Generic Virus Thread

[LondonLax]

4 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

I know people are very worried about the number of people outside, but another day brings another paper (admittedly still awaiting peer-review) which suggests that there is a tiny amount of transmission outdoors, this time from cases in China:

Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2

'Background: By early April 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had infected nearly one million people and had spread to nearly all countries worldwide. It is essential to understand where and how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted. Methods: Case reports were extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020. We identified all outbreaks involving three or more cases and reviewed the major characteristics of the enclosed spaces in which the outbreaks were reported and associated indoor environmental issues. Results: Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.'

(from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1)

Of course it is possible that more people being outdoors will lead to greater transmission outdoors, but that isn't really what evidence is suggesting so far. I don't know what exactly is going to be announced by the government over the weekend, but allowing some restrictions on outdoor activity does not seem unreasonable to me. Mental health and physical fitness are also important.

This guy is going to be pissed when he reads that!

 

[VILLAMARV]

4 hours ago, BigJim said:

Don't you think it matters if scientists are being directed by lunatics to mess around with viruses to see if they can make them more virulent/lethal?

I could hardly imagine a practice that it would be more important to eliminate.

Obviously I don't know the truth behind any of the allegations floating around.  However, I have examined a little of what Mikovits has to say on a number of videos. It is clear that she is vastly experienced in the field and did a lot of important work in her day (Cancer/HIV). She claims she was directed to do this sort of experimenting on the ebola virus ffs.

Some people will immediately write her off as "antivacc" because of her claims of widespread contamination but she is not to be confused with the ill-informed lay people who have taken up that position.  I don't exclude the possibility that she has gone off the rails, but neither do I exclude the possibility that what she says about being shut down by nefarious interests is true. 

I took @Chindie's point to be more along the lines of there being plenty of time, after the event, to attribute blame if and where necessary. It hardly matters if it was a military thing or a corporate thing or a pangolin thing while we are in the middle of dealing with the fallout, the dead bodies piling up and getting back to some semblance of normality, and I'd agree with him on that (assuming I've understood his point correctly).

The last thing we need globally right now is people being whipped up into a frenzy based on some guy/girl on the internet who could well end up inciting violence and hatred while people are already, understandably, under much stress. That, historically, is how wars and rioting/civil disorder starts, and if people don't understand how bad things could get should a break down in law and order occur or a global conflict break out then I'd rather they learn through discourse than any practical demonstration myself.

People stoking these fires, under the current climate, are pretty base individuals to my mind. As I myself was getting at last night, it's not surprising to see the cited case seemingly doing so for financial gain. The YouTube video is about generating income and, it seems, an advert for an up coming feature length presentation. Get enough clicks and or sign up to that and she can knock this sciencing / doctoring malarkey on the head and buy a super yacht. 

I don't want to derail this thread any longer than necessary when there is a perfectly good conspiracy theory thread somewhere in the lower pages of off topic where, if anyone really feels the need to speculate at length, we can do that if we like (assuming the mods don't disagree!) But rather than anything a little more substantial we appear to have been forced into a few pages of discussion on 'research' which actually, it turns out, was just watching a video on an upload place. 

This deference to authority, whether to scientists on the YouTubes, or indeed the (behavioural) ones sitting on the SAGE panel is going to get us in real trouble eventually. Even idiots can get a PhD if they study a particular topic deeply enough. Peer review is important. That's not the same thing as toeing a govt line. And that's a distinction that seems to be being ignored in the post truth era. 

I'm pretty outspoken for this place, I think, when it comes to anti establishment sentiment. And I'd like to think I have an open mind to many/all possibilities. Biogenic research is way out of my sphere of knowledge or expertise. So I'd find it hard to comment on speculation around the virus' origins with any authority. 

As Terry says above we, as a species, have been messing about with all sorts of things for a long time. We are led to believe the US has a load of small pox locked away somewhere for example, we in the UK unfortunately have a history of employing tactics of chemical warfare. We do some murky shit. America dropped nukes on people for instance. But none of this is proof of malfeasance in the current climate and if we're going to whip ourselves into a frenzy I'd want to see some really concrete evidence before we descend into a state of anarchy or war.

Edited May 8, 2020 by VILLAMARV
Clarification on behavioural

[mikeyp102]

One thing that I have definitely noticed since the lockdown is more animals and wildlife about. It’s great, but also annoying as the birds wake me up every morning 

[VILLAMARV]

7 minutes ago, mikeyp102 said:

One thing that I have definitely noticed since the lockdown is more animals and wildlife about. It’s great, but also annoying as the birds wake me up every morning 

Birds woke me up too this morning. The new flat has the bedroom under a roof of an extension. It's like listening to the sound of rain in a caravan when it's wet and the birds gather on the high point of the apex when its nice. 

The squirrels in the park are doing well this year with lots more time to themselves without dogs chasing them constantly. 

[snowychap]

6 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

I know people are very worried about the number of people outside

Are people worried simply about the number of 'people outside' or what the number of people 'out and about' suggests about people following guidance, &c. re: gatherings, avoiding people from other households, soocial distancing, &c.?

6 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Of course it is possible that more people being outdoors will lead to greater transmission outdoors

Is it not possible that more people being outdoors will lead to greater contact/transmission indoors (people making the assumption that as it's safe to relax, or ignore, distancing outside that it applies inside too - that outdoor event with family and friends moves indoors when it gets a bit chilly, &c.)?

I also agree there ought to be some relaxation of the regulations (tbh, I wouldn't have made them anywhere near as stringent but with a much clearer, less confused message from Government & others) but I don't think we should assume that all people will understand what that might actually mean.

Edited May 8, 2020 by snowychap

[terrytini]

10 hours ago, mikeyp102 said:

One thing that I have definitely noticed.. It’s great as the birds wake me up every morning 

At last ! It’s my turn

[Davkaus]

1 hour ago, mikeyp102 said:

One thing that I have definitely noticed since the lockdown is more animals and wildlife about. It’s great, but also annoying as the birds wake me up every morning 

The bees are loving the fields being uncut and there being far more wildflowers than usual. The air is noticeably cleaner.

Humans really are a bit shit.

[Jareth]

I refuse to link to the Representatives for Wellingborough but the Telegraph headline is a quote from the Labour leader about VE day veterans in care homes - not sure about you chaps but that to me sure is looking like a slow but certain binning off of Boris. I mean it's the paper he writes for. Even Andrew Neil has been critical lately. I think he'll need more than a bit of oxygen in the coming weeks. 

[Stevo985]

17 minutes ago, Jareth said:

I refuse to link to the Representatives for Wellingborough but the Telegraph headline is a quote from the Labour leader about VE day veterans in care homes - not sure about you chaps but that to me sure is looking like a slow but certain binning off of Boris. I mean it's the paper he writes for. Even Andrew Neil has been critical lately. I think he'll need more than a bit of oxygen in the coming weeks. 

To have a positive headline about the Labour leader, in the Torygraph, on VE Day, with a thinly veiled dig at the conservatives, is surprising to say the very least!

[Lichfield Dean]

So the NHSX app has been open sourced. Good news and they should be congratulated on this.

Seems like the app is mostly ok from what I have read so far, although there are some question marks around device ID being transmitted to Google analytics/firebase. Overall though it is a positive step in the right direction.

They haven't open sourced the back end system though... Although the client side app source code tells us what is sent to the back end and therefore what data it has available to process.

[limpid]

10 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

But yeah it came from bats

The closest analogue is found in Pangolins.

SARS-CoV-2 contains no markers which would be present if the virus had been manipulated using any known techniques (and the techniques are not secret). Even if they were studying it in a lab, biology created it without assistance.

[Xela]

3 hours ago, VILLAMARV said:

The squirrels in the park are doing well this year with lots more time to themselves without dogs chasing them constantly. 

Grey squirrels deserve to be chased. They've invaded and forced the red squirrels out!

[VILLAMARV]

11 minutes ago, Xela said:

Grey squirrels deserve to be chased. They've invaded and forced the red squirrels out!

Yup, that and chopping all the trees down of course  

I especially love here how you didn't say 'by dogs', so now I get to imagine you, wheeling yourself round Sutton park chasing squirrels up trees

Edited May 8, 2020 by VILLAMARV

[Xela]

1 minute ago, VILLAMARV said:

I especially love here how you didn't say 'by dogs', so now I get to imagine you, wheeling yourself round Sutton park chasing squirrels up trees

Its my one hour of mandated exercise per day 

[mikeyp102]

33 minutes ago, Xela said:

Grey squirrels deserve to be chased. They've invaded and forced the red squirrels out!

Random fact, but you are allowed to kill grey squirrels as long as it’s done in a humane way

[Jareth]

I mean, how hard is it just to look at other countries months ahead of us in this thing, and copy what works? How on earth do we keep making it so difficult for ourselves? All I can think is that Johnson doesn't make many decisions and allows others to do so for him. 

Edited May 8, 2020 by Jareth

[HanoiVillan]

6 hours ago, LondonLax said:

This guy is going to be pissed when he reads that!

 

(sorry for the serious comment on the very funny video . . .)

Florida is quite interesting isn't it. Go back to spring break, and most people (including me!) were criticising irresponsible spring breakers for partying there as outbreaks grew across the rest of the country (and they were very irresponsible!). And Florida should really have been a complete disaster: it's the fifth-oldest state by median age, and is absolutely stuffed with old people's homes and retirement/lifestyle communities. The governor is a dumbshit mini-Trump who refused to impose any real lockdown order until April 1st, 12 days after California, Illionois and New York, and was busy using the opportunity to declare the WWE an 'essential business'. Yet Florida largely seems a 'dog that didn't bark'; while there has been a slight uptick in the rolling average new cases number since the end of April, average daily deaths have remained roughly stable since mid-April at under 50 per day, and there hasn't been a single day with more than 100 fatalities.

[HanoiVillan]

4 hours ago, snowychap said:

Is it not possible that more people being outdoors will lead to greater contact/transmission indoors (people making the assumption that as it's safe to relax, or ignore, distancing outside that it applies inside too - that outdoor event with family and friends moves indoors when it gets a bit chilly, &c.)?

I also agree there ought to be some relaxation of the regulations (tbh, I wouldn't have made them anywhere near as stringent but with a much clearer, less confused message from Government & others) but I don't think we should assume that all people will understand what that might actually mean.

You raise a good question, and it's a serious concern. It could be that people react to easing restrictions by behaving irresponsibly. However, it could also be that they don't. So far during this pandemic, the modelling the government has relied on has built in assumptions of huge numbers of people breaking the rules (for instance, the Imperial modelling expected 30% of symptomatic coronavirus cases to break quarantine) that have not come to pass.

I think we are probably at a point where the best answer may be 'take the plunge on relaxing some outdoor restrictions and see what happens, with the option of reimposing them again if things quickly go bad'.

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, Jareth said:

I mean, how hard is it just to look at other countries months ahead of us in this thing, and copy what works? How on earth do we keep making it so difficult for ourselves? All I can think is that Johnson doesn't make many decisions and allows others to do so for him. 

To be fair, this is a pretty well-known facet of Johnson's leadership style. It certainly characterises a lot of his time as Mayor of London.

[VILLAMARV]

Devolution says wait for monday when we can go outside for more than one exercise a day. 

There's a not uninteresting graph, with all colours n that.