Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[sidcow]

I don't think the Americans would be too keen either as he kept reducing our defence spending as a % of GDP.  They've been on at us for years about upping it.

Then of course there was the whole "No more tank wars in Europe" thing

Edited July 27, 2022 by sidcow

[blandy]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

By which idiot?

Someone called Dadine Norris? Possibly using a pseudonym 

[sne]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

By which idiot?

 Mark Francois and David Jones according to Swedish papers.

[Genie]

No organisation that respects its reputation will go near Boris Johnson.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Genie

[bickster]

15 minutes ago, sne said:

 Mark Francois and David Jones according to Swedish papers.

So a pair of absolute no marks who carry about as much global political clout as an earwig

[Anthony]

18 minutes ago, sne said:

 Mark Francois and David Jones according to Swedish papers.

The latter should have kept it in his locker.

I am, unfortunately, here all week.

[sne]

1 minute ago, Anthony said:

The latter should have kept it in his locker.

I am, unfortunately, here all week.

Kraken jokes are we?

[sidcow]

45 minutes ago, sne said:

Kraken jokes are we?

There are probably more lurking in the deep somewhere 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

7 hours ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Questions and few thoughts about Planes:  Russia has 500 ? Boeing and Airbus planes,  Russia has them all on lease as I understand it.

Part of the lease is that they all get repaired in a specific way with specific parts and there is some sort of sign off procedure or the repair is not valid ? (So violation of the lease ?)

Russia has had no spare parts since Feb,  how often do planes need repairs ? At some point they can't fly surely ?

I wonder if their Airline / Travel within Russia might start to decrease over time + the wages in Russia went down 7% and inflation is at 12% so who can afford to fly and where can they fly ?

Russia changed the law and effectively stole them.  But they cannot land them outside of Russia because they are likely to be seized.  They will keep them for domestic flights and canabilise them for spare parts.  Russia can import the parts they need via third party countries.  But they can't produce the official paperwork needed to assure safety.  So they will continue to use them for domestic flights and military use.  

[blandy]

35 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Russia can import the parts they need via third party countries

I mean, yeah, maybe they can, but even that is not simple. The US in particular is really hot on export control of stuff that is either dual use (EAR) or military (ITAR). If they put Being parts on the register, it'll be really hard for Russia to get hold of them legitimately. I'm not sure of the latest EU export control laws but they won't be massively different to the US's.

So that may leave Russia with a bit of a problem. 500 odd aircraft will get through a lot of lifed items (stuff that has to be replaced every so many flying hours), consumables (like tyres) and brake pads etc., and then when it comes to engine parts and what have you they could really struggle long term.

There can't be that many Russia friendly nations with fleets of Boeings and Airbuses willing to incur the wrath of the US and/or EU for re-routing aircraft parts.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

24 minutes ago, blandy said:

I mean, yeah, maybe they can, but even that is not simple. The US in particular is really hot on export control of stuff that is either dual use (EAR) or military (ITAR). If they put Being parts on the register, it'll be really hard for Russia to get hold of them legitimately. I'm not sure of the latest EU export control laws but they won't be massively different to the US's.

So that may leave Russia with a bit of a problem. 500 odd aircraft will get through a lot of lifed items (stuff that has to be replaced every so many flying hours), consumables (like tyres) and brake pads etc., and then when it comes to engine parts and what have you they could really struggle long term.

There can't be that many Russia friendly nations with fleets of Boeings and Airbuses willing to incur the wrath of the US and/or EU for re-routing aircraft parts.

Yes but no.  They will get the parts but the sellers will be wanting top prices. 
 

Sanction work and are very simple.  They reduce the people ruSSia can buy from and reduce the people they can sell to.  That increases the price of imports whilst decreasing the price of exports. On top of that ruSSia is in an arms race with the world’s richest military alliance.  
 

It’s exactly what killed the USSR.  

[blandy]

17 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Sanctions work and are very simple.  They reduce the people ruSSia can buy from and reduce the people they can sell to.  That increases the price of imports whilst decreasing the price of exports.

It hasn't exactly decreased the price of Gas, has it? 

The thing I'm thinking of is if say Aeroflot needs a new engine for an A320 or a Boeing 777 or whatever - they're not going to get one from Rolls Royce, or from Pratt & Witney because sanctions. So how does a RR engine for an Airbus get bought? From who? I believe that engines don't just get thrown away - so if say Iran Air or whoever sells an engine of theirs to Russia, what do they give back to RR - an engine with a serial number from an Aeroflot aircraft - all the engines are monitored by serial number for hours and so on, as I understand it, as part of their service history and knowing when to replace various parts (lifed items) in them.

I guess with stuff like tyres and brake pads and other consumables, there's plenty of scope for middlemen and agents and stuff to do a bit of shady trading, but complex kit will surely be harder?

[Mandy Lifeboats]

35 minutes ago, blandy said:

It hasn't exactly decreased the price of Gas, has it? 

The thing I'm thinking of is if say Aeroflot needs a new engine for an A320 or a Boeing 777 or whatever - they're not going to get one from Rolls Royce, or from Pratt & Witney because sanctions. So how does a RR engine for an Airbus get bought? From who? I believe that engines don't just get thrown away - so if say Iran Air or whoever sells an engine of theirs to Russia, what do they give back to RR - an engine with a serial number from an Aeroflot aircraft - all the engines are monitored by serial number for hours and so on, as I understand it, as part of their service history and knowing when to replace various parts (lifed items) in them.

I guess with stuff like tyres and brake pads and other consumables, there's plenty of scope for middlemen and agents and stuff to do a bit of shady trading, but complex kit will surely be harder?

It hasn't decreased the price of gas......yet.  But once the EU stops buying Russia is in trouble.  It has 2 large gas fields. Europe is supplied from the western one.  To ship that gas elsewhere will require massive investment.  That investment is risky and there limited number of investors will be demanding high returns.   There are limited countries willing to have pipelines passing through their land to ship gas further afield.  

Russia will get the parts they need for domestic use. Cloned parts, parts that come from scrapped planes, parts that were stolen in transit etc.  None of it will be legitimate or safe.  But those things aren't enforceable within Russia.  

As you say....complex kit will be harder and therefore incredibly expensive.  

But the Iranian Airforce still operates a number of F14 Tomcats purchased by the Shah in the 1970s!!!!!!

Edited July 27, 2022 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added details

[blandy]

14 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

the Iranian Airforce still operates a number of F14 Tomcats purchased by the Shah in the 1970s!!!!!!

Wow! I didn’t know that. But yeah if that’s possible, then I guess Russia has a way to keep most of their airliners going.

[sidcow]

You do wonder when large sections of Russian society and probably more importantly large sections of Russian military just have enough of their shit sandwich. 

Once the troops stop shooting the protesting civilians and turn their guns around it won't matter how many Generals and top security service people Putin has in his back pocket. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

13 minutes ago, blandy said:

Wow! I didn’t know that. But yeah if that’s possible, then I guess Russia has a way to keep most of their airliners going.

Iran ordered 80 x F14 in 1972.  79 were delivered.  They came with a stock of parts.  The Shah of Iran is said to have handed the US a blank cheque to secure them. 

They played a major part in the Iran/Iraq war.  Around 20 are still operating.  But they are a Frankenstein mixture of parts.  

[blandy]

11 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

they are a Frankenstein mixture of parts

I bet they are!

Ruusian airlines have never had a particularly good safety record, and I don’t suppose Frankenstein planes will help that.

[sidcow]

There is lots of talk in the press now about the Ukrainian counter offensive and a bid to retake Kherson.  Lots of talk about how Western Long Range weapons are making a big difference and that there are more on the way too. 

Hopefully Putin just tries to save face from now on and beats some sort of retreat. 

[ender4]

Missiles being fired from Belarus into Ukraine.   Is this new or they've been doing this already?

Does this mean Belarus is now at war with Ukraine as well?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/28/russian-forces-fire-barrage-missiles-northern-ukraine-from-belarus

Quote

A barrage of 25 missiles has been fired by Russian forces at northern regions of Ukraine from neighbouring Belarus as the Ukrainian southern offensive appears to be gathering pace.

The early morning wave of missile strikes launched from the territory of Russia’s key ally hit targets in the Chernihiv region, including an apartment block, as well as locations outside Kyiv and around the city of Zhytomyr, according to Ukrainian officials and Belarusian opposition figures.

The Chernihiv regional governor, Viacheslav Chaus, said nine missiles had struck close to the village of Honcharivska with some falling in the forest nearby.

Activists who track Russian military moves in Belarus said the missile launches came from Ziabrauka airfield near Gomel, prompting calls for increased sanctions against Belarus.

The Belarusian opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, condemned the latest escalation from Belarus.

“Horrified to see how Russia continues to use Belarus to attack Ukraine,” she tweeted. “At least 25 missiles were launched from Belarus targeting Kyiv, Chernihiv & other cities this morning. Lukashenka can’t fool anyone. He is guilty of crimes against Belarusians & Ukrainians & must be held accountable.”

 

[magnkarl]

2 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Missiles being fired from Belarus into Ukraine.   Is this new or they've been doing this already?

Does this mean Belarus is now at war with Ukraine as well?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/28/russian-forces-fire-barrage-missiles-northern-ukraine-from-belarus

 

This has gone on since day one. Belarus was used as a launch pad for the army group that was supposed to take Kyiv. Countless missiles are fired out of Belarus.

In reality Belarus has an army the size of Ukraine’s police force. They’d be removed by Ukraine in short order. Not that anyone in the Belarusian army will follow an attack order anyway.