Relegation Avoidance Thread

[picicata]

I suppose it's natural that some will become nervous as teams below us win and we continue to lose.

One win is all it will take though and I really can't see us reaching the end of the season without winning at least one more game.

Hopefully tomorrow!

[kidlewis]

3 hours ago, abdulaziz1 said:

A win against Leicester would be great to give us some relief, a good chance of a top 10 place. Especially when we aren't in a risk of relegation. 

We need a run not just one win. 
 

hoping we can string 2-3 wins together and confidence is back. 
 

I know the league table is congested up to 8th really.

we lost our momentum and it is very frustrating. Not for relegation but we want to keep the like of Coutinho and bring in more players. Harder to do when you finish 16th rather than 8th.
 

Edited April 22, 2022 by kidlewis

[Zatman]

the truth is at least 5 games we should be taking points from the next 7. We have given Liverpool a game the last 2 times they came to Villa Park in the league so I would be pissed if we roll over like we did at Anfield. City I think we will also be up for it if the title is still on the line

[tomav84]

14 hours ago, WakefieldVillan said:

We're 200/1 with Skybet to go down. 

It was 500/1 last week.

Can't see it happening with our home fixtures left. But I'm sticking £20 on it just in case.

And no, I won't be happy with 4K! 

annoyingly i'd have given you 200/1. your £20 is better off in my pocket than sky's

[MWARLEY2]

Leeds could also be in massive trouble again  PALACE A  MAN CITY H ARSENAL A CHELSEA H BRIGHTON H BRENTFORD A 

[duke313]

13 hours ago, useless said:

There's an eight point gap between us and Burnley, really with goal difference it's a nine point gap.

we've also got a game in hand.

we also have to play them twice, two opportunities to widen the gap between them and ourselves, people might say it's also an opportunity for them to close the gap, but I'd rather have two fixtures against them in our remaining games than most other teams in the league, as they're not very good and we should be taking at least four points from those games.

we also happen to have an home game coming up against the worst team in the league a win in that game alone will pretty much guarantee us safety.

We've actually got four very winnable games to come, Norwich, Burnley twice, and Palace, a win in any one of those, or even just a couple of draws would see us safe.

It's not beyond the realms of possibility that we just go and beat Leicester and get it over and done with, they're favorites, but they'e still a midtable team this season and have been playing a lot of football which might help us, and surely we're due a win.

As well as all that Burnley and Everton or one of them might not even reach 36 points, we could already be safe.

We lost at home to the second worst team in the league.

[PaulC]

Will reconsider this after the next two games. If we loose them both the Burnley game will be massive. 

[romavillan]

21 hours ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Ok, I've seen this narrative pick up recently, but I don't remember Smith having to contend with too many injury issues. The only 2 players who missed a significant amount of games under Smith under were Traore and Bailey, and its not clear whether they would've been able to get into the starting 11 had they been fully fit either especially in hindsight considering Bailey's recent form with us. The 3-5-2 we played was also not forced upon him either, he chose to play that formation to accommodate Ings and Watkins together. I agree Gerrard has the better squad but I don't think he's had much better luck with injuries. 

Smith's PPG for us this season was 0.9. Gerrard's is 1.3.  To put it into context, that PPG ratio under Smith if continued for the rest of the season would put us in the relegation zone. The PPG under Gerrard would have us in the top 10. I consider that a dramatic improvement. Now you can make the case that Gerrard isn't performing better with the team compared to Smith last season, and that's a different can of worms, but this season its not even close. 

 

 

What narrative? There are facts and there things that aren't true. No-one is making up a story.

Smith had injuries to Watkins, Buendia, Traore and Bailey most importantly. There were others. He managed to play his best XI for about 45 minutes. Not a made up story. Apart from Nakamba Gerrard has had a fully fit squad for a while. Plus Coutinho and Digne.

I think the point is that Smith most likely would have improved on the 0.9ppg, he'd been in a bad dip of form with us a few times and always found a way to come out the other side before. It's also the case that if you give Smith the boot for under performing and then we finish the season looking over our shoulders at relegation then at the very least you want to be looking at why that might be the case. 

[The_Steve]

We aren’t looking at relegation at all. Stop this silly narrative. 

[useless]

Watkins played nine of Smith eleven league games this season, Buendia also only missed two of those eleven games.

Bailey and Traore have been injured for most of Gerrard's time with us, something that people seem to conveniently forget.

Bailey actually played in six of Smith's eleven games, we lost five of those.

[david-avfc]

Not worried about relegation, there are other teams between us and 18th and there’s a 8 point gap with just 6 & 7 games to go. Someone might go on a winning streak but not 2 or 3 teams all at once- they’re at the bottom for a reason. And we’re bound to pick up points at some point.
 

The realistic worry is finishing 15th or 16th and struggling to attract targets to help us push on in the summer, or existing players like Martinez wanting to find the exit door

[david-avfc]

21 hours ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Ok, I've seen this narrative pick up recently, but I don't remember Smith having to contend with too many injury issues. The only 2 players who missed a significant amount of games under Smith under were Traore and Bailey, and its not clear whether they would've been able to get into the starting 11 had they been fully fit either especially in hindsight considering Bailey's recent form with us. The 3-5-2 we played was also not forced upon him either, he chose to play that formation to accommodate Ings and Watkins together. I agree Gerrard has the better squad but I don't think he's had much better luck with injuries. 

Smith's PPG for us this season was 0.9. Gerrard's is 1.3.  To put it into context, that PPG ratio under Smith if continued for the rest of the season would put us in the relegation zone. The PPG under Gerrard would have us in the top 10. I consider that a dramatic improvement. Now you can make the case that Gerrard isn't performing better with the team compared to Smith last season, and that's a different can of worms, but this season its not even close. 

 

 

Targett, Watkins, Buendia were all injured for 1-2 months in preseason in addition to the injuries Traore and Bailey, and Trezeguet (whether or not he counts or not is debate-able) plus Luiz, Martinez, Mings coming back late from international duty in the summer. Fundamentally as a squad we just did not look fully fit during the opening weeks of the season. The 5 losses in a row was poor management, not fitness, but the lousy start in August before the first international break was definitely fitness related 

[Tayls]

3 hours ago, The_Steve said:

We aren’t looking at relegation at all. Stop this silly narrative. 

We should be looking at it, and preparing accordingly in case it happens. It’s quite possible that we will be one of the three teams going down. 

[Risso]

16 minutes ago, Tayls said:

We should be looking at it, and preparing accordingly in case it happens. It’s quite possible that we will be one of the three teams going down. 

What on earth are you talking about? Would you like to buy some magic beans?

[Tayls]

21 minutes ago, Risso said:

What on earth are you talking about? Would you like to buy some magic beans?

Talking about relegation… we are in the ‘Relegation Avoidance Thread’… a topic dedicated to the discussion of the possibility that Aston Villa might be relegated… 

Edited April 22, 2022 by Tayls

[icouldtelltheworld]

I think we need one more win to guarantee safety, until we achieve that win then we are in a relegation battle of sorts (FWIW I think there's practically a 0% chance of us getting relegated). Lose the next two games and I'll start to get a bit nervous though, and the longer we go without picking up points the more nervy things will get. You just know that Burnley will win at least one of their games against us, I also can't help feeling that Norwich will beat us on Smith's return.

As it stands, I reckon we finish 15th/16th and possibly only 4 or 5 points above the relegation zone. Frankly, that would be a disgrace.

(Watch us turn Leicester over tomorrow now and completely change my outlook).

[VillaChris]

5 hours ago, Tayls said:

Talking about relegation… we are in the ‘Relegation Avoidance Thread’… a topic dedicated to the discussion of the possibility that Aston Villa might be relegated… 

How does it happen though? We'd have to lose every single game left and even then I'm not convinced Everton will actually get to 37 points (as their GD will probably still be worse than ours).

You genuinely don't think Gerrard could lose 7-8 straight and his job not be in danger at all? We could easily do what we did in 10/11 and stick Gary Mac in charge and he'd probably have enough about him not to lose the Burnley game at least.

While it's mathematically still possible to go down I don't really foresee any logical way it actually happens tbh. People say we have brilliant owners yet they'd just let us lose game after game in the run in to secure 18th....dosen't really make sense to me.

Gerrard will be under serious pressure to stay in the job if he loses the next two imo...imagine the reaction if Norwich actually came here and won. DS would get a standing ovation coming off the pitch and Gerrard would probably get similar reaction to what McLeish got v Bolton.

That's why we need to start playing like a competent mid table team again and stop the rot by getting something v Leicester which should be achieveable.

[calcifer]

If we lose today (which I think we will) and Burnley beat Wolves they will be 5 points behind us. But will Everton beat Liverpool? No a hope! I think Everton will be in the drop zone by the end of the weekend. I think Leeds will beat Palace on Monday. 

 

Everton have to play Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal. Only winnable games are Brentford, Watford Leicester and Palace. 

Leeds have to play City, Chelsea and Arsenal. Only winnable games are Brighton, Brentford and Palace. 

Burnley have us twice, Suprzzz, Newcastle, Watford and Wolves. 

So as long as we beat Norwich that would be 39 points. We should win 1 vs Burnley so I will say 42 points will be a final tally

I think Everton will go down. 

Time for fantasy island If it went down to the last day we play City, imagine the scenes as Jack scores the winner that secures the title for City and dooms us... Thankfully that will never happen.... 

[R.Bear]

This thread is ridiculous. As for all the people putting money on Villa to get relegated, show your betting slips or **** off. At least then we'll have evidence of your disgusting betrayal rather than relying on lip service which I'm sure most of it is.

[HKP90]

Do we have to have this conversation every time we lose a run of games against top 8 teams? I mean the two games before that run against teams in and around us we scored 7 goals and conceded none.

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by HKP90