Brumstopdogs Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheltenham_villa Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 On 01/03/2023 at 10:37, gwi1890 said: He could score in every game until end of the season and not be picked. Southgate has picked him whenever he's been in form. I'd be shocked if he wasn't in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 (edited) and excellent detailed article on Watkins The Boot Room: Can Ollie Watkins now count himself as a clinical number 9? - 7500 To Holte (sbnation.com) Quote Typically, Watkins finishing is not actually the issue; as we have used data to show he mostly meets those projections. However, the disadvantageous positions he frequently has to shoot from as a result of his first touch often make the chance more difficult than it would be for a more clinically perceived player and is reflected in his lower xG. This is basically it. His first touch and ability to dribble past a player are his weak points. As a result when he gets through on goal or gets a break it's the touches before the shot which reduce the xG of the shot and not his ability to convert the shots to goals at the rate expected. What's good is his xG per shot has risen to 0.19 from 0.15 since Emery took over. So the coaching of what he should do to get better chances is helping his game. He needs that wide forward partner up top to really excel I feel Edited March 5, 2023 by CVByrne Extract added 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Quote Where Watkins can improve though is a sometimes heavy first touch, not the often cited finishing, which makes him easier to dispossess, and his decision making to get into advantageous scoring positions. The coaching work already done with the forward has had a clear benefit to his game, having already resulted in nine goal contributions, two of which have been assists for a Villa side that need to create more good chances if they are to hit the level required for European football. Under Emery, Villa will hope Watkins further develops to benefit the team as a clinical forward. This is the conclusion from that article. Which I totally agree with. Whatever we do next season, I can't see us signing a player to replace Watkins role in the team. It certainly has to be signing a player to play up top with him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 44 minutes ago, CVByrne said: and excellent detailed article on Watkins The Boot Room: Can Ollie Watkins now count himself as a clinical number 9? - 7500 To Holte (sbnation.com) This is basically it. His first touch and ability to dribble past a player are his weak points. As a result when he gets through on goal or gets a break it's the touches before the shot which reduce the xG of the shot and not his ability to convert the shots to goals at the rate expected. What's good is his xG per shot has risen to 0.19 from 0.15 since Emery took over. So the coaching of what he should do to get better chances is helping his game. He needs that wide forward partner up top to really excel I feel Not sure I totally agree. How many good one on ones with keepers has he’s failed to convert. That glorious chance yesterday where his first touch was great but he failed to finish. He’s playing great at the moment so I’m not going to be negative but while his first touch is poor comparatively, his finishing is not clinical either. I’m enjoying watching him play at the moment but I can’t agree totally with this. He’s on a wonderful run of form and goals at the moment, and seems confidence is key so let’s hope it all continues as all players have some weaknesses and we need to focus on his strengths. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 15 minutes ago, nick76 said: Not sure I totally agree. How many good one on ones with keepers has he’s failed to convert. That glorious chance yesterday where his first touch was great but he failed to finish. He’s playing great at the moment so I’m not going to be negative but while his first touch is poor comparatively, his finishing is not clinical either. I’m enjoying watching him play at the moment but I can’t agree totally with this. He’s on a wonderful run of form and goals at the moment, and seems confidence is key so let’s hope it all continues as all players have some weaknesses and we need to focus on his strengths. He hit outside of the post. So just barely off target and he's buried all his chances in the last 5 games. Stats just don't lie. He scores at his rate of xG. Which is the analytical way of measuring a players finishing (ie shooting ability). He scores at his xG and Mbappe scores at his xG. This idea of clinical finishes is mostly a myth created by football fans when in reality it's the movement and touches before the shot that separates the top players from the others. Movement to get into space, first touches to create higher xG shooting chances and ball control to turn one on ones with keepers into near certain goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 (edited) 14 minutes ago, CVByrne said: He hit outside of the post. So just barely off target and he's buried all his chances in the last 5 games. Stats just don't lie. He scores at his rate of xG. Which is the analytical way of measuring a players finishing (ie shooting ability). He scores at his xG and Mbappe scores at his xG. This idea of clinical finishes is mostly a myth created by football fans when in reality it's the movement and touches before the shot that separates the top players from the others. Movement to get into space, first touches to create higher xG shooting chances and ball control to turn one on ones with keepers into near certain goals. That’s rubbish, yes stats tell you loads and as a finance person I live in stats and data but in the same vein I know that that stats doesn’t always tell the whole story hence you never just rely just on stats on any analysis. It’s one tool of many tools you use. I don’t think you can argue he’s great in one on one situations, just plainly seeing with your eyes game after game since he signed. As for yesterday, yes he hit the outside of the post….which is called….a miss, and then it doesn’t matter whether he misses by an inch or ten yards, it’s still a miss. He’s playing really well at the moment and scoring really well but just as some are saying he was bad a few weeks ago, going to the other extreme and saying he’s clinical except it’s his first touch puts him in awkward positions is disingenuous because he’s had a much trouble when in good positions like the chance yesterday. We know his strengths and we know his weaknesses and Emery is getting the best out of him. As long as we are creating chances and playing to his strengths it looks like he will get goals but to say he’s clinical I still can’t agree with but then very few strikers are these days. Edited March 5, 2023 by nick76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom13 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 33 minutes ago, CVByrne said: This idea of clinical finishes is mostly a myth created by football fans no it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 hours ago, nick76 said: That’s rubbish, yes stats tell you loads and as a finance person I live in stats and data but in the same vein I know that that stats doesn’t always tell the whole story hence you never just rely just on stats on any analysis. It’s one tool of many tools you use. I don’t think you can argue he’s great in one on one situations, just plainly seeing with your eyes game after game since he signed. As for yesterday, yes he hit the outside of the post….which is called….a miss, and then it doesn’t matter whether he misses by an inch or ten yards, it’s still a miss. He’s playing really well at the moment and scoring really well but just as some are saying he was bad a few weeks ago, going to the other extreme and saying he’s clinical except it’s his first touch puts him in awkward positions is disingenuous because he’s had a much trouble when in good positions like the chance yesterday. We know his strengths and we know his weaknesses and Emery is getting the best out of him. As long as we are creating chances and playing to his strengths it looks like he will get goals but to say he’s clinical I still can’t agree with but then very few strikers are these days. Look, it would help if you actually read my posts. The whole point of my posts - and the article - was he is not good in one on ones, not because of his shooting but because of his touch, ball controls and decision making leading what other players would turn into a 0.6 or 0.7 xG when they shoot, Watkins is turning into a 0.3xG when he shoots or he fails to get a shot away. All Villa fans who watch us would say that's Watkins biggest issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, CVByrne said: Look, it would help if you actually read my posts. The whole point of my posts - and the article - was he is not good in one on ones, not because of his shooting but because of his touch, ball controls and decision making leading what other players would turn into a 0.6 or 0.7 xG when they shoot, Watkins is turning into a 0.3xG when he shoots or he fails to get a shot away. All Villa fans who watch us would say that's Watkins biggest issue. I did read your posts and I’m slightly disagreeing with your point. As I said in my first comment that even when it is a good chance, a higher individual xG, he’s not as clinical as he could be because as has been discussed over and over by fans we have seen that over and over again. Even before his current 5 goals, that was the main discussion in this thread about Ollie, that he did, as you said have poor first touch making his chance harder, plus when he had the right opportunity his shot wasn’t always great just like yesterday. Anyway I’m done with this conversation because we don’t agree and I don’t want to be negative about Ollie at the moment because he’s doing the business but your first comment needed addressing because it wasn’t correct. So now we move on and enjoy Ollie’s current form hopefully to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Risso Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Funnily enough yesterday his first touch was great, but the shot was awful, he's got to be scoring those, and I think if he'd put it away, we'd have won three or four nil by the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishVilla10 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rightdm00 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Motm. Scored one and saved another off the line. Just wait til he gets a quality strike partner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Your Round Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Great finish for his header, he’s thriving under Emery. I love to see it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted March 12, 2023 Moderator Share Posted March 12, 2023 Should be looking at being back in the England squad next week shouldn't he? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, OutByEaster? said: Should be looking at being back in the England squad next week shouldn't he? You never know with Southgate but he 100% deserves it. Obviously Kane is nailed on but other than him Ollie has to be at the head of the queue. Fair play to him. Never lets his head drop and regardless of form works his bollocks off and gives 100% every game. I love to see people with his attitude get what they deserve and do well so I hope he gets the call up. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaAlex Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 He's holding the ball up so much better these days too. He is playing superb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Much improved, but still don't think he'll ever be a top striker. That through ball from Ramsey was perfect to jump on and and have a go, Watkins just ran past it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Emery is taking him to a new level for sure, the improvement in his performances since Unai came in has been remarkable. Still, should have won the game today for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 If he only he scored that 1 on 1 in last match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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