Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Mandy Lifeboats]

3 hours ago, Genie said:

Are you suggesting we prioritise pushing Russia back quickly, or targeting Putin directly?

 

Option  1 

NATO could kick Russia back over the border in a couple weeks.  It risks WW3 and nuclear war. 
 

Option 2

NATO could arm Ukraine to kick Russia back over the border in 6 months.  It risks WW3 and nuclear war.

Option 3

NATO kills Putin.  Easy to do if you don’t mind collateral damage. Hard to do secretly. It risks WW3 and nuclear war.

Option 4

NATO could arm Ukraine to a level that they are constantly draining Russian resources and money without achieving a decisive victory. This fits with the West’s plan to ruin Russia with a long term economic war.  It will also increases the chance of a military revolt or overthrow of Putin. 
 

 Ukraine’s options also include:

Option 5

Fight to the death. 
 

Option 6

Allow a Russian occupation but fight a war of long term resistance. 

Option 7

Surrender unconditional and hope Russia forgive, forget and are really nice guys once you get to know them. 

 

Option 8

Agree a peace deal that gives up their land and imposes conditions on things like army size and NATO membership. This allows Russia to invade again whenever they want. 

In my opinion Option 4 is the safest for the West and the most harmful to Russia. It’s what is happening now.  Unfortunately it inflicts a high price on Ukraine.  But not as high of a price as any other option. 

 

 

[sidcow]

You would think there should be never ending convoys of lorries trawling in and out of safe parts of Ukraine. Maybe I'm having difficulty in envisaging just how much grain there is to be shifted. 

Edited June 18, 2022 by sidcow

[chrisp65]

4 hours ago, Genie said:

Are you suggesting we prioritise pushing Russia back quickly, or targeting Putin directly?

 

Push Russia back quickly, let Russia deal with Putin.

We are not very good at regime change.

[PussEKatt]

Give Ukraine long range artillery so that they can do some damage to Russian buildings/property etc.That way the Russians will know for sure that there IS a war on  and Russia will have to spend $$$ on repairing infastructure and see where that goes ?!

[Genie]

39 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Push Russia back quickly, let Russia deal with Putin.

We are not very good at regime change.

I’m not sure that would work.

We push them back, they regroup and come back stronger. In the meantime everyone is just waiting for the next invasion. 

If Putin is toppled then serious talks with Russia if they want to end the war with immediate effect.

[chrisp65]

3 minutes ago, Genie said:

I’m not sure that would work.

We push them back, they regroup and come back stronger. In the meantime everyone is just waiting for the next invasion. 

If Putin is toppled then serious talks with Russia if they want to end the war with immediate effect.

Yeah I’m not claiming to be very good at war tactics.

But they came back after they were allowed to take Crimea in 2014 so we need to do something different.

Take everything back, and then have a NATO line along the border so they know that if they go for a third attempt they’ve instantly got full, clear, undisputable war.

I’m massively against war, but once you’re in one, win it.

[sidcow]

47 minutes ago, Genie said:

I’m not sure that would work.

We push them back, they regroup and come back stronger. In the meantime everyone is just waiting for the next invasion. 

If Putin is toppled then serious talks with Russia if they want to end the war with immediate effect.

I'm not sure they have any capability to come back stronger without using nuclear weapons. They've gone all in on this. 

[chrisp65]

1 hour ago, sidcow said:

I'm not sure they have any capability to come back stronger without using nuclear weapons. They've gone all in on this. 

They still have elements of the command economy, they have huge natural resource and over 140 million people.

Of course they can come back, and come back stronger if they make that their goal. We have to make them realise that’s not what they want to do.

This is why I don’t understand this constant refrain over the last 4 months that gaining ground weakens them. It’s absolute bobbins.

People were telling us they were running out of artillery shells a month ago. Running out of fuel back in March, running out of soldiers back in April.

Remember when all the mums of the dead conscripts were going to rise up and cause regime change? All bobbins.

This war will be won if and when we get serious.

Our tactic right now is to wear them down and hope they get tired of being inconvenienced before we do. I mean, it’s like we have no access to experience, no access to history books and no access to Wikipedia. 

 

 

[Arj Guy]

The only way Russia doesn’t win is direct NATO intervention which would cause nuclear war in which case we all lose. The way it’s going Russia will continue to gain territory and Ukraine will be destroyed. Ukraine need to negotiate soon as the longer they wait the worse it will get for them.

Arakhamia the Ukrainian  main negotiator acknowledges how weak their position is  and hoping they can regain some territory before starting negotiations. So it looks like they will continue to send troops into the meat grinder and lose over 1000 men every day in a desperate attempt to improve their position for negotiations.

All this talk about Russia being completely driven out of Ukraine is just fantasy at this point. It may help the weapon manufacturers but it’s only harming Ukraine. Unfortunately most are too brainwashed and whipped into a frenzy to understand this.
 

 

 

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by Arj Guy

[chrisp65]

1 minute ago, Arj Guy said:

The only way Russia doesn’t win is direct NATO intervention which would cause nuclear war in which case we all lose. The way it’s going Russia will continue to gain territory and Ukraine will be destroyed. Ukrainian need to negotiate soon as the longer they wait the worse it will get for them.

Arakhamia the Ukrainian  main negotiator acknowledges how weak their position is  and hoping they can regain some territory before starting negotiations. So it looks like they will continue to send troops into the meat grinder and lose over 1000 men every day in a desperate attempt to improve their position for negotiations.

All this talk about Russia being completely driven out of Ukraine is just fantasy at this point. It may help the weapon manufacturers but it’s only harming Ukraine. Unfortunately most are too brainwashed and whipped into a frenzy to understand this.

 

Where in Europe is your line where ‘enough is enough’?

Would it be somewhere in Ukraine, or could you be persuaded it could be Moldova? Perhaps just the Suwalki Corridor as well? Or would it be somewhere in Finland and Lithuania?

[sidcow]

5 minutes ago, Arj Guy said:

The only way Russia doesn’t win is direct NATO intervention which would cause nuclear war in which case we all lose. The way it’s going Russia will continue to gain territory and Ukraine will be destroyed. Ukraine need to negotiate soon as the longer they wait the worse it will get for them.

Arakhamia the Ukrainian  main negotiator acknowledges how weak their position is  and hoping they can regain some territory before starting negotiations. So it looks like they will continue to send troops into the meat grinder and lose over 1000 men every day in a desperate attempt to improve their position for negotiations.

All this talk about Russia being completely driven out of Ukraine is just fantasy at this point. It may help the weapon manufacturers but it’s only harming Ukraine. Unfortunately most are too brainwashed and whipped into a frenzy to understand this.
 

 

 

 

I really don't understand how you can come to this conclusion with what's going on. 

[magnkarl]

42 minutes ago, Arj Guy said:

The only way Russia doesn’t win is direct NATO intervention which would cause nuclear war in which case we all lose. The way it’s going Russia will continue to gain territory and Ukraine will be destroyed. Ukraine need to negotiate soon as the longer they wait the worse it will get for them.

Arakhamia the Ukrainian  main negotiator acknowledges how weak their position is  and hoping they can regain some territory before starting negotiations. So it looks like they will continue to send troops into the meat grinder and lose over 1000 men every day in a desperate attempt to improve their position for negotiations.

All this talk about Russia being completely driven out of Ukraine is just fantasy at this point. It may help the weapon manufacturers but it’s only harming Ukraine. Unfortunately most are too brainwashed and whipped into a frenzy to understand this.
 

 

 

 

What sources do you base this impression on, just wondering?

Not even Russian high command has your ‘positive’ outlook on things. If you’ve got access to Putin’s diary, can you please share?

Edited June 18, 2022 by magnkarl

[desensitized43]

4 hours ago, sidcow said:

I'm not sure they have any capability to come back stronger without using nuclear weapons. They've gone all in on this. 

They really haven’t gone all in. They haven’t officially started conscripting all the young men of the country and converting all their industrial might to making military stuff.

I hear the nuclear weapons thing a lot but we don’t know for sure what state that nuclear arsenal is in. The Soviet Union had the worlds most powerful nuclear arsenal but that was more than 30 years ago. It’s wildly expensive to maintain a nuclear arsenal, as we well know, and for a lot of that 30 years the Russians didn’t have a pot to piss in.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

2 hours ago, Arj Guy said:

The only way Russia doesn’t win is direct NATO intervention which would cause nuclear war in which case we all lose. The way it’s going Russia will continue to gain territory and Ukraine will be destroyed. Ukraine need to negotiate soon as the longer they wait the worse it will get for them.

Arakhamia the Ukrainian  main negotiator acknowledges how weak their position is  and hoping they can regain some territory before starting negotiations. So it looks like they will continue to send troops into the meat grinder and lose over 1000 men every day in a desperate attempt to improve their position for negotiations.

All this talk about Russia being completely driven out of Ukraine is just fantasy at this point. It may help the weapon manufacturers but it’s only harming Ukraine. Unfortunately most are too brainwashed and whipped into a frenzy to understand this.
 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine v Russia is the battle.  

Russia v the West is the war.  

Russia knows it can't win a proxy/economic war against the West.  They tried as the USSR and eventually collapsed.  

Russia is currently propping up its economy with financial measures that they cannot sustain.  They face decades of expensive imports and cheap exports.  

Even Serbia is moving away from Russian oil in order to maintain its EU application status.  That's a country that NATO was bombing not so long ago.

When Russia says that sanctions aren't working and are harming the West its because the sanctions are working. Otherwise they would ignore them.  

Russia knows all of this. The future is dire. 

[LondonLax]

It depends on what we consider ‘winning’.

Russia doesn’t have the man power to push any further into Ukraine. However Ukraine doesn’t have the resources to regain what they have lost. 

At some point presumably the two sides say enough is enough and redraw the map of Ukraine to include two new ‘independent’ provenances.

Ukraine’s war effort is dependent entirely on charity from the west and it is now clear that we are either not willing to fund that or are not willing to antagonise Putin with more decisive action that would risk a nuclear response. 

[foreveryoung]

2 hours ago, Arj Guy said:

The only way Russia doesn’t win is direct NATO intervention which would cause nuclear war in which case we all lose. The way it’s going Russia will continue to gain territory and Ukraine will be destroyed. Ukraine need to negotiate soon as the longer they wait the worse it will get for them.

Arakhamia the Ukrainian  main negotiator acknowledges how weak their position is  and hoping they can regain some territory before starting negotiations. So it looks like they will continue to send troops into the meat grinder and lose over 1000 men every day in a desperate attempt to improve their position for negotiations.

All this talk about Russia being completely driven out of Ukraine is just fantasy at this point. It may help the weapon manufacturers but it’s only harming Ukraine. Unfortunately most are too brainwashed and whipped into a frenzy to understand this.
 

 

 

 

Nuclear war would never happen chap. Only a pre-empt strike from Nato may force it, which won't happen, or Nato going all in, which they won't. an that's if they still have the capability to launch a weapon, which I very much doubt. I'm by far saying the Ukrainians have got this, but Russia are struggling, anyone who believes otherwise must be in support of the opposition.

Edited June 18, 2022 by foreveryoung

[Genie]

10 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Ukraine v Russia is the battle.  

Russia v the West is the war.

This ^
 

 

[ender4]

17 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

 

Ukraine v Russia is the battle.  

Russia v the West is the war.  

Russia knows it can't win a proxy/economic war against the West.  They tried as the USSR and eventually collapsed.  

Russia is currently propping up its economy with financial measures that they cannot sustain.  They face decades of expensive imports and cheap exports.  

Even Serbia is moving away from Russian oil in order to maintain its EU application status.  That's a country that NATO was bombing not so long ago.

When Russia says that sanctions aren't working and are harming the West its because the sanctions are working. Otherwise they would ignore them.  

Russia knows all of this. The future is dire. 

Yes, though The West are still giving Russia $3 Billion dollars a week, over $100 billion since the war started.   

Unless Europe gets serious about weaning themselves off Russian gas and oil, then Russia keeps getting massive foreign reserves to keep themselves afloat and functioning.  
 

[blandy]

3 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

Our tactic right now is to wear them down and hope they get tired of being inconvenienced before we do. I mean, it’s like we have no access to experience, no access to history books and no access to Wikipedia. 

I think there’s some erroneous analysis in there. Firstly “we”. There is no “we”. Not in the sense that there is a unified entity, and nor is there a shared “tactic” or approach.

FWIW, there’s obviously Ukraine, which has been invaded and war-crimed and terrorised and robbed and which desperately wants and needs lots and lots of help and assistance, military and financial. Ukraine wants to rid itself of the invaders.

Then there are a few nations which are pretty helpful to Ukraine, including the UK & USA, who have some military clout in terms of providing arms and training, but which are also wary of letting really hi tech kit go to Ukraine lest it gets captured and reverse engineered by the Russians.

Then there are Ukraine’s close neighbours who are very supportive, but don’t have the military clout, though they’re admirably doing all they can.

Then there are more reticent Western European nations, who are more mouth and less trousers.

Then there’s the EU, which in turn has the likes of Hungary and the Czech Republic which are highly dependent on Russia.

Then there’s NATO, there’s the UN…

So from that lot (and more) any kind of analysis that it’s an “us” and a “them” doesn’t really pass the test, in my book. Some nations sanction, some selectively sanction, others trade more enthusiastically than previously with Russia.

There is no masterplan, no master manipulator, no controller of the non-Russian “side”.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

23 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Yes, though The West are still giving Russia $3 Billion dollars a week, over $100 billion since the war started.   

Unless Europe gets serious about weaning themselves off Russian gas and oil, then Russia keeps getting massive foreign reserves to keep themselves afloat and functioning.  
 

But how much would the West have given Russia if they hadn't invaded Ukraine?  Whatever the difference is - Russia needs to replace that income.  

Russia is artificially supporting the Ruble by insisting the West pays for oil in rubles.  They are also insisting that companies hold 80% of their cash reserves in rubles.  That's vastly increased demand for the ruble and therefore supported the exchange rate.  

But that isn't sustainable.  When all the Russian companies have converted their cash the demand for rubles will drop.  As the West moves away from Russian oil the demand for  rubles will drop. 

Fairly soon (in historical terms) : 

1. The West will import nothing from Russia.  Russia must find alternative customers who are willing to pay western prices.  

2. The West will export nothing to Russia.  Russia must find third party countries who can source the western products they need.  But that will come at a price.  

So.......their currency will devalue......the price of buying foreign currency will increase......they will spend more on imports.......they will generate less in exports.......they will need to arm to a similar standard as much richer NATO......they are surrounded by NATO on all sides....and they have the largest borders in the world to defend.