Generic Virus Thread

[LondonLax]

5 hours ago, Awol said:

No, that’s wrong. Realism in the academic international relations sense is different to its meaning in daily conversation. It’s about how states interact with each other. 

On your other point herd immunity is the only exit strategy, either through mass infection or vaccination. If you think there’s another way then global science needs you to call them ASAP.

The other way out is virus suppression to the point that the reinfection rate drops below R1 and the virus spread burns out (As happened with Bird Flu).

I think that will be achieved in some countries like New Zealand for example (who will need to then test and quarantine any positive new arrivals) but for most we are likely too far gone. 

There is an essay here from the medical department of the University of NSW. It’s obviously hopeful it can still be achieved in Australia.

https://iser.med.unsw.edu.au/blog/busting-myths-about-covid-19-herd-immunity-children-and-lives-vs-jobs

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by LondonLax

[Stevo985]

8 minutes ago, Awol said:

Yeah!*
 

 

*Also the 4000 people who’ll be on life support in there by the end of next week... but Brexit! 

 

I don't think anyone is saying having the 4000 beds there is a bad thing. It's OBVIOUSLY a good thing and the right thing to do.

But it's the spinning it to be this amazing achievement that people have an issue with.

[Awol]

2 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

The other way out is virus suppression to the point that the reinfection rate drops below R1 and the virus spread burns out (As happened with SARS).

I think that will be achieved in some countries like New Zealand for example (who will need to then test and quarantine any positive new arrivals) but for most we are likely too far gone. 

There is an essay here from the medical department of the University of NSW. It’s obviously hopeful it can still be achieved in Australia.

https://iser.med.unsw.edu.au/blog/busting-myths-about-covid-19-herd-immunity-children-and-lives-vs-jobs

 

Cheers. Our CMO discussed this at the beginning of the outbreak and dismissed it on the basis of reinfection occurring again from elsewhere in the world - assuming we weren’t to pursue a policy of hermetically sealed borders, which no one wants. 

That’s why the scientists in UK settled on herd immunity as the only long-term way out of the problem. 

[leighavfc]

Another sister in law tale...... she has invited her f*****g boyfriend over to her moms house tonight. I am beyond livid... her mom has no control over her. The father in law is away at work until next week. This cannot happen the mother in law had stage 4 lymphoma last year... i just dont know what to do, neither are answering the phone to me as they have probably guessed i know and know whats coming.... i dont want to go over there as that will be as bad as them meeting.. do i ring the Police ? 

I say this cant happen because her mom but f**k me its illegal at the moment firstcand foremost!

Edited April 3, 2020 by leighavfc

[markavfc40]

20 minutes ago, Awol said:

Yeah!*
 

 

*Also the 4000 people who’ll be on life support in there by the end of next week... but Brexit! 

 

I think there are some things that deserve credit. I think though if you are going to give credit I would also at the same time be questioning why we started all this from such a low base of 4000 ICU beds. Had we had the levels of ICU beds (per 100,000 thousand people) of Italy we'd have had over 8000 ICU beds. Had we started this with the same amount of ICU beds per capita as Germany we'd have had over 18000. 

Half the reason why the government is frantically trying to put in place measures to deal with this crisis is because we have been running at pretty much max capacity within the NHS with zero slack. 

I, and I think a lot of people, find it hard to praise a Government for simply now trying to right years of wrongs and wilful neglect of our public services that has made what would have been a tough situation much harder. The fact they are fooling some though, or some who have been complicit in what they have done over the last 10 years are defending them, is no real surprise.

Edited April 3, 2020 by markavfc40

[Jareth]

3 minutes ago, Awol said:

That’s why the scientists in UK settled on herd immunity as the only long-term way out of the problem. 

You sure about that?

[LondonLax]

1 minute ago, Awol said:

Cheers. Our CMO discussed this at the beginning of the outbreak and dismissed it on the basis of reinfection occurring again from elsewhere in the world - assuming we weren’t to pursue a policy of hermetically sealed borders, which no one wants. 

That’s why the scientists in UK settled on herd immunity as the only long-term way out of the problem. 

Well you would need to test everyone on arrival in the country for the period until a vaccine was available. 

[tinker]

Witnessed a ding dong down the supermarket today, one bloke ignored the security guards request not to go shopping with his mrs , one person only. He pushed past and accompanied his mrs and ignored the guard. Then when he came out he started insulating the guard in front of waiting shoppers, disgraceful behaviour.

What type of people do this kind of thing, its just beyond my comprehension.

 

[Chindie]

Herd immunity is ultimately the only way this is going away at this point, but that'll be at the point of a vaccine being developed. The other option, mass infection, is basically unpalatable without mitigation as it'll cripple everything and make the blow exponentially harder.

The other option is allowing it to burn out, but that's a horse that's largely bolted in most places, and trying to get it to burn out now would require extremely draconian measures and require countries to basically stop for a while. With SARS that wasn't the case, it didn't spread as rampantly and it was quickly discovered the virus has a period of high infectiousness that could then be mitigated. This was around the world before we'd got our boots on.

[Awol]

6 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

I don't think anyone is saying having the 4000 beds there is a bad thing. It's OBVIOUSLY a good thing and the right thing to do.

But it's the spinning it to be this amazing achievement that people have an issue with.

Turning a shell with utilities into the country’s largest ever critical care facility, in only 9 days, is an amazing achievement. If it’s not, I’d like to know what amazing looks like?! 
 

 

[HanoiVillan]

4 minutes ago, leighavfc said:

Another sister in law tale...... she has invited her f*****g boyfriend over to her moms house tonight. I am beyond livid... her mom has no control over her. The father in law is away at work until next week. This cannot happen the mother in law had stage 4 lymphoma last year... i just dont know what to do, neither are answering the phone to me as they have probably guessed i know and know whats coming.... i dont want to go over there as that will be as bad as them meeting.. do i ring the Police ? 

Drive over and park your car so it's blocking the driveway but don't get out?

Truthfully it's a hard situation, I feel for you.

[foreveryoung]

Mrs just awake from night shift  literally front line NHS dealing with Corona patient's. She is considering bottling it now. Truth be told still no ppe just surgical masks, an now being silenced and threatened with dismissal if anyone posts on social media about the situation.  We have a 5 year old we dont want him to get it neither do I want it. Plenty are off on the sick already for no reason, other than being shit scared. Unfortunately might be our time. We cannot risk 12 hour shifts with just a surgical mask on, it's a disgrace. Mrs is going tonight and if no adequate PPE I've told her to go on the sick, it's not right, but we have no choice.

[Jareth]

3 minutes ago, leighavfc said:

Another sister in law tale...... she has invited her f*****g boyfriend over to her moms house tonight. I am beyond livid... her mom has no control over her. The father in law is away at work until next week. This cannot happen the mother in law had stage 4 lymphoma last year... i just dont know what to do, neither are answering the phone to me as they have probably guessed i know and know whats coming.... i dont want to go over there as that will be as bad as them meeting.. do i ring the Police ? 

Should all the in-laws 'disappear'? - well that's a question of some curiosity. 

[Stevo985]

Just now, Awol said:

Turning a shell with utilities into the country’s largest ever critical care facility, in only 9 days, is an amazing achievement. If it’s not, I’d like to know what amazing looks like?! 
 

 

Adequate PPE for frontline NHS workers would be a start

[Awol]

2 minutes ago, Jareth said:

You sure about that?

If you know different, please share. If not, please bother someone else. 

[Jareth]

1 minute ago, Awol said:

Turning a shell with utilities into the country’s largest ever critical care facility, in only 9 days, is an amazing achievement. 
 

SHOULD have been the headline

[snowychap]

5 minutes ago, tinker said:

he started insulating the guard

Warm-hearted?

[Awol]

4 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Well you would need to test everyone on arrival in the country for the period until a vaccine was available. 

Right, but carriers aren’t always symptomatic and you’d have to test and quarantine everyone coming across the border. You might manage that in a fairly remote country with low foot fall in airports, like NZ. Logistically in UK it would be a nightmare. We struggle to design and run simple processes at scale very well! 

[Enda]

30 minutes ago, Awol said:

@Jareth in your own time mate, a Nobel Prize awaits. 

Awol, I'm disappointed but not surprised.

"Herd immunity" is a correct answer to the wrong question. I am certain you have seen the "flatten the curve" appeals. Both curves in these appeals have the same fraction of the population catching the virus at some stage, the difference is at what time they catch it. Herd immunity over a long horizon instead of everyone catching it at once has two crucial advantages:

1. It gives the NHS a fighting chance to stay within capacity.

2. We'll have a better understanding of this beast in six days, nevermind six weeks or six months. Flattening the curve gives time for more research into how this disease spreads, which treatments work best and, one day, maybe a vaccine. If I am going to catch it, I want it when I know there's a bed in ICU and doctors have experience on how to deal with this, based on solid international evidence. That will come with time.

Everyone knows the ultimate outcome here is herd immunity. That's not the critique of HMG's response. It's the failure to control the herd immunity that people like Jareth critique.

[Davkaus]

9 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

Mrs just awake from night shift  literally front line NHS dealing with Corona patient's. She is considering bottling it now. Truth be told still no ppe just surgical masks, an now being silenced and threatened with dismissal if anyone posts on social media about the situation.  We have a 5 year old we dont want him to get it neither do I want it. Plenty are off on the sick already for no reason, other than being shit scared. Unfortunately might be our time. We cannot risk 12 hour shifts with just a surgical mask on, it's a disgrace. Mrs is going tonight and if no adequate PPE I've told her to go on the sick, it's not right, but we have no choice.

I'd have no criticism at all of any NHS workers that started to strike. Except, that's illegal now, isn't it.

They already have a pretty poor deal of relatively poor wages for an incredibly difficult, stressful job with people's lives in their hands and long shifts of unsociable hours, and now we ask them to risk their own lives.

It's ok though, people will be applauding at the funerals.

Edited April 3, 2020 by Davkaus