Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Mandy Lifeboats]

5 hours ago, bickster said:

They haven’t been offered one.

Not once has Russia seemed to act in good faith

Agreed.  
I was setting out Ukraine’s best option at the moment rather than what’s on offer.  

[Arj Guy]

13 hours ago, sidcow said:

This is exactly it. You can negotiate giving him X territory to stay away, but he'll be back again because he's then got tried and tested strategy.  Before you know it the previously loyal segment of Ukraine adjacent to the new border will suddenly have rebel "Ukrainians" declaring they want independence from the Nazi regime and Russia will be rushing in to Liberate this new territory. Rinse and repeat, Rinse and repeat. 

That's what people arguing for settlement just don't get. You can't settle with Russia, it just encourages them and proves it works for them. 

It may be well intended but it’s this kind of attitude which is leading to the annihilation of the Ukrainian army and destruction of Ukraine.

What is your alternative to negotiation? World war 3? Fight to the last Ukrainian?

 It’s becoming increasingly obvious that Ukraine can’t stop Russia taking territory and can’t take back lost territory. And it’s also becoming obvious that the west doesn’t have the capability to give Ukraine the enormous amount of weapons and training needed to do so.
 

Ukraine are going to have to concede territory to Russia. There’s just no way around it. They can start negotiating now or later when they’ve lost even more land and men. 

[sne]

Will this be on any consequence to anything?

Quote

Russia Is Hours Away From Its First Foreign Default in a Century

• Sanctions have blocked payments to holders of Russian debt
• Russia says it’s not a default because it has enough funds

After months of teetering on the edge of default, Russia is now just hours away from a dramatic moment in the financial battle that the US and others have waged against the Kremlin over its invasion of Ukraine.

A grace period on about $100 million of missed bond payments -- blocked because of wide-ranging sanctions -- ends on Sunday night. There won’t be an official declaration, and Russia is already disputing the designation, but if investors don’t have their money by the deadline, there will be an “event of default” on Monday morning, according to the bond documents.

It’s largely a symbolic development for now, given that Russia is already an economic, financial and political outcast across most of the world. But it showcases how the US, Europe and others have tightened the screws since the invasion started in February to make it all-but impossible for Russia to conduct what would otherwise be normal financial business.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-26/russia-is-hours-away-from-its-first-foreign-default-in-a-century

[ender4]

43 minutes ago, sne said:

Will this be on any consequence to anything?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-26/russia-is-hours-away-from-its-first-foreign-default-in-a-century

Not really, not while Russia are still getting paid $3 Billion a week for Oil and Gas supplies to EU countries.

[ender4]

Russia started firing missiles into Kyiv again. Seems they have lots of those missiles and are back on the offensive in other parts of Ukraine.

[chrisp65]

Russia have been running out of missiles for over 4 months. Can’t be long now…

 

War is an incredibly almost impossibly difficult subject. It’s possibly the one thing that I’d never want to be a high level politician and have to deal with. To decide Ukraine are on their own, that’s allowing a country to take land and kill people and ruin families. Raping and murdering as they steal land and capital. If we let that happen, it doesn’t stop. They take a bit more Ukraine, they take a bit more Moldova, they try to take back Lithuania. All the time thieving, raping, murdering.

So we make a stand. That means people my age, telling people in their teens to fight and die. Impossible.

But the appeasement of letting Russia have a bit more of Ukraine will not work. If they get to keep what they’ve taken then Odessa will be next in 4 years time. Then somewhere else. Then somewhere else.

It does, horribly, get to a point a line on the map where its put up or shut up. 

[bickster]

26 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Russia started firing missiles into Kyiv again. Seems they have lots of those missiles and are back on the offensive in other parts of Ukraine.

Today and yesterdays missile attacks are a message to the G7 Leaders meeting today, not the start of another offensive. There is no massing of troops on the Northern borders

 

[PussEKatt]

This is very true.People like Hitler,Stalin,Putin are never satisfied,they always want more.

[Davkaus]

9 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

 

So we make a stand. That means people my age, telling people in their teens to fight and die. Impossible.

But the appeasement of letting Russia have a bit more of Ukraine will not work. If they get to keep what they’ve taken then Odessa will be next in 4 years time. Then somewhere else. Then somewhere else.

It does, horribly, get to a point a line on the map where its put up or shut up. 

And this is before you add in the nuclear dimension.

In a nuke free world, it's got to the point even without a formal defence agreement, I think the west needs to take a stand and give Russia a bloody nose. But it's not that simple. We can take a stand, and call Vlad's bluff, and hope he doesn't risk a nuclear holocaust, or we can do the more pragmatic thing of not engaging as long as he doesn't touch NATO members, making it clear he can invade other nations with impunity.

No right answer in this mess, is there.

 

[bannedfromHandV]

The only real hope at this stage is that the war continues long enough to force an overwhelming change of public opinion domestically within Russia leading to the expulsion of Putin and a wide scale reform of the entire country and government.

Ideally this would happen before the total and utter decimation of Ukraine. 

Beyond that, I see no good way in which this can end, fight and risk losing everything, don’t fight and risk losing everything.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

3 hours ago, sne said:

Will this be on any consequence to anything?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-26/russia-is-hours-away-from-its-first-foreign-default-in-a-century

Yes and no. 

Short Term - Russia presently has more than enough wealth to pay this money.  But they are paying in rubles which no western financial institution will accept.  In the short term the bond holders are the losers. 
 

Medium Term - Russia is demanding payments in rubles and paying in rubles.  This is to artificially stabilise the ruble. But the people willing to trade in rubles are few and getting less all the time.  In the medium term Russia sustains it’s currency.  

Long Term - Would you invest in Putin’s Russia?  Your business could have all of its Russian assets seized.  Would you invest in Russia knowing you are going to be paid in a currency that no-one trades in. Russia is doomed to a slow lingering economic death.  
 

Would someone mind adding a GIF of Nelson from the Simpsons saying HA HA please. 
 

[tonyh29]

1 hour ago, Davkaus said:

And this is before you add in the nuclear dimension.

In a nuke free world, it's got to the point even without a formal defence agreement, I think the west needs to take a stand and give Russia a bloody nose. But it's not that simple. We can take a stand, and call Vlad's bluff, and hope he doesn't risk a nuclear holocaust, or we can do the more pragmatic thing of not engaging as long as he doesn't touch NATO members, making it clear he can invade other nations with impunity.

No right answer in this mess, is there.

 

I think you have to take the view that the Nukes do the job they are intended to do and act as a deterrent from anyone using them

I don’t really subscribe to the view that Putin is this deranged mad man , every move he’s made has been calculated cause he knows the west response will be disjointed weak and pathetic 

Ukraine needs more than  wining the Eurovision Song Contest from the West , if the price of delivery is some missiles  aimed at  London , Paris or Berlin then it’s a price that should be paid , just as it was in 1939

[avfc1982am]

2 hours ago, Arj Guy said:

It may be well intended but it’s this kind of attitude which is leading to the annihilation of the Ukrainian army and destruction of Ukraine.

What is your alternative to negotiation? World war 3? Fight to the last Ukrainian?

 It’s becoming increasingly obvious that Ukraine can’t stop Russia taking territory and can’t take back lost territory. And it’s also becoming obvious that the west doesn’t have the capability to give Ukraine the enormous amount of weapons and training needed to do so.
 

Ukraine are going to have to concede territory to Russia. There’s just no way around it. They can start negotiating now or later when they’ve lost even more land and men. 

Russia aren't negotiating and haven't been for weeks. The idea that Ukraine can in any case go cap in hand to Russia and beg them to back off without conceding not just more land but the futures of all their citizens is short sighted. Firstly Ukraine years ago decided as a Country they did not want to be influenced by Russia. In the last 8 years they have not only been at War in the Donbas but had Crimea annexed and now had Cities destroyed and thousands of Ukrainians citizens killed. 

Whether anyone likes it or not, the only thing that will stop Russian aggression towards Ukraine will be for the Ukrainian Government as it stands to bow to Putin, against the wishes of the population. To end the idea of being a democratic Country aligned with the Western democracy(however loosely). Instead become slaves to a regime that has no interest in what the population want. Or they can continue to stand up for themselves and their hopes for a more independent Ukraine and defend against Russian aggression for as long as it takes.

No doubt Russia are taking territory and Ukrainians are dying, just as Russians are, but who are you to expect a Country that has been in conflict for 8 years to give in. Your also missing key points in all this. Putin wanted total control and influence over Ukraine, he now controls only 20%. The only thing that is stable to a degree is Crimea because it's cut of from the mainland. The Donbas isn't and is still along way from being lost and for all Russia's gains, they have also decimated what they expect to hold and have left a mess in the hands of the DPR. Russia are far from defeating Ukraine on any front and therefore Ukraine don't need to concede anything whilst they can still defend themselves. 

Here's the other point in all this which nobody has mentioned or seems to discuss. How long would Zelenskky's Government last if they conceded to Russia and pulled out the Donbas, begged Russia to a cease fire and gave up the land that rightfully is theirs, Dismantle the army etc? After everything that has no happened, my guess is not very long. Not only that but your also opening up to the possibility of further civil unrest across the Country far worse than it already is. 

It's okay everyone having this idea that Ukraine should just surrender, concede or bow down to Russia and ultimately give in. Especially when your family haven't been murdered, raped, home destroyed, life in ruins. I think most people want this to come to an end as quickly as possible but the idea that Ukraine can just end this by giving in is stupid. It's not really an option. 

 

 

[magnkarl]

4 hours ago, Arj Guy said:

It may be well intended but it’s this kind of attitude which is leading to the annihilation of the Ukrainian army and destruction of Ukraine.

What is your alternative to negotiation? World war 3? Fight to the last Ukrainian?

 It’s becoming increasingly obvious that Ukraine can’t stop Russia taking territory and can’t take back lost territory. And it’s also becoming obvious that the west doesn’t have the capability to give Ukraine the enormous amount of weapons and training needed to do so.
 

Ukraine are going to have to concede territory to Russia. There’s just no way around it. They can start negotiating now or later when they’ve lost even more land and men. 

I’m not sure if you realise this, but if Ukraine lays down their arms they’ll be killed, removed and buried in mass graves like in Bucha, Irpin and Mariupol. I’m not even sure why you won’t understand that.

Why didn’t USSR just give up when Nazi Germany was at their capital? There’s no negotiating with war criminals. How did your way work out for Neville Chamberlain?

Edited June 26, 2022 by magnkarl

[NurembergVillan]

26 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Yes and no. 

Short Term - Russia presently has more than enough wealth to pay this money.  But they are paying in rubles which no western financial institution will accept.  In the short term the bond holders are the losers. 
 

Medium Term - Russia is demanding payments in rubles and paying in rubles.  This is to artificially stabilise the ruble. But the people willing to trade in rubles are few and getting less all the time.  In the medium term Russia sustains it’s currency.  

Long Term - Would you invest in Putin’s Russia?  Your business could have all of its Russian assets seized.  Would you invest in Russia knowing you are going to be paid in a currency that no-one trades in. Russia is doomed to a slow lingering economic death.  
 

Would someone mind adding a GIF of Nelson from the Simpsons saying HA HA please. 
 

FTFY

[Mandy Lifeboats]

I am an old git. Sometimes that’s useful because I remember things from recent history that are relevant to today.  Sometimes it’s not useful because I can’t remember where I left my car keys.  
 

But let me tell you about living through the Cold War with the USSR.  The west was waging an economic war with Russia.  The West would not buy Russian goods.  Nor would any western financial institution trade in the ruble or any other Warsaw Pact currency.  This crippled the Warsaw Pact.  If they wanted to buy products from abroad the suppliers would not accept rubles.  The USSR desperately needed dollars and they had to pay through the nose to get them.  
At one point I remember the USSR paying for something with an old aircraft carrier.  They literally had to give someone payment in tonnes of floating scrap.  
This left the USSR in an arms race against vastly wealthier countries who could source goods that were beyond the USSR’s reach..  After decades of isolation their economy was at third world levels.  Their best people defected to the west for a better life.  
 

History is repeating itself. Russia has a tiny economy.  It’s not as strong as the USSR.  The west is stronger. Many of the old Warsaw Pact are now in  NATO. 
 

The sanctions on Russia are brutal.  

Edited June 26, 2022 by Mandy Lifeboats
Spelling mishsteaks

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Just in case anyone thinks I've gone senile, here's a link to when the USSR made Pepsi one of the largest navies in the world.  They paid for Pepsi with 20 scrap ships because their currency was worthless.  

Quote

Just before the fall of the Soviet Union, the communist state was so desperate for Pepsi that they traded the American beverage company some 20 warships for a shipment of their sugary elixir; making the Pepsi Navy the sixth-largest in the world at the time.

https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/pepsi-navy-when-the-soviets-traded-warships-for-soft-drinks/

[magnkarl]

21 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

Well usually when this sort of thing happens we are informed that this is Ukraine being very clever tactically and exchanging land for Russian bodies as Russia is perilously close to running out of soldiers and that Ukraine are days away from the definitive counter strike with their newly trained army of 300,000 and all manner of state of the art weaponry.

 

I’m just wondering Chris, were you ever in the army? When I did my stint in the 70s, we had one year of basic training before we were allowed to do anything operationally. Now magnify that with being at war, working with new equipment, new tactics and missiles raining down on you. Did you believe that Ukraine’s new brigades would be available in 3 effective training months, when you consider that many of them are already rotating for the ‘standing’ army that have been fighting since the start of the war?

This sort of ridiculing of something so dire, without even understanding what goes on in military training irks me badly. At least try to understand what goes on in training a man to kill another before you call out this sort of thing.  

Not every country throws conscripts into the fray. At least not democratic ones aiming to deploy integrated warfare and not just lobbing shells at cities.

Edited June 26, 2022 by magnkarl

[chrisp65]

29 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I’m just wondering Chris, were you ever in the army? When I did my stint in the 70s, we had one year of basic training before we were allowed to do anything operationally. Now magnify that with being at war, working with new equipment, new tactics and missiles raining down on you. Did you believe that Ukraine’s new brigades would be available in 3 effective training months, when you consider that many of them are already rotating for the ‘standing’ army that have been fighting since the start of the war?

This sort of ridiculing of something so dire, without even understanding what goes on in military training irks me badly. At least try to understand what goes on in training a man to kill another before you call out this sort of thing.  

Not every country throws conscripts into the fray. At least not democratic ones aiming to deploy integrated warfare and not just lobbing shells at cities.

 

I don’t know if it counts, in the world of military top trumps, but I was in the Sea Cadets.

If you think I’m ridiculing something dire, like you thought recently I was being appeasy, that tells me everything I need to know about your misreading of basic information. I’m just criticising overly jolly posts of three letter acronyms for cool weapons that predict the imminent demise of Russia. I have the utmost respect for Ukrainians fighting for their families and their homes. Less so for those that enjoy a good war.

Russia grinds. It grinds and it grinds and it doesn’t keep count of the dead and its not interested in where next winter’s heating fuel is coming from.

If my posts have irked you, it’s been quite deliberate. 

 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Terrorists