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$200 Million Takeover


supernova26

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My friend 'doesn't know what is happening' but said he still 'understands there are a number of interested parties' who want to drive the price as low as possible.

Not much and very different to other stories, but hey.

 

I think potential investors will realise that AVFC is not a good investment at £200m given the amount needed to be spent and the FFP rules.  Then again, surely if we have lots of interested parties the price will be driven up and not down.

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My friend 'doesn't know what is happening' but said he still 'understands there are a number of interested parties' who want to drive the price as low as possible.

Not much and very different to other stories, but hey.

I think potential investors will realise that AVFC is not a good investment at £200m given the amount needed to be spent and the FFP rules. Then again, surely if we have lots of interested parties the price will be driven up and not down.
I think he means they want the price to be lower than it is (context of our convo), but then the rumour is Lerner will accept less. I just don't know anymore. Edited by dodgyknees
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Last 2 seasons - The FA Cup has saved us - firstly wigan had a fixture pile up - then we were lucky enough to play Hull who had one eye on the cup final - true that the points from this game weren't needed in the final shake up - but it mean't we weren't in the final day lottery when anything could have happened.

 

If people are speculating that Lerner is soft on his asking price - then maybe the finincial hit of relegation isn't the crisis for him that we all think. Perhaps he is already resigned to selling villa at a massive loss - and that includes selling us a championship club..

 

Why would Lerner just accept selling Villa at a massive loss? There's a big difference between selling a Premier League club and a Championship one.

 

 

 

How does the parachute work when a club goes into the Championship ?

 

Maybe he is going for that ?

 

Hope not because it is about £80m spread over 3 seasons I think? Better business to stay in the Premier League!

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Last 2 seasons - The FA Cup has saved us - firstly wigan had a fixture pile up - then we were lucky enough to play Hull who had one eye on the cup final - true that the points from this game weren't needed in the final shake up - but it mean't we weren't in the final day lottery when anything could have happened.

If people are speculating that Lerner is soft on his asking price - then maybe the finincial hit of relegation isn't the crisis for him that we all think. Perhaps he is already resigned to selling villa at a massive loss - and that includes selling us a championship club..

Why would Lerner just accept selling Villa at a massive loss? There's a big difference between selling a Premier League club and a Championship one.

The way he has run the club over the past few seasons suggests he doesn't really care that much. I'm pretty sure we will be a Championship club eventually while he is in charge.

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Last 2 seasons - The FA Cup has saved us - firstly wigan had a fixture pile up - then we were lucky enough to play Hull who had one eye on the cup final - true that the points from this game weren't needed in the final shake up - but it mean't we weren't in the final day lottery when anything could have happened.

If people are speculating that Lerner is soft on his asking price - then maybe the finincial hit of relegation isn't the crisis for him that we all think. Perhaps he is already resigned to selling villa at a massive loss - and that includes selling us a championship club..

Why would Lerner just accept selling Villa at a massive loss? There's a big difference between selling a Premier League club and a Championship one.

The way he has run the club over the past few seasons suggests he doesn't really care that much. I'm pretty sure we will be a Championship club eventually while he is in charge.

 

Just because he's made some bad decisions doesn't mean he doesn't care.

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Last 2 seasons - The FA Cup has saved us - firstly wigan had a fixture pile up - then we were lucky enough to play Hull who had one eye on the cup final - true that the points from this game weren't needed in the final shake up - but it mean't we weren't in the final day lottery when anything could have happened.

If people are speculating that Lerner is soft on his asking price - then maybe the finincial hit of relegation isn't the crisis for him that we all think. Perhaps he is already resigned to selling villa at a massive loss - and that includes selling us a championship club..

Why would Lerner just accept selling Villa at a massive loss? There's a big difference between selling a Premier League club and a Championship one.

The way he has run the club over the past few seasons suggests he doesn't really care that much. I'm pretty sure we will be a Championship club eventually while he is in charge.

 

Just because he's made some bad decisions doesn't mean he doesn't care.

 

 

No granted it doesn't, but just because he claims to be a fan doesn't mean he does either.

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Last 2 seasons - The FA Cup has saved us - firstly wigan had a fixture pile up - then we were lucky enough to play Hull who had one eye on the cup final - true that the points from this game weren't needed in the final shake up - but it mean't we weren't in the final day lottery when anything could have happened.

 

If people are speculating that Lerner is soft on his asking price - then maybe the finincial hit of relegation isn't the crisis for him that we all think. Perhaps he is already resigned to selling villa at a massive loss - and that includes selling us a championship club..

 

I've seen the idea that we were saved by Wigan & Hulls FA Cup runs posted a few times and it makes no sense at all.

 

Regardless of whether Wigan had a fixture pile up or not it doesn't alter the fact that both Newcastle & Sunderland finished between us and the relegation zone in 12/13. Surely if anyone was 'saved' by Wigans cup run it was Sunderland. 

 

Personally i don't buy the 'one eye on the cup' as a reason for us beating Hull but even if you accept that it doesn't affect Norwich's points tally, who finished 5 points below us. Norwich didn't reach the points total we had after the Chelsea game, which was nearly a quarter of the season left to go. Thats got nothing to do with Hull reaching the cup final.

 

If we'd finished 17th in both seasons I could see some logic in the statements but we finished 15th.

 

As far as the takeover goes the fact that we are bringing in 'frees' at the moment doesn't necessarily mean a great deal. In a world Cup year transfers often happen later than a non WC year while players available on a free will be signed early to avoid losing out to other clubs.

 

It would make no sense, to me, for Lerner to make no investment in the squad at all. I don't think he'll have a lot to play with but I do think funds are available.

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Last 2 seasons - The FA Cup has saved us - firstly wigan had a fixture pile up - then we were lucky enough to play Hull who had one eye on the cup final - true that the points from this game weren't needed in the final shake up - but it mean't we weren't in the final day lottery when anything could have happened.

 

If people are speculating that Lerner is soft on his asking price - then maybe the finincial hit of relegation isn't the crisis for him that we all think. Perhaps he is already resigned to selling villa at a massive loss - and that includes selling us a championship club..

 

I've seen the idea that we were saved by Wigan & Hulls FA Cup runs posted a few times and it makes no sense at all.

 

Regardless of whether Wigan had a fixture pile up or not it doesn't alter the fact that both Newcastle & Sunderland finished between us and the relegation zone in 12/13. Surely if anyone was 'saved' by Wigans cup run it was Sunderland. 

 

Personally i don't buy the 'one eye on the cup' as a reason for us beating Hull but even if you accept that it doesn't affect Norwich's points tally, who finished 5 points below us. Norwich didn't reach the points total we had after the Chelsea game, which was nearly a quarter of the season left to go. Thats got nothing to do with Hull reaching the cup final.

 

If we'd finished 17th in both seasons I could see some logic in the statements but we finished 15th.

 

As far as the takeover goes the fact that we are bringing in 'frees' at the moment doesn't necessarily mean a great deal. In a world Cup year transfers often happen later than a non WC year while players available on a free will be signed early to avoid losing out to other clubs.

 

It would make no sense, to me, for Lerner to make no investment in the squad at all. I don't think he'll have a lot to play with but I do think funds are available.

 

 

Not only that, Hull took points off Fulham in London the week before playing us and beat Swansea a couple of weeks earlier so clearly Hull supposedly only looking at the cup didn't help those relegation battling teams. 

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Howard Hodgson has posted an update on TBAR.  I can vouch for this info and I would say it is probably the closest we are going to get in terms of knowing what the current situation is re a takeover.

 

 

I have concrete information from a senior Villa official that no sale is on the horizon and very limited funds are being afforded.. Lambert def stays.. A decision made during the USA trip where it could easily have gone either way. There was a deal but for now at least it appears to have completely stalled and Villa are preparing for the season with Lambert and the current squad plus some loan/bosman signings.

I warned him we are looking firmly at relegation and he said he admits he is fearful if we start badly the atmosphere will be awful..

I asked him "Do you think Villa will have a new owner next season" He replied he honestly didn't know but also said "Why would anyone buy a football club now. Impossible 2 make money and impossible to break top 4 with FFP". I said Liverpool had done it not spending fortunes which he acknowledged..

I also asked him where he thought Villa should be finishing as a club regularly in Prem and he said 7th but ultimately admitted the primary aim was staying up..

He also said prospective buyers looking at what has happened to Khan at Fulham will be spooked.

Pointed out we have in effect 9 new signings; Bent, Okore, Hutton, Given, CNZ, Senderos, Cole, Gardner and Grealish plus Kozak coming back with Benteke hopefully available by Sept/Oct which certainly gives our squad a more healthy, experienced look. Acknowledged the bomb squad policy adopted by Lambert was a mistake and also signing only "Young and hungry".

Keane 75% sure on joining and was Lambert's initiative which is a bold move considering Keane's dominating personality and fact he has been used to being a number 1. Still he will definitely demand more from the players and encourage a far more positive approach on the pitch so I hope he comes as its all well and good having different players but we have to adopt a far more fluid and progressive style of play on the pitch and be prepared to commit players beyond the ball. If you don't run off the ball you are left with no option but sideways, backwards, hoof and we all want to see the back of that.

Regarding the ownership its clear we have a very willing seller and potential buyers know this.. They know Lerner wants out and the longer this goes they will believe they can drive the price further and further down. We will eventually be sold but as the initial deal has broken down I am now less confident who to, or indeed when and all the points raised re FFP and a virtually impossible financial model are valid.. On the other hand if we are run properly without all the glaring mistakes, mostly in the transfer market in the high spending days then this can work for the right owner and it is one of the few big clubs in England that has the capability and potential to compete with a good infrastructure IE Stadium, training ground, academy etc all in place. Equally A mega rich individual surely wouldn't be put off by the sanctions imposed by Uefa re FFP thus far to Man City and PSG.

Bearing in mind the nature of Lerner's statement I really believed a deal was very close to being finalised. It appears it was as Mat Law, Charlie Wyatt and Neil Moxley all reported on in March but for whatever reason its broken down so now we have to hope its either revived or a suitable new party/individual comes to the table. It should be noted Lerner's takeover didn't take place till August so there is time but there is now a real possibility we will start next season with the same board, same manager and same owner and with the warning bells that have been ringing for the last four years that remains a frightening proposition!   

 

http://bellsareringing.forumotion.com/t785-villa-update

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The signing of Senderos and Cole would seem to suggest some patching up of the team in order to get it through next season. That, alone, indicates to me that the club is'nt expecting to be sold that quick.

 

Lets just hope, eh?

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The club is at such a low ebb at the moment and I just can't see us surviving this next year. We went into the previous 2 seasons with a fair amount of optimism, but barely survived on both occasions. This year, there's nothing but negativity surrounding the club; those promising players have (largely) proven themselves to be sub-standard, we have a manager who none of us believe in any more and an owner who doesn't want us.

 

It'll take nothing short of a miracle to preserve our ever-present Premier League status.

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The signing of Senderos and Cole would seem to suggest some patching up of the team in order to get it through next season. That, alone, indicates to me that the club is'nt expecting to be sold that quick.

 

Lets just hope, eh?

I was hopeful a deal was going through behind the scenes, but I think you are probably correct in your assumption as it now looks like it is going that way. You would have thought if a deal was close then no deals would be signed off regardless of whether they are free transfers or not. Unfortunatley there is not a lot else we can do as fans but hope, and support the team when the season gets underway. As mentioned in the HH post from TBAR above, if the atmosphere gets poisonous then I think that will be it for our Premier League status.

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It'll take nothing short of a miracle to preserve our ever-present Premier League status.

Really?

With Bent, Okore, Hutton, Given, CNZ, Senderos, Cole, Gardner, Grealish and Kozak with Benteke hopefully available by Sept/Oct, even if only 50% of those bother its not ‘too’ bad...

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The signing of Senderos and Cole would seem to suggest some patching up of the team in order to get it through next season. That, alone, indicates to me that the club is'nt expecting to be sold that quick.

Lets just hope, eh?

I was hopeful a deal was going through behind the scenes, but I think you are probably correct in your assumption as it now looks like it is going that way. You would have thought if a deal was close then no deals would be signed off regardless of whether they are free transfers or not. Unfortunatley there is not a lot else we can do as fans but hope, and support the team when the season gets underway. As mentioned in the HH post from TBAR above, if the atmosphere gets poisonous then I think that will be it for our Premier League status.

My biggest worry is the massive cloud of uncertainty that will surround the club. To also not have Bentake for part of the season will really hit us. It's his goals them have kept us up te past 2 seasons. I'm just waiting for the bids to come in for Vlaar and Delph for the iceing on the cake.

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It'll take nothing short of a miracle to preserve our ever-present Premier League status.

Really?

With Bent, Okore, Hutton, Given, CNZ, Senderos, Cole, Gardner, Grealish and Kozak with Benteke hopefully available by Sept/Oct, even if only 50% of those bother its not ‘too’ bad...

 

 

Granted we have some players who sound good on paper, but it is my opinion that we'll be going into next season in worse shape than we were a year ago. I accept there will be some additions to the playing staff, but I think this will be outweighed by the general negativity surrounding the club. Out of those players mentioned, I wouldn't expect any more than 2 or 3 (save Benteke) to make a serious contribution throughout the year. I don't think the players have the belief in themselves nor the manager to see us through another Premier League campaign, and should anything happen to Vlaar, then it'll be curtains for AVFC. 

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It'll take nothing short of a miracle to preserve our ever-present Premier League status.

 

I'd say it's very likely that we'll preserve our place in Premier League.

 

If you believe it's really going to take a "miracle" for us to stay up then you'll be a wealthy man once you put all that money at 4/1 on us to be relegated. 

 

 

The best odds you can get on Villa "to stay up" is 1/5 = 83% chance of staying up according to bookies. 

Edited by CVByrne
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