zak Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 29 minutes ago, MSvillain said: Updated view from Opta but seems to change by the minute: thanks, was looking for this earlier so currently we have a 77.7% chance of being in the champions league next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lochheads twin Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 The Spurs result at Fulham was a real bonus for us. Before yesterdays kickoff, I was settling for a draw, given the injuries, loss of SJM and our general record at the 'Ammers. 70 points would be a good target, a big achievement for us and also a Villa record in the Prem era. That means we need another 14 points. As ever the home matches are key. If we can beat the Wolves, Brentford & Bournemouth, that means we just need to get 5 points from Chelsea at home, Palace and Brighton. Anything from Arsenal, Citeh & Liverpool will be a bonus. Obviously the English clubs, securing the 5 places is very important. It's a strange feeling being interested in the results of some of these clubs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beasley14 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 6 hours ago, JPAngel said: A quick update from me, my PPG projections and the projections based on corresponding results last season. Our last result was consistent with last season so we're moving along nicely whereas Spurs projection has taken a hit as they won at Craven Cottage last season. This also sees their PPG take a hit with them now projected to finish on 71 points and Villa finishing two points clear on 73 points. I think people are giving Man Utd a little too much credit at the moment. Their current PPG average for the season is 1.68 which would see them finish on 63 points - a full ten points behind our projection. To overtake us (not taking the massive goal difference swing into account) they'd need a PPG average of 2.68. I know football can't be boiled down to mere projections but, for us to finish outside the top 5, it would require us to embark on a run of form that would be Emery's worst in his Villa career as well as Man Utd hitting a level of form that they haven't achieved all season. It feels like a coin toss as to whether we'll finish 4th or 5th but I'm pretty confident 5th will be enough for CL football this year based on the recent European draws. We've got this. Love the detail and it does give context and confidence. Fingers crossed it all tracks along nicely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 @JPAngel doing McGrath's work as ever. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 I’ve seen plenty of talk in the media and online re Emerys time at Arsenal during the crunch run in then. It’s pretty foolish really. I mean just look at any other team he’s managed or even us last season. We picked up 17 points in our last 9 in fixtures that are similar in difficulty. Forest (H) = Brentford (H) - 3 Newcastle (H) = Liverpool (H) - 3 Brentford (A) = Brighton (A) - 1 Fulham (H) = Bournemouth (H) - 3 Man Utd (A) = Arsenal (A) - 0 Wolves (A) = Wolves (H) - 0 Spurs (H) = Chelsea (H) - 3 Liverpool (A) = Man City (A) - 1 Brighton (H) = Palace (A) - 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
troon_villan Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 7 hours ago, Stevo985 said: These posts give me an erection @JAMAICAN-VILLAN have a word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 (edited) 47 minutes ago, troon_villan said: @JAMAICAN-VILLAN have a word TwoGirlsOneCup Edited March 19 by JAMAICAN-VILLAN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 11 hours ago, RichW said: Intrigued to see how Spurs do away to West Ham compared to how we did yesterday. If West Ham do go and beat Spurs then it will make the draw we got yesterday an even better result I think. West Ham won't have any Europe mid-week either. West Ham did a nice job on them before xmas. Were a goal down and still won and think they scored off a set piece so they will bombard Vicario with endless corners right under the crossbar and he's been vulnerable all season dealing with them. I think they'll score at least twice again so just depends on how they do against Spurs defending but it's a Moyes team so they'll just sit in. Hopefully them and Chelsea don't lose as have a feeling Spurs will win at Newcastle this year so the fewer away wins they get in the run in the better as that will pile on the pressure for their home games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sulberto21 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 A nine match winning run to end the season would be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaJ100 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 34 minutes ago, Sulberto21 said: A nine match winning run to end the season would be nice. It's crazy to think that even that probably wouldn't be enough for the title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaJ100 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 4 hours ago, beasley14 said: Love the detail and it does give context and confidence. Fingers crossed it all tracks along nicely That 'last season results' line is giving me anxiety. To drop to 1ppg from here would be such a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 I think the gods of the 'traditional big six' have already smited us, repeatedly and excessively, having dished out x3 ACLs and numerous other injuries that won't go away - yet here we are still in 4th. So to go down to 1ppg from here, just doesn't feel in the script. And spring is here, we've had some great springs in recent years, please McGrath let us have another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 9 hours ago, VillaChris said: West Ham did a nice job on them before xmas. Were a goal down and still won and think they scored off a set piece so they will bombard Vicario with endless corners right under the crossbar and he's been vulnerable all season dealing with them. I think they'll score at least twice again so just depends on how they do against Spurs defending but it's a Moyes team so they'll just sit in. Hopefully them and Chelsea don't lose as have a feeling Spurs will win at Newcastle this year so the fewer away wins they get in the run in the better as that will pile on the pressure for their home games. I would imagine Luton and Forest will also be doing this, best way to get at them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPAngel Posted March 19 VT Supporter Share Posted March 19 (edited) 7 hours ago, VillaJ100 said: That 'last season results' line is giving me anxiety. To drop to 1ppg from here would be such a shame. Hopefully this cheers you up: Three of the upcoming games within the "last season's corresponding fixtures" line were managed by Gerrard - all of which were defeats. The games were Arsenal (A), Chelsea (H) and Palace (A). Edited March 19 by JPAngel 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 9 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said: TwoGirlsOneCup @Kiwivillan only fellow filthers know about this word... thanks for identifying 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beasley14 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 5 minutes ago, JPAngel said: Hopefully this cheers you up: Three of the upcoming games within the "last season's corresponding fixtures" line were managed by Gerrard - all of which were defeats. That does a little. My slight concern is our ppg is going down slightly at the moment and we have the hardest run in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveAV1 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 7 hours ago, VillaJ100 said: It's crazy to think that even that probably wouldn't be enough for the title “Probably”, you say but not definitely, so we could win the league then!!???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post omariqy Posted March 19 Popular Post Share Posted March 19 12 minutes ago, beasley14 said: That does a little. My slight concern is our ppg is going down slightly at the moment and we have the hardest run in. Even if we got 1 ppg a game. United still need to get 19 points from 10 games. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 16 minutes ago, omariqy said: Even if we got 1 ppg a game. United still need to get 19 points from 10 games. A good way to look at is United need 10 points more than us come the end of the season, if we get 12, then need 22. I just can't see them catching us if they need anything more than 20+ points. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveAV1 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 3 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said: @Kiwivillan only fellow filthers know about this word... thanks for identifying Filthers? You’ll need to explain this one to me too mate!!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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