 1.46ppg (the last 5 games assuming rearranged Brighton fixture is one of them), unless he means the last two games (including Brighton) which I doubt. At date of article, all their remaining games were 1.35ppg

 

Edited March 19, 2023 by tomsky_11

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

15 hours ago, GlobalVillan said:

They have some fantastic players and could very well have a good last 10 games or so with the squad they have.

Not saying they will, but it wouldn't surprise me of they ended up in yhe top 7 as those clubs always find a way in the end.

There are people (well someone) who thinks we are likely to finish in the top 7 and we are below Chelsea so....

I expect Chelsea to click and go on a run at some point.

Just too much quality.

I'd prefer that run started after we faced them but i have a bad feeling they will beat us and push on.

Edited March 19, 2023 by JAMAICAN-VILLAN

[DaveAV1]

2 hours ago, Delphinho123 said:

One game at a time. If we beat Chelsea, I’ll start to believe. 

In December 1980, standing on The Holte, I said to my mate, “can we win the league?” He replied, “we’ve got Liverpool in the New Year, if we beat them then yes, think we can win it.”  You know the rest. 

[VillaChris]

3 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

I expect Chelsea to click and go on a run at some point.

Just too much quality.

I'd prefer that run started after we faced them but i have a bad feeling they will beat us and push on.

Their last five away games are Manchester clubs, Arsenal, Wolves and Bournemouth.

Wouldn't shock me if they didn't win any of those and had a couple of 1-1s.

At home they have us, Liverpool, Brighton and Newcastle still to play.

They won't get much over 50 points. Real Madrid games will also take a fair bit off them. And they have Graham Potter managing them.

[viivvaa66]

1 hour ago, paul514 said:

I said 4 games ago we needed to win 3 of the next 4 and they have done that.

We now sit in a place where we can move up the table and we play all the teams we are in competition with.

At the start of the season we would have said we don't have that bad a run in but looking at it now its pretty much the top half of the table.

It is in our hands at the moment and now we have a lot to play for now we are in touching distance of them which I feel is very important as the players should be right up for every match. 50 points minimum, should probably aim for about 55.

It almost like nothing have changed, we still need to win 3 of the next 4 to keep up with the top half.

We have Chelsea, Fulham and Brentford in sight, but one or two winless matches could see them move out of reach again.

The next match, away against Chelsea, will be be crucial for the push for a top half finish. If we lose we would be 3 points adrift from the top half, and with our goal difference it is like 4 points. If we win, we are in the top half again for the first time since August.

[StewieGriffin]

I don't think we're out of the race, but wouldn't say we're exactly in it either. We need to string another or 3 wins together, which isnt impossible looking at the fixtures. Given that we've got to play all the teams that are involved, we've got a chance of being involved

[Leeroy]

Looking at the fixtures, I think aiming for around 18 points from the final 11 games is doable which would have us on 56 points. 5 wins, three draws and three defeats. 

 

Out of the fixtures, I would say we could win any of the following: Leicester, Forest, Newcastle, Brentford, Fulham, Wolves, Spurs and Brighton. The ones where I'd be very surprised if we won would be Chelsea, Man U and Liverpool, although Chelsea really are not great at all and I think we can easily take a point off them and possibly even win.

 

Of the home games, I think we can do well there: Forest should be three points, Fulham likewise who I think may run out of steam, Brighton we have a very good record against and I think we are capable of beating Newcastle and Spurs at home. If we got three wins from the home games, one draw and one defeat, that would be a reasonable return. 

 

The away games are more difficult to predict because our away form has been so good. Leicester on any given day could beat us but we could also beat them, a draw would be ok there. Brentford is a very difficult place to go as they haven't lost at home since September, so a draw again is quite likely although I actually think we might win. I think we can win at Wolves although another difficult game as they also have a very good manager. If we could win two of those games and draw the other, that would be very good. I think Chelsea away is on paper difficult but they don't look good on the pitch and Potter is struggling to bring the best out of a huge squad. I think a draw is doable. United and Liverpool away likely to be defeats. So two wins, two draws, two defeats from the away games. 

 

That's a return of 18 points leaving us with 56 points. I am probably being a bit ambitious with those predictions, but equally I don't think I am being totally unrealistic either. Five wins, three draws, three defeats is certainly achievable with our run-in and Emery in charge.

 

I've no idea where we would finish on 56 points, but I reckon it would be top 8. Probably just miss out on Europe but that may be a good thing as we can build this summer and I'm confident next season we can make top 7 if Emery is backed and we get our first choice targets in. 

[TheStagMan]

Well, we have opened up an 11 gap to the teams below us, closed up Chelsea's goal difference and are one point off 9th (2 realistically with GD), and 4 off sixth (5 realistically with GD).

 

Both us and Chelsea have reeled in the teams above us and pulled away from those below us. 

We should be able to finish top half. Anything above 10th is a bonus. Amazing considering we were facing relegation before Unai saved us.

[Kingman]

15 hours ago, GingerCollins29 said:

So many big games coming up. Chelsea, brentford and newcastle 3 that stick out against teams around us. Win those and who knows

We play 8 teams above us out of our remaining 11 fixtures 

Can you imagine the scenes at Villa Park on the final game of the season if its to decide the remaining European spot! 

[romavillan]

2 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

I expect Chelsea to click and go on a run at some point.

Just too much quality.

I'd prefer that run started after we faced them but i have a bad feeling they will beat us and push on.

They are conceding too many goals to go on a big winning run at the moment. Chelsea game is huge for us, if we beat them and go 10th the confidence boost will be worth another few points in the next few fixtures. Lose it though and it'll be a right slap down, still lots of games and points to play for afterwards obviously but it'll be a test of Emery to get a good reaction if we do get beat.

That said, I'd agree Chelsea have the best squad along with Liverpool in the group we are now in covered by 4 points from 6th to 11th. We've done so well to be in that group, it's a very tough ask for us to be in the top two of that group of six though. If Chelsea do get their shit together and Liverpool play to their potential Europe is a non issue all of a sudden. Just becomes about finishing as high up the table as we can.

[Vive_La_Villa]

4 hours ago, cheltenham_villa said:

 Not sure how your analysis differs, here the link to the bbc article where it was mentioned http://surl.li/fozmo

"When Villa’s run-in is analysed, based on their opponents' points per game average of 1.45, only Forest (1.57) and Newcastle (1.50) have a harder climax to their seasons."

Since Emery took over Villa have 26 points and Fulham have 17. So not sure about that largely matched Villa’s Emery era form as he put it. 
 

I expect us to finish above Fulham.

[Demitri_C]

I just hope we set  wrong with chelsea next game.  It was a complete travesty we lost at villa park. We are capable of beating thwm. If the slim hopes of europe are there then we need to go to the cheese bridge and win. Saints done it so why can't we?

[VillaChris]

1 minute ago, Demitri_C said:

I just hope we set  wrong with chelsea next game.  It was a complete travesty we lost at villa park. We are capable of beating thwm. If the slim hopes of europe are there then we need to go to the cheese bridge and win. Saints done it so why can't we?

The actual match is usually tight but we gift them ridiculous goals at key points.

 Usually Mings at the centre of that when you think he did that underhit backpass at 1-0 in the away game and then headed straight to Mount to gift them a goal at VP in a half we completely dominated.

Cash also did a really stupid challenge in the game last season when he got wrong side of their wide player and just lunged in to gift a penalty.

We need clear heads and to defend calmly when under pressure. Do that and I think we'll get something although Felix will be a tricky player for our backline to handle the way he drifts around forward line.