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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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It’s funny, we’re still one point worse off than we were last season with the same fixtures (I’m not including the Burnley win).

We can rectify that and improve on last season’s equivalent fixtures in three of the next four league matches.

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Beat Wolves and it's genuinely been a brilliant start. Would be 18 points from first 8 so over the two point per game formula which would certainly get us top 4.

Also have to factor in just playing three home games so far. Man. United played four as have Brighton and Newcastle. Man. United are somehow at home next weekend aswell so no idea how the fixture schedule came to that.

Big opportunity after the October break with West Ham, Luton and Fulham all to come to VP.

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3 hours ago, Mark Albrighton said:

It’s funny, we’re still one point worse off than we were last season with the same fixtures (I’m not including the Burnley win).

We can rectify that and improve on last season’s equivalent fixtures in three of the next four league matches.

We are around 2 points per game under Emery. Comparing fixtures where Emery was in charge last season with the same fixtures this season, I would expect about the same number of points. So far we have only played the Everton fixture from the Gerrard area, the more fixtures from Gerrard’s time in charge the better this season will look.

It could be useful to track:

Gerrard vs Emery (I expect us to be at least 10 points better off)

Last season Emery vs This season Emery (Happy if we match number of points from last season.)

Danks vs Emery (a home win against Brentford will make it a tie.)

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6 minutes ago, viivvaa66 said:

We are around 2 points per game under Emery. Comparing fixtures where Emery was in charge last season with the same fixtures this season, I would expect about the same number of points. So far we have only played the Everton fixture from the Gerrard area, the more fixtures from Gerrard’s time in charge the better this season will look.

It could be useful to track:

Gerrard vs Emery (I expect us to be at least 10 points better off)

Last season Emery vs This season Emery (Happy if we match number of points from last season.)

Danks vs Emery (a home win against Brentford will make it a tie.)

We are exactly 2 points per game with Emery, rather pleasingly but hopefully that increases next week.

Yes, the points we lost under Gerrard are indeed the points we have the best chance of improving on - away games like Palace, Forest, Bournemouth, Fulham…home games against West Ham and Chelsea, a lot of scope for improvement. One point from a possible 18 there, would be wanting us to target double figures at least. 

Then there’s the relegated clubs v promoted clubs thing. Not a fan of comparing our result against Leicester last season to what we ultimately do against Sheffield United this season. But as a collective it’s a bit more tolerable. We picked up 13 points from the sides who ultimately went down. Not bad, but room for a bit of improvement to aim for against the promoted sides. 

Emery does have a tough ask of matching what he did in the like for like games. There’s not many results which I look at and think “Damm that was a bad result”. Looking back at his results, really only the Wolves games stand out as bad with room for improvement.

He improves on those, he improves the results on the Gerrard games, then we have a little leeway with the points tally in case doing the double over Spurs isn’t achieved this season like it was last season.

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We have a pretty favourable run of fixtures coming up. Wolves, West Ham, Luton, Forest & Fulham. The Villa we're used to would normally piss these fixtures away and we'd come out the other end frustrated that we've missed a big opportunity to rack up some decent points. If we're wanting to really cement ourselves in the conversation for top 6 and higher, we need to keep our foot on the gas in that stretch and shake off our old habits. Thus far, we've won the fixtures that we've been expected to win, so I'm confident that we have it in us to keep it going. 

Win the games you're expected to win, and pull off a couple of "shock" results and that puts us right up there. We will have shit results this season, as everyone will (look at City today), but if we can get some general consistency over the season, we could be in for a very fun one.

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It’s tricky this high up.  Winning games is standard and doesn’t necessarily move you up places, whereas lose one and you fall down the league quickly. 
 

We have just got to keep plugging away, maintain 2 PPG if possible and see where that takes us.

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20 minutes ago, ender4 said:

It’s tricky this high up.  Winning games is standard and doesn’t necessarily move you up places, whereas lose one and you fall down the league quickly. 
 

We have just got to keep plugging away, maintain 2 PPG if possible and see where that takes us.

Feels like the pace has been pretty blistering so far at the top; Spurs and Arsenal both unbeaten after 7 and there seem to have been fewer draws (possibly? I haven't done the research) meaning more points overall, eg City, Utd, Brighton, Newcastle and ourselves all haven't drawn yet and no draws from today's fixtures. 

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5 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Feels like the pace has been pretty blistering so far at the top; Spurs and Arsenal both unbeaten after 7 and there seem to have been fewer draws (possibly? I haven't done the research) meaning more points overall, eg City, Utd, Brighton, Newcastle and ourselves all haven't drawn yet and no draws from today's fixtures. 

Yes it feels like it going to be really high points totals to be in the top 4-6 this season.

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Honestly if it weren't for City, it'd probably be a 5/6 way title race and super exciting. Instead we have to fight it out for the 4th/5th place trophy. Which of course is awesome for a team like us, but this league could be so much more excited if there wasn't 1 team just blatantly (and unfairly) stronger than the rest.

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get excited if you want..... you have my permission 🤣

I'll hold out until nearer christmas personally to see what our average PPG is, before hoping for 5th which is what the CL is likely to be this year.

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2 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

Still way to early days. Home we are excellent away not good

Wolves away we have been done very shit over the years

Game means more for Wolves than it does for us.

It's their cup final whilst for us Wolves is just a Crystal Palace game.

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6 minutes ago, Pinebro said:

Game means more for Wolves than it does for us.

It's their cup final whilst for us Wolves is just a Crystal Palace game.

I disagree totally with that . They probably take more joy in beating us than we do them , but it’s a local Derby and for many of us Villa fans we share towns with the dingles. We seem to never turn up at their place the last few seasons and it pisses me off that we get out battled and found wanting when we go there. 

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With mings and the others fit I’d say we’d have a bettors chance of making top 4 but unfortunately those injuries have cost us massively which you wouldn’t think I looking at table. Top 6 is the aim but that will take done doing because of said injuries. 

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2 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

Still way to early days. Home we are excellent away not good

Wolves away we have been done very shit over the years

We won 2/4 away. 6 points from Newcastle, Burnley, Liverpool and Chelsea is not bad at all.

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