Chelsea

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, bobzy said:

On the metrics that people love (xG, xA, xPts etc) Chelsea are right up there in the league - "ahead" of us.  I guess it's probably the difference between having Jackson and a better finisher.

I certainly think it'll be a surprise if we beat them. Hopefully they can also beat Spurs. 

[villa4europe]

25 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I certainly think it'll be a surprise if we beat them. Hopefully they can also beat Spurs. 

If they beat us and Spurs the narrative around them will be crazy

They're not as bad as people make out, the base for a decent team is there, unfortunately the ability to do something bat shit crazy is also there, losing silva is going to be big but if they can sell a few academy players for mind boggling fees and even go get omishen or whatever his name is in the summer Chelsea should be in the hunt next season

Just got to hope mentally they decide not to bother again 

[Brumstopdogs]

28 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I certainly think it'll be a surprise if we beat them. Hopefully they can also beat Spurs. 

Yeah - I would still make them slight favourites against us.

However, for all their very talented midfielders and attacking play I think GK / defensively they can be got at.

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, villa4europe said:

If they beat us and Spurs the narrative around them will be crazy

They're not as bad as people make out, the base for a decent team is there, unfortunately the ability to do something bat shit crazy is also there, losing silva is going to be big but if they can sell a few academy players for mind boggling fees and even go get omishen or whatever his name is in the summer Chelsea should be in the hunt next season

Just got to hope mentally they decide not to bother again 

Yeah, they're going to be fascinating because it genuinely feels like almost every outcome is possible next season. They're not going to win the league, but could finish top 4, but I've said before and continue to maintain that depending on how their sales go and what impact their finances and any potential points deductions have, they could even be considered outside candidates for relegation as well. 

My *guess* is they'll finish 5th-7th and somehow worm out of any PSR problems with financial engineering, but it'll be fascinating to see. 

[bobzy]

2 minutes ago, Brumstopdogs said:

Yeah - I would still make them slight favourites against us.

However, for all their very talented midfielders and attacking play I think GK / defensively they can be got at.

I reckon it's the other way round with bookies - not sure if that's an accurate reflection.  In many respects, I think a draw is the most likely result.

[Brumstopdogs]

15 minutes ago, bobzy said:

I reckon it's the other way round with bookies - not sure if that's an accurate reflection.  In many respects, I think a draw is the most likely result.

Yeah - could well be a close game and I understand we've won, drew and lost to them this season so not the easiest game to pick.

I think that 3-1 home defeat in the FA Cup is still fairly fresh in my mind so, perhaps, that is swaying my nervousness about us getting a positive result vs them. We're certainly capable though.

Edited April 21 by Brumstopdogs

[villa4europe]

5 minutes ago, Brumstopdogs said:

Yeah - could well be a close and game and I understand we've won, drew and lost to them this season so not the easiest game to pick.

I think that 3-1 home defeat in the FA Cup is still fairly fresh in my mind so, perhaps, that is swaying my nervousness about us getting a positive result vs them. We're certainly capable though.

Chelsea are more than capable of making mistakes at the back and missing chances up top too 

We're good enough to win and Chelsea can be bad enough to lose 

We all know villas luck and in the 2 games vs us and Spurs which way round that will fall... But Chelsea also won 4-1 (?) away to Spurs earlier in the season when they were a poorer side albeit spurs got red cards in that game

[villa89]

I'd take a draw against them. They are decent, they just need a striker who isn't a dud. Nkunku been injured all the time doesn't help. 

[calcifer]

9 minutes ago, villa89 said:

I'd take a draw against them. They are decent, they just need a striker who isn't a dud. Nkunku been injured all the time doesn't help. 

That's where I am, some people seem to think they are and we will batter them.... but forgetting they made easy work of us in the cup fixture. Watching that in a pub in Albrighton where 99% of the people in there were custard bowl nobblers was hard going! Left at HT!

If we can keep Palmer quiet then we have a chance. He is a talent! 

But it isn't going to be an easy game 

[tonyh29]

[tinker]

Next! 

[VillaChris]

13 hours ago, bobzy said:

On the metrics that people love (xG, xA, xPts etc) Chelsea are right up there in the league - "ahead" of us.  I guess it's probably the difference between having Jackson and a better finisher.

Yep him, Sterling and Mudryk are all terrible one on one finishers so cost Chelsea countless games when they've been dominating.

Just watch highlights of their two defeats to Wolves this season and some of Sterling's finishing in that is league one standard.

[TheStagMan]

We are more than capable of putting Chelsea to the sword. They hold no fear for us any more. 

 

[Genie]

The difference in squad sizes

 

[villan95]

14 minutes ago, Genie said:

The difference in squad sizes

 

To be fair it does seem like Chelsea have included 6 or 7 academy players on their squad list there whereas City only really have their first team.

[Genie]

9 minutes ago, villan95 said:

To be fair it does seem like Chelsea have included 6 or 7 academy players on their squad list there whereas City only really have their first team.

It’s still crazy, a 35 man first team squad. 

[villan95]

4 minutes ago, Genie said:

It’s still crazy, a 35 man first team squad. 

Yep can't disagree with that

[VillaChris]

On 21/04/2024 at 09:16, HanoiVillan said:

Yeah, they're going to be fascinating because it genuinely feels like almost every outcome is possible next season. They're not going to win the league, but could finish top 4, but I've said before and continue to maintain that depending on how their sales go and what impact their finances and any potential points deductions have, they could even be considered outside candidates for relegation as well. 

My *guess* is they'll finish 5th-7th and somehow worm out of any PSR problems with financial engineering, but it'll be fascinating to see. 

How could they genuinely get relegated? This season they had an awful start. Only teams in the first 10 games they won against were Luton, Burnley and Fulham. At xmas after losing to Wolves they had 22 points from 18 games.

Will likely be a good 25 points off 18th now in what has been a mediocre season. They'll sell what they need to sell aswell.

As I've always said the problem is if they keep failing to qualify for the CL in the next 2-3 years as then the guys on the 8 year deals will be wondering what they signed up for.

[oishiiniku_uk]

On 21/04/2024 at 08:44, HanoiVillan said:

I certainly think it'll be a surprise if we beat them. Hopefully they can also beat Spurs. 

You think it's a surprise if the team in fourth with the joint 3rd best home record beats a midtable side who are joint 10th in the away table? Everton result aside (and the toffees didn't even try to compete in that game) have they convinced in any recent performance? They managed to draw with both Burnley and Sheff Utd and were 2 minutes away from losing to an awful Man Utd. 

Edited April 22 by oishiiniku_uk

[HanoiVillan]

4 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

How could they genuinely get relegated?

To be clear, I'm not suggesting that's a *likely* outcome. But the path to it would involve the possibility, which AIUI does remain, for them to get two points deductions, for both the 22/23 and 23/24 seasons. My understanding of the current situation, based on the White-Jordan-Borson chat last week, was that Chelsea have not yet gotten official approval for including the revenue from the sale of those hotels towards their PSR calculation, and that if that approval is not granted (and I have no way of knowing how likely or not that is) they will have failed their 22/23 PSR calculation by nearly £100m, and if they can't include similar transactions for 23/24 they could fail again by an even larger number. This would surely have to occasion pretty much the largest possible points deduction. Again, I have no way of knowing how likely that is, but it is at least *possible*. 

If two points deductions were combined with an inability to sign enough in the quality to replace players heading out, and also perhaps with failing to manage the Thursday-Sunday routine if they get into the Europa League or Conference League, you could get problems. After all, West Ham weren't a million miles from going down last season; if they'd had a couple of big points deductions as well they'd have gone. I wouldn't bet on this outcome, but I also don't think it can be ruled out completely, at least not yet.