The Randy Lerner thread

[Jareth]

The 2014/15 accounts are due soon, I think it was Feb/march last year. Given the amount we stopped losing in the last set of accounts, were that repeated again, then we should be in profit for last season, and you would think also for the season we are now in. I think this will be an important criteria for any new buyer.

And Lerner may want to stay in the prem, but his actions are what have put us in the championship - so it is his plan. So na na na naaaa.

[Genie]

7 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Simply, we'll be more attractive to buyers as a Championship club, because the asking price will be lower.

I'm not sure I agree with this.

The asking price is what Randy Lerner sets it as. He could ask for a 'Championship' selling price now if he wanted and have gotten a buyer whilst offering premier league football.

There is no official pricing for football clubs, Randy wants back what he put in more or less. A championship club with a championship price tag is no better than a premier league club with a premier league price tag.

If Randy wanted to sell us for a huge loss he'd have done it already.

Edited February 15, 2016 by Genie

[HanoiVillan]

Just now, Genie said:

I'm not sure I agree with this.

The asking price is what Randy Lerner sets it as. He could ask for a 'Championship' selling price now if he wanted and have gotten a buyer whilst offering premier league football.

There is no official pricing for football clubs, Randy wants back what he put in more or less. A championship club with a cahmpionship proce tag is no better than a premier league club with a premier league price tag.

If Randy wanted to sell us for a huge loss he'd have done it already.

The counterpoint to that is that maybe he just doesn't really want to get rid of us enough yet . . . After years in the lower division, clear we're not coming back, him still hemorrhaging cash, he might be glad to get rid of us.

But you're right, it does ultimately depend on when he's prepared to sell us. It's just that overall, far more transfers of ownership are done at Championship level than at PL level.  

[MikeMcKenna]

8 minutes ago, Jareth said:

They are not looking at how much they can make, just how much they can stop losing - the last 5 years of underinvestment backs that up. Also, we stand a better chance of being sold in the championship, the price is lower and Randy still wants rid of us.

'Also we stand a better chance of being sold in the championship, the price is lower and Randy still wants rid of us'

I think you are very wrong. While it is evidently true that he has ordered investment to be cut and to batten down the hatches, what a lot of people don't consider is that Lerner does not need the money! He does want to be rid, but not at any price. He can wait in the hope that we bounce back after a few seasons and buyers will be found.

As I said in an earlier post, Lerner does not realise further losses till he sells. His ilk take a very long term term view on "investments' that are in a loss making position - the comment by Fox a year ago that Lerner is 'not a motivated seller' is code for 'Lerner is very rich, don't make any stupid offers, he doesn't need the money and can wait till the right offer comes along'.

We are imo stuck with Lerner for years. Being in the Championship will have absolutely no impact on the asking price. Putting Hollis in as Chairman, making King a Director etc basically enables Lerner to distance himself from AVFC and forget about his investment till another mug comes along.

Unless a miracle happens and we bounce back quickly, it is going to be a very bleak future for AVFC under his ownership. 

[dont_do_it_doug.]

I am self employes and dont even make a 6 figure turnover p.a.

I've changed my sub-contracted management team as of 01.01.2016 in an effort to increase turnover.

My very first concern about making this decision was:

Service quality must maintain its level and have the means to improve.

Otherwise, making changes would be of no benefit at all.

I wonder if other businesses in a continually changing market think this way, especially multi-million pound industries that have a lot more to lose than me and my humble livelyhood.

I'm in a similar position to you though as a small business owner.

I am in the process now of refreshing the team. Staff and contractors. It's not that we weren't making money, but things had gotten more than a little stale and the air stank. However, I have at least 2 guys that I know I can rebuild around, so I have pulled out the stops to keep them through what has become a difficult transition period.

We had a bad egg, he was like a virus spreading his disease throughout our little community. As soon as it clicked for me I ripped him out without a seconds thought. No messing around.

I'm not sure what my point is. Perhaps it's that Randy strikes me as a ditherer. He's never had a clear MO, we have been floating down the river without a rudder for far too long. It's not easy to admit failure but with so many people so reliant on him, this supposed custodian, the human thing to do as a billionaire would be to cut your losses and run.

Unfortunately for us, humble isn't a word in his vocabulary.

[TRO]

9 hours ago, terrytini said:

These are all interesting and, as you say, would increase everyone's understanding. I mean, never mind debt, why can't Randy even publicise the sale Price ? Why is it secret !

But whilst I understand your urge to know these things, and even more so respect your right to ask...- what difference does it make ?

In the end, Randy has spent X, in total. Doesn't matter what on, or how it is structured. It is X.

He wants, in return Y. Again, regardless of the science of money, he wants Y.

But no buyer is offering Y. He has been offered Z, or at any rate Z is all he will be offered.

So if he takes Z he can sell. 

It doesn't matter how that figure is arrived at, the simple equation is he can fulfill his promise to move on if he accepts Z. That is what we are worth, because that is what someone is willing to pay, whether it's called equity, loans, or sherbert dabs.

The detail just stops us seeing the wood for the trees IMO.

 

 

 

........I just want a team to be proud of.

I wasn't interested in the money side of the club in the late 70's early 80's and My feelings haven't changed.

[Richard]

Randy Lerner Apologises for under investment

Speaking exclusively today Randy Lerner ,  the reclusive and under fire owner of bottom club Aston Villa,  opened his heart and apologised for the lack of investment in the organisation,  specifically the on the pitch talent department of the  company.  He said "I would like to wholeheartedly apologise to our customer base for this,  the truth is I was going to contact the departmental head Mr Garde but my phone switched itself on and deleted my contacts while it was in my pocket.  Apologies for that"

[Jareth]

2 minutes ago, MikeMcKenna said:

'Also we stand a better chance of being sold in the championship, the price is lower and Randy still wants rid of us'

I think you are very wrong. While it is evidently true that he has ordered investment to be cut and to batten down the hatches, what a lot of people don't consider is that Lerner does not need the money! He does want to be rid, but not at any price. He can wait in the hope that we bounce back after a few seasons and buyers will be found.

As I said in an earlier post, Lerner does not realise further losses till he sells. His ilk take a very long term term view on "investments' that are in a loss making position - the comment by Fox a year ago that Lerner is 'not a motivated seller' is code for 'Lerner is very rich, don't make any stupid offers, he doesn't need the money and can wait till the right offer comes along'.

We are imo stuck with Lerner for years. Being in the Championship will have absolutely no impact on the asking price. Putting Hollis in as Chairman, making King a Director etc basically enables Lerner to distance himself from AVFC and forget about his investment till another mug comes along.

Unless a miracle happens and we bounce back quickly, it is going to be a very bleak future for AVFC under his ownership. 

Yep, all entirely possible, a more gloomy assessment but all very possible. If there is one chink of light, it is that Randy doesn't behave like normal businessmen, and after all this nonsense, I still buy that he wants to hand over to the right owner - so am just pinning all my hopes on more offers coming in when we are in the championship.

[Genie]

My concern is that the gap between what he wants and what we're worth will widen in the Championship.

 

 

[TRO]

2 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

I'm in a similar position to you though as a small business owner.

I am in the process now of refreshing the team. Staff and contractors. It's not that we weren't making money, but things had gotten more than a little stale and the air stank. However, I have at least 2 guys that I know I can rebuild around, so I have pulled out the stops to keep them through what has become a difficult transition period.

We had a bad egg, he was like a virus spreading his disease throughout our little community. As soon as it clicked for me I ripped him out without a seconds thought. No messing around.

I'm not sure what my point is. Perhaps it's that Randy strikes me as a ditherer. He's never had a clear MO, we have been floating down the river without a rudder for far too long. It's not easy to admit failure but with so many people so reliant on him, this supposed custodian, the human thing to do as a billionaire would be to cut your losses and run.

Unfortunately for us, humble isn't a word in his vocabulary.

Sorry to hear of your dilemma, but yes you have dealt with it.I have had similar experiences.

I fear too, that B6 has become a breeding ground for dithering. May be borne out of indecision.

I also believe the the club has a bad egg or eggs.....but unfortunately it could be one that's difficult to remove.

 

[MikeMcKenna]

2 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Yep, all entirely possible, a more gloomy assessment but all very possible. If there is one chink of light, it is that Randy doesn't behave like normal businessmen, and after all this nonsense, I still buy that he wants to hand over to the right owner - so am just pinning all my hopes on more offers coming in when we are in the championship.

The reality is that he never was a 'businessman' he was an investor who stumped up a **** load of money, then employed businessmen, managers etc. Most 'investors'  are glorified gamblers - especially the very rich ones ones. 

To put this into perspective, when his father died, the family sold MBNA to the Bank of America for shares and cash. In 2007 those shares were worth over $50, then the crash happened and today they are trading at less than $12. The Lerner family may have sold some shares but my understanding is that they still have a large number. Like many of the super rich, they will not cash all the shares and take the long term view that they will hopefully rise in value. So the BoA shares have been pretty disastrous for the Lerners. However that bitter pill was sweetened when they sold the Browns for $1 Billion - some you lose but others they win.

This is exactly his position on AVFC imo.....

The 'right owner' will be the one who matches Lerners asking price. 

[Jareth]

24 minutes ago, MikeMcKenna said:

The reality is that he never was a 'businessman' he was an investor who stumped up a **** load of money, then employed businessmen, managers etc. Most 'investors'  are glorified gamblers - especially the very rich ones ones. 

To put this into perspective, when his father died, the family sold MBNA to the Bank of America for shares and cash. In 2007 those shares were worth over $50, then the crash happened and today they are trading at less than $12. The Lerner family may have sold some shares but my understanding is that they still have a large number. Like many of the super rich, they will not cash all the shares and take the long term view that they will hopefully rise in value. So the BoA shares have been pretty disastrous for the Lerners. However that bitter pill was sweetened when they sold the Browns for $1 Billion - some you lose but others they win.

This is exactly his position on AVFC imo.....

The 'right owner' will be the one who matches Lerners asking price. 

I get that the Lerners might want to wait and see, but the Cleveland Browns play in a league where relegation doesn't exist. Unless Fox and Hollis perform an utter miracle, the investment may never be forthcoming from the owner to see us promoted - so long term, even Lerner can see he will never get a premiership price for a championship club. Of course it might take him a few seasons to realise this, or he has realised it already and will take a championship price when the right buyer comes along. All IMHO and based on utter guesswork.

The accounts the last two seasons have come out last week of Feb, so I look forward to seeing if all Lerner's cost cutting has actually put us in profit.

Edited February 15, 2016 by Jareth

[MikeMcKenna]

Just now, Jareth said:

I get that the Lerners might want to wait and see, but the Cleveland Browns play in a league where relegation doesn't exist. Unless Fox and Hollis perform an utter miracle, the investment may never be forthcoming from the owner to see us promoted - so long term, even Lerner can see he will never get a premiership price for a championship club. Of course it might take him a few seasons to realise this, or he has realised it already and will take a championship price when the right buyer comes along. All IMHO and based on utter guesswork.

Nope... He will wait. His BoA shares crashed in 2007, 9 years later they are worth nearly 85% less, he still holds the shares. He will never take a 'Championship price' - he doesn't need the money. 

[Jareth]

1 minute ago, MikeMcKenna said:

Nope... He will wait. His BoA shares crashed in 2007, 9 years later they are worth nearly 85% less, he still holds the shares. He will never take a 'Championship price' - he doesn't need the money. 

Well going on your figures, his BoA shares still hold 15% of their 2007 value. Villa has cost him millions to hold onto - he may view his assets differently.

[Richard]

Proud History,  three ringed circus future

 

You are a complete and utter word removed lerner.  CONSIDERABLY worse than Ellis

[DCJonah]

You're spot on mike and that's why the fans who claim he wants out as much as we want him out are dead wrong. 

Being owner of Aston Villa has zero impact on his life. It's like one of us having an expensive watch in a draw. It has zero impact on our day to day lives and we might sell it if the price is right one day. Until that day it can sit in the draw and we forget about it. 

[MikeMcKenna]

1 minute ago, DCJonah said:

You're spot on mike and that's why the fans who claim he wants out as much as we want him out are dead wrong. 

Being owner of Aston Villa has zero impact on his life. It's like one of us having an expensive watch in a draw. It has zero impact on our day to day lives and we might sell it if the price is right one day. Until that day it can sit in the draw and we forget about it. 

Exactly he is 'not a motivated seller'. We are stuck with him and need to get use to the idea of AVFC playing in the lower leagues - he is going nowhere :-(

[Richard]

and thats the reason why he wont invest.  He has no motivation to.  The club is largely irrelevant to him.  Why would he spend any money on it now?  We are down and going further.  People need to wake up to that and then figure out whether they want that to continue or they want to do something to try and force the situation.

[Grasshopper]

4 minutes ago, MikeMcKenna said:

Nope... He will wait. His BoA shares crashed in 2007, 9 years later they are worth nearly 85% less, he still holds the shares. He will never take a 'Championship price' - he doesn't need the money. 

I was accused of spouting drivel some weeks ago when I suggested the possibility of "doing a Villa" being worse than a Leeds or a Portsmouth.

RL doesn't need the money now.

He wants HIS price and will sit it out till he can get it.

We haven't bottomed out yet. This is only step 1 of many more to come.

[Jareth]

Ok, so the argument is that Randy won't invest, and meanwhile will be expecting someone to pay him £150 million minimum, and he will wait until that happens, while the club depreciates further in value dropping down to league 1 and then league 2. The NFL doesn't have relegation. Stockmarket shares go up and down over time. But Villa will shrivel away to nonexistence and Randy will still be expecting £150 million. These are 3 different types of asset, one rule does not apply to all three.