Genie Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 Any chance Ukraine will agree to a ceasefire to give up the land at this moment they’ve “lost”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mozzavfc Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, ender4 said: So with Russia having taken Luhansk, they must be pretty close to fully taking that whole region? Is the Ukranian defence slowly being eroded to the point that they can't defend or counter-attack anymore? UA are still counter attacking, just in different regions. Recently have recaptured snake island and pushing back around Kharkov. They do seem more inclined to retreat from cities earlier to protect the city and avoid encirclement like what happened in Mariupol, where Russian were happy to just smash the city to bits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, ender4 said: So with Russia having taken Luhansk, they must be pretty close to fully taking that whole region? Is the Ukranian defence slowly being eroded to the point that they can't defend or counter-attack anymore? No and No. If you read the article that Bickster has posted above it gives a comprehensive summary of the frontlines from a Russian perspective. Even they understand Ukrainian forces are tactically withdrawing to reinforced defensive lines after exhausting Russian forces. Russians are also noticing large build up of Ukrainian troops and artillery. They're currently awaiting the counter offences and realise without general mobilisation they're long term f*****! If I'm wrong anyone, please correct me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 Live map of the conflict for anyone interested. DeepStateMAP | Day 131 | Map of the war in Ukraine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 21 minutes ago, Genie said: Any chance Ukraine will agree to a ceasefire to give up the land at this moment they’ve “lost”? It would be an option - but Putin has already breach several treaty's - just couldn't see it working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 19 hours ago, avfc1982am said: No and No. If you read the article that Bickster has posted above it gives a comprehensive summary of the frontlines from a Russian perspective. Even they understand Ukrainian forces are tactically withdrawing to reinforced defensive lines after exhausting Russian forces. Russians are also noticing large build up of Ukrainian troops and artillery. They're currently awaiting the counter offences and realise without general mobilisation they're long term f*****! If I'm wrong anyone, please correct me. In my opinion this is fairly spot on. Around end July-August time is when some of the commentators expect Ukraine to start their local larger counter offensives. They expect that Ukraine is waiting for all of the most modern systems to be in place, Iris, NASAM, rocket launchers from Germany, UK, US, Norway and quite likely Sweden will be in place in some weeks. Critical mass for rocket launchers range from around 30-50 before essentially covering the whole front line for Ukraine in the East. HIMARS are already inflicting preliminary strikes on ammo depots, fuel facilities and bases 40+kms behind the front lines so something is definitely changing. Russia is also preparing to defend the Kerch bridge which is a sign that they probably expect to get attacked deep within their illegally seized territory. The build up of MiG's from Eastern NATO members also seems to have reached a point where Ukraine actually dares to deploy their air fleet over the front lines, hopefully it's a sign that Russia's presence is severely weakened. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 23 hours ago, LondonLax said: I didn’t hear that from that recording. Is there more? First few minutes, Putin says 'You and Berlin told me Zelensky would accept terms', which then Macron shuts down. If it's true or not is debatable, but Putin must have gotten that impression from somewhere. Other than that it was a waste of a phone call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 17 minutes ago, magnkarl said: First few minutes, Putin says 'You and Berlin told me Zelensky would accept terms', which then Macron shuts down. If it's true or not is debatable, but Putin must have gotten that impression from somewhere. Other than that it was a waste of a phone call. I got the impression Putin was trying to imply that there was an agreement but when Macron dismissed and his advisers in the video were also bemused about this, he(Putin) didn't argue the point. If there was any agreement then I think this would have came out in the conversation as a more contentious issue. Putin was just playing Macron who in turn came across as quite pissed off at his telephone charade. I'm quite pleased that Macron dismisses the notion that the DPR have any authority or sway over Ukrainian Law. I don't like Macron very much but felt he handled the conversation well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 hour ago, magnkarl said: First few minutes, Putin says 'You and Berlin told me Zelensky would accept terms', which then Macron shuts down. If it's true or not is debatable, but Putin must have gotten that impression from somewhere. Other than that it was a waste of a phone call. That was in context of the Minsk II agreement. The one that Germany and France brokered in 2015. Putin goes off on a tangent with it talking about the separatists dictating the terms and Macron slaps him down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PussEKatt Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Putin is either a ruthless dictator,like Hitler and Stalin etc or a couple of sandwiches short of a picnic.Take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, PussEKatt said: Putin is either a ruthless dictator,like Hitler and Stalin etc or a couple of sandwiches short of a picnic.Take your pick. He's both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Certainly changed his tune regarding Finland & Sweden. Swear he was threatening them if they joined but now its fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 5, 2022 Moderator Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 minute ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said: Certainly changed his tune regarding Finland & Sweden. Swear he was threatening them if they joined but now its fine Thats nice of him to give his permission 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PussEKatt Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 19 hours ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said: Certainly changed his tune regarding Finland & Sweden. Swear he was threatening them if they joined but now its fine Oh,thats good.So,he has given them the OK to join then. The war is all Ukraines fault for trying to join NATO without getting Puttins ok first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Russia originally made veiled threats against Finland and Sweden if they even applied to NATO. That changed to veiled threats if they housed NATO bases. Now they don't care unless they house nukes. Russia isn't stupid. It knows that it's military has taken a beating and wouldn't stand a chance against the USA, let alone NATO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 6, 2022 Moderator Share Posted July 6, 2022 2 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: Russia originally made veiled threats against Finland and Sweden if they even applied to NATO. That changed to veiled threats if they housed NATO bases. Now they don't care unless they house nukes. Russia isn't stupid. It knows that it's military has taken a beating and wouldn't stand a chance against the USA, let alone NATO. There's another explanation, in my mind. The only way out for Russia, of the mess of their own making, without being defeated is to get a ceasefire and negotiation on keeping what they've grabbed. part of that has to to look like they're not going to do it again. They previously/demanded that their neighbour, Ukraine, not ever join NATO or else.... Now, any similar threat lingering over their neighbours Finland and Sweden is an impediment to Russia's (in my eyes) plan to negotiate and end to the war with them keeping the regions they've stolen. I don't think the plan will work, but that's my take on why they've changed their tune. Also, you're right, they don’t have capability to fight on more fronts or to fight NATO/NATO allies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, blandy said: Also, you're right, they have capability to fight on more fronts or to fight NATO/NATO allies. I guess you missed something out of that sentence? I don't think they can fight on more fronts. Their airforce is tiny compared to NATO. If Russia attacked they would need to defend the airspace in the north from Canada and USA, in the east from USA, in the west from Europe and in the south from Ukraine, Turkey and USA. Even the most patriotic Russian General knows that air superiority leads to cut supply lines and that leads to defeat. Air supremacy leads to annihilation of any troops on NATO territory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 6, 2022 Moderator Share Posted July 6, 2022 29 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: you missed something out of that sentence? I don't think they can fight on more fronts. I did. Edited to correct. Ta 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Interesting that in his state address yesterday he(Putin) mentioned troops taking a break, giving them chance to rest and resupply etc. I think Russia aren't far from seriously exhausting themselves as far as personnel go. Reports yesterday that they had been also been trying to offer 6 month contracts to inmates in Russian Prisons on the basis that if they survive 6 months then they would be set free. They are also announcing a bill today that the military get first refusal on all goods needed for the war, forced overtime for businesses linked with the defence sector.... They're really not having the best time trying to stay in this, whilst pretending everything is normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 15 minutes ago, avfc1982am said: They are also announcing a bill today that the military get first refusal on all goods needed for the war, It's slightly worse than even that. It obligates all businesses operating in Russia to sell to the army even if they don't want to. That spells the end of western companies operating in Russia. NIKE isn't going to return if it suddenly found itself the official supplier to the Russian army. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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