Summer Transfer Window 2022

[Follyfoot]

10 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Alan ( The Villa fan ) also called into TalkSport and said we would finish 4th above Chelsea... So

Is that Alan from Solihull who phones the WM football phone in regularly ? 

[Zatman]

12 minutes ago, Follyfoot said:

Is that Alan from Solihull who phones the WM football phone in regularly ? 

Is he Scottish and absolutely crazy  

[Laughable Chimp]

1 hour ago, MrBlack said:

Historically, wage bill has been the most accurate "value" metric to base predictions on. It's that still the case?

The fact they've got us in a different position from our squad value tells us they don't just use that (if at all) so how can you claim its mostly because of our squad value?

Which in any case, would be a pretty decent indicator.

Other than the 538 prediction I've not even seen another prediction that isn't from a fan.

 

They do use transfermarkt squad value. This isn't me speculating, they literally say it themselves on their website. They don't just use transfermarkt squad value obviously though.

What they essentially do is they look at how a team performed in the previous season and the pre-season transfermarkt squad value and then combine both to get an SPI value, their metric for how strong a team is. They then use that to simulate matches for the whole season. Generally, the SPI and a team's prediction position follows very closely so we can treat them as the same. For example, we're predicted at 8th in the table and have the 8th highest SPI.

The reason I believe why their model predicts us so highly and higher than almost all other teams we finished around is simply because of how high our transfermarkt squad value is compared to the almost every other team around us. We have 100 million euros more in squad value than 9th place in the table for example and even more than teams below that.

The model putting us above Leicester despite Leicester having a higher squad value is also very explainable. When 538 look at how a team performs in the previous season, they're looking at a lot more than just how many points a team got. They don't want to overrate a team just because they happened to get a string of "lucky" results for example. We don't have the exact metrics they use but as a very crude approximation, there's tables which measure things like expected points and expected goal difference and we happen to rank higher than Leicester in both. Combine this with the fact that Leicester's squad value is only very slightly higher than ours, it makes a lot of sense why we're predicted to finish even higher than them. Hence why we're predicted at 7th place despite having the 8th best squad value. You can explain every prediction they made with reference to similar methods

 

I'm not trying to make the point that their model is bad. I just want to say that their model isn't this obtuse black box where we have no idea how to make their predictions. They're all explainable based on what data most normal people have access to. I will say though, if all you care about is predicted team positions, I could probably make a very similar prediction table myself and it wouldn't be that far less accurate compared to what they did with much less effort and time put into it.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2022 by Laughable Chimp

[Laughable Chimp]

As to how accurate the wage bill is it predicting final positions, I think I'll have a look at that myself when I get back home. Sounds like a fun project.

[PaulMcGrath_5]

 

[Rustibrooks]

8 minutes ago, PaulMcGrath_5 said:

 

Talented player on his day it’s a shame his work rate and fitness is poor. 

[MrBlack]

1 hour ago, Laughable Chimp said:

They do use transfermarkt squad value. This isn't me speculating, they literally say it themselves on their website. They don't just use transfermarkt squad value obviously though.

What they essentially do is they look at how a team performed in the previous season and the pre-season transfermarkt squad value and then combine both to get an SPI value, their metric for how strong a team is. They then use that to simulate matches for the whole season. Generally, the SPI and a team's prediction position follows very closely so we can treat them as the same. For example, we're predicted at 8th in the table and have the 8th highest SPI.

The reason I believe why their model predicts us so highly and higher than almost all other teams we finished around is simply because of how high our transfermarkt squad value is compared to the almost every other team around us. We have 100 million euros more in squad value than 9th place in the table for example and even more than teams below that.

The model putting us above Leicester despite Leicester having a higher squad value is also very explainable. When 538 look at how a team performs in the previous season, they're looking at a lot more than just how many points a team got. They don't want to overrate a team just because they happened to get a string of "lucky" results for example. We don't have the exact metrics they use but as a very crude approximation, there's tables which measure things like expected points and expected goal difference and we happen to rank higher than Leicester in both. Combine this with the fact that Leicester's squad value is only very slightly higher than ours, it makes a lot of sense why we're predicted to finish even higher than them. Hence why we're predicted at 7th place despite having the 8th best squad value. You can explain every prediction they made with reference to similar methods

 

I'm not trying to make the point that their model is bad. I just want to say that their model isn't this obtuse black box where we have no idea how to make their predictions. They're all explainable based on what data most normal people have access to. I will say though, if all you care about is predicted team positions, I could probably make a very similar prediction table myself and it wouldn't be that far less accurate compared to what they did with much less effort and time put into it.

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for explaining.

I guess we still don't know the weight they apply to each metric they do use, but I felt your first point was more around it only being because we had an expensive team.

As you explain, it's also based on the most recent performance guide available for a team (I.e. last season's stats).

The fact we've shot up from 14th to 7th, and Leapfrogged a Leicester team that finished 8th and has a more expensive squad means they are definitely valuing other metrics significantly.

If you do look into the wage metric I'd be interested to know what you find out,l... as commented by another poster it is usually only something you can accurately check retrospectively, but has usually proven to be similar to how the league ended up. Any prediction using it has to be guesstimated based on assumed wages for players signed

[osmark86]

1 hour ago, Laughable Chimp said:

As to how accurate the wage bill is it predicting final positions, I think I'll have a look at that myself when I get back home. Sounds like a fun project.

Ooo that is a nice data science task. Be interested to see the correlation strength on that one.

[mottaloo]

2 hours ago, Follyfoot said:

Is that Alan from Solihull who phones the WM football phone in regularly ? 

If it is the same Alan then the geezer will have embarrassed us on national radio, yeah ?

Much as I guffaw at the sha doom and gloom merchants, along with the boggies and Doghead clowns, it kinda levels it up for me anyway when Al comes on air. 

Yeah ?

Edited August 2, 2022 by mottaloo

[Peter Griffin]

34 minutes ago, osmark86 said:

Ooo that is a nice data science task. Be interested to see the correlation strength on that one.

I would say it is quite close to +1, yes there will be some anomalies but the correlation will be there

Edited August 2, 2022 by Peter Griffin
Fixed a typo

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

2 hours ago, Follyfoot said:

Is that Alan from Solihull who phones the WM football phone in regularly ? 

I have no clue mate

[Vive_La_Villa]

Nerds.

Who does the supercomputer that has us 7 predict to win the league ?

Edited August 2, 2022 by Vive_La_Villa

[jacketspuds]

I can’t wait until we’re in a position where our squad is so good that other clubs will want to buy players that we want to sell.

Some of this can probably be attributed to financial constraints of many other clubs at the moment, but it still feels like our main option for players is to loan them out. Sometimes even with a year left on their contract.

Just feels like players such as Guilbert, El Ghazi, Traore and Hause are more likely to go on loan than us recouping some money for them. 2 of those are out of contract next summer as well.

[Delphinho123]

Just now, jacketspuds said:

I can’t wait until we’re in a position where our squad is so good that other clubs will want to buy players that we want to sell.

Some of this can probably be attributed to financial constraints of many other clubs at the moment, but it still feels like our main option for players is to loan them out. Sometimes even with a year left on their contract.

Just feels like players such as Guilbert, El Ghazi, Traore and Hause are more likely to go on loan than us recouping some money for them. 2 of those are out of contract next summer as well.

You could be right. I’m really hoping the delay in selling or loaning these players though is the club waiting to try and secure the best price for them later in the window. 

[romavillan]

16 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Nerds.

Who does the supercomputer that has us 7 predict to win the league ?

Acorn

[Teale's 'tache]

8 minutes ago, jacketspuds said:

I can’t wait until we’re in a position where our squad is so good that other clubs will want to buy players that we want to sell.

Some of this can probably be attributed to financial constraints of many other clubs at the moment, but it still feels like our main option for players is to loan them out. Sometimes even with a year left on their contract.

Just feels like players such as Guilbert, El Ghazi, Traore and Hause are more likely to go on loan than us recouping some money for them. 2 of those are out of contract next summer as well.

I think part of the problem is wages, and the fact that the Premier League as a whole pays way more.

It makes it's difficult to sell anyone abroad or down the league, because the player doesn't want to take a pay cut and clubs abroad or in the Championship simply can't afford them.

So the most likely place to get a sale is to another Premier League club, I'm not sure which clubs other than possibly the promoted ones, would want any of the players you mentioned.

I think there will be sales, but they may be closer to the end of the window when clubs and agents start to blink.

[PerryBarrPet]

56 minutes ago, osmark86 said:

Ooo that is a nice data science task. Be interested to see the correlation strength on that one.

Or even a 6 sigma reproducibility. 

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

22 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Nerds.

Who does the supercomputer that has us 7 predict to win the league ?

Probably @sir_gary_cahill predicting an " outstanding" season.

[maqroll]

13 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

You could be right. I’m really hoping the delay in selling or loaning these players though is the club waiting to try and secure the best price for them later in the window. 

They could be fall-back signings for clubs..still weeks left in the window. AEG must have a suitor back in The Neds or Turkey and Traore in France or Turkey or Portugal..or MLS if they're willing to go. Traore would feast in MLS. Look at Carles Gil. He's an elite player in America. 

[villaslash]

4 minutes ago, PerryBarrPet said:

Or even a 6 sigma reproducibility. 

So the rumour is we are signing Sigma Reproducibility as another 6. I hear he can also play as an 8. Perfect.