January Transfer Window 2024

[CVByrne]

1 hour ago, Folski said:

It just makes no sense for me to sell Luiz or Martinez to allow the club to progress, some might think thats short sighted but I don't think I've seen better players in their positions in my life following Villa.

You say this as if it's totally out choice. Players have contracts with end dates. The only reason we would discuss selling a player we see as key is because said contract has 2 years left. As this is the last point you can get maximum market value for the player. When the player has one year left you sell at a discount from the previous year or you keep the player for the season and let them go for free. 

Now if we make an assumption Luiz would only sign a contract extension after we qualify for CL then the club have a decision to make this summer and then next summer. This is why it "makes sense" to the club. They will know Luiz' position.

I think the fact he only signed a 3 year extension and not a 4 or 5 year one is a bit telling to me. Martinez, Watkins etc.. all signed 5 year deals which is fully committed. The 3 year deal was a wait and see contract. 

[Philosopher]

4 hours ago, Shaun Teales Moustache said:

We'll never be a top team if we sell our best players, so I think these guys are untouchable:

Martinez

Watkins

Luiz

Kamara

 

These guys are probably not on the market (either due to injuries or recently signed, and all top players):

Moreno

Torres

Carlos

Mings

Tielemans

Buendia

Diaby

Duran

 

These guys, everyone would be happy to sell, but if there was any market, they'd probably be gone already:

Olsen 

Chambers

Dendonker 

Traore

 

So, if we were to sell a player/players to balance the books, I think it would probably be one or two of these -

Cash (~30m) - Valuable, international but homegrown, modern fullback that loads of teams would appreciate that he will run all day and give his all in attack and defence, but he's not a great fit for the systems we play. We need a new RB anyway, could target both an attacking and defensive RB instead of a tweener like Cash, and still probably turn a profit.

Digne (~15m) - Wages seem to be a bit of an issue for FFP, and it's not great having both LBs over 30 and having had injury issues. It would require an Ings like business decision to move on though. He's a valuable member of the squad, but there might be better uses for his 3.5m p/w. 

Konsa (~35m) - If he gets a look in with England (which he does deserve despite my reservations about him as a player), his value will skyrocket. If Harry Maguire is a 75m player, I'd easily take 90m for Konsa. He's good but flawed and if Mings recovers, Konsa is an OK defensive RB or else on the bench because Mings and Torres are both better by a distance, and Carlos is also infinitely better on the ball, if he can ever get back to staying fit and being a solid defender imo.

Ramsey (~60m) - young, English, scores goals, so probably worth at least 70m. Yet up to the time he got injured, I was still expecting Aaron to be the better player. Aaron has better technique, Jacob has better physicality. Aaron just never seemed to make the physical jump that Jacob did. Jacob is a quality player, but he's not a Grealish yet and I don't think he has another jump like that in him. Hopefully he'll kick into another gear, but the money he would bring in would probably fund a whole transfer window, and we haven't really missed him being out, even with Buendia also out. 

Bailey (~35m) - seems crazy to contemplate selling him now that he looks just like the player we thought we were signing. He was out of position up front and is now statistically the most productive player in the league iirc, playing exactly where he wants. If we sell him now, another team gets a bargain. He's currently better than Nico Williams may ever be, which illustrates how hard it will be to actually improve that position if we sell him.

McGinn (~50m) - the one I'd least like to let go, but his return to magnificence means he's valuable. His age and the squad depth at his position mean he's vulnerable, so with Tielemans and Ramsey in the squad, he's also ultimately somewhat replaceable. 50m would probably be too hard to turn down, but it would still hurt if he went for that. Ramsey is worth more on the market, but McGinn is more important to the team right now, so if we want to target Champions League Ramsey would be the smarter sell imo. 

 

I would definitely not be contemplating selling Konsa, Ramsey, or Bailey. 

In Konsa's case he is 26 so has his best years ahead of him, his alternative is 30 year old Carlos. Carlos for me is still adapting, and will be starting to lose pace in another year or two. Makes far more sense to be willing to let Carlos leave (if the right offer came in) than Konsa. Throw in our highline, and the proposed clear daylight change in the offside rule, pace at the back is a must and Konsa has that.

Bailey you said it yourself! Who can we get for the same money or less to replace him, that we can be confident are an improvement? I can't think of anyone. 

Ramsey is one of our own. He is more than good enough for us. He is incredibly versatile. Cm, am, lm, rm anywhere across the midfield bar dm he can play.  His ball carrying from deep is the best in our squad. His only weakness for me is his concentration when defending can lapse, and his tackling needs improvement. Otherwise, he's got a bit of everything. Athleticism, passing, dribbling, press resistance, good finisher, hard worker. He's got his best years ahead of him. Not one good reason to sell unless a 'stupid' money bid is made. And I mean more than 60 - 70 million.

With McGinn if the summer arrives and a 50 million bid comes in we have to consider it. Simply because he'll be 30 with a game that relies on his energy levels, robustness, and ability to work box to box. All this diminishes once one passes 30. He is highly likely to diminish as a player come 32, 33, so cashing in while we can isn't necessarily a bad thing. Having said that as long as he's good enough I'd love for him to stay a Villa player.

[burchy]

3 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

Bailey you said it yourself! Who can we get for the same money or less to replace him, that we can be confident are an improvement? I can't think of anyone. 

Johan Bakayoko?

[burchy]

I’d like us to box a bit clever. Bin off Donk and Chambers and get someone in that can cover DM/CB/RB well (Geertruida).

Even if we pay them 75k we’d be quids in as Donk and Chambers are on about 140k combined. 

[MSvillain]

34 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

You say this as if it's totally out choice. Players have contracts with end dates. The only reason we would discuss selling a player we see as key is because said contract has 2 years left. As this is the last point you can get maximum market value for the player. When the player has one year left you sell at a discount from the previous year or you keep the player for the season and let them go for free. 

Now if we make an assumption Luiz would only sign a contract extension after we qualify for CL then the club have a decision to make this summer and then next summer. This is why it "makes sense" to the club. They will know Luiz' position.

I think the fact he only signed a 3 year extension and not a 4 or 5 year one is a bit telling to me. Martinez, Watkins etc.. all signed 5 year deals which is fully committed. The 3 year deal was a wait and see contract. 

He was rotting on the bench under Gerrard....

[Pongo Waring]

30 minutes ago, burchy said:

I’d like us to box a bit clever. Bin off Donk and Chambers and get someone in that can cover DM/CB/RB well (Geertruida).

Even if we pay them 75k we’d be quids in as Donk and Chambers are on about 140k combined. 

We can sign two talented players to replace these with. Dont need to be the finished articles. The New Douglas Luiz and Konsa please.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Pongo Waring

[CVByrne]

15 minutes ago, MSvillain said:

He was rotting on the bench under Gerrard....

Revisionist history. He was a regular starter under Gerrard. The only time he wasn't was at the start of last season while the transfer window was still open. By all accounts he was leaving and Dendoncker was signed as his replacement.

The moment the window shut and he was still here he started and played full 90mins against City. As bad as Gerrard was as a coach, not picking a player who has their future up in the air in the final weeks of the window makes sense. 

Also he was competing with JJ and McGinn for one of the 8 spots in that team at the time too. JJ was out best player and wasn't going to be dropped and McGinn was our new captain.

Even then, I wouldn't say Luiz is better than either of them in the current team all three for me are outstanding footballers who offer different things to the team. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by CVByrne

[Steero113]

1 hour ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Ramsey, McGinn and Konsa are currently untouchables for me as well in honestly.

Ramsey is our most valuable asset lol, he's in a category above untouchable for me. Arguably he is everything the club stands for. 

[Lord Willard]

The higher we are in the table the more our squad players prices increase. It’s what all the top clubs do. The mid table teams are more likely to buy squad players off plus at 4th than in 12th. 

[villa89]

55 minutes ago, burchy said:

I’d like us to box a bit clever. Bin off Donk and Chambers and get someone in that can cover DM/CB/RB well (Geertruida).

Who's going to want to sign them and they aren't going to leave for a wage cut. 

[DakotaVilla]

Are we the only fan base that constantly talks about trying to sell some of our best players? It’s maddening. 

[meregreen]

1 minute ago, DakotaVilla said:

Are we the only fan base that constantly talks about trying to sell some of our best players? It’s maddening. 

Actually, the game has a history of top clubs selling their best players. Ronaldo, Keegan, Rush, Cole, Gascoigne, Lineker, De Bruyne etc. we’re all sold by top clubs for good money. It’s what you do with that money, that counts.

[nick76]

5 minutes ago, meregreen said:

Actually, the game has a history of top clubs selling their best players. Ronaldo, Keegan, Rush, Cole, Gascoigne, Lineker, De Bruyne etc. we’re all sold by top clubs for good money. It’s what you do with that money, that counts.

Yeah but some in our fan base talk about it constantly and completely in a defeatist attitude.  Our players are continuing to sign new contracts…I mean the last one some were fretting about was Ollie and then he signed a contract, now it’s Dougie’s turn again to be fretted about.  We are in a great place now and the club are on the rise so surely no better time for us as fans to be optimistic that players want to stick around.  We aren’t in the same position as when Jack wanted to leave, so while it’s possible somebody might still leave I think there is more chance that players will sign extensions when they come up.

[duke313]

1 minute ago, nick76 said:

Yeah but some in our fan base talk about it constantly and completely in a defeatist attitude.  Our players are continuing to sign new contracts…I mean the last one some were fretting about was Ollie and then he signed a contract, now it’s Dougie’s turn again to be fretted about.  We are in a great place now and the club are on the rise so surely no better time for us as fans to be optimistic that players want to stick around.  We aren’t in the same position as when Jack wanted to leave, so while it’s possible somebody might still leave I think there is more chance that players will sign extensions when they come up.

Selling any players to our direct rivals will set us back, and that's exactly what the Scum 6 clubs want.

[El-Reacho]

Selling Ramsey would send a pretty strong message to our academy that it is essentially a separate money making enterprise for the club rather than training young players to play for Aston Villa. As important as it is that the club raise money, young players have to see some pathway to playing for the first team. Can't be great for the culture of the academy knowing you're only there to be trained up to be flogged for FFP reasons.

Ramsey playing for the first team as well as the international team shows academy players that it can be done but also the standards required to make it at Villa these days.

[DJBOB]

It's not really about selling all our best players but we have to have a level of future planning. Part of what has **** over Villa for so long is dumping everything in the moment and not thinking about things 2-5 years down the line.

It's how we shoveled huge contracts on midtier players and then let our valuable players go for comparably nothing under MON. Barry, Milner and Young sold to our rivals for 60M combined. Delph snaking us out for 10M at the beginning of the season and dooming us to relegation. Probably the one decent deal we made was Benteke but we almost let Grealish go for next to nothing if Levy wasn't such a prick.

Unai and team came in and immediately sold Danny Ings - much to the consternation of a lot of fans and Ings looks as over the hill as can be at West Ham. Everyone was up in arms about not re-signing Ashley Young but no one would take him back now. Lots of people were complaining about letting all our youngsters go for FPP but only Jaden would get realistic starts for us this year and look how well he's doing in the Championship - and we have control over his future!

There's this naive rosy bit about recreating the United youngsters in the 90s and playing with our academy players and etc etc

How many academy players are in the starting XI for City? 1 or 2

How many academy players are in the starting XI for Arsenal? 1 or 2

The only place that really works is Barcelona but they're renowned for their academy.

So, no - we definitely should not sell at the first phone call to our rivals - but we definitely need to identify what to do with our valuable players, when we should sell them to get the highest return to re-invest in the club, and plan for being in the UCL for 2-5 years to come and not hold onto every asset until they force a move or have been so devalued they get picked off for nothing.

As @CVByrne said - Watkins, Martinez, McGinn, Konsa, and JJ have all signed 4-5 year deals. We hold onto their value at their highest points for the next 3 years at the minimum while retaining the ability to still sell them in their peak years should monstrous valuations come in from some fool willing to buy 100M+.

Bailey, Luiz, Kamara, Digne, Cash are all going to be questions over the summer because of their remaining contracts. Important players the lot of them but this is how we maintain UCL and getting into title fights - by future planning and not burying our heads in the sand thinking we can keep every player and we'll also keep our academy players too.

[Teale's 'tache]

I'll be very interested to see how we approach the upcoming window, a lot may still depend on how we do in the fixtures leading up to January, and where we find ourselves in the table.

There will be a temptation to go out and try to take advantage of a lofty league position and try to add some real quality while the going is good, though January is often not the optimum time to make those kinds of signings, teams don't like losing quality players mid-season so it can be difficult. Also going big in January would have a knock-on effect for the summer window when more quality may be available, so it's not a straightforward decision to go this route.

I can see the argument for no incomings at all, if we don't see anything available that would improve us on terms we like, then we have a decent and practically full squad with some good players coming back from injury. Yes, there are a few gaps, but we've managed admirably so far, and making signings for the sake of it rarely ends well.

I don't think we'll be signing 5 or 6, when Mings and Buendia are back fit next Summer there really is little room left in the squad without some outgoings, there are a few we'd like to move on I think and January can be an opportunity to take advantage of others desperation in that regard, though I don't see the likes of Luton, Burnley, Everton, etc. chucking a load of money at us for our fringe players. We have to be careful not to leave ourselves short with so many games left to go as well.

I think 1 or 2 most likely, we need to complement what we have that is working right now. As others have said, a right-sided defender is probably the most likely position we are looking at, to rotate with Cash, though possibly with different characteristics to give Emery another option.

I'm sure we are tracking plenty of players, but as always comes down to what is available and is at a cost we agree with. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few academy-type signings, looking to the future is an important part of any transfer strategy. 

[desensitized43]

2 hours ago, El-Reacho said:

Selling Ramsey would send a pretty strong message to our academy that it is essentially a separate money making enterprise for the club rather than training young players to play for Aston Villa. As important as it is that the club raise money, young players have to see some pathway to playing for the first team. Can't be great for the culture of the academy knowing you're only there to be trained up to be flogged for FFP reasons.

Ramsey playing for the first team as well as the international team shows academy players that it can be done but also the standards required to make it at Villa these days.

I don't want Ramsey sold but I definitely don't agree it sends the message you think it does.

Aaron Ramsey, Archer and Philogene have been sold but they all went to good clubs and are all playing pretty well. It's really rare to get one club players and the other lads will look at that in the academy and see success stories. They're players that were trained here, loaned out, got time in the first team and ultimately left to play first team football at good clubs. What's the problem there? They're all young and their stories with us might not be over.

Jacob Ramsey is a different case as I no longer see him as a youth player. He's a first team player now.

[skarroki]

4 hours ago, CVByrne said:

You say this as if it's totally out choice. Players have contracts with end dates. The only reason we would discuss selling a player we see as key is because said contract has 2 years left. As this is the last point you can get maximum market value for the player. When the player has one year left you sell at a discount from the previous year or you keep the player for the season and let them go for free. 

Now if we make an assumption Luiz would only sign a contract extension after we qualify for CL then the club have a decision to make this summer and then next summer. This is why it "makes sense" to the club. They will know Luiz' position.

I think the fact he only signed a 3 year extension and not a 4 or 5 year one is a bit telling to me. Martinez, Watkins etc.. all signed 5 year deals which is fully committed. The 3 year deal was a wait and see contract. 

I think looking at 3 years with our current knowledge looks wait and see. I don't think that was his thought process in the way this insinuates. It looked like he'd have more of a role at a club performing much better than we were and we refused to let him leave and then also didn't play him. Anyone in that scenario would be mad to double down and fully commit to the project. 

I'm not entirely sure I could speculate what his thinking was, but 3 year extension at a club near the bottom of the league with a clueless manager who isn't playing you - that is a hell of a commitment. Especially after a situation where others in the professional could have stank the place out and gone to that Arsenal team flying at the top of the league instead. 

My assumption would be that the Arsenal contract was all drawn out between his agent and Edu, then we refused to sell, he's threatening to kick up a stink when he's not been sold and not playing. Then we agree to match the deal Arsenal offered him if he extends, but his agent knocks a couple years off the deal to make it more favourable for him. Even if there were no assurances given by anyone I'm sure they both were well aware Gerrard was a bad result from leaving and the club would be going all out for a dramatic improvement. 

[CVByrne]

4 hours ago, Steero113 said:

Ramsey is our most valuable asset lol, he's in a category above untouchable for me. Arguably he is everything the club stands for. 

I think in 12 months time there will be no question that he's our best player. I think he has the all round game and is a goal scorer. In this team he will be superb