Vive_La_Villa Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 I personally think City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man U games are free hits. Anything from these 4 games is a bonus as their squads are miles ahead of the rest of the league. Every other team in the league we can beat. However Norwich aside I’d say every other team in the league will be thinking the same thing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 19 hours ago, messi11 said: Does 7th place get you europe? Often does but is not guaranteed. Only guaranteed European football down to 5th place - top 4 Champions League, 5th place Europa League. The other Europa League and the Europa Conference place are initially assigned to the FA Cup and League Cup winners respectively. They only pass to the next highest league finish if the Cup winner has already qualified by some other means. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKP90 Posted September 27, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted September 27, 2021 20 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: I personally think City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man U games are free hits. Anything from these 4 games is a bonus as their squads are miles ahead of the rest of the league. Every other team in the league we can beat. However Norwich aside I’d say every other team in the league will be thinking the same thing. Yeah, I think it will be competitive in the Mid-Table this year. Some really decent sides. For relegation, I reckon Norwich, Newcastle (if they stick with you know who), and pray God Burnley, who have been stinking up the joint for far too long. My picks for unexpected (but deserved) excellence- Brighton, Brentford and West Ham. Those guys will give any teams a headache. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 From what I've seen I think despite weekend results top 4 will be comfortably ahead of everyone so that usually means 5th downwards needs lower points totals than usual. Would be interesting who people think will finish 5th from what they've seen so far? Last two seasons Leicester have been there but they've had some disappointing results so far so perhaps not as strong and lost some motivation after winning FA cup. Spurs....chuckle. If Arsenal keep that 11 they played yesterday they'll have a good run but still have flaws and some mediocre players on their bench (honestly think we have a stronger squad than them nowadays). West Ham...some good results so far but think europa will hurt them as season goes on. Everton- showed v us they haven't got the depth if they have injuries. Brighton- Looking good but will probably have similar season to what we did yesterday. Not saying we will finish 5th but it dosen't look that impossible does it? We've already had injuries and major disruption over last two months and still can't get our best 11 out on the pitch yet are well over a point a game despite having a tough start on paper. That still has to come for some of the clubs listed above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Czarnikjak Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Not saying we will finish 5th but it dosen't look that impossible does it? It's not impossible. If I had to bet, I would say West Ham or Arsenal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pas5898 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Genuinely I think for various reasons, who finishes where from "the chasing pack" will come down to a bit luck, form and injuries, Not much to choose between Us, Leicester, Everton, Spurs, Arsenal, West Ham. Top 4 are in the distance. Leicester been brought down by Europe, missing Fofana and Evans continually struggling with Injury. Arsenal will Arsenal. Spurs have players who don't want to be there and I don't think Nuno's style will appease the masses. Everton and West Ham similar to us, West Ham probably a slightly better first team, but have Europe and a weaker squad. Brighton could sneak into the top half. If we keep the likes of Martinez, Mings, Konsa, Mcginn fit then we have every chance of "being there or there abouts" in 5th - 7th. 2/3 key injuries (like all teams) and we will be mid table again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, Czarnikjak said: It's not impossible. If I had to bet, I would say West Ham or Arsenal Yeah Arsenal feel the sort that could now lose one game in about three months so they can certainly establish themselves in top 6 up to xmas. Don't see it with West Ham. A place higher than last season despite playing more games (they'll probably have a decent run in europa) and still a bit short in some areas e.g upfront if Antonio gets injured. Probably too early to write off Leicester. They still have a very good squad of players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, pas5898 said: Genuinely I think for various reasons, who finishes where from "the chasing pack" will come down to a bit luck, form and injuries, Not much to choose between Us, Leicester, Everton, Spurs, Arsenal, West Ham. Top 4 are in the distance. Leicester been brought down by Europe, missing Fofana and Evans continually struggling with Injury. Arsenal will Arsenal. Spurs have players who don't want to be there and I don't think Nuno's style will appease the masses. Everton and West Ham similar to us, West Ham probably a slightly better first team, but have Europe and a weaker squad. Brighton could sneak into the top half. If we keep the likes of Martinez, Mings, Konsa, Mcginn fit then we have every chance of "being there or there abouts" in 5th - 7th. 2/3 key injuries (like all teams) and we will be mid table again. Spot on. I do think West Ham have a massive dependence on Antonio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKP90 Posted September 27, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted September 27, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: Spot on. I do think West Ham have a massive dependence on Antonio. He's good though. Top centre forward. I would also point out that if Brighton win their game in hand tonight (which I think they will) they go top. Obviously the league does not mean much at this point, and they have not had a mega hard run so far, but they've had good results against Leicester and Brentford who are both strong and enterprising teams. I reckon they'll finish in the top 8. Edited September 27, 2021 by HKP90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, HKP90 said: He's good though. Top centre forward. I would also point out that if Brighton win their game in hand tonight (which I think they will) they go top. Obviously the league does not mean much at this point, and they have not had a mega hard run so far, but they've had good results against Leicester and Brentford who are both strong and enterprising teams. I reckon they'll finish in the top 8. I think they’ll finish top 10. Their game against Leicester was scandalous though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBlack Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Isn't there a new European Conference type trophy tournament coming in for next season that 6th place qualifies you for (and potentially 8th depending on cup winners)? Or are we claiming that doesn't count as Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alreadyexists Posted September 27, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 minute ago, MrBlack said: Isn't there a new European Conference type trophy tournament coming in for next season that 6th place qualifies you for (and potentially 8th depending on cup winners)? Or are we claiming that doesn't count as Europe. I think it goes as low as 7th if the FA cup winner is a top four team (might be wrong though) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBlack Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, alreadyexists said: I think it goes as low as 7th if the FA cup winner is a top four team (might be wrong though) Just checked, it's the league cup winner that gets the EU conference place. Which will almost always be one of the top 5, so effectively yes 7th might get you that. Assumes that the fa Cup winner is also in the top 5... Top 4 - champs league 5th - europa league Fa - europa league League - europa conference. With FA and League cup places going to 6th and 7th in league if the winners were in the top 5 already. Seems likely.. and 7th place seems achievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 24 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Yeah Arsenal feel the sort that could now lose one game in about three months so they can certainly establish themselves in top 6 up to xmas. Don't see it with West Ham. A place higher than last season despite playing more games (they'll probably have a decent run in europa) and still a bit short in some areas e.g upfront if Antonio gets injured. Probably too early to write off Leicester. They still have a very good squad of players. Who knows with Arsenal. So many false dawns. Think West Ham have got that physical side to their game that will keep them up there. Leicester could go on a run. Cant see Brighton staying up there. Everton first 11 is pretty good but struggle when they get injuries. Dont think spurs will be in the mix. We have the squad now to push for a top 6 spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alreadyexists Posted September 27, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted September 27, 2021 27 minutes ago, MrBlack said: Just checked, it's the league cup winner that gets the EU conference place. Which will almost always be one of the top 5, so effectively yes 7th might get you that. Assumes that the fa Cup winner is also in the top 5... Top 4 - champs league 5th - europa league Fa - europa league League - europa conference. With FA and League cup places going to 6th and 7th in league if the winners were in the top 5 already. Seems likely.. and 7th place seems achievable. Seems really possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turvontour Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 2 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said: I personally think City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man U games are free hits. Anything from these 4 games is a bonus as their squads are miles ahead of the rest of the league. Every other team in the league we can beat. However Norwich aside I’d say every other team in the league will be thinking the same thing. I dont think they're free hits at all. I suppose it depends what we mean by free hits. On the one hand I kind of agree in that I wont be devastated if we lose any of those fixtures. But equally I think we should be targeting 8 to 10 points from them. It's not like us in the premier league years ago when that was a nailed on 2 to 3 points max. We took 7 from them last year and were very much in most of the games until the last few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, turvontour said: I dont think they're free hits at all. I suppose it depends what we mean by free hits. On the one hand I kind of agree in that I wont be devastated if we lose any of those fixtures. But equally I think we should be targeting 8 to 10 points from them. It's not like us in the premier league years ago when that was a nailed on 2 to 3 points max. We took 7 from them last year and were very much in most of the games until the last few minutes. This I guess. Suppose point I’m making is nearly every team in the league will be seeing us as a winnable game as much as we see them the same way. It’s a very tough league with not a massive difference between the teams out the top 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: This I guess. Suppose point I’m making is nearly every team in the league will be seeing us as a winnable game as much as we see them the same way. It’s a very tough league with not a massive difference between the teams out the top 4. Not sure on that. I think as season goes on many teams will start coming to VP and putting 10 men behind the ball, a bit like in the final two MON seasons when our home form wasn't very good so think plenty of teams will be happy getting a point off us e.g. when likes of Palace and Burnley come to VP. We have enough creativity in squad now to come up with the answers for those games so will be exciting. Edited September 27, 2021 by VillaChris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 13 hours ago, Adam2003 said: Spurs are dreadful which helps us in terms of Europe. In terms of next week… as someone else said, rare anyone loses four in a row in this league. Taking momentum out of the equation (which is clearly against them) there’s nothing statistically giving this weight. Teams lose 4 in a row all the time, even good ones. All that matters is that Aston Villa are playing Spurs on the weekend. The idea that Spurs get a boost because they’ve lost 3 in a row is counter intuitive and you should trust your intuition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alreadyexists Posted September 27, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted September 27, 2021 1 hour ago, dont_do_it_doug. said: Taking momentum out of the equation (which is clearly against them) there’s nothing statistically giving this weight. Teams lose 4 in a row all the time, even good ones. All that matters is that Aston Villa are playing Spurs on the weekend. The idea that Spurs get a boost because they’ve lost 3 in a row is counter intuitive and you should trust your intuition. Exactly. If you flip a coin five times and it come up heads, the next flip is still 50:50. I know that I’m over-simplifying the way humans respond to defeat, but still… Spurs form in all comps is: WLDLDL, so they’ve not won in five games. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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