AvfcTheObsession Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Mjvilla said: So, we win lots and it's Grealish. We lose lots and it's the manager. Sure I haven't said that. This discussion started with Mantis' post that he remains unconvinced about Dean Smith being a good Championship manager, due to the way we played when we didn't have the services of the best player in the division for an extended run last time. I'm in the same camp, I believe Dean to be average rather than good at that level, hence constantly finishing in average positions with Brentford, compared to how they are doing now, as well as the awful form without Grealish as mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 43 minutes ago, sparrow1988 said: Probably about the expected win ratio consdering we'd be expected to win most games in the Championship (he had a little over 2/3 of a season I think) and lose most games in the PL. If he had two seasons and finished 13th both seasons in the PL he'd probably have a lower win ratio than that. I think win ratio's are expected to encapsulate all aspects of a managers job in one piece of criteria....as close is as possible. If you are in the higher league, you are expected to have better players commensurate with that league......its harder to win with less talented players, but the likelyhood then is, you would be in a lower league, so it negates that argument......if you go in to a higher league and buy worse players, then thats your own fault and it get reflected in results. Personally, while nothing is fool proof in evaluating managers, I think Win Ratio's is pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Nabby said: I'm saying he had enough input on the signings for him to take responsibility and not have the blame put on Suso .....so as I said - players signed at Brentford = credit to DOF - players signed at Villa = responsibility on DS Double standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, Mjvilla said: So, why when the club says we didn't expect to be in a relegation battle this season has everyone taken it as gospel. But when the club says we are a year ahead of plan and the plan was to get promoted this year, do you not believe them? If they didn't expect to be in a relegation battle then they were both naive and overconfident. It's possible that this is the case and one of the reasons we messed up so much in recruitment. We thought we were better than we are. We were obviously going to be in a relegation battle. And I'm not so sure there was "a plan" as much as make the best of the situation as we move along. I think when last season started the aim was promotion, then as Bruce failed and Smith came in we had to adjust for the situation as promotion looked unlikely. But then we did it anyway so we had to slap a squad together in record time. The club will say whatever they want to say. "The plan" is just words. We make it up as we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Mjvilla said: So, why when the club says we didn't expect to be in a relegation battle this season has everyone taken it as gospel. But when the club says we are a year ahead of plan and the plan was to get promoted this year, do you not believe them? I usually take a very cynical and jaundiced view on any club owner's claims. I am still waiting on our global marketing plan that Randy Lerner said. I am still waiting on a new North Stand. I am still waiting on Dr Tony's promise of being in the top 3 of the premier league (still can' believe he said that). I understand owners are not fans. All I want is just for this club to be run to its potential and in a sustainable way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mjvilla Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said: Basically this. I think to some extent its very difficult to differentiate the effect of the player himself and the manager from the performance we see on the pitch. So I don't see how people are so sure that the lack of quality we're seeing is a result of the managers performance and not the players being shit. Fixed. Easy this isn't it? I do agree that Smith could and probably should have done better. Edited July 10, 2020 by Mjvilla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom_avfc Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: Yeah if I'm understanding you right it's this kind of thing that's really irritating me. The insinuation that Smith is doing the absolute best he could do with the players he has (and also the insinuation that he had absolutely zero to do with transfers) We have shit players. They're not as shit as they look right now. It's possible for our players to be shit AND Dean Smith to be doing shit too. And that's exactly what is happening. I think the point about transfers is completely fair. Nobody has any idea as to how much involvement in any transfer dealings that he has but you'd like to think that he's at least consulted before we buy somebody. With regards to the squad - I think they are exactly as shit as they look now. We set up OK with a decent plan and have generally looked pretty good for the first 20 minutes or so of games. We then concede (normally to poor individual mistakes but yesterday to a terrible decision) and completely lose it. We don't really look like scoring and we have mistake after mistake in us. We've won seven games this season and I'd argue that more than one or two of those were pretty lucky undeserved victories. We looked better when we didn't have so many injuries at the start of the season. With each injury we have sustained we've in turn had to play Nyland, Davis, Hause and Taylor, none of whom were considered good enough to be first team regulars in the Championship. We have one genuine quality player who since lockdown has been nowhere near as effective as pre-lockdown for whatever reason. Our subs bench consists of players who weren't particularly good in the Championship and we have nobody who can make any impact when coming on (barring Elmo's goal against Newcastle). I genuinely think its impossible to argue that we are not within the three worst squads in the league. We've looked OK since lockdown without ever really looking like scoring goals (I don't think we carry any real goal threat in the squad to be fair) and with silly mistakes thrown in as usual. We look on a par with Watford, West Ham and Bournemouth since the restart but their much better individual players will lead them to pick up more points from similar performances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blasterpocket68 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 17 minutes ago, Mjvilla said: So, we win lots and it's Grealish. We lose lots and it's the manager. Sure never the manager Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 hours ago, tom_avfc said: I guess the more important question is whether we'd have bought this squad if Pochetinno was manager. I'd like to think he'd have been able to assemble a better squad initially. I could buy into the idea that Pochetinno could get a bit more out of this squad than Smith - he’s probably one of the top 10 coaches in the world but he has no particular track record of signing players has he? McDermott, Hitchens and Levy decided at Tottenham (with Pochetinno in a similar role to Smith here) and Southampton had a similar set up headed by Ross Wilson It’s a pointless argument though, in that Pochetinno or his like are not turning up at Villa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A'Villan Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, hippo said: Well weve been looking long term for about 10 years now. If anyone starts talking about "buying into the vision". "changing the ethos" or "laying long term foundations" - they can feck right off. Appoint the best manager we can with the aim of coming out the blocks on fire at the start of next season... There are two many variables to be planning for 5 - 10 years down the line. Keep the focus on the here and now and the future will take care of itself. Tomorrow belongs to those who prepare for it today. I agree with you wholeheartedly on the bold. Unfortunately though, for us, the phrase in bold is witty and useful because it takes something that can be difficult to grasp and makes it simple, it's not actually a blueprint for success. It's a wonderfully simple reminder that if we keep things focused and spirit in check, the work in which needs doing in order to triumph gets done, as opposed to being distracted. The here and now for Villa, what does that mean? For me, we had a 40% turnover in squad personnel at seasons beginning, with the other clubs averaging at most a 10% turnover. We lacked chemistry. We lacked experience. We lacked depth. With the exception of a few excellent acquisitions, we even lacked in talent ready for this league. I'm not really here to debate what next. As far as I'm concerned I'm still comfortable with Smith at the helm. When I say that, I'm not suggesting, by any means that it's certain he'll prove the man we need him to be. I think he did great in the championship, even when results weren't coming. I think he's had absolute mountains to move in achieving survival this season. The margins for error were fine, always were going to be, and we've had our fair share of errors being a result of our own doing, and at times unfortunate situations out of our hands. Edited July 10, 2020 by A'Villan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 27 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said: I don't see how people are so sure that the lack of quality we're seeing is a result of the players being shit and not the manager's inept coaching, motivation and tactics. ....and vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, VillaCas said: ....and vice versa It's both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blasterpocket68 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 29 minutes ago, Mjvilla said: Please tell me where I have said he is blameless for recruitment? Just because you have emboldened your post, doesn't make it any more right or wrong. I have my opinion, you have yours. We had the shorter summer out of everyone to build a whole squad, but it's ok because he managed to watch a few games??? Give me a break. I do point out football is about opinions , He was seen like it or not scouting players - Like it or not he has to take the responsibility for building the squad , apologise for the em-boldness spent all day in excel but just making my opinion ! there are clearly different camps and opinions on Smith it clear were in opposite camps here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Laughable Chimp said: Basically this. I think to some extent its very difficult to differentiate the effect of the player himself and the manager from the performance we see on the pitch. So I don't see how people are so sure that the lack of quality we're seeing is a result of the players being shit and not the manager's inept coaching, motivation and tactics. This argument has algae & moss around it.....It is widely accepted in and around football that results and performances are down to the manager......when they win titles they take the accolades and when they get relegated they take the responsibility....and in most circles take the responsibility for what players they have. The buck stops with them, they know that, when they sign up and their friends and peers in the industry accept that......its not what is fair or unfair, that is the accepted thing. I do not want Dean to resort to Flagellation or Penance, but for a relegated bound manager, he looks remarkable calm, his No 2 does too.....its almost like he don't quite get it. I am not trying to be clever here, but after watching this team for as long as I have, I can tell you, foreboding has been with me most of the season....I could see this coming, its not about Man U or Liverpool or Chelsea or Spurs......its about the rest...sure I feed off hope in the main, but my Brain tells me, you are fooling yourself. We have no leaders or characters that can hold things together in times like this, they are the types that can keep you in this league, albeit the lower section....almost everyone right through the club is learning, so there is no one to learn from....John Terry, is the only one who has done it consistently at the highest level and I am not sure what the situation is there he looks forlorn and cut adrift. Make no mistake here, Mason Greenwood would not have scored last night if he played for us, the belief has gone and if their is a tad in us, the first goal in every game drains us...( However last nights decision was disgraceful, Fernandes should have walked, if anything) I have no doubt in my mind, that if/when we go down.....The stigma that Dean has engendered in this seasons football will not drift away, it will be carried in players minds in to the championship and it will be difficult to get that belief in him back......i.e when a prize fighter gets a few batterings, that precious belief evaporates and the prospect of winning, far more distant.....furthermore the opponent gains the confidence to compound the issue. No, In my mind he has to go. Edited July 10, 2020 by TRO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PussEKatt Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 hour ago, tom_avfc said: I mean without the penalty nobody has any idea what happens. Goals change games of football. We were the better team up to the penalty and lost our way afterwards. I don't for one second believe that Smith will not have spoken to the players about their response to going behind but its difficult especially in the circumstances. Do I have an issue with Smith mentioning the penalty post match? Not at all - its the big turning point of the match and he will have been asked several questions specifically about it. I guess its easy to pick positive things out of a manager's post match interview when his team is doing well and easy to twist anything a manager says when his team is performing badly. Here is part of what Petrov said on "Newsnow" As a club, as a team - performances this season, it's not been good enough. If we start nitpicking at little incidents, we can go back to Sheffield United earlier after the pandemic," said Petrov speaking to BBC Radio 5 Live. "It wasn't the issue. I don't think the penalty incident was the issue for Villa at the moment. I think this is something used to deflect from what is happening. "I think the performance was flat. I didn't see any leadership, desire or a willingness to win. This is the main concern for me, not the penalty. "When you're in a relegation battle and you fight for your life to survive - if you do not have leaders or players with strong mentality, this could affect you. "The problem? The reaction afterwards. It looks like we did not go for it. It looks like we did not believe in ourselves. This is the biggest concern for me, not the penalty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, sne said: It's both. It could be. In what proportion is the question I think Smith has made mistakes or learnt lessons if we are to put a positive spin on it, but I believe that the overwhelming problem is the lack of quality and experience in the squad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaCas Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, TRO said: It is widely accepted in and around football that results and performances are down to the manager Complete nonsense. Managers have an impact but quality of player available is at least as important and probably more so OGS is an absolute case in point, with crap players at Cardiff his win ratio was 30%, now by being in the right place at the right time is he all of a sudden a great manager? NO, he’s just got very very good players. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabby Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, TRO said: This argument has algae & moss around it.....It is widely accepted in and around football that results and performances are down to the manager......when they win titles they take the accolades and when they get relegated they take the responsibility....and in most circles take the responsibility for what players they have. The buck stops with them, they know that, when they sign up and their friends and peers in the industry accept that......its not what is fair or unfair, that is the accepted thing. I do not want Dean to resprt to Flagellation or Penance, but for a relegated bound manager, he looks remarkable calm, his No 2 does too.....its almost like he don't quite get it. I am not trying to be clever here, but after watching this team for as long as I have, I can tell you, foreboding has been with me most of the season....I could see this coming, its not about Man U or Liverpool or Chelsea or Spurs......its about the rest...sure I feed off hope in the main, but me Brain tells me, you are fooling yourself. We have no leaders or characters that can hold things together in times like this, they are the types that can keep you in this league, albeit the lower section....almost everyone right through the club is learning, so there is no one to learn from....John Terry, is the only one who has done it consistently at the highest level and I am not sure what the situation is there he looks forlorn and cut adrift. Make no mistake here, Mason Greenwood would not have scored last night if he played for us, the belief has gone and if their is a tad in us, the first goal in every game drains us...( However last nights decision was disgraceful, Fernandes should have walked, if anything) I have no doubt in my mind, that if/when we go down.....The stigma that Dean has engendered in this seasons football will not drift away, it will be carried in players minds in to the championship and it will be difficult to get that belief in him back......i.e when a prize fighter gets a few batterings, that precious belief evaporates and the prospect of winning, far more distant.....furthermore the opponent gains the confidence to compound the issue. No, In my mind he has to go. Like winning games becomes a habit losing is the same.Its why when teams are relegated they don't just improve when they have dropped down a level. The team is low on confidence except Luiz who is the only player to have improved. Nyland before the break was brilliant in the league cup games and came back a bag of nerves.Deam says confidence is not an issue , how he comes to that conclusion I have no idea its obvious from the body language and how poor we are at the attacking aspect of our game now. You can't swap players during the season but you can change manager and hope he can galvanize a squad even if its a short term bounce , Watford a perfect example.They have been as poor as us recently but the bounce they got from Pearson joining looks to be just about enough to stay up. I know you need to take into account the break but its 6 months since the team experienced a win despite all the talk there is no way that doesn't effect players mentally.Whilst not as bad as 2016 the rot as set in and Dean has not been able to turn it around.His latest comments about dusting ourselves down are back to the Bruce ( roll up our sleeves ) Lambert ( We go again ) management speak of having no real answers for what is happening during the games.We don't even play good football now , we lump the ball forward as much as any team in the league if not more.Norwich as poor as they have at least carried on passing the ball well. On your points about him being too calm , what I would say is he doesn't seem to be able to get a reaction from the players which is a bigger issue when no crowd to help with that. Just all in all a sorry state of affairs , I still have hope and would love it if we could find something in the last 4 games but I just can't see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graham t Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 4 hours ago, lexicon said: I don't agree with this entirely, because I don't see 'lack of effort' as being a massive problem in the squad - certainly not like it was when we went down last time. I think the only two players who hold back on that front are AEG and Hourihane. Effort alone does not cut the mustard anymore. I'm sorry, it just doesn't. Trezeguet runs around like a madman half the time, but what good does it do? You need talent. You can't survive in the prem without it. As for the spine - what's the spine of the team in your opinion? For me, Wesley and Heaton were meant to play a big part in it - yet we lost them both in the same game, barely halfway through the season. Was that Smith's fault? No. Did we have the funds to replace our first choice goalie and striker? No, because we had to spend so much in the summer. There are so many mitigating circumstances this season. 'Mitigating circumstances ', I think you will find that these are normally called 'excuses '..... VLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, VillaCas said: Complete nonsense. Managers have an impact but quality of player available is at least as important and probably more so OGS is an absolute case in point, with crap players at Cardiff his win ratio was 30%, now by being in the right place at the right time is he all of a sudden a great manager? NO, he’s just got very very good players. Its far from nonsense. Of course its about players, but the manager should have a say so, who he's got....and then as importantly groom them in to what he wants and how he wants them to perform.....He has now had 3 windows, with, to my understanding no financial restraints fom the owners, only on FFP. He should be telling Suso what he wants. If OGS didn't want Bruno, he would have said so....He has also manged to get a tune out of Pogba....He also presides over the development of Greenwood. so why doesn't Dean get a job in the top half of the table or be even linked with one, when they become available. We have had previous managers without the best players......they have just gone out and got them.....thats part of their job. If you are saying Dean has no input to that, then he is on a hiding to nothing and took the job on emotion alone. PS So is Neil Warnock better than OGS? he had a 41% win ratio at Cardiff.....the answer is, at Cardiff he was. Edited July 10, 2020 by TRO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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