The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[Rolta]

10 minutes ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

Selective data selection in this thread. Whod’ve thunk it?! Breaking new ground. 

The things we tell ourselves to make ourselves feel better.

[Wainy316]

14 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Please post the same graph showing how far the UK economy fell in relation to the rest of the G7 during the pandemic.

We're currently like a marathon runner coming in in 8th place putting on a sprint finish after the other runners have finished.

Claiming this as vindication is utterly laughable.

'Fastest Growing Economy in the G7' is the ultimate Tory soundbite at the mo.  Johnson can't go a minute without saying it and almost all pro Tory related media and tweets are shamelessly parroting it too.  

Unfortunately these things cut through and stick with some people despite the argument being taken apart again and again.

[WhatAboutTheFinish]

15 minutes ago, sidcow said:

We're currently like a marathon runner coming in in 8th place putting on a sprint finish after the other runners have finished.

Claiming this as vindication is utterly laughable.

Not sure I really follow the analogy.

The IMF has the UK outperforming the EU’s biggest economies until 2026, that’s quite the sprint.

[WhatAboutTheFinish]

12 minutes ago, Rolta said:

The things we tell ourselves to make ourselves feel better.

Quite.

[sidcow]

3 minutes ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

Not sure I really follow the analogy.

Yes, I know.

[WhatAboutTheFinish]

6 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Yes, I know.

I take your point about the UK’s covid dip being worse than other nations. How much of that do you attribute to the make up of U.K. economy (service heavy) and how much to not being in the EU? Similarly, from where we stand, how much better do you think those forecasts would be if were still a member? Maybe you can point me to the last time the U.K. outperformed those 3 nations over such a period whilst still a member to give me an idea? 

[bickster]

44 minutes ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

Not sure I really follow the analogy.

The IMF has the UK outperforming the EU’s biggest economies until 2026, that’s quite the sprint.

Why does that graph show Italy and not India?

 

[sidcow]

10 minutes ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

I take your point about the UK’s covid dip being worse than other nations. How much of that do you attribute to the make up of U.K. economy (service heavy) and how much to not being in the EU? Similarly, from where we stand, how much better do you think those forecasts would be if were still a member? Maybe you can point me to the last time the U.K. outperformed those 3 nations over such a period whilst still a member to give me an idea? 

I don't have those figures, and would need to put in a lot of work I'm frankly not motivated to do to research all of that.  I have however seen news story after news story from multiple sources that Brexit has shown no discernible benefits whilst putting many barriers to trade in place.   Unless you believe that the entire global press, not just UK press, are reluctant to publish anything positive about Brexit and latch on to anything negative with gleeful joy this seems to be a pretty accurate representation of what's going on.

It is also a fact that the UK's Covid dip was worse than any G7 nation.

You mention the UK is service heavy which is true.  It's also true that the service industry was hit less severely by Covid than any other industry.

So you would expect countries that make and export a lot of stuff like Japan, Germany and USA to have been hit MUCH worse than a Service oriented nation.   Why did we then fall further?  We should have had a big advantage there.   I work in Insurance and we had our best year ever last year.

So something more must be at play here for our dip to be much worse.   Well our service industry has taken a beating, not from the Pandemic but from Brexit, London briefly lost it's position as the top Finance Centre in Europe a few months ago, something it's held since the dawn of commerce and would have been unthinkable in recent years, that's all to do with Brexit not the Pandemic.   Banks are moving functions away from London, companies are relocating head offices away from the UK.   Companies are listing in Amsterdam not on the LSE.   These are all things hitting our rock solid service industry as well as out physical trading ability.

From pretty much everything I have seen and read we are currently picking up some of that slack but our Economy is still smaller than it was in 2018, or some say only just about back on parity meaning we've missed out on 2 full years of growth.   Other nations are accelerating slower but as they didn't fall so hard are in a much healthier position with more normal growth in their Economies than you would expect to see.

If we maintain out current rate of Growth I will accept that Brexit hasn't hit us but I will also be eating my hat.    I wonder when Boris stops trumpeting about the fastest growing economy (it will be a long time after it's no longer actually the case anyway) as it would be so obviously untrue.    

 

 

 

[Genie]

30 minutes ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

Similarly, from where we stand, how much better do you think those forecasts would be if were still a member? 

I did quote this from the FT on the previous page

John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, estimated the likely UK trade performance based on a model, “doppelgänger UK”, derived from the performance of similar countries. The model showed that as of October, the latest month for which data is available, UK imports and exports of goods were 15.7 per cent below the level that could have been expected had the UK not left the EU’s customs union and single market in January.

 

[Enda]

3 hours ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

Nice to see the see the argument moving on from “oh it will be an unmitigated disaster” to “oh it would be soooo much better if we were in the EU”. 

Hi, WATF. I know you weren't talking about me, but my position has always been that there the decline would be long and gradual. E.g.:

 

On 07/10/2020 at 08:40, Enda said:

People talk about Jan 1 because it might start a big bang. While true, I’ve always suggested that the main economic effects of Brexit will be slow, quiet, and cumulative rather than visible as a big shock.

On 13/12/2020 at 14:12, Enda said:

Excellent post. Just add one more depressing comment that there are longer term effects too. About twenty years ago Lidl and Aldi entered the Irish grocery market and really shook things up, bringing down prices.

If No Deal makes it harder for, say, Deutsche Telecom to enter the UK mobile phone market, then there will be less competition over the coming years. That applies to every sector, phones is only an example.

So it’s not just the initial adjustment period that will cause pain, the UK is choosing a less dynamic economy for the long run.

 

[ciggiesnbeer]

12 hours ago, bobzy said:

Not sure if this is sarcastic or not?  I don’t pay massively close attention, but remember reading an FT article that basically said the economy has been hit pretty hard.

No not being sarcastic at all. I genuinely believed the economy would be devastated by Brexit. It wasnt. I happen to think it would have been even stronger if we had remained in the EU but that is a separate matter.

I just got it wrong and I felt the need to say it. 

Not saying other pro EU folks got it wrong, they may have had different beliefs. But I thought the UK was going to plummet to the 10th biggest GDP or worse. Instead it grew to 5th.

Edited February 23, 2022 by ciggiesnbeer

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, ciggiesnbeer said:

No not being sarcastic at all. I genuinely believed the economy would be devastated by Brexit. It wasnt. I happen to think it would have been stronger if we had remained in the EU but that is a separate matter. I just it wrong and I felt the need to say it. Not saying other pro EU folks got it wrong, they may have had different beliefs. But I thought the UK was going to plummet to the 10th biggest GDP or worse. Instead it grew to 5th.

Every measure shows the UK economy is worse off now than if we’d remained in the EU. There’s major challenges in every industry that buys of sells anything with the EU.

These are things that “remainers” were saying, and are absolute fact. 

Edited February 23, 2022 by Genie

[ciggiesnbeer]

2 minutes ago, Genie said:

Every measure shows the UK economy is worse off now than if we’d remained in the EU. There’s major challenges in every industry that buys of sells anything with the EU.

These are things that “remainers” were saying, and are absolute fact. 

I also believe the economy would have grown and been even  stronger staying in the EU. But the fact it is didn't shrink or collapse. It grew. And again I believed the UK economy would collapse and we would become the poor man of Europe. I was wrong. You may not have thought that and thats cool. I was just saying I was wrong. 

[Genie]

14 minutes ago, ciggiesnbeer said:

I also believe the economy would have grown and been even  stronger staying in the EU. But the fact it is didn't shrink or collapse. It grew. And again I believed the UK economy would collapse and we would become the poor man of Europe. I was wrong. You may not have thought that and thats cool. I was just saying I was wrong. 

The economy did collapse and shrink, now it is recovering some of that collapse. In the meantime the cost living and inflation are going through the roof, record petrol, diesel, electric prices, higher taxes, higher interest rates. 

The economy contracted by nearly 10% during the pandemic, the biggest contraction in 300 years.

The impact of Brexit is that it will be worse than the impact of covid, see below.

Quote

The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse in the long run compared to the coronavirus pandemic, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility has said.

Richard Hughes said leaving the EU would reduce the UK's potential GDP by about 4% in the long term.

He said forecasts showed the pandemic would reduce GDP "by a further 2%".

"In the long term it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic", he told the BBC.

His comments come after the OBR said the cost of living could rise at its fastest rate for 30 years, with suggestions inflation could hit almost 5%.

Speaking after Wednesday's Budget, Mr Hughes said recent data showed the impact of Brexit was "broadly consistent" with the OBR's assumption that the leaving the EU would "reduce our long run GDP by around 4%".

"We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%," he added.

BBC

I’m not sure how you think the country is flourishing post Brexit? It’s much worse (as predicted).

If a business was making a billion pounds a year profit, then did something drastic and didn’t make any profit the following year, then the year after that they made 200 million profit they aren’t prospering, they haven’t grown by 200 million, they are 800 million down because of what they did.

Edited February 23, 2022 by Genie

[ml1dch]

41 minutes ago, ciggiesnbeer said:

No not being sarcastic at all. I genuinely believed the economy would be devastated by Brexit. It wasnt. I happen to think it would have been even stronger if we had remained in the EU but that is a separate matter.

I just got it wrong and I felt the need to say it. 

So to paraphrase, you believed some government propaganda a few years ago, so to compensate you've chosen to believe some government propaganda now?

[ciggiesnbeer]

Here are the IMF GDP numbers , which provides the most accepted GDP estimates (all GDP numbers are estimates). Put a big * next to 2022 obviously which seems pie in the sky to me but I included it as the latest estimate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(nominal)

Anyways  will leave it.  I just wanted to share my perspective as a Pro EU voter who wants us to rejoin on how I got some things wrong. Totally cool others didn't think it would be a disaster for the GDP, I did and I was wrong.




Different source for GDP rankings written this month.
https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/

 

Edited February 23, 2022 by ciggiesnbeer

[ciggiesnbeer]

4 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

So to paraphrase, you believed some government propaganda a few years ago, so to compensate you've chosen to believe some government propaganda now?

Sure if you like. Or maybe when the facts change and my fears turn out to be unfounded I recognize the facts and improve my thinking going forward.

[bannedfromHandV]

Genuine question because i don’t know the answer but had we not had Brexit would we still be dealing with the out of control costs of living we’re now dealing with, gas/electric, petrol/diesel, general goods and foods etc? 
 

[ciggiesnbeer]

8 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Genuine question because i don’t know the answer but had we not had Brexit would we still be dealing with the out of control costs of living we’re now dealing with, gas/electric, petrol/diesel, general goods and foods etc? 
 

Yes. Sadly. Inflation is hitting everywhere not just the UK. Its a real crisis. This is just from today but its been brewing for months.

"Analysts expect that Euro Area Inflation Rate increased by 0.3% month-over-month in January. On a year-over-year basis, Inflation Rate is projected to grow by 5.1%. Core Inflation Rate is expected to increase by 2.3% year-over-year."

If it makes you all feel better in the UK and EU its even worse here in the USA. I blame Trump.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eur-usd-moves-higher-ahead-083339851.html

Edited February 23, 2022 by ciggiesnbeer

[chrisp65]

11 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Genuine question because i don’t know the answer but had we not had Brexit would we still be dealing with the out of control costs of living we’re now dealing with, gas/electric, petrol/diesel, general goods and foods etc? 
 

 

The effects of Brexit will be a slow burn, all the rules and regulations are yet to be fully in place.

It would be a lot easier to predict the impact if we didn’t have such massive outside influences making it difficult to see what is Brexit and what is covid, what is the energy crisis, what is a worldwide supply issue.

The ship stuck in the Suez Canal was a massive big deal, markets reacting to Russian energy supply is a massive deal. Japanese production line problems.

You just can’t do a straight like for like measure of 2016 and 2022.

Not least, because we have a government that has found the magic money forest and is absolutely throwing money at projects. For every loss of a car part factory, or every Portuguese worker that went home, we currently have some giant project to build Customs and Border Control infrastructure projects.

I believe that to a large extent the ‘luck’ of other massive events has hidden the cost or the benefit of Brexit. At least for now.

Brexit could still yet be a really positive thing.