Generic Virus Thread

[It's Your Round]

2 minutes ago, Xann said:

I'm beginning to think that mechanisms of administration need altered to offset the current fashion of bullshit governance.

Hancock, unable to avoid the spotlight, lies through his teeth.

Bet he wishes he could disappear after gaffes and misdemeanors, like that piece of shit Rees-Mogg.

Rees-Mogg hasn’t disappeared, he’s just busy revising the latest edition of his father’s disaster capitalism book. 

[It's Your Round]

4 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said:

When does the sheer amount of mistakes become hard to reconcile with good intention?

 

It’s already happened.

[Genie]

6 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

This is a good point, and connects to something I'm very frustrated by, which is that I expect that any increase in infections is going to be put at the door of 'irresponsible members of the public' (in parks, or visiting family) rather than where it is more likely to come from, which is workplaces that have been suddenly reopened, without enough thought given to how to ventilate them successfully to reduce the risk of infection.

Many of the businesses that the government want reopened are in manufacturing and construction, which are two sectors with already voluminous health and safety requirements, to which is going to be added concerns about effective social distancing. But companies appear not to have been given much time at all to work out how to protect their workforces from infection at the same time as maintaining eg fire safety standards. I really don't see why this couldn't have been announced in the middle of last week to give companies at least a week to work on this.

It is completely irresponsible to talk about easing of restrictions, getting people back into factories and building sites and also a reduction of the transmission rate. Its scientifically impossible unless he thinks that the changing of the seasons (this unproven theory about climatic impact) is going to offset the increase due to people coming out of their homes and working together.

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

 

All roads lead to the herd immunity strategy. Spread the virus around at a level that the NHS can cope with. High fatalities, but potentially quicker to get a nation that isn't reliant on a vaccine.

[Chindie]

Best hope this has a lasting immunity.

[HanoiVillan]

6 minutes ago, Genie said:

It is completely irresponsible to talk about easing of restrictions, getting people back into factories and building sites and also a reduction of the transmission rate. Its scientifically impossible unless he thinks that the changing of the seasons (this unproven theory about climatic impact) is going to offset the increase due to people coming out of their homes and working together.

I wouldn't go quite as far as 'scientifically impossible', because manufacturing and construction are still happening in Taiwan and Korea, for instance, which have much lower transmission rates than we do. But I would agree with a softer version of this point, which is that a] we don't yet have anything like the ability to test and trace that those countries do, and b] the timescales on this are ludicrous. Changing ventilation or airflow in a factory or workshop is a big thing, which can have serious fire safety implications, and would need time to implement safely, but the government want to give people detailed guidance *tomorrow* and then have them reopen *on Wednesday*:

 

[Xann]

 

[Awol]

The Nightingale hospitals are complete so the infrastructure is now ready to follow the policy they wanted to take from the beginning, but lacked the NHS capacity to pursue. 

It is true that we can’t suspend the economy indefinitely in the hope a vaccine comes through in 12-18 months, but the people who make that decision should be exposed to the same level of risk as everyone else.

Only then will employers be forced to rigidly apply the kind of mitigation (PPE all round) necessary to minimize the chance of infection. If the whole country (including kids) wore masks it would be a different situation, as the Taiwanese have demonstrated. If that means longer in quarantine until it can be supplied, so be it.

The German experience is showing how difficult coming out of lockdown will be unless everyone is masked up. 

 

[Lichfield Dean]

1 hour ago, sne said:

Wait, Invisible Touch a concept album about a deadly virus outbreak under useless government ?

Invisible Touch - well, you can't see the virus

Tonight Tonight Tonight - The pain of being stuck in lockdown alone

Land Of Confusion - yep

In Too Deep - well that's Boris

Anything She Does - A throwaway track about page 3 girls

Domino - A song about losing everything in the aftermath of a great disaster

Throwing It All Away - The government eventually giving up and walking away from the whole shambles

The Brazilian - erm...

[VILLAMARV]

2 minutes ago, It's Your Round said:

It’s already happened.

Harvard Business Review

Quote

MARKET RESEARCH

 

The Wisdom of Deliberate Mistakes

by Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Robert E. Gunther

From the June 2006 Issue

----------------

2. Decisions are made repeatedly.

A strategy of knowingly making errors is likely to be valuable in environments where core assumptions drive large numbers of routine decisions, 

---------------

https://hbr.org/2006/06/the-wisdom-of-deliberate-mistakes

I'll save some people the bother but quite a leap, I don't understand how the world works, the article is about market research in business not politics and, all things considered i am on reflection a knob.

Still, interesting reading imo.

[Genie]

10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I wouldn't go quite as far as 'scientifically impossible', because manufacturing and construction are still happening in Taiwan and Korea, for instance, which have much lower transmission rates than we do.

I meant from our current baseline, we can't send more people out of isolation AND expect a reduction in transmission rates (unless there is a bigger offset somewhere else).

[Davkaus]

Let me get this straight.

Any number of people from household A can go to the park together. They must stay 2 metres from anyone from another household.

A person from household B can also go to the park. They must stay 2 metres from anyone else. But if they know the people from household A, they can't go at the same time. 

If they're there at the same time, all but 1 person from household A must leave. and they still need to stay 2 metres apart, as if they were strangers.

As many people from household A can stay though, just as long as they aren't friends or family of the person in household B.

Does that about sum it up?

[HanoiVillan]

Just now, Genie said:

I meant from our current baseline, we can't send more people out of isolation AND expect a reduction in transmission rates (unless there is a bigger offset somewhere else).

Yes, I think we're in agreement. If nothing else changed, but more people went back to work, that would lead to a rise in transmission rates. However, other changes are happening, such as increased testing rates, which help to reduce the r0. What's not clear is that the factors pushing down the r0 will outweigh this new factor pushing it up, but my point is that's largely because companies haven't been given enough time to get this transition right from a physical and organisational perspective, rather than because it's impossible to do this with a high degree of safety. (Of course, some bosses are also dickheads who don't care about the health or safety of their workers, and it will suck more than ever to work for one of them right now).

[HanoiVillan]

2 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Let me get this straight.

Any number of people from household A can go to the park together. They must stay 2 metres from anyone from another household.

A person from household B can also go to the park. They must stay 2 metres from anyone else. But if they know the people from household A, they can't go at the same time. 

If they're there at the same time, all but 1 person from household A must leave. and they still need to stay 2 metres apart, as if they were strangers.

As many people from household A can stay though, just as long as they aren't friends or family of the person in household B.

Does that about sum it up?

Also, you can meet both of your parents in the park, as long as you remain two metres apart, but you can only meet one of your parents in their own back garden (I think?).

[Rodders]

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-unlocking-down-you-lead-i-furlough-daves-chicken-run/

Quote

A note on scrutiny: Astonishingly this afternoon’s session will mark the first time Johnson has even made a statement in the Commons on coronavirus, and only the second time he has turned up to make a statement on anything at all since this year. We’re also still waiting for his first appearance before the Commons liaison committee, eight and a half months into his premiership. More pressingly the PM has refused to give a press conference or a media interview for the past 11 days, and has managed just one presser since March 25, having been off sick for much of April. Aides say he will only take pre-recorded questions from the public tonight.

One of many analyses of the speech floating about n the web.Useful stuff in it, this did catch the eye a bit. There are some mitigating circumstances, but along with all the missing all of the Cobra meetings including to sort out his divorce ffs, the guy really is a bit useless. 

[Davkaus]

Just now, HanoiVillan said:

Also, you can meet both of your parents in the park, as long as you remain two metres apart, but you can only meet one of your parents in their own back garden (I think?).

This has been corrected. You can only meet one of them at a time. See @StefanAVFC's post above.

It's a farce. The rules make no sense, and even the cabinet don't understand them.

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, Davkaus said:

This has been corrected. You can only meet one of them at a time. See @StefanAVFC's post above.

It's a farce. The rules make no sense, and even the cabinet don't understand them.

Thanks. As you say, that makes no sense.

[Davkaus]

Just now, HanoiVillan said:

Thanks. As you say, that makes no sense.

I wonder what happens if your parents are separated. living in different households. Maybe you can see them both as long as you're all 2 metres apart and form a triangle. 

[Dodgyknees]

Boris can do all he likes as people will support him. Those who support him see themselves as the winning team as they are in power. They can sing their football songs, call lefties scum, do as they please. 

Saw this. Perfectly sums up the government.

 

[Genie]

7 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

This has been corrected. You can only meet one of them at a time. See @StefanAVFC's post above.

It's a farce. The rules make no sense, and even the cabinet don't understand them.

I agree the rules are messy, but what I think they are trying to avoid is huge family gatherings in public parks (but going about it the wrong way).