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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


maqroll

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10 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

I don't get it??

So no one would be worried about there families in Poland, them being the closest allies, I know they are? 

I'm not sure you understand what NATO is.  Attacking Poland (or any NATO country for that matter) will result in the destruction of the Russian state.   If there is an attack on Poland from Russia then it won't just be them who have restless nights...

You also post messages about the amount of traffic on Flight Radar etc - that will be the refuelling tankers for the constant watch safeguarding the eastern border (not just in Poland but along all of the eastern edge of NATO countries).   

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2 hours ago, ml1dch said:

The leaders of the 27 members agreed in principle to allow Ukraine's candidature.  Which is a bit of a big step, as previously over half were against it.

So they're now at the beginning on the ten year or so journey to meet the entry requirements. 

So while it's a big step, it doesn't really change anything tangible at the moment. 

Here is the Guardian write-up:

'While the EU has surprised observers with its unity and readiness to cast aside old doctrines to stand against Russia’s aggression, EU membership for Ukraine appears to be a step too far.

This is not for lack of support. The EU remembers the 2014 Euromaidan revolution, when peaceful protesters lost their lives to defend Ukraine’s right to choose a European future. Eight member states, all in central and eastern Europe, have called on the EU to “immediately” grant Ukraine EU candidate status and open the process of negotiations.

But supporters know it is an uphill battle. “They have even more values than many of us, but, practically, it will be very challenging,” said one senior diplomat. Old member states, including France, Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark, do not want Ukraine to get a shortcut to EU membership.

Officials point out that Ukraine needs to be able to absorb the 80,000-page EU rule book, the acquis communautaire, encompassing everything from air pollution to the monitoring of zoonoses (infectious diseases from animals). Underpinning this mountain of technical regulations is a sound public administration, an independent judiciary and a market economy. “Let’s be fair, Ukraine is nowhere near that point, especially because of what Mr Putin has done,” a senior EU diplomat said, adding that even before the war, Ukraine was “not moving in the right direction” on the Copenhagen criteria – EU standards on democracy, the rule of law and the economy.

“We want to say yes to Ukraine as much as possible: moral support, show sympathy with the Ukrainian people, make clear they are part of our community of values,” the diplomat added, while suggesting that Ukraine could go well beyond its existing trade and association agreement, via participation in the EU Erasmus student exchange programme or ministerial attendance at EU meetings.

“I think Ukrainians are making [membership] too big an issue and by listening to others who are making this into an easy political decision,” the person said.

The EU diplomat ruled out the suggestion that the EU’s reluctance stemmed from concern over antagonising the Kremlin, but supporters of Ukraine’s EU membership fear this is the real reason. Like Nato, the EU also has its own mutual defence clause, where an attack on one is an attack on all. “There are governments [in old member states] who think we can negotiate with Putin and exchange Ukraine’s European aspirations for peace,” another senior diplomat told the Guardian. “And I just think this is an illusion.”

Long before Ukraine’s membership bid, the EU’s old member states were wary of EU enlargement and burned by democratic backsliding in Poland and Hungary, or lingering corruption in Bulgaria and Romania. “Enlargement changes to a certain extent the nature of the European Union, so it is a question of fundamental existential importance for every leader, for every country,” an EU official said.

And a fast track for Ukraine risks antagonising six western Balkan countries that have been at various stages of the EU membership queue since leaders declared they had a “European perspective” nearly 20 years ago.'

from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/10/will-the-eu-start-to-take-ukraines-membership-seriously

None of that sounds particularly like it's on a path to membership that's going anywhere, and really that's no surprise, either from before the invasion or after it. I suppose it's more than yesterday, but it isn't a thing, any more than Turkey's application is.

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11 minutes ago, trekka said:

I'm not sure you understand what NATO is.  Attacking Poland (or any NATO country for that matter) will result in the destruction of the Russian state.   If there is an attack on Poland from Russia then it won't just be them who have restless nights...

You also post messages about the amount of traffic on Flight Radar etc - that will be the refuelling tankers for the constant watch safeguarding the eastern border (not just in Poland but along all of the eastern edge of NATO countries).   

I totally understand who Nato are and they are preparing right now in neighboring countries. An we all know if Russia entered Poland it would head to WW3, but that is the worry for a few.

Why is that being part of the problem??

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15 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

I totally understand who Nato are and they are preparing right now in neighboring countries. An we all know if Russia entered Poland it would head to WW3, but that is the worry for a few.

Why is that being part of the problem??

I can't answer for the being "part of the problem" post as I didn't make that comment but for me, your post stating "I wouldn't be sleeping if I lived in Poland" just sows fear that the country could be invaded or targeted.  Currently that just isn't going to be the case.  I would like to hope that even if Russia did unfortunately get close to the Poland border and something did go astray across it then all of the hotlines between Presidents and world leaders would be activated to de-escalate (they are probably already talking in parts anyway). World War 3 will not happen over a stray rocket / missile.  That's assuming it is just a conventional rocket / missile or bomb of course. 

Edited by trekka
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The problem with "If we fall, you fall" is that it's not true.

The West has already been pretty clear that whilst they side with Ukraine morally and are happy to provide as much support as possible within the boundaries of not joining the war, that they aren't prepared to fall with Ukraine - if Ukraine falls, we'll be annoyed and we'll always be there to support anyone who wants to try to get it back on its feet - but Ukraine falls on its own - that's the message.

 

 

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I wouldn't be so sure that the USA would go nuclear to stop Russia pushing into Poland, if it happens then it tests a weakened NATOs resolve to its limits.

Trump's attack on NATO damaged the Americans opinions on it and to then ask millions to die for it maybe a step to far. Russia won't do it though as they don't appear to have the logistics to. 

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4 minutes ago, tinker said:

I wouldn't be so sure that the USA would go nuclear to stop Russia pushing into Poland, if it happens then it tests a weakened NATOs resolve to its limits.

Trump's attack on NATO damaged the Americans opinions on it and to then ask millions to die for it maybe a step to far. Russia won't do it though as they don't appear to have the logistics to. 

Russias armed forces wouldn’t be able to take Poland, full stop. There’s enough SAM and patriot systems in Poland to completely dismantle Russias feeble airforce in a matter of days.

If this conflict has taught the world one thing, it is that Russias army is not what it’s been bigged up to be. Now with no money and the equipment losses in Ukraine it’s getting weaker by the day. Russia will be a pariah state with nukes for the foreseeable future.

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9 hours ago, StefanAVFC said:

I literally live in Poland. Nothing is different other than more Ukrainians (already over 2m before the war) and more expensive petrol and gas. We’re sleeping soundly but thanks for your concern. 

Fair play, so why not say this in the first place?

You may live there but it don't make you the oracle how everyone feels. I can guarantee you, some of the older generation are worried, as they have lived through the Russian communism and don't wanna see it again in the country.

But we'll leave it there shall we!

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1 hour ago, foreveryoung said:

Fair play, so why not say this in the first place?

You may live there but it don't make you the oracle how everyone feels. I can guarantee you, some of the older generation are worried, as they have lived through the Russian communism and don't wanna see it again in the country.

But we'll leave it there shall we!

I don't think Putin is a proponent of 'Russian communism'!

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1 minute ago, foreveryoung said:

May aswell give him Ukraine then, I'm sure it will be lovely. 

I don't understand this tbh. I'm just saying that whatever is going on right now isn't 'communism'.

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