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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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15 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

I’m not so sure - retired special forces guys volunteering? Or “trainers” operating in relatively safe regions of western Ukraine? These both seem fairly plausible to me.

Ex-Special Forces volunteering isn’t going to be anything officially controlled by NATO. It gives at the very least plausible deniability.

I don’t see why “trainers” operating is relatively safe parts of Western Ukraine couldn’t give exactly the same training from across the border

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5 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

Are Ukraine…winning?

People win wars? 

I don't think Ukraine s winning per se, nor is Russia.

If we measure by destruction of property, it appears Russia is winning. If we go by destruction of military hardware Ukraine seems to be winning.

Truth is the first casualty of war.

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1 minute ago, fruitvilla said:

People win wars? 

I don't think Ukraine s winning per se, nor is Russia.

If we measure by destruction of property, it appears Russia is winning. If we go by destruction of military hardware Ukraine seems to be winning.

Truth is the first casualty of war.

Wise words, fruit. Wise words.

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1 minute ago, bickster said:

Ex-Special Forces volunteering isn’t going to be anything officially controlled by NATO. It gives at the very least plausible deniability.

I don’t see why “trainers” operating is relatively safe parts of Western Ukraine couldn’t give exactly the same training from across the border

It’s something that has happened in every other proxy conflict major powers have got involved in, so surely there must be reasons? Being able to see things properly, communicate better, I don’t know… it happens… I’m surprised you think it’s completely out of the question.

Agree with your general point that it would be a disaster for a NATO soldier to be caught by the Russians in Ukraine, but there is a huge region of western Ukraine that is basically controlled by Ukraine govt and would make sense that our guys would be moving around there collecting intel, sharing info, etc.

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Don't forget that we have previously (recently) deployed troops on a training mission in Ukraine.

Quote

The UK currently has personnel deployed on Operation Orbital, which is the UK’s training mission to Ukraine, established in 2015 following the illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia a year earlier. It is a demonstration of the UK’s unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty. Since 2015, UK personnel have trained over 18,000 members of the Ukraine Armed Forces, making a real difference and saving lives. It was extended by three years to March 2023 by Defence Secretary Ben Wallace in November 2019.

Gov website

To be clear though, the above is a news story from 2020 and does not reflect the situation currently.  

Edited by trekka
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If Russia launched a nuke, it would be mutually assured destruction. It would trigger several nuclear weapons to launch directly at their major cities. 

He won’t use them. I think he’s realised he isn’t getting any younger and what’s to make a statement before he shuffles of this mortal coil. Unfortunately, he’s willing to sacrifice thousands of men before he does. Monster. 

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Napoleon used to say that one general or marshal was worth 100.000 men, Russia has lost 3 two star generals (4 if you count the Chechen one, but unconfirmed I think) in 2 weeks. It's fairly obvious why they were there. In my army days we'd only see the top brass if we effed up, or if someone needed replacing. I think Putin's generals have been sent to sort out the cluster¤%#¤ in the convoys, probably been a bit too open and likely got picked off by either a drone or snipers.

At any rate it's good that Putin is losing his yes men at this rate.

Interesting fact, Vasily Zaytsev, one of USSR's best snipers of all times (the guy in Enemy at the Gates), tried to make a new life for himself after the war in Kiev, but was sent to prison because USSR thought he was a spy. The way Ukraine is picking off officers it appears that they've adopted Vasily's techniques.

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1 hour ago, Delphinho123 said:

Can somebody summarise where we’re at with this war? I was led to believe the Russians would take Ukraine in a few days with Ukraine surrendering…

Why hasn’t this happened…? Are Ukraine…winning?

'winning' isn't the right framework for thinking about it. Putin's expectation seems to have been that the Ukrainian government would rapidly collapse and its leadership flee, which was not a *completely* ridiculous idea but definitely isn't how it has worked out. Instead the Ukrainians have put up fierce resistance and bogged the Russians down, and we seem to have reached a bit of a stalemate. However, the Russians are still completely destroying the country, huge numbers of people are dying, and one way or another the only way the Russians are going to leave at this point is when they decide to retreat. Nobody is going to 'win' this conflict. 

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19 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Napoleon used to say that one general or marshal was worth 100.000 men, Russia has lost 3 two star generals (4 if you count the Chechen one, but unconfirmed I think) in 2 weeks. It's fairly obvious why they were there. In my army days we'd only see the top brass if we effed up, or if someone needed replacing. I think Putin's generals have been sent to sort out the cluster¤%#¤ in the convoys, probably been a bit too open and likely got picked off by either a drone or snipers.

At any rate it's good that Putin is losing his yes men at this rate.

Interesting fact, Vasily Zaytsev, one of USSR's best snipers of all times (the guy in Enemy at the Gates), tried to make a new life for himself after the war in Kiev, but was sent to prison because USSR thought he was a spy. The way Ukraine is picking off officers it appears that they've adopted Vasily's techniques.

Mag, your posts are superb. Thanks for sharing all this info. 

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Below you see the effectiveness of even Soviet era weaponry against Russian personell carriers and tanks (and what appears to be a small car full of soldiers?!). Likely a Polish or DDR variant of the RPG based on the speed of the projectile.

The big explosion hitting the second tank is likely from a UK nLAW or Panserfaust 3.

Spoiler

 

Vid hidden as it's slighly graphic.

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17 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Below you see the effectiveness of even Soviet era weaponry against Russian personell carriers and tanks (and what appears to be a small car full of soldiers?!). Likely a Polish or DDR variant of the RPG based on the speed of the projectile.

The big explosion hitting the second tank is likely from a UK nLAW or Panserfaust 3.

  Hide contents

 

Vid hidden as it's slighly graphic.

So mad. Whatever hit that thing had some serious firepower behind it. 

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2 hours ago, Delphinho123 said:

Can somebody summarise where we’re at with this war? I was led to believe the Russians would take Ukraine in a few days with Ukraine surrendering…

Why hasn’t this happened…? Are Ukraine…winning?

Putin, is that you? 

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12 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

Extremely close range though, you rarely see that.

Actually, this sort of scenario is what Russia will face if they decide to try to 'take Kiev'. There'll be soldiers behind every corner with light anti-tank weapons ready to dismantle armour. Russia aren't used to meeting this sort of anti-Russia tactics. 

Poland has also delivered a very powerful anti-air system called MANPAD (yeah I know, sounds like a diaper) recently, should take down helicopters and older airplanes en masse.

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43 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Below you see the effectiveness of even Soviet era weaponry against Russian personell carriers and tanks (and what appears to be a small car full of soldiers?!). Likely a Polish or DDR variant of the RPG based on the speed of the projectile.

The big explosion hitting the second tank is likely from a UK nLAW or Panserfaust 3.

  Hide contents

 

Vid hidden as it's slighly graphic.

There are some seriously graphic videos on tik tok and instagram which I hope people refrain from sharing. It seems the whole of the Ukraine are posting videos of killing's involving the Russian soldiers. There is actually a video of a Russian soldier committing suicide with assault rifle under the chin things are that crazy. The level of psychological damage to humans that 3 weeks ago would've been happily going about life is horrendous. Quite sickening that humans don't care about putting others through this sort of shit. 

I have serious doubts Russian troops will be able to get into boots into Kyiv without never coming out in huge numbers. They are meeting serious resistance. Even encircling Kyiv is going to see them picked off in huge numbers, especially armour. They may need to ask the Ukrainians farmers for lifts home because they may have no wheels left. Either way I hope this is over soon but I'm not banking on it. 

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