Generic Virus Thread

[Stevo985]

5 minutes ago, Genie said:

Yeah, I certainly don’t agree with the fraud angle whoever posted was going after. 

He’s specifically talking about ONS figures too. So it’ll be deaths in the community he’s referring to where there definitely hasn’t been enough testing. 
 

AFAIK all of the deaths on hospitals have beeb confirmed with a positive Covid-19 test. It’ll just be deaths in care homes etc where there may have been judgements made

[Straggler]

Seoul has a population larger than London and is every bit as densly populated.

Seoul has had 2 deaths due to Covid19.

Quote

n February 16, a Sunday, a 61-year-old woman with a fever entered the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu, South Korea. She touched her finger to a digital scanner. She passed through a pair of glass doors and proceeded downstairs, to the prayer hall, where she sat with approximately 1,000 other worshippers in a large windowless room. Hours later, she exited the building and left behind a trail of pathogens that would lead to thousands of infections, triggering one of the largest coronavirus outbreaks in the world.

By the end of February, South Korea had the most COVID-19 patients of any country outside China. New confirmed cases were doubling every few days, and pharmacies were running out of face masks. More than a dozen countries imposed travel restrictions to protect their citizens from the Korean outbreak, including the U.S., which had, at the time, recorded an official COVID-19 death toll low enough to count on one hand.

But just as South Korea appeared to be descending into catastrophe, the country stopped the virus in its tracks.

 

[VILLAMARV]

2 hours ago, wazzap24 said:

Population density as in the number of people in a given area, and population density as in a lot of our population is dense (thick as mince) 

I just flagged myself up as the latter then  

[snowychap]

Quote

A cabinet minister has confirmed that 400,000 gowns from Turkey to protect medics from coronavirus have been impounded because they were poor quality, but he insisted “strong supplies” were now coming through to the frontline.

The personal protective equipment (PPE) from Turkey was heralded by ministers several weeks ago as “a very significant” shipment that would ease a shortage of gowns in the NHS, but the delivery turned into a shambles after it was repeatedly delayed.

In a final blow to the government, Brandon Lewis, the Northern Ireland secretary, acknowledged on Thursday that the gowns had in fact been useless for medical purposes.

...more

link

[VILLAMARV]

2 hours ago, Genie said:

Someone just shared this on FB.

Some people have Covid on their death certificates but were not tested, Is that right?

Yep. 

It will have a different ICD-10 clinical code to flag it as such but doctors and coroners can do this. As laid out by the WHO

Quote

The COVID-19 disease outbreak has been declared a public health emergency of international concern.

• • An emergency ICD-10 code of ‘U07.1 COVID-19, virus identified’ is assigned to a disease diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by laboratory testing.
  • An emergency ICD-10 code of ‘U07.2 COVID-19, virus not identified’ is assigned to a clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available.
  • Both U07.1 and U07.2 may be used for mortality coding as cause of death. See the International guidelines for certification and classification (coding) of COVID-19 as cause of death following the link below.

 

[HanoiVillan]

22 minutes ago, Straggler said:

Seoul has a population larger than London and is every bit as densly populated.

Seoul has had 2 deaths due to Covid19.

 

Seoul is significantly more densely-populated. What's more, the type of accommodation most people live in - huge apartmental buildings - would theoretically be more infectious, with lots of shared surfaces like handrails and elevator buttons in their communal areas.

I'm not much persuaded by the population density argument at all really. It's not a very useful measure generally - the population density of Russia is tiny, because there is a vast mass of land nobody lives on, but the population density of Moscow is very high. One measure called 'lived density' tries to correct this, by only measuring density in areas people actually live in, and by that measure England (but not the rest of the UK) is quite densely-populated but not unusually so (Spain and Holland are more densely-populated). Comparing cities with cities, London is quite spread out by European standards:

'In fact, Spain could claim to be the most densely populated major European country by this measure, despite its appearance on the map. This also helps explain why Spain has the most densely populated km² in Europe; more than 53,000 people inhabit a single 1km² area in Barcelona. France also has an area with more than 50,000 people in a single km², in Paris.

There are 33 1km² areas across Europe with a population of 40,000 or more: 23 are in Spain, and ten are in France. England’s most densely populated km², in West London, has just over 20,000 people in it. Globally, the highest figure is close to 200,000, in Dhaka, Bangladesh.'

data and quote from here: https://theconversation.com/think-your-country-is-crowded-these-maps-reveal-the-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-90345

[VILLAMARV]

I'm not clicking the youtube vid obviously but, if there is 'fraud' going on, the maker of that vid is either accusing doctors and coroners of unethical behaviour which is highly unlikely. Or he has made some remark maybe about the way the govt is counting the figures. Which, to be fair, may or may not be true, depending on his point. Which I won't find out about, coz I'm not watching the video. 

[Genie]

3 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said:

I'm not clicking the youtube vid obviously but, if there is 'fraud' going on, the maker of that vid is either accusing doctors and coroners of unethical behaviour which is highly unlikely. Or he has made some remark maybe about the way the govt is counting the figures. Which, to be fair, may or may not be true, depending on his point. Which I won't find out about, coz I'm not watching the video. 

What do you have against watching the video? It’s just a short comment stating that some people have Covid-19 as cause of death but we’re not formally tested.

There has been a couple of replies in this thread which seem to have cleared it up well. I also mentioned I didn’t personally see any fraud, it was just the title the uploader gave it.

In a nutshell having Covid-19 as cause of death without a test to 100% confirm it is fine and acceptable in certain scenarios.

[VILLAMARV]

2 hours ago, blandy said:

This subject started when @HanoiVillan posted the article and said it made him genuinely angry and that he had steam coming out of his ears.  My view is that indie and guardian readers are deemed by those papers to have sufficient intelligence to spot when an actor says something dim. That their readers don’t need a “won’t someone think of the children” level of nannying. It’s certainly not something that makes me angry, but we each have different triggers.
Breitbart on the other hand deems its readers have insufficient intelligence to spot they’re being fed a load of manure.

 

We can, and probably will agree to disagree about various readership's (I'm making words up now aren't I? ) levels of intelligence. 

We indeed started this round of our conversation on the matter after HV shared his thoughts on the 'must speak about Kevin' lady (and a shame in that context coz that's a great story/ film [I've only seen the movie myself] and she's allowed herself to talk shite in the press in order to sell her new book)

Forgive me if I'm wrong though, this subject has been plaguing this thread since day one and is being repeated time and time again in the national and international media. As such it's hard to point the finger at individual posters. 

I don't care what people individually think, and, I'd rather they share their thoughts and engage in rational discussion as you have done than throw their toys out the pram and stomp off to fb or wherever to continue their I'll informed opinion sharing. That's the only way people can get their heads around it. And I (kind of!) recall drunkenly suggesting to snowy that 'there must be the correct combination of words that can highlight the point effectively'

In other words, the really emotive thing is a communication problem, not an 'I know more than you/am a better person for knowing things' problem. But it's really dry eh? And it involves statistics (zzzzzz). 

Genuinely, thank you for persevering. Others have, rather publicly, withdrawn from the debate with varying degrees of affrontedness (and as you well know I'm historically no angel in that regard eh?) 

What makes me sad, is that, after getting to the bottom of why we really shouldn't repeat the words we've been talking about in the way people have (including the BBC and so on), the apparent desire to actually discuss the issues around 'the statistics' seems to disappear. 

As the above posts about 'fraud' highlight, there are actually lots of things we should probably discuss. 

[VILLAMARV]

20 minutes ago, Genie said:

What do you have against watching the video? It’s just a short comment stating that some people have Covid-19 as cause of death but we’re not formally tested.

There has been a couple of replies in this thread which seem to have cleared it up well. I also mentioned I didn’t personally see any fraud, it was just the title the uploader gave it.

In a nutshell having Covid-19 as cause of death without a test to 100% confirm it is fine and acceptable in certain scenarios.

I'm just making a point about the youtube algorithms. Click that and who knows what gets recommended next? 

If someone thinks the man at the podium said something that highlights fraud then cool, I'm sure if it means anything people will point out what that was. 

I haven't called you out on anything. Chill dude. 

[VILLAMARV]

Remember the day they switched from ONS figures to PHE figures? That was arguably fraudulent. 

"A person or thing intended to deceive others"

[Genie]

15 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said:

I'm just making a point about the youtube algorithms. Click that and who knows what gets recommended next? 

If someone thinks the man at the podium said something that highlights fraud then cool, I'm sure if it means anything people will point out what that was. 

I haven't called you out on anything. Chill dude. 

I’m perfectly chilled dude. I was just wondering why you're “obviously not clicking the video” that’s all.

I find it interesting to sometimes watch stupid conspiracy or fake news videos, doesn’t mean I believe them.

[VILLAMARV]

2 minutes ago, Genie said:

I’m perfectly chilled dude. I was just wondering why you're “obviously not clicking the video” that’s all.

I find it interesting to sometimes watch stupid conspiracy or fake news videos, doesn’t mean I believe them.

Glad to hear it, it wasn't previously obvious to me, and we've cleared that issue around reasons to click or not to click up. People in another thread were recently discussing watching snuff films on Facebook eh? It's an algorithmically slippery slope out there.

I watch all types of stuff too and I agree watching things isn't a measure of our beliefs. Like I said, I'm not calling you out on stuff and like the last bit of my reply to blandy suggests your post was a good/valid one. 

[Stevo985]

1 hour ago, VILLAMARV said:

I'm not clicking the youtube vid obviously but, if there is 'fraud' going on, the maker of that vid is either accusing doctors and coroners of unethical behaviour which is highly unlikely. Or he has made some remark maybe about the way the govt is counting the figures. Which, to be fair, may or may not be true, depending on his point. Which I won't find out about, coz I'm not watching the video. 

The YouTube channel is basically a conspiracy theory channel. Seems to be marketing itself as busting myths and outing scams but is instead just spreading misinformation. 
 

(not a dig at Genie. I too love watching this kind of stuff even if some of it is batshit crazy!)

[VILLAMARV]

1 minute ago, Stevo985 said:

The YouTube channel is basically a conspiracy theory channel. Seems to be marketing itself as busting myths and outing scams but is instead just spreading misinformation. 
 

(not a dig at Genie. I too love watching this kind of stuff even if some of it is batshit crazy!)

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said:

People in another thread were recently discussing watching snuff films on Facebook eh? It's an algorithmically slippery slope out there.

I think that was possibly me too

I accept that because I watched one video of a certain genre it will serve up more. That discussion was more about the lack of censorship on Facebook these days as there’s a lot of sexual and violent (murders etc) videos appearing. My kids are too young for accounts, but at some point they’ll what one and it’s no place at all for youngsters.

[Chindie]

I await some clearing in the woods announcing the (seemingly a little too eager) easing of the lockdown as 'VC Day'.

Preferably behind a podium outside of No.10.

It isn't like it was predictable at all.

 

[DCJonah]

Exercise Cygnus has been leaked to the Guardian and they're sharing it. 

Who could have predicted the tories wouldn't really give a shit about public workers and elderly people in care homes?

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by DCJonah

[snowychap]

 

[VILLAMARV]

3 hours ago, LondonLax said:

Countries who have handled this well have been proactive in finding people to test. They use a process called ‘contact tracing‘ where by anytime a person tests positive they ask the person about everyone they came in contact with in the previous 2 weeks, then they go out and track down and test all those people to determine if any of those people test positive. If any do they isolate them as well and then ask those people who they came in contact with, track the next batch of people down and test/isolate them and so on and so on.

It’s easy to see how you would churn through more than 100,000 tests a day if the UK was doing something like this. 

Top post. It's not like we don't know this either. We literally do this for certain types of diseases/viruses. AIDS the obvious example. 

I get it that if the amount of tests is finite it could be prohibitive to any meaningful outcome, or that the logistics for rolling this out nationally, on the scale we are talking about, is a proverbial minefield. 

There'll be plenty of time, after the event, to apportion blame and all that but it's hard to watch what's going on, especially around the phone app, and not think there's something fishy going on. The govt seem more concerned with contracts for serco et al, than tapping into the 750000 volunteers for example, who I'm sure would be more than willing to muck in. Perhaps the RLC has it covered and we the public are unaware. I don't get how the spoken about 3000 people and 15000 call centre staff is going to do anything any better.