MikeMcKenna Posted February 15, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted February 15, 2016 10 minutes ago, Richard said: and thats the reason why he wont invest. He has no motivation to. The club is largely irrelevant to him. Why would he spend any money on it now? We are down and going further. People need to wake up to that and then figure out whether they want that to continue or they want to do something to try and force the situation. Unfortunately we may have to fall even further till people stop being apathetic. That said look what happened to Leeds. They just went from one disaster to another with barely a whimper from the fans. I just don't think the passion is there anymore - it is easier for the fans to just walk away. Will be interesting to observe the state of things this time next year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Jareth said: Ok, so the argument is that Randy won't invest, and meanwhile will be expecting someone to pay him £150 million minimum, and he will wait until that happens, while the club depreciates further in value dropping down to league 1 and then league 2. The NFL doesn't have relegation. Stockmarket shares go up and down over time. But Villa will shrivel away to nonexistence and Randy will still be expecting £150 million. These are 3 different types of asset, one rule does not apply to all three. Pleaae explain that to Mr Lerner. I am of the opinion that RL is either unaware of the possible consequences or too stupid to realise them Edited February 15, 2016 by Grasshopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilbertoAVFC Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Can see ticket prices getting cheaper next year. They should be getting people in for free for Everton if they give a sh*t. The best way, in my view, to overcome apathy would be to organise the fans a bit better between ourselves and make the Holte fun to go to. Brigada gets loads of stick but I enjoy the game far more if I'm just singing all game. When we go down there will be a tacit acceptance that this is us now. We all need to take pressure off ourselves and the players and just enjoy the Championship. It's gonna be a lot more fun than you think. Leeds, Nottingham, Sheffield, Brighton, Blues, Bristol, Cardiff, Wolves away - we'll enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernGordon Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 3 hours ago, rodders0223 said: No need to apologise. Er, I think there is. My exact comment (in anger remember) was that I hope Lerner met a similar fate to Matthew Harding..... Lerner's a word removed but my post was crass and over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukes Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 2 hours ago, Genie said: I'm not sure I agree with this. The asking price is what Randy Lerner sets it as. He could ask for a 'Championship' selling price now if he wanted and have gotten a buyer whilst offering premier league football. There is no official pricing for football clubs, Randy wants back what he put in more or less. A championship club with a championship price tag is no better than a premier league club with a premier league price tag. If Randy wanted to sell us for a huge loss he'd have done it already. I'm not sure I agree with all of what you have written. The asking price is indeed dictated by Randy, but the price reflects the status and projected income of the 'asset', therefore unless we come back up, and assuming that Randy prefers to cut his losses rather than risk losing even more money should we not bounce immediately back. then the price will indeed need to be dropped. The crux of this is 'does Randy want to sell', and I happen to believe he does want to, just that he wants to realise as much of a return for his investment as is possible. The failure of a sale last summer may well have been because one more season in the premier league would have meant the possibility of a higher selling price. Income from TV alone from next season would be up by around £40M/season that's a huge increase, and it would almost certainly have been key in his stubbornness to maintain his asking price. If you take the increase in TV money, Villa would earn approximately £67M by staying up this season, and then that would guarantee £92M for 2016-2017, and a minimum of the parachute payment of £86M for 2017-2018 if we were then relegated in 2016 - 2017 so earnings from TV over the 3 years would have been guaranteed at £245M, you can factor in other earnings of around £40M per year and that comes to around £365M income over three years. In my opinion the reported £150M asking price (ignoring any unproven rumours of debt etc) would have been reasonable for a club of our size and history in the Premier League with those incomes. Upon relegation this year however the sums are quite different. TV money for 2015-2016 is roughly the same at £62.1M, Parachute payment next season £35.7M , and then for the year after £28.7M (assuming we don't come straight back up). That equates to £126M from TV compared with £245M and total revenue likely to also drop let's say for arguments sake (and being very kind) to £30M/annum that means total income of approx. £216M compared with £365M. This leaves Randy with three main options (though I am sure there are many others) :- 1. throw whatever is possible in the realms of FFP at getting promotion at the first attempt, and then sell the club at a (most likely) higher price than the £150M he is currently asking. 2. Sell the club this summer while the full cost of relegation allows a substantial selling price with the carrot of promotion and the money that brings for the new owners. 3. Shut up shop, stagnate and have the value of the asset reduced over a longer period (it's really scary what happens money wise once the parachute payments end). Putting aside whatever opinions people may personally have about Randy and his ownership of the club, he still has a responsibility to his families wealth, and we have to assume that the Lerner family have advisors who are there to protect that wealth. It's that that leads me to believe his best possible chance of getting anything back is by selling this summer rather than waiting. Perhaps it's just wishful thinking, but we all need something to hope for and clutch onto in these dark dark days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 1 hour ago, NorthernGordon said: Er, I think there is. My exact comment (in anger remember) was that I hope Lerner met a similar fate to Matthew Harding..... Lerner's a word removed but my post was crass and over the top. Dude, yer too hard on yourself, there are plenty on VT who can do that for you! It's all Randy's fault anyway - he's p*ssed everyone right off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 3 hours ago, Grasshopper said: I was accused of spouting drivel some weeks ago when I suggested the possibility of "doing a Villa" being worse than a Leeds or a Portsmouth. RL doesn't need the money now. He wants HIS price and will sit it out till he can get it. We haven't bottomed out yet. This is only step 1 of many more to come. Don't worry, it's still drivel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said: Don't worry, it's still drivel. May I remind you when we are in L2 Lerner still not selling and no way back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 9 minutes ago, Grasshopper said: May I remind you when we are in L2 Lerner still not selling and no way back? I'm prepared to bet any amount of money you can name that we won't enter League 2 in the next ten years (I say ten years because at some point I want to collect my winnings). Literally, name a price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudevillaisnice Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Getting relegated doesn't help the cause however with the parachute payments that the club will receive I can imagine some investors would be tempted out there. Even if we were to get a billionaire owner or ownership now promotion is ironically harder than the situation we had of previous years of trying to staying up in my opinion. Club needs a new project and that project needs to start with Randy Lerner selling up until then I can't see us doing much in terms of getting back to this league and staying competitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyvilla Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The reality is protests involving not going will do nothing whatsoever. The game has been taken from the fans , they are more interested in you buying a sky tv package than they are in you paying £20 to sit in the stands. In the context of what tv payments are , nowadays gate receipts are spare change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villarocker Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 If Randy Lerner was a film.. ....... .. Can we exchange him for Tom Hanks? We get a Hollywood superstar with charisma as owner and Lerner can f**k off to Tinsel town to star in Forrest Gump 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeMcKenna Posted February 15, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted February 15, 2016 2 hours ago, mattyvilla said: The reality is protests involving not going will do nothing whatsoever. The game has been taken from the fans , they are more interested in you buying a sky tv package than they are in you paying £20 to sit in the stands. In the context of what tv payments are , nowadays gate receipts are spare change I don't think a boycott is feasible as a protest. But when we are in the Championship, gate receipts will be much more important. Wolves are a well supported team in the Championdship. Their turnover to year end May 2014 was £32 million. Leeds did £25 million and others get a lot, lot less. I don't know if things of change but Villa will get a parachute payment of £60 million over 4 years. For comparison, we turned over £119 million till May 2014. Our finances are going to take a hammering!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 (edited) Cameras do not want empty stadiums.....neither do advertisers. its the most effective weapon we have. Edited February 15, 2016 by TRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 5 minutes ago, TRO said: Cameras do not want empty stadiums.....neither do advertisers. its the most effective weapon we have. To be truly effective it has to be done against Spurs or Chelsea or teams like them. If we do it against Bournemouth it won't have the same media coverage. I'm sure our attendances will dwindle, but if we're going to make an organized effort it should be against one of the big clubs in a game that is televised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 31 minutes ago, sne said: To be truly effective it has to be done against Spurs or Chelsea or teams like them. If we do it against Bournemouth it won't have the same media coverage. I'm sure our attendances will dwindle, but if we're going to make an organized effort it should be against one of the big clubs in a game that is televised It will never happen as an organised effort.....there are too many divided minds and too many motivated reasons for attending, like meeting friends. it will only happen individually on a gradual basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12 minutes ago, TRO said: It will never happen as an organised effort.....there are too many divided minds and too many motivated reasons for attending, like meeting friends. it will only happen individually on a gradual basis. Yup I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 5 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: I'm prepared to bet any amount of money you can name that we won't enter League 2 in the next ten years (I say ten years because at some point I want to collect my winnings). Literally, name a price. It seems to me that you are still upset at my original Post. Well that really is your problem, not mine. You also seem more interested in hammering home your view/opinion on me. Hey it's a forum, every one is entitled to his/her own opinion without feeling pressured from others in any way. So please feel free to have your own opinion and I'll have mine. (and if you really are hot for proving me wrong to gain a few quid - do yourself a favour and either do some overtime or go to a bookies, I'm sure they are game) I came in here for a discussion with Villa fans, not to argue with anyone in particular, So please chill then we can read/answer each others posts without any kind of stress or ill-feeling. Peace!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderball Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 (edited) 3 hours ago, mattyvilla said: The reality is protests involving not going will do nothing whatsoever. The game has been taken from the fans , they are more interested in you buying a sky tv package than they are in you paying £20 to sit in the stands. In the context of what tv payments are , nowadays gate receipts are spare change Not strictly true, for example Arsenal's Emirates receipts generate over £100m a season. Not to be sniffed at? Back to topic, the thing is he wants out badly too, and relegation will surely only accelerate his departure, he is going to get burned one way or another, selling at a loss is his least painful option, at least he will have closure. Edited February 15, 2016 by thunderball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyvilla Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Not strictly true, for example Arsenal's Emirates receipts generate over £100m a season. Not to be sniffed at? Excellent , now how does that effect us ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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