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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62283196

Ukraine war: Kyiv's forces moving towards occupied Kherson - Zelensky

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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says his forces are advancing "step by step" into the occupied southern region of Kherson.

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The Ukrainian advance meant that Russian supply lines west of the river were "increasingly at risk", according to their assessment.

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UK officials have previously described the Antonivskyi Bridge as a "key vulnerability" for Russian forces and on Saturday said if "crossings were denied, and Russian forces in occupied Kherson cut off, it would be a significant military and political setback for Russia".

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"Every bridge is a weak point for logistics and our armed forces are skilfully destroying the enemy system," Serhiy Khlan, an adviser to Kherson's governor, wrote on Facebook. "This is not yet the liberation of Kherson, but a serious preparatory step in that direction."

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Meanwhile, a senior defence adviser to Mr Zelensky claimed that around 1,000 Russian troops in the region have been encircled by Ukrainian forces.

Oleksiy Arestovych said the Russians had been caught in a "tactical encirclement" near the village of Vysokopillya in Kherson oblast. The BBC has not independently verified this claim.

 

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There was a story yesterday about the Russian foreign minister saying that the west were prolonging the war. Does this suggest that Russia are getting to the point where they want to keep what they’ve claimed and try to do a peace deal?

Obviously you can’t trust them for a nano second but I thought it was an interesting comment.

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Earlier, Mr Lavrov held talks with his Egyptian counterpart, Sameh Shoukry.

Egypt has significant ties with Russia, which supplies wheat, weapons and - until the invasion of Ukraine began - large numbers of tourists. 

After his talks with Mr Shoukry, Mr Lavrov told a joint news conference that the West was prolonging the conflict even though it understood "what and whose end it will be".

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Edited by Genie
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3 minutes ago, Genie said:

There was a story yesterday about the Russian foreign minister saying that the west were prolonging the war. Does this suggest that Russia are getting to the point where they want to keep what they’ve claimed and try to do a peace deal?

Obviously you can’t trust them for a nano second but I thought it was an interesting comment.

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I thought the same about the grain deal , maybe some Russians  want it to stop now and concilidate their gains but "Ivan trigger finger" decided to launch a missile attack. 

Maybe Russian fear that the Ukrainians been trained with more supplies of modern equipment will mean them losing ground.

Storing military equipment by the nuclear plant ensures it won't get destroyed. 

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3 minutes ago, tinker said:

I thought the same about the grain deal , maybe some Russians  want it to stop now and concilidate their gains but "Ivan trigger finger" decided to launch a missile attack. 

Maybe Russian fear that the Ukrainians been trained with more supplies of modern equipment will mean them losing ground.

Storing military equipment by the nuclear plant ensures it won't get destroyed. 

Yes, it seems like he’s on a tour of Africa to gain their support with the message “if the war ended tomorrow you’d get all the grain you need but the West insist on keeping fighting so it’s their fault not ours”.

It may explain why the Russians sabotaged their recently signed deal. They don’t want things to improve in Africa just yet, they want Africa to pressure the West to end the war and let Russia keep what they stole.

Edited by Genie
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If a cease fire is what Russia wants they better show some actual good will first, because as it stands Ukraine are liberating village after village North of Kherson. Analysts think that the big push will come mid-August once NASAMs are in place, HIMARS have severely weakened Russia's ammo supply lines and the Czech warplanes have all arrived. 

It's going to be the first time Russia feels a proper loss since Afghanistan, and it could quickly turn into a rout if Ukraine can push across the Dnipr around Kherson.

Putin could risk his navy by using ships for fire support, or he could risk his bad airforce to bomb the advance, but both of these forces won't really do much against NSM, NASAM and Harpoons. It'll be a good test of the best AA system in the world (NASAM) for it to work against SU-35's but frankly I don't think the jets will even make an appearance that far West.

The question remains how far Ukraine can take it before Putin goes full on batshit crazy, is that the Kerch bridge? Is it reclaiming all their lost land? The question is also whether Georgia, the free Chechen brigades and other movements will come into play if Russia starts losing badly in Ukraine. It probably won't take much to overthrow Kadyrov or Tokayev.

Edited by magnkarl
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19 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Pre-February borders automatically invokes a cease fire. 

I'm not sure if that'll do for Ukraine tbh. And I'm not sure if any scenario will make it so.

a) Russia keeps grinding and keeps the standstill in place.

b) Ukraine gains momentum with the weapons now streaming in and rolls over Kherson, Kherson will be the Saratoga of Ukraine and the West will go all in on supporting Ukraine like France with the Americans. I don't think a Ukranian army with weapons advantage will stop at LPR or DPR borders, they'll want everything back or else Putin will keep stoking the fires in these areas.

c) Russia withdraws completely and says it's 'good will'.

Frankly I don't see how this new Ukrainian army would have a problem defeating the rag tag band of cannon fodder in the two people's republics without Russians supporting the republics, and I'm not sure if Russia would be able to support them if they lose everything up to their borders. A proper coordinated counter offensive in Kherson which threatens Crimea will probably scare the living daylight out of the Kremlin. I wonder what @Awol thinks will happen..

Edited by magnkarl
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It's great to see that Ukraine has released a list of who they consider to be the worst propagandists for Putin in EU\The West, sad to see that Galloway and Farage aren't on there.

https://cpd.gov.ua/reports/спікери-які-просувають-співзвучні-ро/

By the looks of it they've not gotten to U.K yet. The list is a comprehensive guide to the most despicable far right people in America, France, Germany and Denmark though. There's a theme here.

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21 minutes ago, Genie said:

I reckon here we’d see a very strong correlation between backing brexit and being unvaccinated. 

I thought Brexit was all flag waving and this country is the best type of stuff ? 
Which goes against not getting a vaccine ? (If said country is the best then why not have the vaccine that they are giving you unless you don't trust the country but Brexit etc ? )

Not a pop at you but do you see what I mean ? You are probably correct but I don't understand their logic.

 

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18 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

I thought Brexit was all flag waving and this country is the best type of stuff ? 
Which goes against not getting a vaccine ? (If said country is the best then why not have the vaccine that they are giving you unless you don't trust the country but Brexit etc ? )

Not a pop at you but do you see what I mean ? You are probably correct but I don't understand their logic.

 

In my experience brexiteers and anti-vaxxers are the same group, generally united by having lower IQ’s and believing any old conspiracy the internet throws up.

 

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28 minutes ago, Genie said:

In my experience brexiteers and anti-vaxxers are the same group, generally united by having lower IQ’s and believing any old conspiracy the internet throws up.

 

And wanting to feel smart. 

I really think this is a big part of it with people like this and the Qanon lunatics in America. 

It's their chance to feel like the smart guy in the room. They've probably always been dismissed or ignored and now they're in these social media echo chambers, convincing each other that they know more than these sheep that have always mocked them or looked past them. 

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32 minutes ago, bickster said:

Whoever drew that chart is clearly very bad at maths

It clearly wasn’t a “you can pick only one from this list” question. And the German and English wording doesn’t place any limitations or qualifiers, e.g. “who in your opinion is most responsible for the war..”

The thing that stands out for me is the (probable) likely main source of information used by the two groups of people. Facebook and other social medi will be higher for the grey ones and a wider range, including msm for the red, I reckon.

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