blandy Posted May 7, 2022 Moderator Share Posted May 7, 2022 6 hours ago, Jareth said: Gonna need more than a VT expert to decide which of the BBC/Sky and the Guardian have the right numbers - who would that be? I reckon they’re all wrong. None of the numbers add up completely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 7 hours ago, paul514 said: It was from the changes in seats at that point which played out when I checked the results at about 2pm this afternoon as well. I'll guarantee you right now that the conservatives win in 2024 I would probably agree but I wouldn't have based it on a single result which your original post did appear to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 8 hours ago, ml1dch said: Obviously I know it's not meant to be taken seriously, but blimey. I guess when Johnson is pretty toxic with pretty much everyone the only thing he has to fall back on is the perception that he’s a vote winner. If they accept that he’s now not even that anymore it becomes really difficult to see why they still need him? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 7 hours ago, paul514 said: Huh? Vote share increase is irrelevant in local elections its about seats. Labour is well known to pile the votes high in particular areas it doesn't get you more seats it needs to be spread wide. I know. My post was a reply to a suggestion that Labour’s small vote share increase in ONE seat if replicated across the UK would see them lose the next election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 7, 2022 Moderator Share Posted May 7, 2022 1 hour ago, blandy said: I reckon they’re all wrong. None of the numbers add up completely. The Guardians are more wrong, they are using their gains column in each council to feed the counter at the top, trouble is the gains column is utter bobbins. Bridgend, they have down as a 6 seat loss for the Tories, it’s actually 10. Merthyr they have as a 2 seat loss for the local Indie loons that were in power, which correct but they have Labour as no gain when they are plus 2. Then I looked at a few English ones and a lot of those just didn’t add up. An awful lot of the gain columns don’t add up to zero, which they should unless there was also a by-election I'm not convinced the BBC and Sky are right either because the BBC was definitely wrong early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phily85 Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 On 06/05/2022 at 07:33, bickster said: Another interesting result is Hull, where the LibDems won the council from Labour As a local this was very much down to some crazy decisions with new bus and cycle lanes. Caused absolute traffic chaos across the whole city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Mark Albrighton Posted May 7, 2022 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted May 7, 2022 Seems definitive and backs up why there’s an upbeat feeling from several outlets. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 With regard the different numbers from different news outlets the Guardian explained the reasons earlier: Quote Why do the seat tallies differ between outlets? A quick note to explain the data we’re publishing. You might have noticed that the tallies of the number of seats gained and lost so far by each party differs between outlets. This is for a number of reasons. Our data on councillor numbers comes from the PA Media news agency, which only reports on complete councils, while some sources report each council seat as it comes in. There are also differences in the point of comparison: PA calculates change based on the status of each seat just before the election, not on its status after the preceding election. Lastly, there are frequent changes in ward boundaries and the number of councillors per ward, to maintain equality of representation. This may mean that parties’ net seat changes in one particular council may not balance each other out. Election Live 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StanBalaban Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 11 hours ago, ml1dch said: Obviously I know it's not meant to be taken seriously, but blimey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 7, 2022 Moderator Share Posted May 7, 2022 26 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: With regard the different numbers from different news outlets the Guardian explained the reasons earlier: Election Live There's also how they take into account defections since last election It seems the Guardian feed is as follows Candidate elected as Labour in 2018, changes to Independent mid term, ward votes in Labour candidate again. Guardian is treating this as a Labour +1. I think the BBC etc are treating it as a 0 So the Guardian figures are changes on the composition of the council as it ended and not as elected Which also explains why the Others column in the Guardian figures has massive losses compared to BBC etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post mjmooney Posted May 7, 2022 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted May 7, 2022 Bad news for Michael Fabricant as Labour take Barnet. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 7, 2022 Moderator Share Posted May 7, 2022 And the Guardians figures are still wrong even after taking the above post into account Newham in London. in 2018 it had 60 seats and all of the were Labour by the close of the council it had 60 seats with Labour having 58 of them as two councillors resigned from the Labour Group to sit as Independents. The new Council will have 66 seats Now there seems to be consensus that the result is Labour 64 and Green 2 The Guardian has this as Labour +7 when even by their accounting methods it is +6. It has Green as +2 (correct) and Indies as -3. (again incorrect should be -2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted May 7, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted May 7, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, desensitized43 said: I guess when Johnson is pretty toxic with pretty much everyone the only thing he has to fall back on is the perception that he’s a vote winner. If they accept that he’s now not even that anymore it becomes really difficult to see why they still need him? Because there is no other option. If he slaughtered some children and drank their blood he would have to stay in situ because there is no other option....... apparently. Edited May 7, 2022 by sidcow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 I'm not sure there's anyone in the country giving this more scrutiny than @bickster 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparrow1988 Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 12 hours ago, rjw63 said: No idea! I knew that I read something like it somewhere. However I was wrong, it's actually more from the deceased than from paid-up members of the Tory party. Obviously donations from Russian Oligarchs and the extended family members of said Oligarchs are not included in this figure. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45271284 The Conservatives received twice as much money last year from the wills of deceased supporters than it did from living members, new figures reveal. Legacy payments totalled £1.69m while membership fees contributed £835,000, according to the party's 2017 accounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post mjmooney Posted May 7, 2022 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted May 7, 2022 Leeds remains Labour-controlled. My ward (Horsforth): Labour party gain from the Tories. Yesssss!!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 7, 2022 Moderator Share Posted May 7, 2022 54 minutes ago, mjmooney said: Leeds remains Labour-controlled. Leeds elected an actual SDP councillor. They still actually exist! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 No tory councils anywhere in Wales. Lost their last one in Monmouthshire, the home of private schools, rowing clubs, farming communities and a tory MP that thinks the Welsh language is dangerous and divisive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul514 Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 12 hours ago, Seat68 said: I would probably agree but I wouldn't have based it on a single result which your original post did appear to do. I was referring to the results at the time of that post which was like 100 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted May 7, 2022 Moderator Share Posted May 7, 2022 So, after the NI results, Irish unity can't be far away now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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