The Randy Lerner thread

[BG_Villa_Fan]

Its not about net spend chap!

Therefore for me we lost 50 mill+ of talent from a squad that had just finished 17th. Those players needed replacing before you even look to improve. Had all those players have stayed I'd suggest we'd have needed to spend at least 20 mill to be competitive and give ourselves a fair chance of not being involved in a relegation battle 

Couldn't disagree more - you can't say we've had 3 players with a 50 mil worth of talent and then use them being 17th as the appropriate place for the talent, however inaccurate your evaluation ways are. Either we've had such talent that our position should have been much higher than 17th, or they weren't worth what you're claiming. Either way, net spend isn't the issue. 55 mil spent was more than enough for anyone with an ounce of understanding of what they're doing in order to survive.

[Villaninoz]

It's dawned on me today exactly what Randy's plan is...

He'll keep hold of the club until they are relegated and then sell to the highest bidder, even if it is only for a reasonably small figure.

Think about it a minute, last season we received 68m for finishing 17th in the Prem, plus whatever our Cup run was worth. where did that money go? our transfer dealings were pretty much done from our sales, wages would be mainly covered my merchandise, ticket sales and sponsorship, so we can estimate Lerner pocket roughly 75m.

This season the TV rights have gone up and he can expect to pocket 100m plus.

This has been going on for 4 or 5 seasons now so why would he be interested in selling for a one off fee of 150m when he can keep getting golden eggs and then sell for 50m+ when the inevitable happens?

As a business man with no long term loyalty to the club, it makes total business sense as he is making some good money on his original investment, but unfortunately for us Villa fans the future is gloomy until the day he sells, and by then i think we will be playing championship football. 

[dudevillaisnice]

Wages wouldn't be covered by merchandise sales. Far from it.

[Stevo985]

It's dawned on me today exactly what Randy's plan is...

He'll keep hold of the club until they are relegated and then sell to the highest bidder, even if it is only for a reasonably small figure.

Think about it a minute, last season we received 68m for finishing 17th in the Prem, plus whatever our Cup run was worth. where did that money go? our transfer dealings were pretty much done from our sales, wages would be mainly covered my merchandise, ticket sales and sponsorship, so we can estimate Lerner pocket roughly 75m.

This season the TV rights have gone up and he can expect to pocket 100m plus.

This has been going on for 4 or 5 seasons now so why would he be interested in selling for a one off fee of 150m when he can keep getting golden eggs and then sell for 50m+ when the inevitable happens?

As a business man with no long term loyalty to the club, it makes total business sense as he is making some good money on his original investment, but unfortunately for us Villa fans the future is gloomy until the day he sells, and by then i think we will be playing championship football. 

No.

Just, no.

Lerner isn't pocketing money from the club. Let alone 75million a season!

[BG_Villa_Fan]

It's dawned on me today exactly what Randy's plan is...

He'll keep hold of the club until they are relegated and then sell to the highest bidder, even if it is only for a reasonably small figure.

Think about it a minute, last season we received 68m for finishing 17th in the Prem, plus whatever our Cup run was worth. where did that money go? our transfer dealings were pretty much done from our sales, wages would be mainly covered my merchandise, ticket sales and sponsorship, so we can estimate Lerner pocket roughly 75m.

This season the TV rights have gone up and he can expect to pocket 100m plus.

This has been going on for 4 or 5 seasons now so why would he be interested in selling for a one off fee of 150m when he can keep getting golden eggs and then sell for 50m+ when the inevitable happens?

As a business man with no long term loyalty to the club, it makes total business sense as he is making some good money on his original investment, but unfortunately for us Villa fans the future is gloomy until the day he sells, and by then i think we will be playing championship football. 

 You talk like the club hasn't been in the red each year. If he can run the club remotely close to a way that would allow him to pocket 75m, then he'd have no trouble selling at 150m, even at 350m for that matter. Truth is he can't pocket a penny out of the club and investors don't think they could either. That's why there's no buyer and it'll be even worse in the championship. 

[DCJonah]

I despise the owner but its just not true that's he's taking money out of the club. 

He is however damaging the club while he wants to get the maximum amount of money he can with little care or thought about the long term future. 

[weedman]

Genuine question, other than spunk a few hundred million quid of his own cash into us (which he is not going to do) what more could Randy be doing right now? He's not taking any money out of the club, so what we spend is nothing to do with him, it's what we can afford, he's put football people in charge of football matters (something we all wanted him to do) and is trying to make the club well run (with actual structures in place for recruiting players etc) and self sustaining (so the next time a manager leaves were not left completely in the brown stuff)...I know this is all way too late, but for the here and now what exactly could he do more?

If the only thing he can do is hand us money then what do you expect from a new owner that can't afford to buy us and present and would need him to lower his price?

I'm not trying to start an argument or anything, but I'm genuinely curious as to what more he could be doing right now that it would make such a massive difference if someone else came in?

[ender4]

Genuine question, other than spunk a few hundred million quid of his own cash into us (which he is not going to do) what more could Randy be doing right now? He's not taking any money out of the club, so what we spend is nothing to do with him, it's what we can afford, he's put football people in charge of football matters (something we all wanted him to do) and is trying to make the club well run (with actual structures in place for recruiting players etc) and self sustaining (so the next time a manager leaves were not left completely in the brown stuff)...I know this is all way too late, but for the here and now what exactly could he do more?

 

If the only thing he can do is hand us money then what do you expect from a new owner that can't afford to buy us and present and would need him to lower his price?

 

I'm not trying to start an argument or anything, but I'm genuinely curious as to what more he could be doing right now that it would make such a massive difference if someone else came in?

Nothing.

Unless we get a new owner who just wants to spend millions/billions on a plaything (chance of this is 0.000000000000000000000001%), then it doesn't really make much of a difference anymore who our owner is to a large degree.

What is important is having the right structure and senior management in place, which Lerner has now started doing.

It is then up to Tom Fox to run the club properly.

 

 

[Stevo985]

A new owner wanting to spend billions isn't even possible anymore with FFP.

[chrisp65]

My theory, for what it's worth, is that there is little Randy can do.

I believe he took us on with good intentions. However, he clearly isn't a sports club owner. His time with the Browns was lacklustre, his time here could at best be described as lacklustre if you were being generous.

He hasn't had the luck or the wit or the balls or whatever it is that makes the difference. He's tried to spend £10 million where £15 million would buy off a problem. He's delayed decisions - then seemingly made a random or rushed decision.

We could have had worse owners. We could have all made a chicken advert and then disappeared into the Championship years ago. He could have sold us to some chancer, wiped his hands and walked away.

He's stuck now. The economy changed, football's elite changed, even the spending rules changed. He's spent a lot of money and the market in football clubs has fallen away. The Chinese are buying everything possible in the UK, everything from power stations to blocks of flats to broken kettles for the scrap metal. But not even the Chinese will currently spend £150 million on a sports franchise that will then need another £50 million just to stand still.

For a multi multi millionaire, he ain't half unlucky.

[Danwichmann]

Pretty much agree with all of that chrisp65. Best of intentions and I've nothing against the guy, but he can't do anything now other than wait for a good buyer to come along (which looks like a long wait). 

[jackbauer24]

This is really simple. Either you believe the following equation is right or you recognise the reality;

Poor team - best players + worse players = better results

It really is that simple. Forget net spends, forget managers tactics. Last season, and for quite a few seasons, we had a very bad squad. This season most sane people will recognise we have, at best, lost our three best players and replaced the rest like for like. So we are worse than last season, where we finished 17th... It's really not that hard!

Bunn* < Given (Given was No.1 when he finished, Bunn isn't)
Gana* < Delph (hatred aside, a better player so far, nothing to suggest otherwise)
Veretout* < Cleverley (again, not even a contest as it stands)
Gestede = Helenius (both not worthy of starting place, Gestede gets one because no competition in that area)
Amavi > Luna (Yay, a victory for the current squad and by some distance!)
Ayew* = Weimann (might shade towards Ayew but not by much if it does)
Lescott < Vlaar (a broken Vlaar is better than a fixed Lescott)
Crespo* < Lowton (imagine Lowton will end up having had more of an impact on first XI than Crespo ever will)
Ilori < Tonev (ok, taking the mick now! But we can't even make fun of Ilori so that's boring!)
Benteke - not replaced.

Which leaves Traore and Richards as the improvements to our squad who didn't come in to replace a player. Bent and Herd not bothered being replaced but another significant wage saving in Bent.

*also almost certainly considerably lower wages than replacement

Edited October 26, 2015 by jackbauer24

[MakemineVanilla]

My theory, for what it's worth, is that there is little Randy can do.

I believe he took us on with good intentions. However, he clearly isn't a sports club owner. His time with the Browns was lacklustre, his time here could at best be described as lacklustre if you were being generous.

He hasn't had the luck or the wit or the balls or whatever it is that makes the difference. He's tried to spend £10 million where £15 million would buy off a problem. He's delayed decisions - then seemingly made a random or rushed decision.

We could have had worse owners. We could have all made a chicken advert and then disappeared into the Championship years ago. He could have sold us to some chancer, wiped his hands and walked away.

He's stuck now. The economy changed, football's elite changed, even the spending rules changed. He's spent a lot of money and the market in football clubs has fallen away. The Chinese are buying everything possible in the UK, everything from power stations to blocks of flats to broken kettles for the scrap metal. But not even the Chinese will currently spend £150 million on a sports franchise that will then need another £50 million just to stand still.

For a multi multi millionaire, he ain't half unlucky.

Life coaches et al always talk about passion and when they say passion, what they really mean is the determination to keep going when things get f****** awful.

By that definition, I think Randy lacks passion for owning a sports team and he showed that when he sold the Browns as soon as the period his father had stipulated ended, and then ran Villa down after he'd wasted millions on developing the brand.

I am sure that if you asked his mother she would tell you tales of a faddish childhood where he'd be mad on train-sets for a few months and then he would stick it in the cupboard and forget about it.

She might even say, 'He was a great disappointment to his father'.

He wouldn't be the only one.

 

[jackbauer24]

Genuine question, other than spunk a few hundred million quid of his own cash into us (which he is not going to do) what more could Randy be doing right now? He's not taking any money out of the club, so what we spend is nothing to do with him, it's what we can afford, he's put football people in charge of football matters (something we all wanted him to do) and is trying to make the club well run (with actual structures in place for recruiting players etc) and self sustaining (so the next time a manager leaves were not left completely in the brown stuff)...I know this is all way too late, but for the here and now what exactly could he do more?

 

If the only thing he can do is hand us money then what do you expect from a new owner that can't afford to buy us and present and would need him to lower his price?

 

I'm not trying to start an argument or anything, but I'm genuinely curious as to what more he could be doing right now that it would make such a massive difference if someone else came in?

I don't believe we are the only club in the league who can not spend a penny unless we make player sales. We would have been well within FFP remits to have spent another £20m easy. Taking out the top net spenders (Man City) and the bottom spenders for fairness I added up the spends of each club (according to skysports) and divided by 18 - the average spend was £18m on top of any sales each club made. We spent less than half that.

What do I want from a Chairman - one who is willing to compete. Not blow billions but keep up with the modern game. If you can only spend what you earn in player sales then fair enough but that's not the case - every other club makes money from tickets, merchandise and most crucially TV and yet we're the only club who are somehow 'short' all the time. Lerner is a bloody magician for making some fans see this as 'out of his hands'. 

[DCJonah]

What more could he do? Well I think over the past few years he could have made better managerial decisions, made the squad stronger (especially in janaury windows) and see long term steady progress.

What we've had is a horrendous 6 year period, the worst of any premier league club over the same time frame. 

The things put in place aren't for the benefit of this club, its so that he can get as much money as possible. If that means we continue to just survive each year then i get the impression he couldn't care less. 

Theres a reason the last 4 consecutive seasons have seen less points gained than the final disaster of a season under Doug.

[weedman]

What more could he do? Well I think over the past few years he could have made better managerial decisions, made the squad stronger (especially in janaury windows) and see long term steady progress.

What we've had is a horrendous 6 year period, the worst of any premier league club over the same time frame. 

The things put in place aren't for the benefit of this club, its so that he can get as much money as possible. If that means we continue to just survive each year then i get the impression he couldn't care less. 

Theres a reason the last 4 consecutive seasons have seen less points gained than the final disaster of a season under Doug.

Oh I agree, and believe me I'm not trying to claim he's been a good owner or anything!

However...whatever the reasons for him putting these things in place, he HAS put them in place, that will benefit us as a club in the long run. It's not like the Man City owners gives a toss about Man City, they were bought to build a brand and indirectly turn a profit and it's worked perfectly, the fact that the fans of the club have benefitted enormously is simply a happy side effect.

I'm more asking from this point forward, ignoring what he's done in the past, moving forward what would you expect a new owner to do that would solve all our problems? There is no guarantee, absolutely none that a new owner would do a better job at recruiting managers or making decisions...especially since we now seem to have an actual team in place that actually understand football - I'd wager that if we had the current set up when Randy first came we'd be in a far stronger position today. The only thing I could see a new owner bringing to the table that the current one can't is money, and I don't think Randy lowering his price by £100million and selling to the highest bidder is going to leave us with an owner who wants to blow hundreds of millions on us...

[DCJonah]

We are bottom of the league and have sacked 2 managers in the last 6 months. I'm struggling to agree with the concept that Lerner is now doing things the right way. If this is the result of doing things the right way then we're truly ****.

[DCJonah]

Collymore ripping into the club. Can't disagree with much of it. Fair play stan.

[weedman]

We are bottom of the league and have sacked 2 managers in the last 6 months. I'm struggling to agree with the concept that Lerner is now doing things the right way. If this is the result of doing things the right way then we're truly ****.

We appointed a gamble of a manager, it didn't work out and he has been sacked, it happens, it doesn't mean the system is wrong. As for being 20th...well, that's a combination of the structure we are using and the manager we had, had we started this philosophy as a club sooner we wouldn't be in this situation now, granted, and it will have some teething problems, but again, it doesn't make it wrong. We would have had to start working this way eventually, and it would always have some initial problems, but we've started now.

And again I go back to...other than throwing money at us, what could a new owner offer us now moving forwards? I have no doubt Lerner is the man mainly responsible for our current situation, but unless we get someone mega rich (and they don't seem to be forthcoming), I am really struggling to see what would happen to suddenly improve us if he were to sell up tomorrow

[Villarocker]

Randy Lerner is killing our club and he still has support. To me, those fans are either blind or, they are afraid that another owner will come in and be worse, somehow. 

He's not the slightest bit interested in us and wants away. He's made bad call after bad call. 

People say there's nothing else he can really do. How's about bringing proper football people into the club for starters? How's about stopping with the bullshit? How's about stop worrying about commercial revenue and giving us players that want to play for Aston Villa with pride? How's about employing a proper football manager who can sign his own players instead of being enforced to work with players that may not suit the way he wants his team to play? 

There's lots of things Lerner can do. The biggest of all would be to lower the price further to attract a serious buyer. OK, we may not get £100m to spend but maybe we would get more than £7-£10m net or whatever it is that we've had for the last few seasons. Who knows, the new man just might be clued up enough to see that it's football men we need at the club and not money men!