Team shape, tactics and personnel

[TRO]

21 hours ago, MWARLEY2 said:

Whether we are playing particularly well is open to debate, but what we are doing now thanks to this genius of a man is playing as a team and following the plan. 

Players can have average games but because they follow the plan they end up impacting the match. 

We were a team of individuals but somehow we have morphed into a team greater than the sum of its parts.whicb is insane. That Ty interview on football daily yesterday where he said they  will be working on something at the start of the week tactically and they will not have a clue why until later in the week when he reveals why. Shows he is different gravy to anyone bar Saunders who has managed us in the colour age 

 

playing well is subjective, for me to win 10 draw 2 and lose 4 is playing well...despite a few blips with Leicester and Stevenage.

We are work in Progress, and we all know we need new players, so what has been done by the manager and players, is phenomenal.

currently, most players have improved dramatically and one of two, still lacking imo.

Parts of our play, is great, other parts need improving, but it will all take time and money.

The results are likely to camouflage the performances, right now, but we will get there, if we recruit right.

The style is subjective, i get that, but I will take that for the greater good of 3 points.

The one thing that encourages me more than anything is.......UE sees things......I wasn't convinced previous managers did, to the same degree.

 

[CVByrne]

Konsa and Mings into the top 20% of passing accuracy CBs in the League now. Mings plays more longer, medium and progressive passes which is explained in his passing accuracy over last 10 games at 88% where Konsa has 93%. Martinez now in top 20% for number of touches per game at avg of 40 for season. 

Mings still well on top for Interceptions and clearances. Impressive what coaching can do 

[tinker]

On 09/04/2023 at 17:15, MWARLEY2 said:

Whether we are playing particularly well is open to debate, but what we are doing now thanks to this genius of a man is playing as a team and following the plan. 

Players can have average games but because they follow the plan they end up impacting the match. 

We were a team of individuals but somehow we have morphed into a team greater than the sum of its parts.whicb is insane. That Ty interview on football daily yesterday where he said they  will be working on something at the start of the week tactically and they will not have a clue why until later in the week when he reveals why. Shows he is different gravy to anyone bar Saunders who has managed us in the colour age 

 

I can understand fans saying we are boring to watch when compared to our games in the past, but........

We can control games now from the back, dictate the tempo. It's frustrating when we need a goal but once we have that goal then it's vital we can control the tempo.

How many times have we been winning in a game and gave goals away, played to the other teams tempo and let the game become a ping pong ball type affair with chances at both ends of the pitch until someone scores. (Often it's ain't us)

We are not the finished article but this season has shown his ideas work, even with players that have had to learn a new way, players like Mings and Konsa who were so far away from being ball playing CD, the change is nothing short of amazing.

Credit to him and the players. 

[Made In Aston]

2 minutes ago, tinker said:

On 09/04/2023 at 15:15, MWARLEY2 said:

Whether we are playing particularly well is open to debate, but what we are doing now thanks to this genius of a man is playing as a team and following the plan. 

Players can have average games but because they follow the plan they end up impacting the match. 

We were a team of individuals but somehow we have morphed into a team greater than the sum of its parts.whicb is insane. That Ty interview on football daily yesterday where he said they  will be working on something at the start of the week tactically and they will not have a clue why until later in the week when he reveals why. Shows he is different gravy to anyone bar Saunders who has managed us in the colour age 

 

Expand  

I can understand fans saying we are boring to watch when compared to our games in the past, but........

I actually enjoy watching the plan being put into motion. Yes it's a bit slow for parts, but then we burst into life on the attack and that is genuinely entertaining to watch. 

[DJBOB]

5 hours ago, tinker said:

I can understand fans saying we are boring to watch when compared to our games in the past, but........

We can control games now from the back, dictate the tempo. It's frustrating when we need a goal but once we have that goal then it's vital we can control the tempo.

How many times have we been winning in a game and gave goals away, played to the other teams tempo and let the game become a ping pong ball type affair with chances at both ends of the pitch until someone scores. (Often it's ain't us)

We are not the finished article but this season has shown his ideas work, even with players that have had to learn a new way, players like Mings and Konsa who were so far away from being ball playing CD, the change is nothing short of amazing.

Credit to him and the players. 

Rather be boring with the ball than a heart attack without it.

[ChesterDad]

6 hours ago, tinker said:

I can understand fans saying we are boring to watch when compared to our games in the past, but........

We can control games now from the back, dictate the tempo. It's frustrating when we need a goal but once we have that goal then it's vital we can control the tempo.

How many times have we been winning in a game and gave goals away, played to the other teams tempo and let the game become a ping pong ball type affair with chances at both ends of the pitch until someone scores. (Often it's ain't us)

We are not the finished article but this season has shown his ideas work, even with players that have had to learn a new way, players like Mings and Konsa who were so far away from being ball playing CD, the change is nothing short of amazing.

Credit to him and the players. 

Compared to the fayre offered by the previous manager - I think we look like Brazil 

[duke313]

The Athletic have an article on CIty's tactics from last night, and how they utilized a 6-2-2 formation to nullify Bayern's attack in the closing stages of the match.  

Sounds familiar.  Our manager is so good even Pep is copying him 

[Villaphan04]

2 hours ago, duke313 said:

The Athletic have an article on CIty's tactics from last night, and how they utilized a 6-2-2 formation to nullify Bayern's attack in the closing stages of the match.  

Sounds familiar.  Our manager is so good even Pep is copying him 

 

 

[DJBOB]

10 minutes ago, Villaphan04 said:

 

 

The 3rd pic is a perfect example of the 6-2-2. Lots of space for the outside CB's in the back 3 but nowhere for them to pass it to but each other. A very difficult formation to break down.

Interestingly enough - both Pep and Arteta exploited the 6-2-2 by bravely going man for man in a 2-2-6 or 2-3-5 with one of the midfielders joining in the front line once in the final third. It requires the most technical of center backs so not all teams can do it and if we play our cards right now, Scharr and Botman cannot do the same so we just have to make sure we don't give up possession in transition for easy chances for Newcastle.

Edited April 12, 2023 by DJBOB

[ozvillafan]

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

I'm certain many will fly to the defense of xG and how important it is, but I'm not convinced.

We lost 4-2 to Leicester in a game where our xG was 2.38 and theirs was 1.35 (source: https://footystats.org/england/leicester-city-fc-vs-aston-villa-fc-h2h-stats#2782255)

We defended poorly that day: Martinez with a poor pass to Kamara for their first. Moreno missing a simple clearance for their 2nd.

Now compare that to Chelsea where we won 2-0. Their xG was 2.77 and ours was 0.77 (source: https://footystats.org/england/chelsea-fc-vs-aston-villa-fc-h2h-stats#2782323) - but we never looked like losing that game.

[MaVilla]

38 minutes ago, ozvillafan said:

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

I'm certain many will fly to the defense of xG and how important it is, but I'm not convinced.

We lost 4-2 to Leicester in a game where our xG was 2.38 and theirs was 1.35 (source: https://footystats.org/england/leicester-city-fc-vs-aston-villa-fc-h2h-stats#2782255)

We defended poorly that day: Martinez with a poor pass to Kamara for their first. Moreno missing a simple clearance for their 2nd.

Now compare that to Chelsea where we won 2-0. Their xG was 2.77 and ours was 0.77 (source: https://footystats.org/england/chelsea-fc-vs-aston-villa-fc-h2h-stats#2782323) - but we never looked like losing that game.

im not flying to the defence of xG, tbh it may be that it isnt as refined statistically as it could be etc, however, if you take it on face value, its just statistics, ie: the Chelsea game, "statistically" they should have scored 2-3 goals (if it was 2.77) based on the statistics of whether players score in those positions statistically.

That doesnt mean they will, or wont, but if in X position/scenario, a player scores 75% of the time, to have, for example, 4 of those types of chances against us over say.......4 games, and for all 4 of those to miss, becomes a more and more statistical anomaly/unlikely, you would expect to not continue.

xG isnt perfect i dont think, its not about possession, fancy play or such, its literally solely a statistical view on scoring goals, you can have 5% possession over 90 minutes, have a long ball, be clear through on goal, miss it, and probably get your 1xG (or .075 xG, depending on the statistical likelihood of your average player scoring that type of chance)

re the Chelsea game, they prob "should" have scored 2 goals, there have been other games recently where we gave away huge chances, where i was very surprised the opposition didnt score, then again, and again, just seems we are getting statistically lucky right now, but also, some of those will be missed on average, but i do feel like we are getting the rub of the green a little recently, which im happy for.

As opposed to usual Villa where it bounces off someones arse, then on to someones shin, then back on to someones arse and goes looping over the keeper and in to the goal, ie: an xG of 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001

[duke313]

Proof that xG is a load of bollocks.

[tinker]

The amount of chances we have crested around the box that have come to nothing because of the wrong ball or a mistimed pass must be huge. Against Leicester we cut them to ribbons for 15 minutes without scoring or even getting a shot on target. Bailey and Watkins have missed chances.....

I have watched all our games, for full 90 minutes and we have deserved all we have got. The one that got away ,for me, was Arsenal at home.  They scored an offside goal and we went gung ho to try and make up for the injustice of it all and ended up losing 4-2. You don't need stats if you watch the games in full..

[Tomaszk]

Teams never end up defying xG long term.

We're currently playing very well though, and deserve the results we're getting IMO. Martinez has been incredible as well, held absolutely everything near his goal.

If the good performances continue, it's more likely the xG starts to look healthier than the results turn. We do have a tough run-in, that's a fact. Draws and losses will come eventually.

[allani]

7 hours ago, MrBlack said:

Those metrics aren't perfect but they do align generally with most teams fortunes. 

What is worth noting is that Emery states as much after every game.  We won, but we can be better. 

Those stats give him something tangible to explain to his players when he continually demands more of them. That can only go on for so long before you start losing some people who feel the need to get recognised for achievements.  I'm sure Emery finds a near close to perfect balance of carrot and stick, but he isnt just saying it after we win. He genuinely knows we can be better. 

Yes, the points return isn't sustainable, but we're constantly improving and he'll have some of his own signings to add to the mix next season.

We're in a wonderful place and a downward trend may yet kick in before the season ends, but it won't change how elite Emery is.

I think the other thing here is that because the team is better balanced under Emery - if / when we concede a chance the opposition are generally under more pressure than they were under Gerrard or (I hate to say) Smith.  We aren't (generally) leaving midfielders free on the edge of the box with time to control the ball, pick their spot and stick it in the back of the net (with the notable exceptions of Leicester and the first 45 minutes against Man City).  Our defenders are winning more of the second balls so that if we do concede a shot then the opposition aren't getting as many simple tap-ins from rebounds.  Emi is also in terrific form and has made some great saves - but many you would now expect him to save more often than not (so as long as we keep him you'd expect that ratio of saves to remain high / higher than the average PL keeper).

We are clearly outperforming the strength of our individual players at the moment (no way that we have the third / fourth best team on paper).  But I don't think we have been reliant on being lucky - it is too long a streak already to be based on luck.  And then if we have sneaked a couple of lucky results - we can also point to some hard luck in the matches we haven't won (Arsenal being a classic case in both regards).

It should also be pointed out that similar things have been said about other Emery teams in the past too.  He has a career habit of winning more matches than stats alone might suggest.  That and the fact that I think with three quality signings, hopefully injury free seasons for Kamara and Carlos and the re-birth of Mings, McGinn and Ollie (to name but a few) our squad depth and "fit" for the Emery style of play will be even better next season.  I'm not saying we will match our current points return but I am certainly looking at next season thinking that we'd be "expecting" a much higher number of points from it than we've managed for a long time.

My other thought is that Emery seems better able to adapt when things are going against us.  Gerrard's main issue (apart from the fact that his Plan A was pretty flawed) was that he had no Plan B and so when results were going against us he found it impossible to reverse the trend.  Smith was the same - if you analyse our form under Smith we had a habit of either running very hot or very cold (there aren't that many examples of us winning one, losing one) - he seemed to find it hard to adapt when Plan A wasn't working.  After the City, Arsenal and Leicester results - Emery made a couple of slight changes and found a way to turn things around.  Not long ago the "experts" were talking about how many goals we'd conceded and yet we've gone from that to 5 clean sheets in 7 (whilst still playing some dangerous opposition).

[Indigo]

 

[tomsky_11]

8 hours ago, duke313 said:

Apparently we’re shit.

One thing I noticed after the Chelsea game was although the xG difference went in their favour, our xG per shot was more than double theirs. We created fewer chances, but this seems to suggest on average each attempt was more than twice as likely to go in. Wondered if this is a consistent trend under Emery and...

...Leeds and Spurs are the only anomalies in this sense in games we didn't lose. Maybe we benefitted from actually hitting the target more in these. (Our on target % overall is on average about 25% better than our oppenents in wins.)

Feels like generally though we are getting some gains from taking fewer but better shots and/or restricting our opponents to less high quality efforts. Certainly when we drastically fail in the latter we tend to lose.

[Frodo]

So we're just more efficient in front of goal

[duke313]

12 minutes ago, Frodo said:

So we're just more efficient in front of goal

No, it's just luck according to that Newcastle fan on Twitter.

[CVByrne]

2 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

One thing I noticed after the Chelsea game was although the xG difference went in their favour, our xG per shot was more than double theirs. We created fewer chances, but this seems to suggest on average each attempt was more than twice as likely to go in. Wondered if this is a consistent trend under Emery and...

...Leeds and Spurs are the only anomalies in this sense in games we didn't lose. Maybe we benefitted from actually hitting the target more in these. (Our on target % overall is on average about 25% better than our oppenents in wins.)

Feels like generally though we are getting some gains from taking fewer but better shots and/or restricting our opponents to less high quality efforts. Certainly when we drastically fail in the latter we tend to lose.

Yes, the way Emery wants us playing is to control possession and to work high value xG chances from each possession. That's the purpose of slow build up play from the back. Teams can work to a system that can consistently create chances and it's always repeatable. Wasting our slow build up play for low xG chances is wasteful and gives opposition possession and their chances to attack.