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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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3 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

we are averaging 2 PPG over Emery's tenure in the PL, but our last 6 PL games we are averaging 1.33 PPG.

Hopefully we can get back to 1.75 or 2 PPG over the next few games.

1.33 ppg is the lowest average we've hit over a 3 game+ period. So even our worst form since the beginning of May last season if we kept that form we'd get 66 points this season

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6 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

1.33 ppg is the lowest average we've hit over a 3 game+ period. So even our worst form since the beginning of May last season if we kept that form we'd get 66 points this season

We probably need another 25 points from 15 games to guarantee a top 4 place. Should be doable on good form.

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20 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

1.33 ppg is the lowest average we've hit over a 3 game+ period. So even our worst form since the beginning of May last season if we kept that form we'd get 66 points this season

yep, this is what i have on my tracker, from today.

 

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For reference, the next game week (GW 24), is the game week last season where we went on a run of 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses (26/30 points available).

also for reference, we are currently 18 points ahead of where we were last season (46 v 28), for the exact same game week.

Edited by MaVilla
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1 hour ago, foreveryoung said:

We need to ignore 5th, be a bit nore positive and go for 4th at least. Man U is as good as a 6 pointer next week so we need to win that game for a good chance to stay in the top 4 come the end of the season. An obviously to shut up all the pundits when we actually finish 4th!

It would be great to win but I think a draw would hurt them more than us. They’ll be coming for the win so hopefully that plays in to our hands.

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3 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

It would be great to win but I think a draw would hurt them more than us. They’ll be coming for the win so hopefully that plays in to our hands.

We have got to bottle up Garnacho. He's becoming their Gordon. I wish we had someone like Digne in RB -- stocky and aggressive. 

Edited by Marka Ragnos
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The next four are crucial -- or putting it more optimistically, a great opportunity. United, Fulham, Forest and Luton. Have to be targeting 10 points there minimum. If we do that, assuming we draw with United, and assuming City beat United, we'd be 11 points ahead of them with 11 games to go.

At that point top five would be looking pretty healthy, and attention turns to the Spurs game to see who can take first advantage in the race for top four.

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17 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

It would be great to win but I think a draw would hurt them more than us. They’ll be coming for the win so hopefully that plays in to our hands.

Your thinking of Man U chap, it's Tottenham we need to worry about, not game by game.picking up few draws. We need to keep Tottenham below us that's the priority, so a win is best for us alround.

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28 minutes ago, jayEm said:

The next four are crucial -- or putting it more optimistically, a great opportunity. United, Fulham, Forest and Luton. Have to be targeting 10 points there minimum. If we do that, assuming we draw with United, and assuming City beat United, we'd be 11 points ahead of them with 11 games to go.

At that point top five would be looking pretty healthy, and attention turns to the Spurs game to see who can take first advantage in the race for top four.

No disrespect meant, but I always wonder what that sort of comment means. Can we actually "target" 10 points minimum? Don't we want to go for 12 points? 😉

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5 minutes ago, Marka Ragnos said:

No disrespect meant, but I always wonder what that sort of comment means. Can we actually "target" 10 points minimum? Don't we want to go for 12 points? 😉

Aha fair comment. Yes you target winning every game. Guess I mean we should see 10 points from the next four as a 'good' outcome.

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27 minutes ago, Captain_Townsend said:

I do not fear any team in this league.

8 wins should be our target. We can certainly do that...and more. 

Fear? No. Respect? Maybe. Acknowledgement that they can beat us? Yes. I feel that with Newcastle, and I'm glad AF we're done with them, tbh. I think they manhandled us both games, and we didn't have good answers. They're pretty rough and sneaky in terms yellow cards, too.I actually have less of that emotion with Man City and Arsenal and Liverpool.

Edited by Marka Ragnos
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3 minutes ago, maqroll said:

Does Toon and Man Utd both crashing out of CL definitely mean 5th place is no longer a CL spot?

No, it makes it less likely, yet it's still pretty likely - something like 70% chance according to previous posters. All depends on how other English teams do, including us, in the remainder of their European campaigns.

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4 minutes ago, maqroll said:

Does Toon and Man Utd both crashing out of CL definitely mean 5th place is no longer a CL spot?

I don’t think it means it’s definitely not happening, I think it depends on how the remaining teams do. So if an English team does very well in the CL and Europa that could add points to the English total and mean the PL gets the extra spot.

It includes our own performances in the EUCL as that will count for the points total too.

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Regarding Man u. Martinez is the rock of their team and he's got a bad injury so very unlikely to be playing against us if we want to finish 4th we need to beat them and we owe them one.

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2 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

Honestly I keep doing the maths and the slump we’d have to hit to finish outside the top 5 is incredibly unlikely. 
 

It would almost certainly require the worst form of Emery’s managerial career for the next 15 games

Jokes aside what is your working on the maths here? 
 

If Utd beat us next week they are 5 points behind with 14 games to go. Seems like plenty left to play for to me. 

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